2014 NFL Mock Draft: Shaun’s Picks

I did six different mock drafts, all looking at different ways to fill certain needs or by taking a look at draft prospect rankings that differed significantly from the norm just to see different options for the first round. I then took all six mocks, added a bunch of my own bias, and came up with my final and official mock draft. This is somewhere between what I think will happen and what I think should happen. If you are interested in seeing the six other mock drafts, they can be found here.

 

1) Houston Texans: Jadeveon Clowney – DE/OLB – South Carolina – Clowney is the best talent in the draft in years, making him an easy number one pick. There has been some buzz about Khalil Mack possibly being the guy based on scheme versatility, but lining up Clowney on the opposite side of the line as J.J. Watt could make for one of the greatest defensive lines ever.

 

2) St. Louis Rams::Jake Matthews – OT – Texas A&M – Most boards have Greg Robinson going here, and I originally did too, but the Rams need help now and Matthews is probably the most NFL ready tackle in the draft. Robinson has the higher upside and will likely be the one selected, but he also has bust potential, and at this point in the Rams development, they can’t afford a but at offensive tackle.

 

3) Jacksonville Jaguars: Sammy Watkins – WR – Clemson – With many reports that Justin Blackmon will not be playing at all in 2014, the Jaguars need a playmaking receiver they can count on.  Watkins is as impressive a wide receiver I have seen in college football since Larry Fitzgerald at Pitt.

 

4) Cleveland Browns: C.J. Mosley – ILB – Alabama – In my other mock drafts, I found the Browns could probably get Mosley all the way down at pick 26, but he fits the need best here. Sure they need a quarterback, but the thought that each of the top three will be gone by then just doesn’t seem likely to me. They need someone that can be a leader in the middle of that defense, and Mosley can be just that.

 

5) Oakland Raiders: Khalil Mack – OLB/DE – Buffalo – People have said Mack is the surest pass rusher to come into the draft since Aaron Curry, and we have seen how well that went. I don’t see him being the bust Curry was, but I also don’t see him being a league leader in sacks. The Raiders need talent at every position, and lots of it, so look for them to take the best player on the board

 

6) Atlanta Falcons: Eric Ebron – TE – North Carolina – Julio Jones has proved to be an injury risk and the team has lost a future Hall of Famer in Tony Gonzalez, so a playmaking tight end is an easy selection. Ebron is one of the most talented receiving tight ends in the draft in some time, and could be a real star on a team like the Falcons.

 

7) Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Greg Robinson – OT – Auburn – The Bucs might not know who their long term quarterback is going to be, but regardless of who it is, they will need to protect him. Robinson has the most natural tools of any offensive lineman in the draft, he just doesn’t have the polish. He has brute strength and is very athletic. He can protect the quarterback and blow up the defense on running plays, making him a perfect fit in Tampa.

 

8) Minnesota Vikings: Darqueze Dennard – CB – Michigan State – Defensive back might not be the most pressing need for the Vikings, and with them declining Christian Ponder’s fifth year option, they could very well go quarterback here, but Dennard might be too tempting to pass up. Unlike most of the corners in this draft, he has number one corner upside rather than the nickel corner profile of most guys. In an incredibly pass happy division, adding another play making corner could benefit the Vikings moving forward.

 

9) Buffalo Bills: Mike Evans – WR – Texas A&M – The Bills had some young receivers show flashes of brilliance last season, to go with flashes of rookie mistakes. I was tempted to put Marqise Lee as a surprise pick here to give them the duo the USC fans became used to of Lee and Robert Woods, but Mike Evans is the big bodied receiver that can wreak havoc in the AFC East.

 

10) Detroit Lions: Justin Gilbert – CB – Oklahoma State – Detroit ranked 23rd in the NFL in passing yards allowed in 2013 and 28th in sacks. They have spent plenty of money and draft picks on the defensive line, but really need help on the back end. Gilbert might be the most athletic of the first round corners, but he also needs the most refining. He will get beat by the top receivers in the division, but he should make plenty of big plays too.

