Let me get this straight.  The three weakest spots on the team are right, short and starting pitcher.  The bullpen is incredibly deep, so losing Papelbon was no big deal.  You have a stud future closer ready to take the role in Daniel Bard.  So you will take the best hitting shortstop in the system and trade him for a closer, then trade an average right fielder and prospects for another average right fielder and, yup, a closer.  Then you will take that guy that was groomed to be a closer and make him a starter.  Another one of the three closers gets hurt, so that leaves the third closer, right?  No, you take a guy that is really good in middle relief and was huge as a spot starter all season last year, and make him the closer.  Meanwhile Roy Oswalt doesn’t have a contract, but you bring Vicente Padilla and Rich Hill in to compete to make the rotation.  They both fail, so you announce Felix Doubront the fourth starter.  Shortstop will be Mike Aviles and Nick Punto…two great bench utility guys.  If they were to keep Pedro Ciriaco, he would be maybe a game lower WAR than those two.  What is next?  They gonna trade Middlebrooks and Iglesias for a center fielder, first baseman, and another closer?  I am convinced the Red Sox are trying to re-create the pre-2004 fan base, weed out all the bandwagon jumpers, and repeatedly obliterate the hearts of every die hard Red Sox fan left.  Congrats….you have succeeded in one right here, let’s just resurrect The Babe and trade him to the Yankees so we can fund the American Idiot play in a Boston area theatre coming soon.

The Idiots on the Idiot Box

Yup, we are finally wrapping this up. I’ve run out of things that piss me off after this. Yeah… right. Anyway, when I was a kid, my dad called the television the Idiot Box. I’m sure he isn’t the first or only to use the term, but I can only assume he called it that because of all the idiotic sports shows that are on. Seriously. Whether the subject matter is lame, the host(s) are universally regarded as jackholes, or whatever it is, sports has more moronic shows on television than any other genre, and I’m including sitcoms in this.

The matter is made only more glaring by the fact that there are truly brilliant sports shows out there. Bryant Gumbel’s Real Sports is a terrific example. So is ESPN’s Outside the Lines, and the 30 for 30 series (hey, if we’re going to criticize them for the horrid mess they’ve made out of Sportscenter, and larrup them over the abundance of sheer garbage populating their afternoon time slots, we must also be prepared to praise them over their jobs well done… infrequent as they may be in recent years).

Okay, praising over. What the hell is up with Pardon the Interruption? Who thinks to themselves, Know what I want to do today? Listen to Tony Kornheiser and Michael Wilbon yell over each other in poorly informed opinions about stuff that has already been beaten to death in the media. What a grand idea that seems to be! Apparently, enough people think that for garbage like this to make it off the cutting room floor, or out of the focus group for that matter.

Rome is Burning… God, I can only wish… with him in it. Now don’t get me wrong, Jim Rome is quite knowledgable about a lot of sports, and relatively on course with many of his observations. But who the hell wants to watch what amounts to an AM radio personality yelling into the camera about things not nearly important enough in the large scheme of things to warrant elevated voice volume. The only thing that separates Rome from idiots like Sean Hannity and Rush Limbaugh who huff and puff their way through segments with vein popping intensity to cover up the fact that they actually do very little research for facts to back up their ludicrous statements, or deliberately take things out of context to further their impossibly extreme right wing propaganda, is the subject matter. Plain. And. Simple.

Best D*** Sports Show Period? Compared to what? Conceptually, having a celebrity known for his comedic aplomb be the moderator of sorts among a panel of actual persons of some importance in sports sounds flush with potential. Especially if it’s run in a sort of Stephen Colbert way, where 75% of the questions are intentionally stupid to elicit humor. Alas, talent like Colbert’s is rare. Equally alas, disasters like this turd on a set are common.

Folks, I’m not saying I have the answer to the perfect sports show. I’m just saying the answers are out there. The models for brilliance have been erected, and mentioned in the open of this smear. Too serious for you? Tired of hearing about quadruple amputees who overcome adversity to become tennis champions? Tired of hearing about decapitated bowlers who routinely bowl strikes with their severed heads? Fine! Have a listen to Bill Simmons’ excellent podcast, The B.S. Report. I’ll be the first to tell you, I am not in love with the guy’s writing, nor any team from the New England are, further turning me off from his writing (this particular excellent article notwithstanding), but he’s a funny dude.

