So, I’m not going to lie to you and say that this is going to be our next great series of smears. Admittedly, we do lose focus and go back and forth between subject, or worse yet, abandon one right when it starts to get momentum. But at the very least, we’re going to give this one a try.

If you’re a sports fan, you’re a Monday morning quarterback. Plain and simple. If you don’t think you can do the manager/coach/GM/owner’s job better than him, you’re not a real fan. There’s nothing wrong with that. You can call yourself a passive fan… or an observer. But every real fan thinks he can do it better, including Shaun and myself.

Can we? Maybe. But probably not quite to the level we think. That said, it should be universally agreed that certain strategies/moves/personnel decisions should be grounds for immediate firing. Period, end of story. Today, we start with the first.

The Offense: The Prevent Defense

The Concept: A football team deploys 7 or 8 defensive backs to try and keep their opponents from driving down the field in the final two minutes of a half. Theoretically, the offense will be throwing because time is limited. Therefore, they will be playing at least 4 wide receivers. So it makes perfect sense to throw every cornerback and safety on your roster onto the field to defend all those receivers, right? Actually, the only thing a prevent defense has ever prevented is winning. What you are telling your opponent when you line up in a prevent defense is that you want them to score. You don’t want to win. For whatever reason, you are handing them the game, or at the very least, letting them score on that drive.

Why it’s a Fireable Offense: It has never worked. Not once, in the history of football, can anyone point to “successful execution of a prevent defense” as the reason for them winning a game. Therefore, there are no logical grounds to ever deploy it.

Why it Doesn’t Work: There are two main reasons. The first one is, you are virtually guaranteeing that at least two, if not up to four, of the best players on your defense will not be on the field during the game’s most critical times. Most teams during regular downs and times will play about 4 defensive lineman, 3 linebackers, and 4 defensive backs on defense. Their 11 best defensive players, if you will. In a prevent defense, teams will play up to 8 defensive backs (though not usually more than 7) and only 3 defensive lineman. Done. That means, in the most extreme of examples, one of your best defensive linemen and your three best linebackers are not on the field in favor of up to 4 defensive backs that are not good enough to crack the starting line up. Let me repeat this. During the game’s most critical time, one third of your defensive team is made up of players that are not your best. Doesn’t that sound idiotic? But wait, there’s more. The second reason is, it’s virtually impossible to generate any pressure on the quarterback from a prevent defense. Essentially, you are rushing three guys against a five man offensive line and a half back who will hang out next to his QB for several seconds just in case the unlikely event occurs that a rusher gets through the line. He will then chip block the rusher, delaying him from reaching the quarterback long enough for at least one offensivel lineman to recover and reengage blocking him. The back can then leave the backfield, turning himself into a receiving option as well. In the meantime, the quarterback has had up to 10 seconds to find an open receiver, scramble for yards and get out of bounds, or wing the ball into the bench to stop the clock in the unlikely event that the pass defense comprised mostly of non-first stringers has managed to sufficently cover all the receivers. Are you telling me that a quarterback who plays on the professional level cannot find an open receiver in ten seconds? If you are, you’re wrong… and most likely brain damaged. If a team needs to drive, say, 70 yards in the final two minutes of a game, and can average just ten yards for every two plays (remember, the clock stops on an incompletion), and has even one of their three timeouts left, they can do that in 140 seconds. Just over 2 minutes. If all they needed was a field goal, game over. And the reality is, every team can accomplish that standard in way less time with way greater yards per play.

The Latest Offender: The new coach of my beloved Rams, Jeff Fisher. Just judging by how close the Rams kept the high powered Lions shows that they are indeed improved under Fisher. However, he should be fired. The Rams could have won after taking a 3 point lead with less than 2 minutes left in the fourth quarter, but Fisher deployed a prevent defense, allowing the Lions to drive 80 yards in 1 minute and 50 seconds for the winning touchdown. The icing on the cake, the only other time the Lions were able to successfully march down the field ALL GAME against a young and untested Rams defense was at the end of the first half when the Rams were in, you guessed it, a prevent defense.

