Shafted: I’ll take, How Jerry Sloan Probably Feels, for 500, Alex. The situation is not unprecedented.  Star player clashes with venerated coach, ownership sides with star player, coach resigns or is shown the door.  It’s not really right since players are more frequently to blame for whatever situation there was, but owners are generally chicken poo when it comes to their stars and side with them.  But I have never seen the star player traded after the coach resigned.  That is, until the Jazz traded Deron Williams to New Jersey shortly after Jerry Sloan resigned.  Sloan was the longest tenured coach in the league at the time.  And I’m the farthest thing from a basketball aficionado, mainly because I don’t like sports where scoring a point is insignificant in the large scheme of things, but my understanding is that Sloan was respected and admired in Utah.  So how would you feel if you were him right now?  Yup.  Me too.

Douche Nozzle:  I’ll take, Torsten’s Opinion on Rip Hamilton, for 400, Alex. I seem to remember saying something about players generally being the cause of problems with coaches and management.  I’m not saying I’m right but… actually, yes I am.  I don’t have much to say about Hamilton’s reproachable behavior by boycotting his team’s shootaround before the Pistons’ game against the 76ers, pretty much because ESPN’s Jon Barry already said it all.  You collect a check, you show up to work.  A very simple rule.  I make roughly 1/15647098476 of what Rip makes and I show up, regardless of how gruntled or lack there of I may be at the moment.  Sources are now saying that the alleged boycott that Hamilton orchestrated with some of his teammates wasn’t that at all, but I have my doubts.  He’s an influential veteran and pro athletes are known for having underdeveloped social skills and an inability to think and act for themselves.  Hence, I seriously doubt that Tayshaun Prince and the rest of the guys who missed the shoot around did that independently. 

Eff Manchester United: I’ll take, More Or Less What Torsten Yelled At The Television This Morning for 1000. Yep, it’s true. Sorry mom, I do occasionally use that kind of language.  My beloved Wigan Athletic gave it a pretty good run at the EPL leaders today, before faltering late and shipping three goals in the game’s last quarter hour to go down 4-0.  Sure, the game could have been a bit different if Wayne Rooney had gotten his deserved marching orders for his deliberate elbow to the head of Wigan’s James McCarthy, or if Victor Moses had done better with his one-on-on with United keeper, Edwin Van Der Saar, or for that matter if Van Der Saar didn’t channel himself from 8 years ago with brilliant saves to deny Ben Watson and Maynor Figueroa.  And to add insult to injury, now I owe Shaun lunch.  That’s okay though, I’m going to poo in it.  I’ll have the last laugh then.

Pay Attention:  I’ll take, Things The NFL Will Not Do In The Wake Of Dave Duerson’s Death for… can’t put a dollar amount on tragedy. Those greedy bastards are too busy with their CBA negotiations over who should get more billions than to stop and take notice of the former all-pro safety’s apparent suicide. And it’s sad.  Duerson likely will not be the last to succumb to what appears to have been depression/mental illness, and it makes you wonder, when will they take notice.  I’m certainly not the first to write about this, and doubt I will be the last, but it deserves as much mention as it can get. Oversized super-athletes are crashing head first into one another at alarming speeds, yet there always seems to be an air of artificial surprise on the NFL’s part when another of their own is lost.  There are exceptions. Former coach Mike Ditka, and many former players have stood up in recent years and tried to make a difference but the going is slow.  Too slow.

Jimmer:  I’ll take, What I Would Put On My Basketball Jersey If I Were BYU Star Jimmer Fredette for 100, Alex. Pele, Kaka, and host of Brazilian and Portugese soccer players do it. Why not college basketball stars? I really hope he gets drafted by the Celtics.  I want him to go to Boston so they can interview fans there about him. “Yeah, Jimmah is awesome.  We love Jimmah.  GO JIMMAH!” The comedy potential there is endless.

Lastly but not leastly (yeah, I know.  Not a word.  Tried it in Words With Friends), my friend George Ogier wrote a wonderful article about disability in soccer. I recommend you visit www.georgeogier.wordpress.com and check it out. It’s very good stuff.

Do you know anything about the Caltech basketball team?  If so, you better only know them thanks to a certain game in 2007, be talking about Tuesday night’s game, or be an alumnus, because Caltech has redefined futility.  There was a day in 2007 when the crowd likely stormed the court, yes, all three of them, as the Caltech Beavers ended their 207 game losing streak.  Then, in the 2010/2011 season, Caltech had a season to remember…they won 5 of 25 games.  Who cares, you ask?  Caltech fans care!  Why, you ask?  Because on the last game of the season, a special February night in “lovely” Pasadena, California, the Caltech basketball team did something they had not done in my lifetime…they won a conference game.  Yes, for the first time since January 23, 1985, Caltech won a NCAA D-III SCIAC basketball game.  On the final game of the season, against conference foe Occidental, Occidental accidentally forgot how to score, losing 46-45.  No, contrary to popular belief, that is not a WNBA score, it is the score of the first SCIAC game Caltech has won since knocking off La Verne more than 26 years ago.  You may be sitting back thinking, “Well, maybe there are decent teams in the SCIAC”.  Let’s take a look at the other teams in that division.  You have the previously mentioned La Verne (where I am pretty sure their top scorer is Shirley), Redlands, Whittier, Occidental, Pomona-Pitzer, Claremont-Mudd-Scripps, and California Lutheran University.  Still not sure if the division is downright pitiful?  Let me put it this way…Caltech is in good shape down in the paint as they have two big bodies coming back that can play center for them, one stands an intimidating 6’5”, while the other just 6’4”.  My bold prediction for next year…the Caltech Beavers will win 7 games, 3 of which division games.  Check back this time next year to find out, but I likely won’t be posting anything about SCIAC athletics because, well, let’s be honest, nobody cares about the conference unless there is an epic losing streak going on (sorry Chad).



I have always been a big draft nut, but never done a true mock draft.  Now that I have the platform to do it, I am going to.  Here is my first version.  You can expect another one sometime next week after this weekends combine, then another after all the pro days, and one more still the week before the draft. 

 

1) Carolina Panthers – Da’Quan Bowers – DE – Clemson – 6’4” 280 lb. defensive end that will become a force off the end.  Not ever going to be quite the pass rusher Julius Peppers was, but damn close.  The Panthers have a ton of needs, but bringing in a pass rusher from the defensive end position will help bring back a bit of a defensive identity.

2) Denver Broncos – Patrick Peterson – CB – LSU – Tall for a corner and great ball skills.  With Champ Bailey possibly not being in Denver this coming season, a ball hawking corner is a huge need.  Plus being a relative of Bryant McFadden, Sinorice Moss, and Santana Moss has got to be a good sign.

3) Buffalo Bills – Cam Newton – QB – Auburn – Ryan Fitzpatrick proved to be a quality quarterback for the Bills.  So why draft a QB here?  Simple, Cam Newton is the most dynamic talent in the draft, he needs some time to learn the position at the NFL level, so what better way than to sit behind a Harvard grad in Fitzpatrick to learn the game, but get playing time in a triple threat wildcat package with C.J. Spiller where he could hand it off, run, or throw.  If they want to compete in the division, a talent like this could go a long way.

4) Cincinnati Bengals – Von Miller – OLB – Texas A&M – This will allow Maualuga to move back to the inside and add an end rusher to the Bengals.  He will need to improve on his run defense, but he is fast and can make tackles sideline to sideline.  He could be an addition that will make the Bengals line backing core as good a young group as you can find.

5) Arizona Cardinals – Blaine Gilbert – QB – Missouri – This will likely change as we get closer to the draft.  I fully expect the Cardinals to get a QB prior to the draft like Kevin Kolb…oh…wait…there probably won’t be a CBA in place so they won’t be able to trade or sign anyone.  Ok, Fitz, you will have another terrible season with a rookie QB.  The guy is good, better than advertised accuracy, a big arm to get the long ball to Larry Fitzgerald, and a smart QB, but still a rookie.

6) Cleveland Browns – Robert Quinn – DE – North Carolina – He was suspended the entire 2010 season, but the man has skills.  He is nearly 6’5” but only 250 or so pounds.  He will likely get pushed around in the beginning and might run out of steam by the end of his rookie season after a full year off, but he is quick off the ball, around the end and could make a real impact by mid-season, but you will never know it because he will be playing in Cleveland.

7) San Francisco 49ers – Nick Fairley – DT – Auburn – A huge talent.  Could easily go 1 or 2, but I see him falling instead.  He is a big man, can get in the backfield and even get to the quarterback.  He fits better in a 4-3, but he is such a dynamic talent, the 49ers would not let him slip past here and he is the kind of guy worth taking a second look at your defensive scheme for.  Slide Sopanga into the other interior lineman spot, let Ahmad Brooks or Parys Haralson play the OLB/DE spot and this D could really surprise some people.

8) Tennessee Titans – Prince Amukamara – CB – Nebraska – A quality corner opposite Cortland Finnegan would be a big move for Tennessee.  Prince is an incredible athlete and an even harder worker.  I would not be surprised if he is a combine stud and moves up this board into the top 5, but for now I see him going Tennessee.  Yes, they need a QB and Locker is available, but they need a guy that won’t be a bust, and Prince won’t be.  But do look for them to jump on Mallett or even Locker if he is still available on day 2.

9) Dallas Cowboys – Anthony Costanzo – OT – Boston College – It was painfully obvious the Cowboys need a big offensive tackle to protect Tony Romo.  And while Costanzo might not even be 300 pounds, he is 6’7” with long arms and very good in pass protection.  The Cowboys will no doubt go best available tackle in this position, and right now, I think that is Costanzo.

10) Washington Redskins – A.J. Green – WR – Georgia – Who knows who will be throwing the ball to him in Washington, but it is clear the Redskins need a WR.  They have not had a premier receiving threat since…um…Art Monk.  A.J. Green is a top 5 talent and could be a huge steal for the ‘skins at 10.

11) Houston Texans – Marcell Dareus – DT – Alabama – He can play either defensive tackle in a 4-3 or defensive in a 3-4.  He will be the interior end creating a young, incredibly talented defensive front with Mario Williams, Amobi Okoye, and Dareus.  Line Cushing off his hip and you have a pass rush that is second to none and a team that can stuff the run.

12) Minnesota Vikings – Cameron Jordan – DE – Cal – More of a run stopping end than a pass rushing end, but the Vikings already have the pass rushing end in Jared Allen.  Jordan can settle in next to the Williams wall.  He could start as a defensive end or he can become the replacement to Pat Williams at defensive tackle. 

13) Detroit Lions – Jimmy Smith – CB – Colorado – We will see what the combine has in store for him as he could come out of there with a top 10 grade, or I could drop him out of the first round.  But for now, I like him to Detroit.  He is 6’2” and pretty fast for a big corner.  Think Antonio Cromartie without the laundry list of kids.  The Lions don’t really have a quality corner to speak of, so Smith would make an immediate impact.