 

11) Tennessee Titans: Teddy Bridgewater – QB – Louisville – I am not one of those people who think this draft is bad at quarterback, but I also don’t think there is a real star available either. There are a lot of quality game managers who have the upside of someone the likes of Joe Flacco. If there is one player that can become a star, it is Bridgewater, but he needs to be in the right environment to do so. He will struggle in cold weather locations like the East and North divisions, and while Nashville has it’s cold stretches, games in Jacksonville, and two stadiums with a roof on it (Indianapolis and Houston) should allow Bridgewater to really shine.

 

12) New York Giants: Aaron Donald – DT – Pittsburgh – The Giants have had the mot success when they have disruptive pass rushers off the edge, but Donald could give them an all around disruptor right up the middle. Donald might be the second most talented player in this draft, and can be an absolute steal at 12, but defensive tackle is actually pretty deep in this draft and is not a major need for the teams at the top, so Giants fans should be very happy if Donald gets to them.

 

13) St. Louis Rams: Ha-Ha Clinton-Dix – S – Alabama – Clinton-Dix to the Rams at 13 has been the longest consistent pick in mock drafts ever since the draft order was determined. The Rams have decent corners, but their safeties are a major weakness. Clinton-Dix could step in and make a major impact right away.

 

14) Chicago Bears: Jason Verrett – CB – TCU – While the Bears have an excellent duo of starting corners, both are over the age of 30, so it is time to start grooming the heir apparent. Verrett is under 5’10”, so he will probably be a lined up on the traditional slot receiver, and he ran a sub-4.40 40, so he can run with the best of them.

 

15) Pittsburgh Steelers: Brandin Cooks – WR – Oregon State – Over the past two seasons the Steelers have lost Mike Wallace, Emmanuel Sanders, and Jericho Cotchery, leaving them with a massive need at wide receiver. Cooks would join former Oregon State teammate Markus Wheaton up in Pittsburgh to give them a pair of burners opposite number one receiver Antonio Brown.

 

16) Dallas Cowboys: Calvin Pryor – S – Louisville – The Cowboys just might be set to pick in in the top ten of the draft next year. They need help at almost every position on the defensive side as their depth was exposed as a massive weakness last season. They will likely spend the majority of their picks on the defensive side of the ball, and Pryor would be a fantastic start.

 

17) Baltimore Ravens: Taylor Lewan – OT – Michigan – Michael Oher has a fantastic story which turned into a quality movie, but it turned out he wasn’t a very good NFL player. Eugene Monroe is set in at left tackle, and Lewan has never played right tackle, but if he slips this far, he is a must pick.

 

18) New York Jets: Odell Beckham Jr. – WR – LSU – If the Falcons don’t pick Ebron at six, he is the pick here, but since he is off the board, the best receiver is the obvious pick, and for me it is Beckham Jr. The Jets clearly are not sold on Geno Smith at quarterback given the fact they brought in Michael Vick, but it is too early to add another QB to their roster. Look for the Jets to add other offensive weapons to the recently signed Erik Decker and Chris Johnson to help on offense.

 

19) Miami Dolphins: Zack Martin – OT/G – Notre Dame –The Dolphins lost two starters on the offensive line due to scandal in 2013, so they need help on the offensive line. Martin can play either tackle or guard, both positions of need, and he can play right from the start.

 

20) Arizona Cardinals: Blake Bortles – QB – UCF – The Cardinals were the best team in the league that did not make the playoffs in 2013, and were arguably better than some that did taste the postseason, so drafting a quarterback rather than an immediate need may be tough, but Bortles makes it easier. Bortles would get the chance to sit behind Carson Palmer for part of the season but will work his way into playing time. Bortles would be a fantastic pick for the Cardinals.