To conclude, a prevent defense is, in essence, a concession. What owner in their right mind would ever employ a coach who concedes victory? If the answer is “not a single one,” then Jeff Fisher should be fired because he essentially conceded the Lions the game from a position of victory. Could the Lions have driven down the field against a conventional defense? Maybe. Sure. But they handn’t done it all game. Why not sticks with what works.  Will Fisher be fired? Of course not. And he will probably improve the standard of the Rams’ play over the next couple of years as coach. But make no mistake, he’s not a winner. And here is your proof. And yes, I am a Rams fan and I am bitter.

Just to clear the air, we are going to be discussing guys who you might actually put on the bench in favor of another player. Obviously, if you have Megatron, there isn’t another receiver who you would consider starting ahead of him. But if you have these guys, and are considering someone else, stop considering.

1. Jeremy Maclin – He probably wasn’t in the top ten receivers off the board… or the top 20. And he’s probably not a guaranteed start every week. But he should be. He has a great rapport with Michael Vick, and as long as the fragile dynamo is healthy, Maclin is a top option. Throw in a dash of Cleveland as the opponent and it’s a lock.

2. Matt Ryan – If you have him, you probably watched the top quarterbacks fly off the board early in frustration. And you probably drafted a backup soon after; someone in the mold of a Jay Cutler or Ryan Fitzpatrick, in anticipation of having to play the matchups. Well, worry not. By the end of the season, his numbers and Tom Brady’s will be virtually indiscernable. You heard it here first… or second… whatever. Start him.

3. Greg Olsen – Steve Smith is still a stud, if an ailing one, at 33, but who else is there really? Plus, Cam loves his tight end. Plus, Tampa Bay sucks. Plus… uh… plus… uh, he looks like He Man! I wouldn’t be against 100+ receiving yards and a score. If you get that from your tight end whom you likely picked up from the scraps towards the end of your draft, you are sailing my friend. Sailing…

4. Donald Brown – He’s a bit of a mystery, but what isn’t a mystery is that he’s a good receiver out of the backfield. And what do rookie quarterbacks do a lot? If you said check down, you are not a moron. Indy’s week 1 matchup is not good, but nobody is really threatening DB for touches. And if you have one of the star backs that is either missing or limited in week one (AP, Ryan Matthews, Marshawn Lynch, MJD) you are probably debating between someone like Brown or another middling player for your flex spot. Stop debating and start him.

5. Danny Amendola – If you’re in a PPR league, this is a no brainer. The Rams are going to get crushed, so they will be throwing a lot against a suspect Lions secondary. Amendola is Bradford’s favorite target and probably their second-best offensive player behind Steven Jackson. He could get double digit receptions this game, and might even sneak into the end zone.

You’re probably asking yourself, does he have all these guys? Yes, he does. And he’s putting his money where his mouth is. So tune in Monday for either a tail between my legs soliloqy or victory gloat.

So as I sit here, staring at my as-of-yet untouched three finger pour of Glenfiddich, I’m finding myself eagerly anticipating my third and, again-as-of-this-moment, final fantasy football draft on Sunday. My first two have gone well. Approaching my third season from the first draft, I inherited a lousy team from an owner who clearly cared little and have managed to turn the team into a potential contender this season, not an easy task with 4 veteran keepers and 2 rookie keepers each year. All the good guys are already taken so you really have to be smart with your rookie picks. The second, Shaun’s league, I’m practically guaranteed to win this season thanks to some seriously brilliant drafting. This Sunday’s is always a crapshoot because it’s a start-from-scratch league. No keepers. My least favorite kind of league because it requires the least long term strategy, my biggest strength in fantasy football. So figure I will take an unsophisticated approach this time around, as I sip my sophisticated drink, and see what happens.

On to stuff that surprises me.