14) St. Louis Rams – Julio Jones – WR – Alabama – Torsten is currently screaming at this article as I do not have an OLB or secondary help here.  Yes, the Rams need both, but I see there being big talent available in the second round.  Bradford needs another receiving threat, and Julio Jones will fit in very well in St. Louis. 

15) Miami Dolphins – Mark Ingram – RB – Alabama – Ronnie Brown can’t stay healthy, Ricky Williams has lost a step, and Patrick Cobbs will never be a RB you want carrying the ball more than a couple times a game.  A former Heisman trophy winning RB in the middle of the first round that can be a game changer would be a great addition for the Dolphins.

16) Jacksonville Jaguars – J.J. Watt – DE – Wisconsin – Will be a great fit opposite Aaron Kampman on the defensive line, but at 6’6” and 290+ he can play inside as well.  He is versatile and productive.  He can play the run or the pass, he could very well go earlier, but again, I see him slipping due to the fact he doesn’t fit into any one system perfectly, just every system very well, and that is just the kind of guy the Jaguars need as Jack Del Rio will be on the hot seat all season.

17) New England Patriots (from Oakland Raiders) – Akeem Ayers – OLB – UCLA – The Patriots desperately need a pass rushing threat off the edge, and if the Rams go WR rather than reaching for Ayers in that spot, he should be available for the Patriots and could be a great addition to the defense.

18) San Diego Chargers – Nate Solder – OT – Colorado – They need a guy to be molded into the left tackle of the future, and Nate Solder is the guy.  A year behind Marcus McNeil will allow Solder to improve his pass blocking ability.  He has good footwork and is very athletic for a guy standing 6’8” and weighing around 315.  He will be a great pick for depth along the line for this season and a guy to have Rivers back in the future.  They could use help on the defensive side of the ball and at receiver, but both positions can be addressed in the later rounds.

19) New York Giants – Tyron Smith – OT – USC – He can be a big help on this offensive line.  Will depend how he comes out in training camp, but he could take the left tackle spot from David Diehl allowing Diehl to slide into left guard, or he could prepare to take the right tackle spot from Kareem McKenzie next season when his contract runs out.

20) Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Adrian Clayborn – DE – Iowa – They have a good interior defensive line, Clayborn can be a pass rushing defensive end that can make the Buc’s defensive line one of the best in football for years to come.  They will probably get a running back in the second round, look Shane Vereen if he is there in round 2, as I have been in the past, this may be a biased call since I have known him since he was about 9, and improve that offensive line.

21) Kansas City Chiefs – Corey Liuget – DT – Illinois – Liuget is 6’3” 300 lbs, he would line up over center while they have Glen Dorsey at 6’1” also 300 lbs. at “end”.  These two, along with Tyson Jackson on the other end, would able to stuff the run in a division with two teams that rely on it.  They will look outside linebacker to come off the side around Glen Dorsey later in the draft, but here, they will shore up the defensive line.

22) Indianapolis Colts – Gabe Carimi – OT – Wisconsin – Most of their offensive lineman have been late round picks, and you might look at them and think they are decent.  But they aren’t.  Peyton Manning is the best at moving around in the pocket and getting rid of the ball quick.  What better way to improve the line than adding the best offensive lineman in college last season.

23) Philadelphia Eagles – Mike Pouncey – OG/C – Florida – His brother Maurkice plays on the north end of the state and played incredibly well last season.  He may be riding his brother’s coat tails into the draft, and he will never be as good as his brother, but he will be a quality interior offensive lineman.  They need help on the line at nearly every position, and Mike Pouncey can play either guard spot or center, and since there is not a tackle here that wouldn’t be a reach, Pouncey is a great pick.

24) New Orleans Saints – Mikel LeShoure – RB – Illinois – Ok, so this may be a bit of a stretch, especially since you see guy after guy fill in well at running back for New Orleans, but I really like LeShoure here.  Pierre Thomas is a Free Agent, and missed most of last season due to injury.  Reggie Bush is not a true running back.  He is a swing back who is at his best in the slot or on screen passes.  Do you really want to run with Chris Ivory again?  LeShoure’s 6 foot, 230 lb. body can handle the inside runs and will open up the wing for Bush. 

25) Seattle Seahawks – Justin Houston – OLB – Georgia – And every Packer fan just shed a tear.  This is the last top notch talent at outside linebacker.  There are guys that can fill in well, but no more with first round type talent.  Houston is a very good pass rushing linebacker, but could improve in his coverage skills.  Aaron Curry will handle one side, Lofa Tatupa will run the middle, and Justin Houston will be able to complement those two well.

26) Baltimore Ravens – Brandon Harris – CB – Miami (Fla.) – Another Miami defensive back…it has worked out well for the Ravens in the past.  Harris has the ability to be a very good coverage corner.  He will fit right into the Ravens style of football and help shut down the pass heavy AFC North.

27) Atlanta Falcons – Cameron Heyward – DE – Ohio State – A big defensive end that can take up space or get to the quarterback.  They have some big names at the position, but not so much in terms of production.  Heyward would certainly be an upgrade at the defensive end position, and his long frame will help him in pass defense.  It will be interesting to see if he can be successful in the running game though.

28) New England Patriots – Ryan Kerrigan – DE – Purdue – He led D-1A, or Bowl Division, or whatever they call it now, in tackles for loss last season.  He knows how to get in the backfield, not the biggest guy, but strong enough to bull rush, and fast enough to speed rush.  He is a great fit for the New England defense.  If they don’t get Ayers in their first pick, don’t be surprised if he is taken there, but he could very well slip down to here as well.

29) Chicago Bears – Derrick Sherrod – OT – Mississippi St. –  If Jay Cutler had Derrick Sherrod at Tackle, maybe he wouldn’t have been standing on the sidelines oblivious to the fact there was a NFC Championship game going on after apparently tearing his MCL.  Sherrod is a very good tackle and should really help shore up an average line in Chicago.

30) New York Jets – Rahim Moore – S – UCLA – Everyone saw the trouble the Jets secondary had after the Jim Leonhard injury, and while Leonhard is a strong safety and Moore will likely play free safety, a ball hawking, big hitting safety, will be a huge addition to a secondary that already has 3 very good to great corners and a very smart strong safety.  Rahim Moore has the talent to be a Defensive Rookie of the Year candidate, and with the freedom he would have to react on his natural instincts, I see him winning it if he lands in New York.

31) Pittsburgh Steelers – Aaron Williams – CB – Texas – Going into the Super Bowl, the big mismatch everyone pointed to was the Packers 3-4-5 wide receivers vs. the lack of secondary depth of the Steelers.  That proved to be a big difference in the game based on the game Jordy Nelson had.  Aaron Williams will be a quality Nickel corner his rookie season, and can become a really good #2 or even a decent #1 corner in his career.

32) Green Bay Packers – Aldon Smith – DE – Missouri – The Packers need an outside linebacker opposite Clay Mathews, but it won’t be available here.  But the 6’5”, 260 lb. defensive end can play with his hand down, and he may be able to play standing up as well.  They can use a pass rushing guy on the line Mathews can rush behind, but with time and coaching, he just may be able to become the OLB to compliment Mathews.  Adding a guy like Aldon Smith and some depth later in the draft could set up the Packers to be the favorite to become the first repeat champion since the Patriots.

Podcast Preview

1. Philadelphia Phillies – The city of brotherly love and eerily urine-like odor could have my two nephews, both younger than five, and 7 kids from their preschool on offense and still be a threat.  Instead of that murderer’s row, their vaunted pitching staff will have to settle for Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, the underrated Shane Victorino, and the under-appreciated Placido Polanco for offense.  Even though Howard has seen his average drop in recent seasons, Utley is a virtual lock for at least one DL stay, and the very good all-around Jayson Werth took his talents to DC, they figure to score enough to run away with this division.  Polanco, even though he has precious little power to be playing 3rd base, is as consistent a hitter as you could want.  And if Jimmy Rollins duplicates his form of a couple years back, the ceiling for this gang suddenly got way higher.  But let’s talk about where the true focus of this team is going to be all season.  Roy Halladay is… well, the best.  Enough said.  And then they pulled the rug out from under the Yankees by signing Cliff Lee to a discount (if a nine figure deal can ever be called a discount) long term deal.  These guys could combine for 50 wins.  And then you have potential future hall of famer Roy Oswalt and the underachieving but dynamic Cole Hamels.  Those guys could combine for 40 wins.  The only real weak spot is the closer situation.  Brad Lidge’s days of 50 successful consecutive save streaks are a thing of the past and they don’t really have a deputy.  Ryan Madson is okay, but not really a ninth inning guy.  God only knows how old Jose Contreras is, but he thrived last year out of the pen.  Color me shocked on that one too.  I don’t really see any other team that has the ability or the weakness of their division to challenge the Phils for MLB’s best record. 

2. Atlanta Braves – I still hate these guys from back in the day when they were in the NL West.  That said, by default, they’re the second best team in this division.  Starting with the offense, rookie stud Jason Heyward is really the only star of note, but he figures to improve by leaps and bounds this year.  I don’t have any scientific reason to believe that he will avoid the sophomore slump, but he would scare me into having to change my shorts if he’s playing against my team and at bat with runners on.  The rest of the gang is a bunch of good but unremarkable guys, no offense to all star catcher, Brian McCann. Martin Prado is very good, and versatile.  Dan Uggla was a shrewd acquisition, even if it cost them Omar Infante, who if ever given a permanent position and regular playing time, could turn into a perennial all star instead of a one hit wonder.  Chipper Jones is past his prime, but still a threat.  Alex Gonzales is better than the average bear when it comes to slugging shortstops.  The only real questions are whether Jordan Schafer will live up to the hype (you better believe it, more on him later) and if Nate McLouth can rediscover his Pittsburgh Pirates form.  My opinion, no.  But still, he could.  And if he does, he can fill the one glaring void this offense has.  Stolen bases.  Heyward led them last year with 11 and that’s not enough. The pitching staff is formidable, if not Philadelphian.  Tim Hudson showed he is still an ace, age has not horribly affected Derek Lowe, and the young Tommy Hanson/Kris Medlen duo has some serious upside.  My favorite of the bunch, however, is Jair Jurrgens, even though he murdered the souls of three of my fantasy staffs last season. His stuff is legit.  If he can get his confidence and health to follow suit, pen him in for 14-16 wins.  The icing on the cake is the apparent decision of closer Billy Wagner not to retire.  Even after crossing the 40 threshold, he is still one the games most dominant closers.  They won’t catch Philly, but there’s reason for optimism in Atlanta. I know I’ve said this about like 30 teams already, but the wild card is not a stretch.