There has to be someone who makes the decision to let all the crap get aired. That person needs a high five. To the back of the head. With a bat. And there have to be the voices of common sense that can actually do away with the rubbish, and give the people what the NEED from their sports television (and radio). But there aren’t. So, I nominate Shaun and me.

Shaun

 

AL

 

East: Rays

Central: Tigers

West: Rangers

Wild Card 1: Angels

Wild Card 2: Yankees

MVP: Albert Pujols

Cy Young: Jered Weaver

 

NL

 

East: Marlins

Central: Cardinals

West: Diamondbacks

Wild Card 1: Reds

Wild Card 2: Nationals

MVP: Michael Morse

Cy Young: Matt Latos

 

Torsten

 

AL

 

East: Tampa

Central: Detroit

West: Texas

Wild Card 1: Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, just slightly west of Buena Park about 15 minutes from Disneyland

Wild Card 2: Yankees

MVP: Yeonis Cespedes Miguel Cabrera

Cy Young: Dan Haren

 

NL

 

East: Miami

Central: St. Louis

West: San Francisco

Wild Card 1: @#$%ing Phillies

Wild Card 2: Dodgers

MVP: Hanley Ramirez

Cy Young: Clayton Kershaw

I love baseball prospect lists.  Who will be the stars of the future?  What names will be filling the All-Star ballots in a few years?  But the one problem I have with prospect lists, is they ignore the guys that fill out rosters.  The future fifth starters, the fourth outfielders, the utility infielders.  You know, who is gonna be the next Dave Roberts?  Who is a future Aaron Harang?  Is there a next Casey Blake?  And it is great if Jurickson Profar is the stud shortstop of 2014, who is the shortstop that will make his debut this season that we haven’t heard of?  I know Anthony Rendon, Will Middlebrooks, Bryce Harper, and Trevor Bauer, but who is going to be the next Brian Daubach?  Well, that is what this is.  I have chosen one under the radar prospect that I expect to make his major league debut this season.  Some more under the radar than others, some have been on the top of prospect lists past, but fallen off the radar, and are now close to finally making an impact.  So, without further ado, here are the guys.

 

Arizona Diamondbacks – A.J. Pollock – OF – Pollock missed a season due to injury in his three year pro career, so he is still in need of some seasoning, but he may make a mid-season jump up to Arizona as an emergency filler in the outfield.  Last year he led his league in runs and hits, has a very successful steals rate in the minors, but doesn’t have great speed.  He won’t light up any scoreboards, but could become a solid ball player and add serious depth down the stretch.

 

Atlanta Braves – J.J. Hoover – RHP – He is likely going to produce out of the bullpen by mid-season and be a spot starter.  He has a live fastball with movement.  His upside is a fourth starter, but will be able to make an impact for the Braves this season.

 

Baltimore Orioles – Ryan Flaherty – INF/OF – A former first round pick of the Cubs, Flaherty was selected in the Rule 5 draft by the Orioles.  The fact he was a Rule 5 selection, and the Roberts injury, assures him a spot on the opening day roster as a middle infield depth.  He can also play third and the outfield.

 

Boston Red Sox – Alex Wilson – RHP – He is far from the prized prospect in the Red Sox organization, but with the pitching struggles the Red Sox are sure to have, Alex Wilson will likely see some action in the bigs this season.  He has a hard biting slider and a running fastball that can reach 98.  He may is most likely a reliever, but does have an outside chance of catching on as the fifth starter by the end of the season.

 

Chicago Cubs – Josh Vitters – 3B/1B – A former third overall pick has largely disappointed over the past five years in the minors.  He has watched Mike Moustakas, David Price, Jason Heyward, Matt Weiters, Madison Bumgarner, and the like from the 2007 draft have big league success, but he hasn’t advanced past AA.  He has the potential to his 20 home runs each year with an average around .270.  Third base is far from a solidified position for the Cubs, so expect Vitters to make his debut sometime in mid-July, or whenever the Cubs prove to be non-contenders this season.

 

Chicago White Sox – Josh Phegley – C – Pierzinsky isn’t getting any younger and Tyler Flowers hasn’t shown that he is the catcher of the future.  Phegley hit well this spring while at big league camp.  There isn’t much depth in the organization at catcher, so giving Phegley a look this season would serve the White Sox well.