Yovanni Gallardo leads the National League in quality starts this year with an ERA not close to the league leaders. I would have been the last guy I would have guessed, not because he’s bad by any stretch… but his talent has always teased a bit more than it has dazzled.

Clint Eastwood appeared at the Republican National Convention. And it was ugly. Unless you’re a Democrat. Then it was just funny.

The National Hockey League looks headed for another lock out. They didn’t learn from the last one.

On to musings.

If the Rams go 2-14 again, will it cost Jeff Fisher his job?

Does the Clint Dempsey deadline day signing vault Tottenham back into Champions League contention? You bet it does.

I am also guilty of being over-exuberant, but having Adrian Gonzales, Josh Beckett and Carl Crawford did very little for the Red Sox this year. What on Earth made anyone think getting those three guys would do wonders for the Dodgers? Oh…right. The simple virtue that not having James Loney on the roster should have been a vast improvement.

Who were the 24 guys that were drafted ahead of Mike Trout? Better question yet, what were the scouts drinking that kept them from noticing the best player to come along since Mickey Mantle? Yeah, yeah, I know. He was still a first rounder so we knew he could be good. Good? Mickey Mantle!!!

I hate baseball.

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The college football season is officially underway, and I was quickly reminded of something…college football has gone crazy!!!!

The first thing that jumped out to me is a new rule regarding kickoffs.  The NCAA took a page from the NFL and moved the kickoff up five yards to reduce the number of kick returns, therefore removing a few violent collisions each game.  Great!  But then they go and do something crazy.  They change the kickoff touchback from the 20 yard line to the 25.  Brilliant, try to reduce the number of kick returns to assist in player safety, then make it worse for the kicking team give a touchback, making it more likely for really high kickoffs leading to even bigger hits.  Well done.

The SEC this year has added headsets to all their referees.  This will allow them to communicate with each other instead of having to huddle up to discuss penalties.  So what do they do in the first game?  Constantly huddle up and discuss penalties…success.

I know it hasn’t happened yet, but starting next year the Big East will feature Boise State, cause when I think of the East I think Boise.  Oh, and of course, for the second year in a row, the Big 12 will feature 10 teams and the Big 10 will feature 12 teams. 

Look at the bright side, at least they added a playoff system…in two years.

Stop this madness.  Why is Lance Armstrong in the news?  The 7 time Tour De France winner and Olympic gold medalist gave up the fight to keep his name clean today, which has resulted in all his wins being revoked.  A very sad turn in the Lance Armstrong story, but far from the end, and really, a decision that speaks poorly more on the USADA and all other associations that have administered drug tests to Lance Armstrong.

Lance Armstrong has passed an estimated 500 drug tests and failed a grand total of zero.  He retired a year and a half ago, but he has been under investigation since 1999.  For over a decade, he has been scrutinized and tested and accused of doping, but has never failed a drug test.  Not during his bout with testicular cancer, not during his 7 consecutive Tour De France wins, not ever. 

All that said, it is pretty hard to imagine a man could dominate the dirtiest sport in the world and be clean.  It is hard to believe a man can come back from cancer and become the greatest of all time.  Never has somebody come back from such a terrible disease and dominate a sport.  But dirty or not, you cannot look past all the good he did for cancer.

Lance Armstrong founded the Lance Armstrong Foundation, which released the famous yellow bracelets, Livestrong.  Since the start of his foundation, he has raised over a quarter of a billion dollars.  He has been a source of inspiration to those diagnosed with cancer all over the world.  So, even if he has doped, wasn’t it worth it?

You cannot tell the story of Lance Armstrong without discussing the doping allegations and being stripped of his titles, but don’t let it be the lasting view of the man.  Today, on sports radio and tv, you will hear people discuss his “admission” of guilt, but realize he is a man two and a half years into his retirement that just wants to have some peace, something the USADA was not ready to give him.  His foundation isn’t done, his story is not done, he will continue to be a positive influence on the world.  Sometimes in life, there are dilemmas where doing something of questionable ethics can change the world for the better.  So, regardless of what you did to accomplish all you did, I would like to say thank you Lance Armstrong, here is at least one place that will recognize you for the good you have done, not the mistakes you may have made.