3. Florida Marlins – Stephania Bell, the injury guruess from ESPN predicts a significant injury to ace Josh Johnson, and if she’s right, this prediction goes in the toilet.  She’s clearly an expert, but I have to question this call.  He’s physically massive, and doesn’t seem to have to exert a ton of effort to get maximum effectiveness out of his stuff.  After him, you have Javier Vasquez and Ricky Nolasco.  Vasquez seems to thrive in small markets and Nolasco… well, he sucks.  Inexplicably too, because his stuff is as good as anybody’s.  Maybe this is the year he puts it all together?  The Marlins are hoping so, because you could do worse than Anibal Sanchez, who owns a no-hitter (even though Eric Byrnes looked safe at first to me on the last out… just call me Torsten Joyce), as a number 4 guy.  I’m not sold on Chris Volstad, but I wasn’t on Tampa’s Jeff Niemann either before last season and look how nice he turned out.  Speaking of not sold on, closer Leo Nunez reminds me of Mitch Williams.  Wild, oddly effective, but always seeming more likely to blow the save than actually get it.  Then again, he notched 30 of them last year and throws in the high 90s.  Who knows. Offensively, they lost their leader in homers, rbis, runs, and slugging percentage when they dealt Dan Uggla.  Omar Infante won’t replace the power, but here’s hoping he slots into the vacant 2nd base spot.  He deserves it.  Hanley Ramirez remains one of the game’s most dynamic all around talents despite a down year in 2010.  Who else can hit .300 with over 20 homers, 30 steals, and you can call it a down year… from a shortstop.  Yeah, he’s that good.  Mike Stanton is a star in waiting, and Chris Coughlan should recover from his diabolical sophomore season so there’s some reason for a few fans, emphasis on few, to come to the games.  Unfortunately, everyone else appears pedestrian at best, although Gaby Sanchez is intriguing.  They won’t embarrass themselves this year, but they’ve got a tough task ahead.  Not as tough as these next two, though.

4. Washington Nationals – They’d be higher if not for Stephen Strasburg’s injury… actually, no they wouldn’t, and his absence is crushing to them.  Switching gears, the Jayson Werth pickup showed a commitment to fielding a winner, even though they let Adam Dunn go.  He may have been a defensive disaster anywhere but on the bench, but they’ll eventually have to get his 40 homers and 100 ribbies from somewhere if they want to contend. Adam Laroche will help, and Rick Ankiel could, but both of those guys are better suited to be complementary pieces on contenders… as we may see when the trading deadline approaches.  Bryce Harper is the messiah, if you listen to the hype, but likely a year away, so the ancient Pudge Rodriguez will likely see the bulk of the duty behind home plate, his balky back permitting.  Roger Bernardina is an interesting prospect in the outfield but they don’t figure to score enough to compensate for their dreadful pitching staff.  Speaking of which, without Strasburg, they’re relying on John Lannan is not awful, and neither is Tom Gorzelanny, but can you really count on another 230 meritorious innings from Livan Hernandez?  For goodness’ sake, Tyler Clippard led them out of the BULLPEN with 11 wins last season.  Not exactly a harbinger of great success.  And no, Jason Marquis is not worthy of mention here… unless you count emergency pinch hitter as something worth mentioning.  As far as pitchers go, he can rake.  I’m reaching now.  Time to move on.

5. New York Mets – I thought I had money issues… On paper they seem mediocre, certainly better than a last place finish.  I’m going to tread carefully on the financial stuff since I’m not a legal expert but let’s just say it can’t help their on field focus.  So, David Wright is still a star, although you’d like a few more long balls from his bat.  Jason Bay was an atrocious pickup for superstar money, but can still hit a little.  Beyond that, you’re looking at guys like Jose Reyes, Angel Pagan, Ike Davis, Carlos Beltran and Luis Castillo who are injury prone, over acheived last year, figures to slump as pitchers adjust, are REALLY injury prone, and suck, in that order.  For some reason, I like Ronny Paulino, but it’s probably because he pulls a ton of chicks with that name, rather than any real star ball playing qualities.  Seriously, I’m Ronny Paulino, what’s your number.  Best pick up line in sports.  The staff would be better if Johan Santana was healthy… but he’s not.  Mike Pelfrey showed some maturity early in 2010 before fading a bit, but he gives up more hits than innings pitched and doesn’t strike out enough guys.  R.A. Dickey was easily my favorite success story of last season, but how often do guys have journeyman careers for a decade and then thrive in their mid 30s?  Not often.  He is a knuckle baller though, and they age well.  Ladies and gentleman, your 2020 Cy Young winner, Charlie Haeger!  Just kidding.  Bobby Parnell is a nice bullpen piece and figures to do a nice job being a bridge to closer Francisco Rodriguez, but how good is K-Rod going to be after serious legal troubles?  Seriously, those kinds of things have a way of being a rain cloud that follows unlucky cartoon characters around.  And there was nothing unlucky about him assaulting his father-in-law.  Just stupidity.  So everything he does is going to be under a microscope, add the aforementioned legal issues, general mediocrity, and you don’t have a recipe for a good season at all.

Rookie Pitcher of the Year – Drew Storen.  Yeah, he’s that other young pitching prospect in the Capitol. And he’s already logged too many innings to be a rookie, so we can re-title this section “breakout pitcher of the year.” I just don’t see any rookie standing out this season so he gets the nod. He’s not a guy I’ve seen a ton of, but the glimpses I’ve gotten have been eye-opening.  You can pencil in the same concerns you would have with any young pitcher, and add the fact that he’s going to perennially be in the shadow of Strasburg.  That could either help him by motivating him to make a name for himself, or could hinder him by making him try too hard to escape from that shadow. He won’t have the luxury of anonymity as major leaguers have seen him now, but the Nats are going to go and stick with him as closer, and since they won’t contend this year, he can take some lumps and not worry about losing his job.  By year’s end, he’ll be a household name.

Rookie Hitter of the Year – Jordan Schafer.  Is it just me, or the Braves churn out an uncanny number of outfield prospects.  Not just prospects, but bona fide blue chippers.  A lot was made, and rightfully so, of Jason Heyward last year, but this kid has the tools to make Heyward the second best player in that outfield.  He’s got every tool.  I heard on some radio show that he doesn’t always take the best route to the ball.  I don’t know if that’s true or not, and while you would like your center fielder to be Willie Mays incarnate, if that’s the biggest gripe against him I think he’ll be okay.  Besides, remember the absolute calamity Matt Kemp was in center for the Dodgers?  And remember how he transformed himself into a gold glover in one season?  Never mind his befuddling regression last season, but this flaw, if it exists, can be worked on.  And since Schafer isn’t dating Rihanna, I don’t think he’ll have a problem doing it. 

Surprise Player of the Year – Ian Desmond.  The Nats’ shortstop is big on talent.  Maybe not like Bryce Harper, and maybe he doesn’t make scouts slobber like a healthy Strasburg, but he can hit.  If they can stomach the growing pains defensively, they’ll have an emerging all star on their hands.  And if you look at last year, his defense actually improved from brutal to merely awful. If this year he can improve from awful to mediocre, notice shall be taken.  He won’t be the next Hanley Ramirez, but who is. 

Random Thought – Everyone except his immediate family really dislikes Hank Steinbrenner, right?  They kind of have to.  And if they didn’t before, they really ought to after his thinly veiled shot at Derek Jeter.  For those of you who don’t know, he intimated that the Yankees didn’t do better in 2010 because there was too much celebrating with certain players after 2009, and that they were “building mansions,” etc. Well, Jeter happened to be building a mansion, and yeah, his numbers last season weren’t great.  But he is aging a bit and some deterioration is expected.  Nonetheless, I can unabashedly say that even as a proud Yankee hater, I cannot believe that an owner would take such a blatant swipe at one guy who has not only been the face of the franchise, but handled himself with class through very contentious contract negotiations, and has left his blood, sweat and tears on the diamond and both Yankee Stadiums.  Very few players can say that they have never taken a play off, never hot dogged it, never half-assed it to first base on a routine grounder, and always taken the high road when others around him have stooped to sophomoric media tactics, for example, a certain high profile teammate. If you ever need an example of someone who deserved a little better, you have it. 

Random Thought #2 – It’s official, Carmelo Anthony is a Knick. Look, I’m not even a basketball fan.  In fact, I quite dislike it.  But being the blogger hack that I am, I pay enough attention to have an idea of what I’m talking about.  I don’t know who thought it would be a good idea to put two of the biggest “me first, I gotta get mine” guys on the same team in Anthony and Amare Stoudamire but he might have been smoking something.  This is not the Lakers bringing class act Pau Gasol in, or even LeButthead James going to Miami. He’s shown enough unselfishness on the court, as has Chris Bosh, that despite their weaknesses and lack of depth the team is thriving. Not like the Knicks have done anything wise in the personnel department (unless you count ditching Eddy Curry in this deal or canning Isaiah Thomas a billion years too late) but what in the heck were they thinking? Can someone help me with this? 

Up next, our Triple A preview.  Or not.

1) Texas Rangers – The defending AL champions have lost ace pitcher Cliff Lee, DH Vladimir Guerrerro, and stud set up man Frank Francisco, but they did add Mike Napoli and Adrian Beltre.  The big question is what will happen with Michael Young.  If they can flip him and get a big bat to fill in for the often injured Nelson Cruz and DH when Napoli is behind the dish, it would be a nice move for the Rangers, but in the end, I see Michael Young staying in Texas.  Nelson Cruz is in an outfield with MVP candidate Josh Hamilton, and Julio Borbon who has the potential to be an excellent leadoff hitter, but hasn’t put it all together just yet.  If Ian Kinsler can stay healthy, he looks to get back to stud second base levels.  Mitch Moreland will get a chance to hold down the first base spot, and Elvis Andrus is the best young defensive shortstop to come around since Omar Vizquel.  Adrian Beltre will not have the season he had last year, but he will have one of his better years.  Michael Young can fill in at any infield position when he is not DHing, and Mike Napoli will fill in at catcher or first when he is not DHing.  And when Napoli is not catching, Yorvit Torrealba and Taylor Teagarden will battle to get playing time behind the plate.  Their pitching staff is not as impressive as it was last season, but C.J. Wilson, Colby Lewis, Brandon Webb, Tommy Hunter, and Derek Holland make up for a quality rotation that is more than enough to win the unimpressive AL West.  Neftali Feliz is a great young closer, while Arthur Rhodes and Darren O’Day will be quality 7^th and 8^th inning guys, although an upgrade and moving them to middle relief is needed if they want to make another run at the World Series.

2) Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim – The best staff in the AL West belongs to the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim of Orange County of California of…seriously, I will never get over this, the dumbest name in sports.  If you want to be an LA team, move to LA, otherwise just own the fact you are a suburban white family team in the heart of Orange County just down the street from “the happiest place on Earth.”  Back to baseball.  They do have a staff that could really surprise people this year.  Jered Weaver has developed into an ace, and Dan Haren certainly has the skill to be an ace as well.  Ervin Santana is about as good a 3^rd pitcher as you will find in the American League, Joel Pinero is a really good 4^th pitcher, and Scott Kazmir has the stuff to be an ace, just has lost his way a bit the past couple years.  Fernando Rodney will shut the door in the 9^th consistently, and he has guys like Scott Downs and a familiar name, Francisco Rodriguez, coming out of the pen to set him up.  No, it is not K-Rod, just a guy with the same name which is fun to see in an Angel uniform.  At catcher, Jeff Mathis will be the clear cut starter with Mike Napoli now in Texas via Toronto, and Bobby Wilson is a quality backup backstop, but look out for young Hank Conger to make it to the bigs and make an impact by the end of the season.  Erick Aybar and Maicer Izturis are a solid defensive left side of the infield.  Heard this before, “Howie Kendrick will win a batting title someday”?  Well…his batting average has gone down every year for the past three years, so it is time for him to either step up or for the Angel Fans hyping him to shut up.  After the freak injury that ended Kendry Morales’ season last year, his big bat will be a great impact in the middle of the order.  Bobby Abreu is the DH while Torii Hunter and Vernon Wells make for the most overpaid corner outfield combo in baseball.  Peter Bourjos should roam center for the between the two former center fielders that have each lost a step.

3) Oakland Athletics – Dallas Braden, Brett Anderson, Gio Gonzalez, Trevor Cahill….heard of them?  The most below the radar young staff in baseball is in Oakland.  Add the battle between Brandon McCarthy and Rich Harden for the fifth starter and the massive ballpark they play at in Oakland, and you have a team that can stay in the game with anyone.  They have Andrew Bailey at closer and set up men Grant Balfour and Brian Fuentes.  This team can be a surprise threat in the west if they have enough offense.  So, do they?  Two words…Kevin Kouzmanoff.  Yes, the Padre prospect reject is still a starter in Oakland.  Cliff Pennington is an ok shortstop, as is Mark Ellis at second base.  Daric Barton is a far below average first baseman but can provide surprising power at times.  Coco Crisp does manage center well, and David DeJesus is an underrated right fielder.  Left field will be a three man race this spring between Josh Willingham, Conor Jackson, and Ryan Sweeney.  Add Hideki Matsui as DH and potential emergency outfield fill in, and the A’s actually have a pretty impressive outfield.  Don’t sleep on Chris Carter or Michael Taylor either, they are two rookie outfielders that can make an impact this year, or make an impact as trade bait.  With top 10 catcher Kurt Suzuki rounding out the starting lineup, the A’s are a team a mid-season move or two away from making a run at the division.  They are not on the list of approved teams just yet, but Michael Young is an A’s type player, and with a package of a couple young outfielders and a pitching prospect just might be enough to get him from Texas.  A bit of a stretch, but to me, there isn’t a better fit for him.

4) Seattle Mariners – Worst team in the AL.  Justin Smoak will be the first baseman, and while he has incredible potential, but has yet to put it together.  Jack Wilson is a great defensive shortstop, but has certainly lost a step.  Chone Figgins has moved back to the position he has truly thrived at third base.  Brendan Ryan will start this season at second, but Dustin Ackley will earn the spot by the all-star break and will put together a really good second half.  Franklin Gutierrez is a really fun center fielder to watch, and we are all familiar with Ichiro and his brilliance at the plate.  In left field, look for Michael Saunders to battle Milton Bradley, and if Bradley loses that battle, he will try to get the DH spot from Jack Cust.  The real offensive struggle for the Mariners will be at catcher where Miguel Olivo will try to improve the worst starting staff in baseball.  King Felix is great, the rest of them are not.  Jason Vargas, Doug Fister, Erik Bedard, Michael Pineda, Luke French, and David Pauley will all battle for the last 4 starting spots.  The good news, the Mariners have choices of which pitcher they want to send out and get lit up.  They do have a decent back end of the bullpen.  Garrett Olson to Brandon League to David Aardsma would save the leads if the Mariners could find a way to get any.  But they might also be the only 3 relievers they have that deserve to play in the Major Leagues.

AL West Offensive Player of the Year – Mike Napoli – Texas Rangers – Don’t know what the Angels were thinking getting rid of him.  They said it was his contract, and then they brought in the worst contract in baseball with Vernon Wells.  Now Napoli finds himself in the same division he is already used to destroying.  He hit 26 home runs last year while his average dropped.  But now he goes to Texas where everyone’s stats improve.  So look for .265/30/105 this season.

AL West Pitcher of the Year – Felix Hernandez – Seattle Mariners – 2.27 ERA, 232 Ks, 1.06 WHIP, 13-12 record.  The guy keeps getting better but his offense keeps getting worse.  He will pitch at a Cy Young level again this year, but the 11-14 record he will have this season will keep him from getting winning the award.  But if you have a chance to watch him this year, do it, he is great on the mound, just don’t watch when the Mariners are on offense, they will bore you.

AL West Offensive Rookie of the Year – Dustin Ackley – Seattle Mariners– He will be a solid second baseman for years to come.  He will never hit for power, nor will he blind anyone with his speed, but he will play a solid defense and hit for a good average.  He was MVP in the Arizona Fall League, let’s see if he can string that into a good spring and win the starting job come opening day.

AL West Rookie Pitcher of the Year – Michael Pineda – Seattle Mariners – Looks like the only bright side the Mariner fans will have is the youth.  Here is another guy that could really do well this season.  He will have a sub 4 ERA and will likely be the #2 pitcher come end of the season.  But as is the case with any pitcher not named Felix, he won’t have more than 7 wins.  But he has excellent control and could strike out 150+ batters this season.

AL West Surprise Player of the Year – David DeJesus – Oakland Athletics – He has been a quiet player through his career, but mostly because he has been stuck in Kansas City.  Now he is in Oakland, where the big ballpark may hurt him from time to time on foul ball outs, but the space in the outfield will more than make up for it.  Look for him to hit over .300, take advantage of a hitter friendly division and get 10-15 long balls, and rack up 10 triples with 40 doubles.   He won’t win any awards this year, but he will be a solid contributor to the team, offensively and defensively, if the A’s make a run this year.

1. Cincinnati Reds – Wanna know what’s sad?  I’m not sure I spelled Cincinnati right but I’m too lazy to check. Anyway, I put the Reds here more out of attrition than anything else.  No team in this division convinces me.  But they have Joey Votto.  True, he’s only the second best player in the division, but if there’s one guy I don’t want to face with the game on the line, it’s him.  They also have some really nice arms on the staff. Edinson Volquez, Johnny Cueto, fireballer Aroldis Chapman, last year’s rookie stud, Mike Leake to just name a few.  And then you have pseudo hippie guitar player Bronson Arroyo, who is perhaps the most unheralded 17 game winner in baseball.  Sure, when he’s bad, he’s awful and that inflates his ERA and WHIP, but he’s good more often than not.  How he does it with an 83 MPH heater is beyond me, but he’s done it long enough and consistently enough for it not to be a fluke.  There are some glaring flaws here.  Drew Stubbs has a nice combination of power and speed, but he does not seem to be able to hit for average.  I’m never surprised when Jay Bruce launches a 500 footer into the upper deck, but any time he rips an opposite field RBI single in a late inning, clutch situation, my face looks like that guy in the really creepy Monet painting from a billion years ago.  I’m just not convinced that he’s clutch.  Lastly, Paul Janish is a decent shortstop, but he pronounces his last name’s J like it’s a Y, and that pisses me off much the same way it does when people add silent letters to their names… like spelling Roger with a D.  Like Rodger.  Did you really need that D?  Come on…

2. Milwaukee Brewers – Again, my laziness takes over.  I just changed my mind and picked Milwaukee to win this division, but I don’t feel like doing the necessary cutting and pasting to re-order this post.  Zach Grienke moves to the National League, likely knocking half a run from his already sterling ERA, and will form a fearsome one two with Yovanni Gallardo.  Shawn Marcum was an excellent pickup also.  And they still have Randy Wolf, who has always been a little overrated if you ask me, but isn’t altogether awful either.  They picked up the awesome (if ancient) Takashi Saito who will provide insurance if John Axford’s excellent rookie closing season turns out to be a one and done.  Don’t think Saito is awesome?  Look at his career ERA and K to BB ratio.  Unmatched for someone who was considered over the hill for the JAPANESE LEAGUE!!!  Ryan Braun, Prince Fielder, Casey McGeeheeheehee or however you spell it, and Cory Hart provide a nice offensive punch, that will be even nicer if Rickie Weeks can improve his on base percentage.  The achilles heel is huge though.  Shortstop and catcher are huge question marks, unless you consider 40 year old Craig Counsell, perennial suck monster Yunieski Betancourt, George Kottaras and Wil Nieves answers.  If not a division title, a wild card berth is a real possibility.

3. St. Louis Cardinals – The Albert Pujols deadline for a contract extension passed without, well, an extension.  Rumor has it he wants 300 million, and while nobody deserves that kind of money, the Dominican equivalent to Roy Hobbs comes close.  I’ve never been a big believer in nonsense like clubhouse chemistry or “intangibles,” but it’s going to get tiresome for this team to be fielding questions about this situation after every single game.  And by every single game, I mean twice on Sunday’s too.  That sad, the offense should be okay with Matt Holliday, last season’s revelation John Jay, and the improving Colby Rasmus.  Lance Berkman was a sneaky good acquisition also.  On the rotation, Adam Wainwright, Chris Carpenter, Jaime Garcia and Jake Westbrook form a solid quarted, which immediately becomes worse when you look at Kyle Lohse in the fifth spot, but Kyle McClellan might take over that job before long.  The thing that would scare me if I was a Cards fan is the 235 innings Chris Carpenter logged last season.  He’s always been very very good, but never has proven himself as a model of durability.  Like Milwaukee, they could win this division, or they could fall apart with all the Pujols scrutiny wearing on them and the fact that Ryan Franklin still figures to close.  I wonder if they have Troy Percival’s number on file.  Or Lee Smith.  Or Bruce Sutter.