 

Cincinnati Reds – Neftali Soto – 1B – Soto has real power, has spent time at short, third, and catcher before settling in at first base.  He has improved his approach at the plate going from a dead pull hitter to a guy that can use all fields.  He may get some time at third this season, and play first to give Joey Votto a day off.  If he can’t prove he can play third, he will likely end up trade bait if the Reds find themselves in the playoff chase.

 

Cleveland Indians – Chen Lee – RHP – Lee has experience in the Olympics and the World Baseball Classic for his native Taiwan.  He has been successful in every stop thus far in the minors.  He projects as a premier set up man.  By the end of the season, a Lee/Pestano/Perez end of game may be one of the better 7/8/9 inning combinations in the American League.

 

Colorado Rockies – Ben Paulson – 1B – Paulson has impressive raw power, but has struggled with contact.  He made adjustments in the Arizona Fall League and performed quite well.  If he continues to improve his strike zone recognition, he could find himself in Colorado come September.

 

Detroit Tigers – Drew Smyly – LHP – Smyly was impressive in his first professional season last year.  He has four pitches and a ¾ delivery from the left side.  His changeup makes him effective against both right and left handers.  If he pitches well in AAA this season, he will likely find himself at the back of the rotation by the end of the season.

 

Houston Astros – Jonathon Villar – SS – Villar has been unimpressive with the bat in pro ball, but has a great glove and speed.  He was a main part of the Oswalt deal a couple years ago, and could find himself with the Astros as a late inning defensive replacement or pinch runner.  His upside is as a number 7 or 8 hitter, but could be a gold glove caliber fielder.

 

Kansas City Royals – Christian Colon – SS/2B – Colon will likely start the season in AA.  He isn’t a good defensive shortstop, but does look good at second.  He has raw power, but hasn’t been able to make it translate in pro ball.  If he finally lives up to his potential with the bat, he could very well leap frog Giavotella and be the second baseman late in the season for a Royals team that is looking to surprise people this season.

 

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim – Luis Jiminez – 3B – Jiminez got a decent look early this spring and performed pretty well.  Third base is a clear weak spot for the Angels, as they will likely be going with Alberto Callaspo if Trumbo can’t field at third or raise his OBP. Kaleb Cowart is the third baseman of the future, but Jiminez may get a look this season to see if he can hold down the position until Cowart is ready.

 

Los Angeles Dodgers – Alfredo Silverio – OF – Silverio only got four at bats this spring, but is a likely late season call up for the Dodgers.  He has average power, shows a good feel for the zone, a good glove, above average speed, and a quality arm.  With Ethier a free agent after this season, look for Silverio to get some action with the Dodgers to see if he is a decent in-house option to replace Ethier.

 

Miami Marlins – Evan Reed – RHP – Originally a starting prospect for the Rangers, he blew out his shoulder in his first outing in the Marlins system.  His recovery has been rough, but with time at the Arizona Fall League this year really helped him.  He isn’t projected as a starter anymore, but could be a quality option in the bullpen by mid-season for the Marlins.

 

Milwaukee Brewers – Caleb Gindl – OF – Gindl got a real look during spring training this year, and performed pretty well.  The big league outfield is pretty well set for the Brewers, and Aoki is the first option as a replacement for any injury to an outfielder.  That being said, Gindl has proved himself at every level of the minors and is deserving of a look this season.

 

Minnesota Twins – Brian Dozier – SS/2B – Dozier doesn’t really project as an everyday starter at either short or second, but could be a very good utility infielder.  He should get a call up sometime this season and create a role for himself much in the Nick Punto/Brandon Inge/Jamey Carroll mold.  And what better way to do that than back up Carroll himself this season?

 

New York Mets – Zach Lutz – 1B/3B – Lutz struggles this spring in big league camp, but his lowest average at any level with over 200 at-bats is .284.  He has as much power as anyone in the Mets organization.  He has had a string of lower body injuries in his career, so his range at third is limited at best.  He projects best as a first baseman, and if Ike Davis struggles with valley fever, Lutz could find himself as an everyday first baseman by September.

 

New York Yankees – David Phelps – RHP – Phelps will start the season in his third stint in AAA.  He has three above average pitches and a slider that isn’t big league ready yet.  He projects as a long man or fifth starter.  With the pitching questions the Yankees have this year, Phelps is just an injury or two from getting the call.

 

Oakland A’s – Steve Parker – 3B/1B – It would be all too easy to pick one of the many pitching prospects the A’s have.  But the guy furthest under the radar for the A’s is Steve Parker.  His arm has improved enough to become a decent third baseman, and with the injuries at that position the A’s are dealing with, an opportunity may open up for Parker.  The A’s will be bad this year, and if Donaldson or Sogard don’t step up and lock down the third base job, look for Parker to be given a shot.