 

21) Green Bay Packers: Marqise Lee – WR – USC – At first glance, with Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb already on the team, receiver doesn’t look like a need, but the depth at the receiver position was exposed in 2013 after their receivers suffered injuries. If Lee was in the draft last year, he would have been a top-10 guy, but he will side this year, and become a steal for the Packers.

 

22) Philadelphia Eagles: Ryan Shazier – OLB – Ohio State – Trent Cole and Connor Barwin are the current outside backers for the Eagles, and neither of them are exactly spring chickens. Shazier is the top outside linebacker on a lot of boards after Anthony Barr has slipped for a lot of teams. One of the two will likely go here, and my money is on it being Shazier, although I believe Barr is the better player.

 

23) Kansas City Chiefs: Xavier Su’a-Filo – G – UCLA – Su’a Filo being the first round pick for the Chiefs the season after they went tackle with the top overall pick last season, but he will help create to core of a team that will compete to win championships for many years to come.

 

24) Cincinnati Bengals: Kyle Fuller – CB – Virginia Tech – The Bengals lost their defensive coordinator and two of their top corners are already into their thirties. Fuller is a quality corner that can serve as the dime back in his first season but be a legit starter in a year.

 

25) San Diego Chargers: Louis Nix III – DT – Notre Dame – The Chargers need a true nose tackle, and that is just what Nix is. He is the type of guy that could drop to the third of fourth round, or go as early as 25. Maybe this is my Notre Dame fandom shining through, but I think he is a difference maker so long as the team determines his knees won’t be an issue moving forward.

 

26) Cleveland Browns: Johnny Manziel – QB – Texas A&M – I don’t like Manziel. I don’t get how he has been so successful, but he has been. Eventually I fully believe his antics will cause him to go down in flames, and is there any more fitting city for him to do that in than Cleveland? I think not.

 

27) New Orleans Saints: Bradley Roby – CB – Ohio State – The Saints got significantly better on defense in 2013, but they currently have Champ Bailey listed as a starting corner on their depth chart, making corner a desperate need, and Roby is the best available.

 

28) Carolina Panthers: Cyrus Kouandjio – OT – Alabama – The Panthers offensive line is an embarrassment for a team that has Super Bowl aspirations, as are their receivers. Kouandjio is an incredibly underrated offensive lineman and I think is going to be really good, maybe even make a Pro Bowl or two.

 

29) New England Patriots: Stephon Tuitt – DE/DT – Notre Dame – Tuitt is a top-10 talent, but an his makeup are off the board. If a team can take an outspoken, me-first player and turn him into a team-first mute who does his talking on the field, it is the Patriots. The Patriots are a great fit for this guy.

 

30) San Francisco 49ers: Kony Ealy – DE – Missouri – The 49ers need an edge rusher, and this could be another spot for Anthoy Barr, but a guy that can rush with his hand on the ground is a bigger need. Ealy fits that need and would be my pick for them.

 

31) Denver Broncos: Jordan Matthews – WR – Vanderbilt – I absolutely love this kids game. In the first game of the season he got hit so hard he was puking on the field. He came off the field for one play, then went back in and made one of the biggest catches of the college football season. He went on to break several SEC receiver records. With Decker gone, Matthews could fill that role, and might even be better.

 

32) Seattle Seahawks: Ra’Shede Hageman – DT – Minnesota – I saw a lot of Hageman this season, and he looked fantastic. He could very well be the second best defensive tackle in this draft, and would fit the Seahawks perfectly.

 

Round 2

#

Team

Player

Pos

School

1 (33).

Houston Texans

Tom Savage

QB

Pittsburgh

2 (34).

Washington Redskins

Anthony Barr

OLB

UCLA

3 (35).

Cleveland Browns

Kelvin Benjamin

WR

Florida State

4 (36).

Oakland Raiders

Derek Carr

QB

Fresno State

5 (37).

Atlanta Falcons

Morgan Moses

OT

Virginia

6 (38).

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Davante Adams

WR

Fresno State

7 (39).