4. Chicago Cubs – The only reason I don’t have them ranked lower is the fact that the Pirates and Astros also play in this division.  They did make a nice move by adding post-season proven Matt Garza to a rotation that was relying too heavily on Ryan Dempster and headcase, Carlos Zambrano.  But it’s just not enough.  It’s nice to have a thoroughbred like Carlos Marmol at the back end of the pen, but I just don’t see them getting enough games to the ninth inning with a lead to really maximize the weapon he is. Kerry Wood remains an x-factor, if healthy, but how often does that happen? On to the offense.  This is going to be short. Aramiz Ramirez, Alfonso Soriano, Geovany Soto, and Marlon Byrd are nice pieces to a good team, but would be much better if a superstar (think the aforementioned Votto or someone like that) was sandwiched in between them.  The addition of slugging first baseman Carlos Pena replaces the departed Derek Lee’s pop and outstanding defense at first base, but he’ll need to bump his average way above the Mendoza line to have the impact this team needs him to have to be a competitor.  Not to look too far ahead, but do you think Albert Pujols would stab St. Louis in the heart and sign with the hated Cubbies in 2012?  I just smiled while typing that.  Does that make me a bad person?

5. Pittsburgh Pirates – How long can a team be bad?  Check that, how long can a team be awful?  There are players here with some great potential.  Andrew McCutcheon, Pedro Alvarez and Jose Tabata are a future trio who are going to do some damage.  But offseason acquisitions Lyle Overbay and Matt Diaz are better suited to platoons, and are likely going to play way more than that.  Garrett Jones has nice power… for a guy who is third or fourth on his team in long balls, but he led this squad with 21 last year.  That’s not enough.  Speaking of not enough, Paul Maholm led the team in wins last season.  With nine.  Yup.  Nine.  And Ross Ohlendorf just WON his arbitration case with the Pirates after going a sparkling 1-11.  One. Freaking. Win.  Yeah, Ohlendorf is better than his numbers would indicate, but he’s not part of any rotation that is going to compete in September.  Ever.  And neither are Kevin Correia, James McDonald, and Jeff Karstens, and a healthy and sane Scott Olsen is pushing it.  I don’t think they’ll lose 100, mainly because God is benevolent and can’t continue in good conscience to punish the Pirates faithful so harshly.  On the bright side, they don’t have anyone on their team who (allegedly) assaults women in bathrooms like the local football squad.

6. Houston Astros – They may not finish last.  But they should.  You don’t trade your best pitcher, your best hitter, not get any real top level talent in return (I don’t consider J.A. Happ top level, mainly because he should ditch the initials and just go with Jim, or whatever his first name is. My philosophy is beer over research) and expect to get any better.  True, Hunter Pence put up bigger numbers than Berkman did last year, and he’s a very nice player.  Chris Johnson is an intriguing and powerful prospect at the hot corner, but what message are you sending your fans when your big offseason offensive pickups are Bill Hall and Clint Barmes?  Even though the left field porch is about arms reach from home plate, no way Barmes duplicates the deceptive power he showed in Colorado.  And no way Bill Hall becomes anything other than the shining example of mediocrity he has been his whole career, save for one monster, 35 dinger year. I’m just going to say a couple things about the pitching.  One, it’s terrible.  Wandy Rodriguez would be a nice guy to fill out a rotation with, but they’ll need him to lead it.  Not good.  Brandon Lyon is a nice guy to have around if you need a couple outs in the 7th inning, but they need him to close.  He’s done that before and failed miserably at it.  If I’m forgetting to mention someone, I don’t care.  They can’t possibly make a difference for this suffering franchise.

Offensive Player of the Year Other than Votto or Pujols – Had to throw that disclaimer in there.  I might be selling out by picking Prince Fielder here, but I have a theory.  There are perpetual trade rumors following him, and I don’t know why.  The Brewers would demand a king’s ransom for him in return, and given the fact that aside from his power, his numbers are only a little better than pedestrian, and nobody will pay that. The only thing I can think of is that he might want out of Milwaukee, realize that in order for a likeable destination to pay what it would take to get him, he’d need to have a monster of a year.  I think he’ll end up dropping 20 pounds and getting serious this year.  If he does, look out.

Pitcher of the Year – Plenty to choose from here and I’m going to go with the obvious choice in… well, is it obvious?  Ok fine, Zack Greinke.  His struggles with anxiety are well documented but he can thrive in the relative anonymity of Milwaukee, and his devastating arsenal of pitches is matched by precious few. If Milwaukee scores some runs, and they figure to, he could win a boatload of games.  Very few pitchers pitch better with a lead than Greinke.  You wouldn’t know this unless you really paid attention because Kansas City rarely led anyone, but it’s eerie.  His command goes from excellent to impeccable. His movement goes from baffling to just plain evil.  Tune in to a game this year when he’s on the mound, hope the Brewers get the lead, and watch.  Tell me I’m wrong.  You won’t be able to.

Rookies of the Year – Pedro Alvarez and Jordan Lyles.  Alvarez has the starting gig at third base in Pittsburgh, and since they figure to suck, they will stick with him through any struggles.  He has mythic power and can hit to all fields.  True, I did kind of pick him because I don’t see any John Jay or Chris Johnson type guys in the rookie class for the NL Central this year, but if someone is going to blow up, it could be Alvarez.  Lyles is barely out of his teens, and his selection here is predicated on him making the big league club at some point, but the Astros have invited him to major league camp as a non-roster invitee, and I don’t think they would have done that if they weren’t going to give him a shot at winning a rotation spot.  The Dodgers did it with Clayton Kershaw and that worked out okay, so why couldn’t it with Lyles.  I’ve seen a couple youtube videos of him and he can get big league hitters out now.  If he can do it for a full season without fading is a question mark right now, and the ‘Stros would likely limit his innings, but he’s a future all star.

Surprise Player of the Year – Johnny Gomes.  Why?  This guy seems to have to win a spot in camp every year, despite always having shown good power, first in Tampa and now in Cincy.  There are certain guys who if you give them 400 plate appearances, are virtual locks to hit 20 home runs.  He’s not much different than guys like Russ Branyan, Marcus Thames, and isn’t much worse than Minnesota’s Michael Cuddyer if you ignore batting average.  Gomes can hit home runs in bunches, rakes lefties, and if he gets consistent playing time, could really have a big year.  You’ll have to live with some strikeouts and an inability to lay off fastballs above the letters, but the upside is worth the risk. 

Random, Non-Baseball Related Blurb That I Felt Like Writing – I hate irresponsible journalism.  Calling what Shaun and I do here “journalism” would be a stretch, but whoever the moron is that wrote the piece about Mark Sanchez having sex with a 17 year old is an embarrasment to anyone who writes, for a living or otherwise.  In New York, 17 is above the age of consent.  The only reason anyone would write that would be to start a furor about Sanchez possibly going to jail. I ask, why?  Why be a douche like that?  While it might make you raise an eyebrow, it’s not illegal.  Not in NY anyway.  Age, in my opinion, is a lousy way to determine ability to consent, but I guess you have to do it somewhere.  I know 40 year olds with the maturity of a toddler who should never be allowed to do anything where procreation is a possibility, but they can.  In ten years, Sanchez will be about 33 and the woman he allegedly had relations with will be 27, and nobody would bat an eyelash.  Don’t get me wrong, kiddy diddling is one of the most despicable things anyone can do.  In my opinion, that’s exactly what the guy who wrote the article about Sanchez was trying to get people to think of Mark Sanchez.  Anyway, I should come up with an original sign off to my articles.  How about, good night, and good luck.  Okay, that’s totally unorignal.  I’m open to ideas.

1) Detroit Tigers – Stud offensive players in Miguel Cabrera and Victor Martinez in the middle of their lineup are as good as any duo in the league.  Jhonny “My Parents are Dyslexic” Peralta will try to remember which direction to hit the ball as he is a former stud prospect turned average big league shortstop.  Carlos Guillen is coming back from yet another knee surgery this season.  He is a quality second baseman, but the 35 year old is less than reliable health wise, so look for Will Rhymes to split time with Guillen and have Guillen play DH when Victor Martinez is behind the dish.  Another guy to keep an eye out for at either short or second, and maybe this is just a personal bias considering I have played with and against the kid since I was 7, Danny Worth.  He will never be a big offensive threat, but he is solid with the glove and in the AL Central and the Tigers lineup, he can certainly be a valuable late inning defensive replacement for Peralta or Guillen and could easily be a quality back end of the line up guy.  At third the Tigers will run with one of the most versatile, least impressive tool wise, but fun to watch players in baseball, Brandon Inge.  Doesn’t matter if he is at third, outfield, catcher, or any other position he is asked to play, guy will go through a wall to make a play.  When V-Mart is not catching, which will be at least half the time, Alex Avila will fill in very nicely.  In the outfield, they will roll out a very good young centerfielder in Austin Jackson, 37 year old Magglio Ordonez in right, and Brennan Boesch in left.  Look for Ryan Rayburn to play quite a bit in right when Magglio is hurt, DHing, or simply benched for playing like a 37 year old in the post steroid era.  Not accusing anyone, just show me a quality 37 year old in the league today.  Now for the part of the Tigers that will win them the division, the starting staff.  Is there anyone in the league with better stuff than Justin Verlander?  Let me help you with the answer….HELL NO!  Guy will saw you off inside with a 99 mph fastball on the hands, followed by a massive curve thrown at your eyes that ends up painting the low outside corner.  And if you can unbuckle your knees enough to get in the box again, he can throw a change-up that will make you look fall forward trying to reach it you were so far off.  Then they will roll out two excellent young pitchers in Max Scherzer and Rick Porcello.  If you haven’t seen these guys pitch, you need to watch them this season, just fun guys to see on the hill.  Phil Coke is a quality #4 pitcher with Brad Penny a very up and down #5.  Jose Valverde is a quality closer, Joel Zumaya could have been great had he not had the elbow trouble, but he is still really good.  Joaquin Benoit and Daniel Schlereth are decent middle relievers and there are two quality prospects in Andrew Oliver and Jacob Turner that could make an impact on this pitching staff this season.