 

Philadelphia Phillies – Phillipe Aumont – RHP – Aumont is a tall and long pitcher.  He was the 11^th overall selection in 2007 with as high an upside as anyone in the draft.  He has not progressed as a starter, but has a plus fastball and a nasty curve making him an incredibly effective reliever.  Aumont may break camp on the big league roster, and if he does, he could be the 8^th inning guy bridging to Papelbon by the end of the season.

 

Pittsburgh Pirates – Gorkys Hernandez – OF – Hernandez has already been traded twice in his career, and this season may be a third time.  He is a centerfielder that could prove to be an everyday guy, but is blocked by Andrew McCutchen and Starling Marte nipping at his heals.  Look for the Pirates to give him a shot in June and July, then trade him to a contending team in need of outfield depth…say…the Rangers.

 

San Diego Padres – Yasmani Grandal – C – Grandal is a serviceable defender, but above average offensively.  He doesn’t have big home run power, but does have gap power.  Add that to the fact he is a switch hitter, and he could really thrive in a park like Petco.  While Hundley is a solid starter at catcher for the Padres, Grandal could earn himself a shot as the second catcher by late season, and potentially battle Hundley for the job by next spring.

 

San Francisco Giants – Francisco Peguero – OF – Peguero has an above average arm and has become a great defender.  His has developing power, and needs to improve his approach at the plate.  His defense fits AT&T Park perfectly as a right fielder.  He can also play some center, and while it is unlikely, he does have an outside shot of making the opening day roster.  Peguero and Gary Brown are the clear future for the Giants outfield.

 

Seattle Mariners – Erasmo Ramirez –RHP – The Mariners are loaded with pitcher prospects.  Felix, Taijuan Walker, Danny Hultzen, and Hector Noesi line up to be the top four for years to come.  Ramirez is likely to be the fifth man in the rotation.  He gets hit hard when he leaves his fastball up in the zone, which he does too often, and he doesn’t look like the typical pitcher, standing just 5’11”, but he has proved he can handle a heavy inning load.  He should make his debut this season and prove to be a valuable innings eater for years to come.

 

St. Louis Cardinals – Zack Cox – 3B – David Freese lit the world on fire in last year’s postseason, but I question whether or not he is the long term answer there.  Cox does not have huge power numbers, but does look to be a potential .300 hitter with 20 home run power.  Look for him to get a September call up to allow the Cards to assess his value to the big league club.

 

Tampa Bay Rays – Tim Beckham – SS – Maybe this is just being hopeful.  Beckham was a former #1 overall pick in 2008, he has struggled in professional ball.  He finally made the Futures game last year and looked like he belonged.  Hak-Ju Lee is the shortstop of the future, and Beckham is starting to look like he may fit better on a corner of the field than the middle.  He may become a utility guy similar to Sean Rodriguez.

 

Texas Rangers – Tanner Scheppers – RHP – Scheppers has battled injury and control issues through his career.  Once a starting prospect, he is now destined to land in the bullpen.  Upside of a closer with a fastball that can touch triple digits, but ed to land in the bullpen.  Upside of a closer with a fastball that can touch triple digits, but it is a very flat fastball that can be seen easily.  The Rangers have a solid pen, but Scheppers should get some run at some point this year whether it be due to big league injuries or to eat relief innings in September remains to be seen.

 

Toronto Blue Jays – Adeiny Hechavarria – SS – A former member of the Cuban national team, Hechavarria is a plus defender and could be a real base stealing threat.  He has gap power, but walks too little and strikes out too much.  If Kelly Johnson struggles this year, Hechavarria could get some run at short with the Blue Jays moving Escobar to second.

 

Washington Nationals – Tyler Moore – 1B – The Nationals drafted Moore three times before finally convincing him to sign.  He hit 31 home runs each of the last two years in the minors.  He may have to play some in the outfield at AAA to get playing time, but should get some time at first in the bigs by the end of the season.  Look for the Nationals to give him a look and see if he is worthy of being a starting first baseman for a team that should compete for years to come.