It is far from new for a big club to get favoritism in the soccer world, but Chelsea  has taken it to a new level.  Branislav Ivanovic was given a red card in the Community Shield, which is a three match ban.  However, do to an odd rule put into place six years ago, he will serve none of them.  Well, that is not entirely true, he will serve the suspension for the Chelsea reserve squad, a squad he has never and will never play for.  He then goes out and scores the fourth goal in today’s match against Reading.  That goal is what hockey fans know as an empty net.  The first goal for the team was due to a penalty kick, the second by a keeper error allowing the ball to go into the net off his hands.  The third, and decisive goal, came as a result of a blatant fail by the referee to recognize an offside player who was at least two yards offside.  Arguably, all four goals should reasonably been avoided, pitiful.

What is in the water in the bay area?  First Melky and now Bartolo?  I thought BALCO was shut down.  Did they dump all their product into the bay area water system?  Maybe Melky can create a fake website blaming the water.

Am I the only one that is rooting for Roger Clemens to pitch in the majors this year?  Granted, my rooting interest may not be out of the best of intentions.  I really want Clemens to get a start for the Astros, then fail a drug test.  You know that would be the greatest karma the world has ever seen.

I was taking a look at the NFL schedule today and noticed something awesome.  The Philadelphia Eagles open their season in Cleveland, home of the Dawg Pound.  Will Vick prove old habits die hard and try to start some fights?  Just saying.

So, Augusta National has finally admitted its first female members. What a joyous occasion for civil rights and gender equality! Whoop de @#$%ing do… Seriously, it’s nice when a person or group which for years has been steeped in racism and misogyny finally sees the light, but it means very little. As long as institutions like Total Women and Curves, fitness centers available only to women, are allowed to exist, it’s pointless. It’s little more than a publicity stunt. As long as things like Black History Month are allowed to exist and society is force fed as much during the commercials of every single television show in February, it’s an exercise in futility. Can you imagine the backlash anyone would receive if they making 1/12th of the calendar White History Month?

Let’s make this very simple. All people should be equal. Men and women should be paid the same for the same work. Blacks, whites, and every race in between should be able to coexist harmoniously in all aspects of life. Gays should be allowed to marry (editor’s note: my opinion, and not reflective of anyone else’s), and intolerance of racism and discrimination in all aspects of life, not just sports, needs to be ratcheted up to unprecedented levels. Luis Suarez should have been banned the entirely of the EPL season last year for his racial abuse of Patrice Evra.

But we as a society are moving backwards. How else can you explain that a group of backwards good ole boys finally caving to societal pressure after decades of bigotry being treated with what amounts to celebration? It’s ridiculous.

Moving on, know what else is ridiculous? People are still talking about the Bobby Valentine nonsense in Boston. Do the players want him fired? Do they not? Are they lying about it? Is the sky blue? Know what the problem is in Boston? Because I do. They suck. Period, end of story. Whitey Herzog once famously said, paraphrased, give me good players and I’ll be a good manager. Give me bad players and I’ll be a bad manager.

Lastly, is it just me, or does some of the urgency to get a new deal for the NFL referees suddenly come from the not disastrous performance the replacement officials are doing? Look, I’m not an expert ref, but I know suckiness when I see it. NFL officials are terrible. The replacements, at least in the preseason so far, have been doing no worse than any of the regulars have done for years. I think that the media, owners, league, and fans expected there to be such calamitous reffing in the preseason that the league would do backflips trying to strike a new deal. But it hasn’t been that bad, and suddenly, at least in my opinion, the league has the power in the negotiations, not the officials.