2) Chicago White Sox – Mark Buhrle, Gavin Floyd, John Danks, Jake Peavy, Edwin Jackson…Ace lefty, pretty good righty, crafty lefty, Cy Young talent trying to re-establish his form, top tier prospect that has grossly underachieved but is a better 5^th starter than 90% of the league.  A very odd starting staff makes up the White Sox rotation, but in the right season, could be special.  I see them being oh so close.  They are not good enough to win the division, but based on individual talent, don’t be surprised if this staff leads the league in shut outs and draw comparisons to the 2005 World Series winning pitching staff.  Matt Thorton is a really good closer, but will have competition by early May when Chris Sale is done filling in for Jake Peavy as a starter due to Peavy’s rehab coming into the season.  Sale has great stuff and will be an excellent starter for the White Sox in the years to come.  For Sox fans, pray he doesn’t become a closer or even a stud set up man, too often those guys fail when going back to a starter.  He would be best off being a middle relief/spot starter and let Tony Pena, Jesse Crain, and Will Ohman handle the 7^th and 8^th.  The outfield is solid but nothing spectacular.  Carlos Quentin is not the stud he was a few years ago, but is a quality right fielder.  I really like Alex Rios, but he struggled in the second half last year so no telling how he will come out this year.   If Juan Pierre can get back to a .285-.290 batting average and steals over 60 bags again, he will be a very good leadoff man.  A.J. Pierzynski has been just what you expect from him since joining the White Sox.  He will have another .280/10/55 year, which doesn’t sound like much, but doing that while handling a staff as well as anyone does, is worthy of being called a quality catcher in my book.  At third they will run with Brent Morel, a young decent upside guy that will fit in to the back end of the lineup, not going to scare anyone, but won’t hurt the team either.  Alexei Ramirez is a decent fielding shortstop with some pop.  He and Gordon Beckham create a double play combination that will wow people with their mediocrity.  Neither will be anything great, but neither will hurt the team.  Paul Konerko is their big hitting first baseman and Adam Dunn will do nothing but hit bombs at DH when he is not too busy striking out, which will happen 200 times this year.  Mark Teahen, Omar Vizquel, and Brent Lillibridge are guys available off the bench that fit the 2011 White Sox perfectly…average.  This is a team that would put you to sleep with their run of the mill squad, but when you wake up, they will be right in the hunt for the playoffs, losing the division by only a few games.

3)  Minnesota Twins – A team that does it right, plenty of home grown players and a well managed payroll.  Michael Cuddyer is your typical blue collar Twin.  Delmon Young looks to repeat his excellent last season and look like the prospect he was drafted to be.  Denard Span is a very good center fielder, but he replaced Torii Hunter who was an incredible center fielder for a decade in the twin cities.  Joe Mauer is the best catcher in the league and can do it all.  If Justin Morneau can keep from sliding into second base literally head first, and not get a concussion this season, he will be a big offensive threat for the Twins and make Jim Thome the excellent complimentary bat he was signed to be last year.  Alexi Casilla had a good season last year, but toed the Mendoza Line the season before, so consistency is something to fear there.  Valencia should hit close to .300 with mid-teen power at third, not quite the power you want to compete against the AL East, but seems to be the way of the AL Central.  I would love to tell you all about Tsuyoshi Nishioka, but I live in America and the only thing I know about Japanese baseball is if you grow a sick mustache and light shoe laces on fire you can get manager’s hot daughter…Mr. Baseball was an awesome movie.  Speaking of ‘staches, maybe Carl Pavano is the reason Nishioka signed in Minnesota, he grew a ‘stache, and decided to be yet another player to have good seasons, sign a massive contract with the Yankees, only suck when playing but spending most the time on the DL, then giving them the finger by having a career year the next season.  All the reasons I will forever be a fan of his.  He is in the middle of the staff that includes Francisco Liriano, Scott Baker, and Brian Duensing.  A good fifth starter battle to keep an eye on in Spring Training will be between Nick Blackburn and Kevin Slowey.   Matt Capps will be the closer until Joe Nathan can prove he is completely healthy, and Jose Mijares is an excellent reliever.

4) Cleveland Indians – Young, talented, and inconsistent.  Not a great combination in this veteran heavy, solid division.  Pronk will be looking to get back into his power hitting form while Carlos Santana looks to bounce back from a gruesome injury last season, but Lou Marson is far from the worst backup catcher in baseball.  Asdrubal Cabrera and Luis Valbuena will make for fun young double play combination to watch.  Jayson Nix might be the worst starting third baseman in the league.  I personally believe this season will be Matt LaPorta’s coming out year.  I see .280/30/115 from him.  A huge year compared to his .221/12/41 from last year.  I guess you can call him my Jose Batista this season.  I know Torsten thinks it is a guy that currently has a minor league deal with the Indians in Austin Kearns.  While I don’t see him having a great year, I do see him taking the left field spot from Michael Brantley and having an excellent year in the 5 hole of this lineup.  Grady Sizemore will not get back to his prime years in center, but I do think he is a top 10 center fielder in the game and will be a top 5 type player this season.  Last week I told you Adam Jones should be on the starting lineup of guys you haven’t seen play.  Well, meet the captain, Shin-Soo Choo.  If you take his career and average it out to 162 games, he averages .297/21/95.  He plays a solid right field, his career WAR is 17.8.  So essentially, if you put an average right fielder into right instead of him, the team will have 18 fewer wins than with him in the lineup.  Kinda impressive for a guy on a team that went 69-93 last season.  Then there is the military service portion of his career.  Choo is a native of South Korea, where they have a requirement for all men to serve 2 years in the military before turning 30.  If you are a national athlete, you only have to serve 4 weeks, but Choo failed to show several times due to the baseball schedule conflicts making him obligated to serve the full two years.  If he played baseball this year and did not serve his time in the military, he would never be allowed to enter South Korea again without being arrested.  His one way out, winning gold on the South Korean baseball team at the Asian games this past off season as it would allow him to forgo his military commitment free of repercussion.  How did he do?  Simply lead his team to gold.  Now if only his pitching staff in Cleveland had golden arms they might be able to make a run.  Do they have the guys to do it?  Let’s see…Fausto Carmona is the clear cut #1 with Justin Masterson being an excellent #2 guy.  Carlos Carrasco, Mitch Talbot, and your best friend’s mom round out the staff.  Honestly, after Masterson, the starters are a disaster.  Chris Perez is a decent but not special closer, and guys like Joe Smith, Tony Sipp, and Jensen Lewis will be coming out of the pen.  They can keep the bullpen ERA to the low 4.00’s, but the starting staff will rely on them entirely too much.

5)  Kansas City Royals – They traded their Cy Young pitcher to the Brewers, they are holding hope their prize prospect Alex Gordon will find himself in left field, and they round out their outfield with contending team rejects like Jeff Franceour and Melky Cabrera.  Mike Aviles can be an excellent player, and I think he will be this year, for a shortstop, only he will be playing third and not really impress anyone from there.  But by mid-season, the Royals will be out of it, and they will bring up their next stud third base prospect Mike Moustakas and trade Aviles or Chris Getz to a contender to play second base for them.  Detroit would be a great fit for either of them in my book, and they have a couple decent pitching prospects the Royals could use.  Alcides Escobar will be a good fit for the Royals they received as part of the Grienke trade.  Billy Butler would start at first on my players you have never heard of team, maybe I should stop talking about them and just create a post breaking down that team, with Kila Ka’aihue looking to earn the DH spot out of spring.  Also keep an eye out for Eric Hosmer to break into the bigs this year and make an impact.  Who is left on the staff after Gil Meche retired and Grienke was traded?  Not much.  Luke Hochevar is a quality pitcher, but nowhere near ace worthy.  Then you run with guys like Sean O’Sullivan, Vin Mazzaro, Bruce Chen, Kyle Davies, and Jeff Francis.  Haven’t heard of half those guys, don’t worry, me neither, had to look up depth charts to even see who the other starting candidates were.  The starting staff will be ugly, but surprisingly the bullpen is very good.  Joakim Soria is the best closer you have never….that is it, I am gonna write another blog of the “guys you have never heard of” starting lineup.  Robinson Tejada, Jesse Chavez, and Blake Wood can certainly get guys out. 

AL Central Offensive Player of the Year – Sin-Soo Choo – On what you will see is a cellar heavy award division; Choo will finally become the household name he deserves to be.  He will push the Indians into a playoff race in early August, only for it to slip away from them and land them second to last in the division.  But in those couple weeks people are actually paying attention to the Indians, Choo will be on fire, setting career highs in long balls and RBIs.

AL Central Pitcher of the Year – Justin Masterson – Buhrle and Verlander would be too easy to choose.  Justin Masterson will not have a great win total as he will be playing for the Indians, but look for the baby faced kid not to straighten out his hat, but straighten out his stuff for 16 wins and an ERA under 3.00.  He has excellent stuff and is learning how to be a pitcher.  He can keep his team in the game, and if the Indians offense has the breakout they are due to have, and Perez shuts the door at a consistent rate, Masterson could be an out of nowhere big time pitcher.

AL Central Offensive Rookie of the Year – Eric Hosmer/Mike Moustakas – These two will be in the heart of the Royals lineup for years to come.  Neither will start the season with the big club, nor will either threaten a league rookie of the year award, but both will leave you talking about them by the end of the season and make Royals fans confident in next year….until they realize next year it is still just a bunch of guys with a ton of hype that do not translate to wins..

AL Central Rookie Pitcher of the Year – Aaron Crow/Mike Montgomery/John Lamb – Yes, three pitchers from the Royals.  I would not at all be shocked if the Royals end the season with 3 rookies in the starting rotation, if not more.  Believe it or not, the team has a good core, it is just a matter of keeping the right guys around, and these three starters could really be a strong staff behind Hochevar.

AL Central Surprise Player of the Year – Kila Ka’aihue – He plays for the Royals, Billy Butler is the “star” of the team, Alex Gordon is the washed up prospect they still have hope for, Moustakas is the next player to come up with big time expectations.  But Kila will do just that, kill a ball.  Guy will hit 30 home runs and become the most feared regular DH in the AL Central.

1. San Francisco Giants – It would seem silly to not make the defending World Series champs the favorites to win the division.  Their already anemic offense took a hit with the departure of Juan Uribe and his 20+ home runs from a middle infield position, and re-signing of the awful Pat Burrell to play left field.  However, it was their pitching that did the heavy lifting last season and the outstanding trifecta of Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain and Madison Bumgarner return intact and healthy.  If those three can come close to their 2010 performance, the Giants are going to be tough to beat. Aubrey Huff seems to have found a home in the Bay Area, and he’ll need to continue his strong play.  Andres Torres is probably the most anonymous star in baseball.  Who?  Andres Torres.  Here at the poostain, we would prefer to drink beer instead of do research so in lieu of posting his excellent numbers last season, I’ll just tell you to wikipedia them.  90 wins are probable here, and given the dearth of good teams in this division, they’ll be plenty to repeat.  Another run through the playoffs, though, is unlikely.

2. Los Angeles Dodgers – Kind of a homer selection by me here, but the fact that they have five legitimate starting pitchers for the first time since… uh… a long time ago will keep them in some games.  Clayton Kershaw is the ace and Chad Billingsley has a devastating arsenal (and fragile psyche) and the trio of Kuroda, Lilly and Garland are solid and servicable, if unspectacular.  The sooner they replace closer Jonathan Broxton with the outstanding (if brittle) Hong Chi Kuo (best reliever in baseball who doesn’t have the words Mariano or Rivera in his name), the better off they’ll be.  They added a little bit of power by adding Juan Uribe, Marcus Thames, and re-signing the underrated Rod Barajas.  Problem is, they also added strikeouts in Adam Dunnesque proportions.  And if you don’t get on base, you don’t win much.  Everything changes if Rafael Furcal can repeat his start to 2009 and keep it up for a whole season.  If not, 85 wins is probably the ceiling.