 

 

Can’t we do away with the Rooney Rule already?  It was a fantastic idea when it was first put into place requiring every NFL team to interview at least one minority candidate for an open head coaching job.  But isn’t that outdated these days?  Are there really any owners that would not give a head coach a shot because he isn’t the right color?  I believe the Rooney Rule is actually causing the Saints to walk a very fine line.  If Bill Parcels agrees to be the interim head coach for the Saints, then it is painfully obvious that the only reason it hasn’t already been announced is they are forced to give a courtesy interview to someone they have no intention of even considering for the job.  When I watch football, the color of the head coach doesn’t even enter my mind.  The Saints need a coach that is looking to only coach for one year and won’t be aiming to take the job from Sean Payton next year.  They need a coach that is not currently on a staff because nobody in their right mind would leave a job to take an interim job.  So the Saints are likely scrambling to find a minority candidate to interview to satisfy the rule.  The Rooney Rule was one of the best rules ever instituted in the NFL, it has been successful, but it is time to remove the rule before it becomes a negative.  Let it take its place in football history while it can still be remembered in a positive light.

1) Tampa Bay Rays – Jamie Shields, David Price, Jeremy Hellickson, Matt Moore, Jeff Niemann…aka, best staff in baseball.  They also have a very good bullpen and one of the best defensive squads in the league.  The big question is whether or not they will hit.  Answer, yes.  The Rays have one of the most underrated outfields in baseball.  Zobrist is a guy that will get 15 & 15, 75 RBI, and hit .260 every year.  I see the Rays just holding off the Yankees this season.

2) New York Yankees – Health is obviously the issue for the Yankees.  Who knows how many games A-Rod, Derek Jeter, Raul Ibanez, Swisher will play.  Is this the year Rivera falls off?  Is Pineda for real?  Is Andy Pettitte really gonna pitch for the Yankees this year?  The Yankee upside is not really that high to me, but their downside is really low.  That said, they will be in contention for the division and probably get a Wild Card bid.

3) Toronto Blue Jays – The Jays have a very underrated staff.  Morrow is the best pitcher you would never recognize.  Adding Santos to the end of the bullpen was an excellent move this offseason, as was adding a guy with big game experience in Darren Oliver.  Thames has won the left field spot, and I think is due for a breakout season.  Bautista absolutely crushes, and I see Rasmus bouncing back.  E5 Edwin Encarnacion will be the DH all year, so he can’t hurt the staff with all his errors.  The season will really hinge on whether or not Brett Lawrie is the real deal, and chances are he is. 

4) Boston Red Sox – Maybe this is just me being a pessimistic Red Sox fan, or maybe I see the flaws more clearly than most outlets have been reporting.  The staff is gonna be ugly.  I watched Aceves give up 9 runs in 3 innings the other day, and he is the fourth or fifth starter.  Who knows how he or Bard will hold up as starters all season, and Beckett is routinely terrible in even numbered years.  Bailey is an injury risk, and Melancon only has one year worth of track record, and it was with a terrible Astros team.  I do believe Crawford will have a massive bounce back year, Ellsbury will regress with the power, but improve his steal numbers.  Pedroia is Pedroia, and Gonzalez is Gonzalez.  The two holes the Red Sox had this off-season were starters and right field.  They clearly didn’t do anything to improve there, and I don’t consider Ryan Sweeney or Cody Ross improvements in right.  The Red Sox won’t win more than 90 games, and that just isn’t enough in the AL East.

5) Baltimore Orioles – Last year I said the Orioles would be a .500 club.  I was just a bit off…this year I say they will….still be horrible.  The Orioles have a track record of taking pitchers with incredible potential, and finding a way to make sure they lose 5-10 mph on their fastball and struggle to get 150 innings.  See Brian Matusz.  Adam Jones is a great center fielder…and that is the last time I will use the word great in referring to anyone with the Orioles.  To give you an idea of how poor the Orioles will be this season…Wilson Betemit is slated to be the starting DH.  I am looking forward to seeing what Robert Andino can do starting the season as the everyday second baseman with Brian Roberts hurt, and it will be interesting to see if Chris Davis can live up to the hype in a new location.  This will be a rough year for the Orioles, but on the bright side, I love the new old-school hats they will be rocking this year…definitely the most impressive thing they will put on the field all season.

I have made the decision never to draft Yu Darvish, or just simply Yu as he has come to be colloquially referred to, in any of my fantasy leagues again. I don’t care if he goes 32-1 with an ERA of .4, or even better than that. Why? Do you have any idea how hard it is to talk about this guy without sounding creepy or otherwise? Now, also think, you would be talking about fantasy baseball, so odds are you are having the conversation with a fat, balding dude who has questionably hygiene.