Ok, one more tidbit. I’ve been waiting for ANYONE to print or broadcast it, but I haven’t seen it happen yet so I might as well come out with it. Would you like to know what the worst thing in the history of things was? Answer, NBC’s Olympic coverage. I have never seen worse coverage of anything in my life. I hope they go bankrupt. I am not exaggerating, you couldn’t have done a more poor job with a revered sporting institution that only comes around every four years if you had tried. NBC should be embarrassed, and pay everyone’s cable or dish bill for those two weeks.

I used to do a monthly column about stupidity in sports, but today, I would like to focus on stupidity with a sports fan.  Let me start with a question.  When you go to your car in the middle of the summer with it 100+ degrees outside, don’t you stare at your seat and seatbelt and immediately get bummed out cause you know they are gonna be hot as hell?  What about when you go to the local park with metal bleachers…don’t you know the bleacher seats are gonna be crazy hot?  Well, apparently not everyone has the same common sense.  A Dallas Cowboy fan is suing the Cowboys after burning her ass on a bench outside the stadium.  Yup, you heard right.  She claims to have received third degree burns and needed skin grafts on her rear end after sitting on a black marble bench.  The reason she blames the Cowboys…there were no signs alerting her that the seat might be hot.  Does Starbucks need to post signs that coffee might burn your tongue?  Do restaurants with an outside fire place need to post a sign that sticking your hand in the fire might hurt?  Do swimming pools need to post signs that if you stay under water for too long, you will drown?  Does Williams Sonoma need to post a sign that their kitchen knives can cut you if you drag the blade along your skin?  And how long do you have to sit on a hot bench to get third degree burns?  Wouldn’t you stand up after sitting on it and realizing it is really hot?  What is this world coming to?

 

As briefly hinted at in the first piece of your fantasy football guide to guaranteed winning, one of my biggest pet peeves in fantasy is that everyone just says, don’t draft a defense and kicker until the last two rounds. Why do they say this? Because everyone else says it, and much like most Mitt Romney supporters, they’re incapable of formulating independent thoughts. What, too far? Anyway, what’s ridiculous is that guys will draft third quarterbacks, retired wide receivers, an 8th running back, and any number of guys who will never ever be active, or at the very most, perhaps once as a bye week fill in, before they pick a defense or a kicker. Unless I’m missing something, the kicker and defense you pick in your draft are designed to be active in every week but one. Of course, things happen, like bad play and injuries. Defenses and kickers get dropped just like any other position. But isn’t a spot that is going to be filled week in and week out worthy of more than just a end-of-draft throw away pick? Trendy “fliers” in years past like Early Doucet, Chaz Shilens, Devin Aroshmadu and dozens more are consistently outscored by a decent kicker. Same things with blasts from the past, as this year, Randy Moss, Chad Johnson, Brandon Jacobs, and a load of others will get picked before most kickers and defenses, and will not accumulate anywhere near as many points. Isn’t it worth it to not wait until the end, rather, use an 11th or 12th rounder on a kicker and defense to ensure you get a decent one?

How to pick a kicker: Simple. Find a high scoring offense or a guy a with a long history of being accurate. Guys like Gostkowski, Hartley, Crosby, and Hansen figure to be premium producers. David Akers, Ryan Longwell, and Robbie Gould figure to be guys who are consistent, because throughout their careers, they’ve been accurate. Makes count. Misses hurt. Get guys who either make their kicks, or get lots of opportunities.

How not to pick a kicker: Just grabbing the hometown guy, especially, if the team sucks. Believe it or not, a lot of guys will take the kicker from their favorite team as a sort of homage. It’s weird, I know. It’s also carelessly idiotic. I’m a Rams fan. Sure, it would be easy to grab Greg Zeurlein, especially because indications are in camp he has enough leg to hit from 70. Then you look at the big picture, and the Rams might very well be the only team in NFL history to not score a point over an entire season. And that’s only a slight exaggeration. But the point is, even if Zeurlein is among the best kickers in the league, he will have among the fewest opportunities.