3. Colorado Rockies – They went all in signing Troy Toluwitzki and Carlos Gonzales to long term deals this offseason, and you can’t really blame them considering those two guys are in the top drawer for their positions in the entire sport.  Add to their offensive excellence the fact that my mother could hit 30 home runs in Denver (maybe 25 considering the humidor), they’ll score some runs. The achilles heel is the rotation beyond Ubaldo Jimenez.  He’s awesome, but the Rockies rode him hard down the stretch and he faded noticably at the end of the year, regressing from being friggin awesome to merely very good. There are some rumblings that they’re in the market for Michael Young, despite obvious financial concerns his contract would create, but he would really round out this batting order nicely.  Both with good average and power, and by allowing Jim Tracy to ease the aging and injury-prone Todd Helton to more of a platoon role.  Breakout years by Ian Stewart and Dexter Fowler could propel them into wildcard contention, but realistically, I can’t see them winning more than 80 games.

4. San Diego Padres – Losing Adrian Gonzales, their only offensive threat of any note, is crippling to their offense, which already sucked to begin with.  Veteran Brad Hawpe will replace him at first base, but he has faded badly in recent years after a promising start to his career in Colorado. They’ve got excellent pitching, but I’m pretty sure Mother Teresa could post a sub-3 ERA in that ballpark.  They may hang around up until the all-star break but the inevitable trade of closer Heath Bell is going to sound the death knell to their season.  Orlando Hudson, an excellent defender and half way decent hitter was a nice pickup there, but he would have been better served going to a team with a crack at the post season.  He’s too classy of a guy to languish on a potential cellar dweller. If I were a betting man, and I am, I would take the under on 70 wins.

5. Arizona Diamondbacks – A new philosphy of striking out less led to the departure of Mark Reynolds.  Unfortunately, he also took his 40 home run and 20 stolen base potential with him.  The rotation sucks beyond belief, even though Daniel Hudson showed serious promise when given the opportunity to start last season.  I’m searching for good things to say here, and failing.  The likely path is a full rebuilding plan that will lead to the departure of veteran shortstop Steven Drew, one of their few remaining players of any quality.  He’ll be followed out the door by every other veteran on the roster.  Arizona fans should not fret though.  It’s not like they come to the ballpark anyway.  But if they did, they would get to watch Gerardo Parra, a real prospect with tools comparable to Bobby Abreu.  One young stud, though, does not a team make and a NL worst 100+ losses are a possibility.  Make that a probability.

Offensive Player of the Year – Torres.  Remember him from early in this article.  His combination of pop, speed, and improving plate discipline are fortelling of a monster year.  Other candidates would include Gonzales, Tulowitzki, and Andre Ethier if he can stay healthy for a whole year, but those guys are known quantities.  It doesn’t take a lot of analytical skill, nor does it give you much to brag about when you predict that an established slugger is going to have a big year.  Kind of like predicting that Brad Pitt was going to end up with Angelina Jolie after filming that movie, leaving poor Jennifer Aniston behind.  Oh wait, didn’t she start banging John Mayer?  Every other woman in showbiz was, even if she wasn’t, so we’ll just leave that up there.  And if you’re on Jennifer’s legal team and happen into reading this, I’m just kidding.  Not really, but I think just by saying that I’m avoiding a potential lawsuit.

Pitcher of the Year – Mat Latos. He has absolutely malevolent stuff and pinpoint command to boot.  The fact that he pitches in a cavernous ballpark won’t hurt his peripherals, but he doesn’t really need the help.  Put him on a team with some offensive weapons and he’d be as close to a shoe in for 20 wins as anyone can be.  I’m trying to think of someone to compare him to… and again, failing.  You don’t know this because you can’t see me, but I just took a ten minute break to mainline a beer and help my creative process.  It worked.  He’s a combination of a young Carlos Zambrano without the mental problems and Roger Clemens without the, ahem, alleged steroids.  Throw in a little Adam Wainright for the ease with which he seems to fire his plethora of beautiful pitches over the corners of the strike zone and there you have him.

Rookies – Shaun predicted offensive and pitching rookies, which annoys me slightly.  Then again, he did actual research.  Which is good.  But see, I’m lazy.  Digressing, and working on another beer, I can’t see any rookie pitcher out-performing Kenley Jansen.  He was positively lights out in his late season call up for the Dodgers last year, and considering he has only been a pitcher for about a year, figures to only get better.  He’ll remain anonymous for most of the year because he doesn’t start or close, but the fact that every team is demanding him in return for any trade the Dodgers try to make.  A 100 MPH heater with movement will do that, I guess.  Offensively, I’ll have to go with Kyle Blanks.  I’m really glad we didn’t write these articles last year because he would have been my pick then too.  Thanks to an abysmal start, and subsequently an injury, he retains his rookie status, saving me from having to do some homework for this prediction.  Generally, guys his size (about 6 foot 9 and 300 lbs) have glaring holes in their swings, mainly because of the massive strike zone they provide.  His swing is pretty, though.  Not Ken Griffey Junior pretty, but it’s sweet.  If he can lay off crappy breaking pitches, he’ll get more strikes, and those he can hit.  Far.

Surprise Player of the Year – Russell @#$%ing Martin… really, Shaun?  I’m going to go a different direction here.  Buster Posey.  Thought I forgot about him, didn’t you?  He really is a marvelous talent, but two things are working against him.  Pitchers are going to adjust and pitch him tougher, and despite rumors of a position switch, he’s still a catcher.  When you swing a bat like he does, no manager ever wants to take him out of the lineup, but catchers need rest over a long season.  It’s not going to be a Russell Martinesque collapse for Posey this year, but all the talk about him being the next Mike Piazza type slugging catcher is about one season premature.  Remember what they said about Baltimore’s Matt Wieters.  I do.  I picked him on like 37 of my fantasy teams and he murdered the soul of all of them.  Posey may one day put up massive numbers every year to the tune of .330 and 35 dingers, but it is not this day.  At least I really hope it isn’t… because if it is, the Dodgers have no chance of overtaking the Giants. 

Random Homer Rant – I nearly put my beloved Dodgers in last after seeing that they signed Aaron Miles to a minor league contract.  He may be the best emergency pitcher in baseball (ask Tony LaRussa) but do the Dodgers really need another guy who can play every infield position?  Because Juan Uribe, Jamie Carroll, and Juan Castro aren’t already in town.  For goodness’ sake…

1) Boston Red Sox – With the additions of Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford, the Red Sox have arguably the best lineup in the bigs. They have two legit base stealing threats, and three guys that can put it in the seats on any pitch in Gonzo, Youkilis, and David Ortiz. David Ortiz?!?! Yes, he has started slow the past two seasons but been big through the middle and the end of the season. Pedroia, Youk, and Ellsbury will all be healthy coming into this season again, and so long as they can stay healthy, the Red Sox will be in great shape. J.D. Drew is an injury risk in right, and Mike Cameron is just a big a risk. But Daniel Nava, Ryan Kalish, and Darnell McDonald all got good experience last season, and don t be surprised to see Josh Reddick break camp with the club and act as a Dave Roberts type late game base runner. Scutaro is competently holding down short, but Jed Lowrie can play all 4 infield positions and bring some pop to each. Behind the dish, Saltalamacchia will get the chance to hold down the starting job and potentially come into his own with the Green Monster acting as a slump buster/confidence builder for any young hitter, while Jason Varitek gets a game or two a week behind the dish. If there is a way for the Red Sox to improve, it would come by a trade of Lars Anderson for an upgrade at catcher or a young potential replacement in right field. The Red Sox have two of the best young arms in John Lester and Clay Buckholtz. Josh Beckett and John Lackey will both have to bounce back, Beckett likely will, Lackey is a big question mark as he has never pitched well in Fenway. Daisuke still has the 5th spot in the rotation, and despite his immense disappointment compared to his hype coming out of Japan, he is still one of the better 5th starters in the league. Jonathon Papelbon should not be the closer anymore, but he will open the season there, Bard has closer stuff, and only time will tell before we see how Jenks pitches in the seventh rather than the ninth. The Red sox also signed a few middle relief guys that can get lefties out despite most being RHP, and Wakefield can fill in if a starter gets chased early in a game or as a spot starter.

2) Toronto Blue Jays – This is the team I have wavered on the most. They started at third in the division, then slid all the way to last, first hint I am higher on a certain team in this division than most, then they jumped back up to second in my rankings. The trade for Juan Rivera to play left allows Jose Bautista to move back to third base, and while he will not hit 50+ home runs again, in the mid to upper 30 s is still huge from your third baseman. That would ensure Edwin Encarnacion will be the DH, and despite is struggles last season, he still has pop in his bat and can hit for a decent average, will strike out too much, but can be a very talented bat from the 7th in the order range. Adam Lind will hold down first base and if he plays like he did in 2009, will be a very good threat at first. Yunel Escobar really settled in after being traded to Toronto with his average jumping from .238 when he left Atlanta to .275 in Toronto. Aaron Hill is an often overlooked second baseman who does a ton of things well, but none great, so let s skip past him here too. Juan Rivera will have a career year in a very hitter friendly league like the AL East. Travis Snider is proving to be a guy that can be a high quality right fielder for years to come. If Rajai Davis can lift his OBP from the mid .350 s to the lower to mid .400 s he can easily steal 50 bags becoming RBI potential for Batista, Rivera, Lind, and Snider. Jose Molina will act as a day game starter at catcher and be able to be a veteran catcher to help mold J.P. Arencibia who is struggled when first getting called up last season, but settled in nicely and can bring 20-25 HR power and a .270-.270 average from the catching position. The real question, how will he handle this pitching staff that is the 4th or 5th best in the division? The fact the Blue Jays immediately shipped Mike Napoli to the Rangers after acquiring him from the Angels says they have great confidence in Arencibia. Ricky Romero, Brandon Morrow, and Brett Cecil are excellent 3-4-5 pitchers, only problem, they will have to be 1-2-3 pitchers. The Blue Jays will have to hope Kyle Drabek will prove to be a potential front of the line starter for them to finish second in the division. And Jesse Litsch can be a very serviceable fifth starter. Frank Francisco is an excellent addition to the back end of the bullpen. Octavio Dotel, Jon Rauch, Jason Frasor, and Casey Janssen make for a very good middle of the bullpen.