Knowing this, the following sentences could very well come out of your mouth:

I am all about Yu!

I have a MAJOR man crush on Yu.

I’m hanging on to Yu for sure.

I love me some Yu!

Yu makes me all wide eyed and bushy tailed.

I can’t stop watching Yu…

See where I’m going with this? And it gets better. Now, imagine it’s an auction league.

I’m gonna blow my entire wad on Yu.

Yep…

You Don’t Say

You ever hear a sportscaster say something, or read something in a sports article that you have heard or seen a thousand times? How many times is it actually accurate? If you think about it, you will find it to be inaccurate more times than not. Why is this? Simple. Because it’s much easier to just say what others in your profession have been saying for years. It requires no research, and besides, if someone else has already said it, it must be true!

Do some damn homework. Let’s make an analogy, shall we? You will struggle to find a list of the worst automobiles of all time that doesn’t contain the Ford Pinto. Why? Simple. A design flaw caused the gas tank to be prone to rupture from rear end collisions. However, if you were willing to ignore the fact that the driver and his occupants may end up dying horrible flaming deaths if involved in a rear end collision, you had a car that was reasonably sporty, got half way decent fuel economy, was affordable, and believe it or not, routinely made it to over 200 thousand miles, in many cases even more, before any serious repairs were needed. But it was one of the worst cars ever.

By that logic, wouldn’t Raul Ibanez be one of the worst outfielders in baseball history. Sure, he murders right handed pitching and is usually good for at LEAST 20 home runs if given 450 plate appearances, and is an all around reliable teammate who has thus far escaped any serious steroid controversy.

Sure, it’s a stretch, comparing a horrible fiery death to a misplayed fly ball, but do you get my point?

The transgressions are endless. Albert Pujols is the greatest hitter of our time… Newsflash, our time is still going and so his is, and his numbers while still excellent are noticably declining. Not to mention he hasn’t hustled out a ground ball since Truman was president.

Shaquille O’Neal is the most dominant player ever. Sure, if you mean that nobody could defend him from within five feet of the bucket. And since when has the criteria for dominance included a pathetic foul shot percentage that only crept above 50 with divine intervention. Yeah, O’Neal was a monster for a while and has rings to show for his career, but let’s not forget the last few years that he spent being a fat liability that whined more than he played.

Enter ANYONE’s name who has ever experienced a period of excellence in a sport and the words, “best ever.” You can indisputably say it about Wayne Gretzky, but that’s about where the buck stops. Yet, people are already lobbing the phrase, “best in the game,” about Pittsburgh’s excellent forward Evgeni Malkin, who in his first injury-free season is leading the NHL in scoring. Weren’t they saying the same thing about his teammate, Sidney Crosby before all the concussion issues?  Just once, I’d love to hear someone make the same comment about Dallas’ Loui Eriksson and passionately argue their point. Why? Because no one does it. It’s much easier to say what has already been said.

Being a journalist used to mean something. And this problem is not contained just within our little hamlet of sports. But it’s what I watch, what I care about, and it’s the coverage of which in so many cases just pisses me off.

Bonus Peeve: Announcers who cannot get a name pronunciation right. The other night, one of ESPN’s Top Ten plays was a terrific diving header goal by Stuttgart’s stud striker, Vedad Ibisevic. Not an easy one, granted, but look the damn thing up! The anchors even had the audacity to make fun of themselves for butcher shopping Ibisevic’s name. On the air. Yet I continue to watch. What is wrong with me?

Remember the days of the “NL Worst” jokes? They now help you identify that moron in the bar who tries to butt in on a conversation that doesn’t involve him, but he’s desperate to be accepted. I was at a local watering hole about a week ago, working on somewhere between my ninth and twelfth watered down domestic draft, and my buddy who I rap (or slur as it were) baseball with from time to time asks me if I think the Dodgers can win the NL West this year. Enter aforementioned dufus, “Don’t you mean the NL Worst?” Here’s some free advice, people. If you are going to interrupt a sports conversation between two folks, at least do so at a reasonable volume and with something to add. And if what you’re adding is a cliché that wasn’t funny when someone invented it five years ago, don’t laugh at your own terrible joke at ear-splitting volume. Anyway, moving on.