How to pick a defense: The 49rs figure to be one of the first defenses off the board this year, based on their excellent performance last season. That said, they don’t figure to cause nearly as many turnovers this season. They’re a known quantity. Look at takeaway numbers from last year, and ask yourself which of the defenses near the top of the list surprises you the most. For me, I will be looking at defenses like Texas and Arizona this year. Not all that heralded, but if you look closer, you have young, athletic units that play aggressively and get sacks and turnovers. As an added bonus, the Cards have Patrick Peterson returning kicks, and he’s potentially good for a half dozen return touchdowns next year.

How not to pick a defense: By ADP. Know how often the top ranked defense in the preseason has ended up being the top scoring defense in fantasy at the end of that season? Not recently. That’s simply just not how it works, and there’s way more to fantasy scoring for a defense than not giving up that many points.

Got it? Good. Now email us in 6 months and tell us how you dominated your league based on all this priceless advice.

Oh, get your mind out of the gutter. But seriously, who doesn’t? Not too long ago, fantasy relevant tight ends included Antonio Gates, Tony Gonzalez, Dallas Clark, Jason Witten, and… yeah. So ultimately what ended up happening was, somebody would reach, take Gates way to early and start a run, or everyone punted on tight end and four people ended up getting really good value for their pick late. The position entirely, however, has changed.

Positional Depth: B+. You actually have a couple guys out there in Gronk and Graham that are potentially worthy of second round picks, and a whole bunch of other guys who are performing fantasy wise at a WR2 or 3 level. If you end up with one of the premium guys in the second round, you are looking good. Even if you’re the 12th guy to pick a tight end, it’s not the end of the world. That said, pick right. This is going to be a key position this year.

Guys to Stay Away From: Tony Gonzalez is not getting any younger. His production is showing signs of dropping and, while he is still a good player, that doesn’t quit matter as much in fantasy. Another trendy pick is Colby Fleener. The Luck/Fleener tandem is appealing storywise, but a rookie tight end who is chasing passes from a rookie quarterback does not usually end up being a significant fantasy contributor.

Breakout Year: Jared Cook. The South Carolina product has big play ability as he showed on multiple occasions last year. And whether it’s Matt Hasselbeck or Jake Locker throwing to him, he can go get it. His numbers will be tempered slightly by the Chris Johnson oriented offense Tennessee runs, but he is primed for a big year. You heard it here first. Or second. Or last. Doesn’t mean it isn’t correct.

Tip to Remember: Past success IS an indicator of future success, even with quarterback changes, coaching changes, team changes. When a guy who isn’t getting too old has a history of solid play but ends up in a new situation, there is nothing to say he won’t benefit. Take the Redskins’ Fred Davis. Hard worker. Good hands. Good enough speed for respectable yards after catch numbers. And while RG3 IS a rookie, he’ll need a security blanket. And Davis is just the kind of mature veteran who will do what it takes to make sure his rookie signal caller has an outlet. 80 receptions, or even 90, is a very real possibility, as are 8 tds to go along with it. Also, don’t let the fact that Tom Brady has Gronk deter you from snagging Aaron Hernandez a bit later on in your draft. He’s not at Gronk’s level, but he is a very good player with good hands and good instincts. He will, barring injury, be a top 12 tight end.

Don’t Forget About: John Carlson. I honestly don’t know what all the fuss is about Kyle Rudolph. Apparently, the Vikings figured out he may not be anything beyond just a good role player, which would explain why the Vikes went out and got the uber talented Carlson, whom the Seahawks were idiotic to let go, even if they did replace him with Zach Miller. Also, if you are really really really looking to take a late flier on someone at this position, Michael Hoomanawanui on the Rams has all the tools to put up great numbers if he can stay healthy and the O line can keep Bradford off of the turf. Lance Kendricks is a prime example of a high draft pick by an incompetent regime and Hoomanawanui is better in every way… again, if he can stay healthy. Stay tuned for kickers and defense, which will be rolled into one article since I doubt anyone cares enough to read either.