3) New York Yankees – What do Yankee fans use as birth control?…Their personalities .sorry, still a Red Sox fan. While I laughed every time a Yankee free agent target signed with someone else, the move that made me laugh the most was the signing of Russell Martin. Martin was a really good catcher for a couple years for LA, but as soon as he honored his mother by adding the J. to the back of his jersey, he fell apart, lucky for him, the Yankees don t allow names on the back of jerseys. Add that to the fact he was catching 150+ games a year, it was only a matter of time before his stats fell off. Allow Jorge Posada to get a random game behind the plate when he is not DHing and Francisco Cervelli spelling him at least once a week, and I would not be shocked if Martin is the best catcher in the AL East this season. Mark Texeira will be Mark Texeira, a gold glove caliber first baseman with a .285 average and 30-35 home runs. Robinson Cano will take a step back this year in his numbers compared to last year, but will still be one of the best second baseman in the league. Derek Jeter is more of a presence in the clubhouse than a presence on the diamond these days, but I will admit, he is the only Yankee in history I would love to shake his hand and tell him it has been a pleasure watching the way he plays the game. A guy whose hand I certainly wouldn t want to shake is Alex Rodriguez. Probably cause I am not sure they work anymore since Cameron Diaz had to feed him popcorn at the Super Bowl, impressive he stopped kissing himself in the mirror long enough to find a washed up former sex symbol. He will not have an A-Rod type season this year, he will only hit about 27-28 home runs, but as has been the case the past three seasons, his average will drop down to about .260-.265. Brett Gardner would be just another average left fielder on any other team, but because he plays in New York his speed makes him a borderline all-star? I would take 20 other left fielders over him. Curtis Granderson is one of the genuine people in baseball, only thing I have negative to say about him is he is a Yankee, so to avoid me vomiting while writing this, let me just move on. Crap, next is Nick Swisher plays the game right, enjoys it and brings joy to a locker room, but don t expect him to have anywhere close to the season he had last year, it was a career year. So basically, at the plate, the Yankees all had career years outside of Martin, Jeter and Texeira, none of the Yankees with have seasons as impressive as last season, and they still didn t win the division. Now to their pitching staff where Andy Pettitte has retired and they missed on Cliff Lee. CC Sabathia will be an excellent pitcher as he always is, but when will his innings catch up with him? Then you have Phil Hughes and A.J. Burnett who are your typical top 10 or so number 2 & 3 starter. Then they will run with an average Ivan Nova and journeyman Sergio Mitre. Mariano Rivera is, well, the greatest closer of all time but he has also finally caught up to his number, and at 42, how much does his arm have left? Rafael Soriano is a stud set up man, but despite his great year last year, just an ok closer. David Robertson, Boone Logan, and Pedro Feliciano make for a middle relief that won t scare anyone, but will still get the job done more often than not. Then there is the question of what to do with Joba Chamberlain I say release more DUI videos cause his was funny but on a pure baseball level, time to trade him. May sound extreme, but the Yankees indecision on whether to make him a reliever or a starter has ruined him. Send him to an average team in a small market with a young hitter looking for a contract, say Milwaukee and Prince Fielder, and let Joba re-establish himself without the lights of NYC, and let Prince Fielder be the DH for $20 million a year. Seems like the Yankee way to me.

4) Baltimore Orioles – Here is a team I am really high on, not just because of the effect Buck Showalter had on them at the end of the season last year, but because of the exiting young talent on this team. Everyone has heard the hype on Matt Weiters, will he live up to it finally? Well, I am pretty sure he will bat better than .249. I see him advancing to 15 home runs, 80 RBI s, and an average above .280. Derek Lee is looking to prove he still has it, and what better place than with a young, potentially underrated team to do it. There is no real pressure if he struggles, but if he hits the ball at all like he did in Chicago, he could become a feel good story for a surprise contending team. On the other corner you have the strikeout king Mark Reynolds. While he has the 3 biggest strikeout seasons, I see him cutting back his K rate this season under Showalter down to 180. Not exactly a great stat, but a huge reduction from him. Take into account his 30 long balls and an expected rise in average up to the .240 range, again not an impressive number, but with a ballsy manager like Showalter who I can see batting him 6th or 7th, can be one of the more threatening last third hitters in the league. J.J. Hardy is a guy that seems to fit the AL East way of this season, another guy that had massive potential that has another shot in a lineup that won t focus on his talents. But if Hardy struggles, Cesar Izturis and Robert Andino can step in at short when they are not playing for the often injured Brian Roberts. Vladimir Guerrero looks to keep his form from a big season last year, and should have another big season in the hitter friendly AL East. Felix Pie played well year last season when healthy. He could be a very dangerous #9 hitter. Adam Jones is belongs in the starting line-up of players the average baseball fan has never heard of. And Nick Markakis has been a top 10 right fielder for years. All that said, don t sleep on Nolan Reimold taking an outfield spot if they struggle or Luke Scott taking over if Derek Lee doesn t play like Derek Lee, nothing like a little competition in the most competitive second place race in the league. Jeremy Guthrie will head a rotation that can be extremely hit and miss, no pun intended. Guthrie and Mike Matusz make for a very strong front of the rotation, while Justin Duchscherer is a former all star looking to get back into form. Chris Tillman is a high upside young pitcher but has had back to back 2-5 seasons with an ERA over 5. Then the final spot will be a battle between Jake Arrieta and Brad Bergesen. Neither have anything special to speak of, which may open for a surprise fifth starter in Zachary Britton. Kevin Gregg is an above average closer with an underrated mesh of relievers in Mike Gonzalez, Alfredo Simon, Jim Johnson, and Rick VandenHurk behind him.

5) Tampa Bay Rays – I like the way they run the team, and I really like Joe Maddon. I really wanted to keep them out of the cellar because despite their losses this off season, they do have a quality team which leads me to my bold call for the division. Despite finishing last in the division, they will have a record of 81-81, making every team .500 or better. Manny Ramirez should settle in well as a DH, and Johnny Damon just might be a decent left fielder again. B.J. Upton can mash, he just had a poor season last year but will play well again this year, and Ben Zobrist will continue being an above average utility guy stuck in right field. Sean Rodriguez and Reid Brignac should be back up utility guys, but instead will be starting for a team in the midst of payroll cuts. Dan Johnson has never played more than 117 games, and while his projections call for 25-30 homers in a full season, you cannot count on it from a 32 year old who has never played a full season. John Jaso is just another in a long line of below average catchers in the majors. Apparently if you can hit or field, you are moved to a different position, catchers in Major League Baseball are despicable taken as a whole in comparison to any other position. Evan Longoria was signed to a semi-long term deal just days after breaking into the bigs, and could prove to be one of the greatest contracts ever. Not only is he the best third baseman in baseball, he is top 5 players in the game today. Where the Rays really impress me is the pitching staff. David Price has some of the best stuff from a left hander you will see. James Big Game Shields, better known by me as Jamie Shields back when I played against him in high school, is hardly a big game pitcher. He has stuff, but can t quite seem to put it all together when needed. Then you have Jeff Neiman and Wade Davis, both guys that can eat innings while having the potential of getting 15 wins if they get some run support that, in comparison to the other teams in the division, will be damn near impossible to get. Then you have Jeremy Hellickson, a guy that will be an ace for the team in the coming years, but won t live up to the expectations on him this season. Kyle Farnsworth, J.P. Howell, Andy Sonnanstine, and Joel Peralta are all above average middle relief to set up men, unfortunately, none are closer material. The Rays are back to where they were just 4 seasons ago, watch out for them next season as the Manny Ramirez and Johnny Damon signings were just fillers to give Desmond Jennings a little more time, and allow for high potential free agents to move there next year with high priced free agents the year after with a World Series run that 2013 season. Call them the Devil Rays again, because they will be stuck in the underworld of the AL East this season.

AL East Offensive Player of the Year – Adrian Gonzalez – I truly hesitated on this one. Don t want to seem like too much of a homer, nor do I want to seem like I am buying into the hype of the huge year so many major publications are calling for. I call 35 home runs, 115 RBI s, a .290 average. The other threats in the line-up will boost his numbers to, but not greatly exceeding his career highs, except in doubles. He has not hit more than 46 doubles in a single season, but with his ability to use the whole field, he will slap 60 doubles by using the Green Monster in left and the deep triangle in right center. He will have a great season, but unfortunately struggle in the playoffs due to lack of experience and being used to playing in a small market, but the rest of the Red Sox will help lift them to .don t think I am going to give it up just yet, but there will be a full playoff preview before the spring training games even start.

AL East Pitcher of the Year – David Price – He will have another WHIP just over 1 and an ERA just under 3. Due to the lack of depth on offence, he will end up with only 15 wins after the lack of a reliable closer costs him 4-5 wins, but he will lower his walks to under 60 and threaten 200 strikeouts. He has the best stuff from a left hander in the league. His fastball is only around94-95, but his slider has hitters needing knee braces after buckling them so bad. Price will firmly establish himself as a perennial Cy Young candidate after another huge season.

AL East Offensive Rookie of the Year – J.P. Arencibia – Before the Manny Ramirez and Johnny Damon signings, Desmond Jennings was the clear cut rookie of the year favorite. Now he will likely start in AAA and not take over a starting job until mid-season. But Arencibia hit over .300 in AAA last year with 32 home runs. He struggled getting acclimated to the show last year, but full spring training with the big club and being an opening day catcher, I see him being a .280, 25 HR, 85 RBI player this season. His expectations will rise next year and never live up to the hype, but this year, not only will he be the best rookie hitter in the AL East this season, he will compete for the Rookie of the Year award for the American League.

AL East Rookie Pitcher of the Year – Zach Britton – Nope, not Kyle Drabek, and not Jeremy Hellickson, the surprise Rookie pitcher of the year in the AL East is Zach Britton. I see him breaking camp as a long relief guy, becoming a starter before two months, and running with it. I see him 12-5, with an ERA around 3.50, and 100 K s. Drabek will have more wins, Hellickson will have more strikeouts, but the opponent s batting average and WHIP will be in Britton s favor. He has a great sinker and will be a great ground ball pitcher. Think Derek Lowe, nothing that knocks you off your feet stuff wise, but in the offensive juggernaut that is the American League, especially in the East with the hitters parks, a groundball pitcher can go far, and Britton will be that guy.

AL East Surprise Player of the Year – Russell Martin – Don t tell Torsten, as he despises Russell Martin, but with the ballparks Russell will be playing in, and the fact he will be spelled more often than he was in LA, he just might get back to, and potentially exceed his early years as a Dodger. He will have a good enough year to convince Brian Cashman to trade Jesus Montero. Martin will become a top 10-15 quality catcher again, Montero will be traded for a quality pitcher, and then Joba and Eduardo Nunez will be sent to Milwaukee for Prince Fielder. Meanwhile Martin will resurrect himself into a career .285/25/85 catcher, with his best season coming this year batting over .300, over 30 home runs, and driving in 90 runners while batting in the last third of the lineup.