 

1. San Francisco Giants – This pains me greatly… I should pull a Jackie Robinson and just quit writing this in protest. And yes, I did just compare myself to Jackie Robinson, apparently humility is not one of my finer qualities. That established, what to Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain have in common? Answer, neither is as good as Madison Bumgarner. Think I’m on crack? No comment. But I’m right. Check the numbers after the season. This team’s major problem was offense, but Buster Posey is back, Brandon Belt will be a full timer this season (assuming Bruce Bochy hasn’t suffered a horrible brain injury), and the WAY better than he’s given credit for Nate Schierholtz FINALLY in line for 400+ plate appearances. Now, their weakness is the bullpen, with an iffy Brian Wilson (elbow) and not a ton of quality depth behind understudy Sergio Romo. You could nitpick a few things that aren’t perfect, like Angel Pagan being way overrated because of his one God-like season in New York filling in for Carlos Beltran, and Melky Cabrera being… well, Melky Cabrera, but with a rotation that’s this deep, it’s a lock for 90 games won, and that should be enough.
2. Los Angeles Dodgers – Ned Colletti has gotten a lot of grief for his moves since taking over as GM, but let’s be fair. The guy actually did a reasonable job filling a bunch of holes with serviceable players with a budget of practically zero while the team waits for new ownership. Their bullpen is about as good as it gets, so if the rotation of all-Universe stud Clayton Kershaw and four slightly above average guys can keep them in games, they should finish well above .500… though I have doubts it will be well enough to sneak into the wild card scenario. They have some guys who can hit and will be counted on to knock in runs, but Kemp, Ethier, and Rivera have one albatross in common. They strike out a lot. And that means fewer productive outs. It will matter less if James Loney can continue his awesome second half from last year and hit .330 for an entire season… but that won’t happen. What will happen? Juan Uribe will continue to hit less than two bucks and be released by June. Welcome back to the big leagues, Josh Fields.
3. Arizona Diamondbacks – Great story, great manager, great results last season. They won’t be sneaking up on anyone this year though. Everywhere you look, there’s just not quite enough to take this division again. Hudson and Kennedy lead a legit rotation, but it ain’t what the Giants have. Putz and Hernandez anchor a ridiculously improved bullpen, but it’s not in the same class as the Dodgers. I think the human tattoo, Ryan Roberts’ breakout season is not a fluke, and he’ll even improve his average and strikeout rate this season, but I don’t think Paul Goldschmidt is ready. And Upton needs more help than just Roberts and the underrated Miguel Montero. Good team, really good manager, but it just doesn’t look like they’re going to be good enough. Not this season.
4. Colorado Rockies – That 4 preceding their name could very easily turn into a 2 if Dexter Fowler starts to become the superstud leadoff guy they’ve been hoping for the last couple of seasons. Tulo and Cargo can rake the ball all over the park, all season long, but if there isn’t anyone on base, it isn’t gonna matter much. 2012 will be the last year Todd Helton hits over .300… and it should also be his last year. Reservations for one in Cooperstown in five years please. Yeah, I said it, whatcha gonna do about it? The rotation is led by Jhoulys Chacin, whose glittering arsenal of devastating pitches is now being complemented with the couple years of experience most ace pitchers need to develop, and he’ll probably win 20 games if healthy. The description is probably becoming old hat by now as I seem to have used it a lot today, but there just isn’t enough else. All due respect to the courageous Juan Nicasio who is attempting a comeback from a broken neck sustained on a line drive back through the box last year, but this team is Swiss cheese. Looks really good, and goes great on a pastrami sandwich, but it has a lot of holes.
5. San Diego Padres – It’s gonna get ugly. So here’s what they need to do. Watch the brilliant, if unheralded, Cory Luebke emerge as a legitimate ace, pull out the blueprints from the Mat Latos trade, and flip him for a similar haul in prospects. Then you’ll have several more pieces to add to franchise cornerstones, Cameron Maybin and (now) Yonder Alonso. (and I’m really hoping that Will Venable finally emerges as the five tool threat he has looked like he’d become the last few years) Put several contenders in a bidding war for set up guy extraordinaire, Luke Gregerson, and haul in even MORE prospects, and this team is a playoff contender… in 2015. Hey, Rome wasn’t built overnight.

 

Bonus Observation: For those of you who read us semi-regularly, it should be relatively obvious by now that pretty much hate research. In 2012, you have all kinds of advanced statistics and metrics, computer programs, gazillions of sports publications and websites that feature “experts” of all kinds… and what is it really for? Do I really need sabermetrics to know that Yuniesky Betancourt isn’t very good? That said, my lack of proclivity for research has me fall into a trap from time to time. I mentioned in my earlier preview of the NL East that I don’t think the Phillies are going to be as good as many people think. This was BEFORE I knew that Juan Pierre and Scott Podsednik were competing for a reserve outfield spot. Had I known this, I could have saved myself at least 100 words typed toward carpal tunnel. The whole team preview would have been, “The Phillies are gonna suck. Yeah, the Halladay, Lee, Hamels trio is nice, but Juan Pierre and Scott Podsednik might make the team. Case closed.”

1) Detroit Tigers – While I am not high on the Tigers this year, they are clearly the class of the Central.  While the Cabrera ball to the face was on a really bad hop that few if any third baseman would field, it is a sign of things to come.  From what I was able to find, the major league record for most unearned runs in a season is 152, by the 1940 St. Louis Browns.  I will set the over/under this season at 158 for the Tigers, which would clearly break that record.  The Tigers have incredible power on the team and a really good staff, but I don’t believe any of them will live up to the expectations.  Verlander is dominating, but he needs to strike out 27 a game to ensure a win. Valverde is a very emotional closer, and if the Tigers don’t put Inge in late in a ball game, an error could easily cause Valverde to spiral downward.  I have real concerns about this team, but I still believe they are good enough to win 90-95 games and win the division easily.

2) Kansas City Royals – I went back and forth on this, but had to go with my gut.  I think Alex Gordon is for real now that he has gotten comfortable out in left.  Francoeur is a low average, good power, insane arm right fielder, a guy I am a fan of.  Hosmer is for real, Butler is one of the better DH options in the league, Moustakas will be an All-Star third baseman as early as next season.  The middle of the field is a bit of a question.  Perez is out 14 weeks behind the plate, who knows who will lock down center, and the middle infield is average.  The staff has great young arms with a mixture of decent young veteran guys.  Soria possibly out for the year would have been huge last year, but he is arguably the fifth best guy in that bullpen today.  I see the Royals winning about 85 games this year.

3) Minnesota Twins – The Twins will battle for second in the division, but I just don’t trust them enough to place them above the Royals.  Mauer and Morneau are both proving to be fragile and will eventually be battling for playing time at first and DH to keep them both healthy, making Ryan Doumit the everyday catcher, and that just isn’t a recipe for success.  Then they sent Nishioka to the minors, essentially admitting that experiment didn’t work, and the other back up middle infielder, Trevor Plouffe, was so bad defensively, they have now made him an outfielder.  They have a decent rotation, and if Liriano can pitch to his ability and stay healthy, he can be great, but again, we are talking about a Twins player essential to their success having injury issues.  The Twins could win 85 games, or they could win 65 games, neither would surprise me.

4) Cleveland Indians – I think the future of the Indians is bright.  They have some young talent, some live arms, it is just a matter of time before they pull it all together and make a playoff run.  I also think that is the same opening couple lines that could have been written for the past 5 seasons.  The Indians did look good for a time last season, and I do think they are a team that can be fun to watch.  But Grady is hurt…again, Chris Perez will be ready to go opening day…despite Pestano likely a better closer, and Casey Kotchman was signed to play first this season.  Chisenhall and Kipnis I believe are both overrated, and despite my crazy man love for him, Shin-Soo Choo really struggled last season.  Their rotation is interesting.  Will Ubaldo become the Ubaldo from a couple years ago? How much does Derek Lowe have left?  Will the pitcher formerly known as Fausto Carmona pitch this season?  They will be in the hunt until July again, but the lack of depth will cost this team again, and will finish fourth in the division.

5) Chicago White Sox – Dayan Viciedo is a future super star in this league.  Paul Konerko is the least recognizable borderline hall of famer of all time.  There, I said a couple nice things about the White Sox.  Now let’s take a look at the rest of the team.  They are awful!  The South Siders will be about as far south as you can be in the standings.  They do have enough talent left in Konerko, Alexei Ramirez, and A.J. Pierzynski to prevent them from losing 100 games, which will only cause them to miss out on a #1 pick next season, which would be beneficial for a farm system that is 30^th by a significant margin.  White Sox fans should focus on Viciedo, Adison Reed, and Chris Sale this season.  They are the future of the Sox, and will be the very dim light at the end of the very long tunnel for this organization.