Jacksonville Jaguars

Jimmy Garoppolo

QB

Eastern Illinois

8 (40).

Minnesota Vikings

Chris Borland

ILB

Wisconsin

9 (41).

Buffalo Bills

Dee Ford

DE

Auburn

10 (42).

Tennessee Titans

Carlos Hyde

RB

Ohio State

11 (43).

New York Giants

Cody Latimer

WR

Indiana

12 (44).

St. Louis Rams

Gabe Jackson

G

Mississippi State

13 (45).

Detroit Lions

Jimmie Ward

S

Northern Illinois

14 (46).

Pittsburgh Steelers

Lamarcus Joyner

CB

Florida State

15 (47).

Dallas Cowboys

Demarcus Lawrence

DE/OLB

Boise State

16 (48).

Baltimore Ravens

Marcus Martin

C

USC

17 (49).

New York Jets

Austin Seferian-Jenkins

TE

Washington

18 (50).

Miami Dolphins

Bishop Sankey

RB

Washington

19 (51).

Chicago Bears

Deone Bucannon

S

Washington State

20 (52).

Arizona Cardinals

Jeremiah Attaochu

OLB

Georgia Tech

21 (53).

Green Bay Packers

Jace Amaro

TE

Texas Tech

22 (54).

Philadelphia Eagles

Stanley Jean-Baptiste

CB

Nebraska

23 (55).

Cincinnati Bengals

David Yankey

G

Stanford

24 (56).

San Francisco 49ers

Jarvis Landry

WR

LSU

25 (57).

San Diego Chargers

Martavis Bryant

WR

Clemson

26 (58).

New Orleans Saints

Kyle Van Noy

OLB

BYU

27 (59).

Indianapolis Colts

Allen Robinson

WR

Penn State

28 (60).

Carolina Panthers

Keith McGill

CB

Utah

29 (61).

San Francisco 49ers

Weston Richburg

C

Colorado State

30 (62).

New England Patriots

Troy Niklas

TE

Notre Dame

31 (63).

Denver Broncos

Phillip Gaines

CB

Rice

32 (64).

Seattle Seahawks

Ja’Wuan James

OT

Tennessee

 

 

 

Round 3

#

Team

Player

Pos

School

1 (65).

Houston Texans

Antonio Richardson

OT

Tennessee

2 (66).

Washington Redskins

Joel Bitonio

OT/G

Nevada

3 (67).

Oakland Raiders

Donte Moncrief

WR

Ole Miss

4 (68).

Atlanta Falcons

Telvin Smith

OLB

Florida State

5 (69).

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Pierre Desir

CB

Lindenwood

6 (70).

Jacksonville Jaguars

Tre Mason

RB

Auburn

7 (71).

Cleveland Browns

Ka’Deem Carey

RB

Arizona

8 (72).

Minnesota Vikings

A.J. McCarron

QB

Alabama

9 (73).

Buffalo Bills

Billy Turner

OT

North Dakota St.

10 (74).

New York Giants

Jeremy Hill

RB

LSU

11 (75).

St. Louis Rams

Brandon Coleman

WR

Rutgers

12 (76).

Detroit Lions

Scott Crichton

DE

Colorado State

13 (77).

San Francisco 49ers

Marcus Roberson

CB

Florida

14 (78).

Dallas Cowboys

Caraun Reid

DT

Princeton

15 (79).

Baltimore Ravens

Kareem Martin

DE

North Carolina

16 (80).

New York Jets

Trai Turner

G

LSU

17 (81).

Miami Dolphins

Dakota Dozier

G

Furman

18 (82).

Chicago Bears

DaQuan Jones

DT

Penn State

19 (83).

Cleveland Browns

Cyril Richardson

G

Baylor

20 (84).

Arizona Cardinals

Terrence Brooks

S

Florida State

21 (85).

Green Bay Packers

Marcus Smith

DE

Louisville

22 (86).

Philadelphia Eagles

Dominique Easley

DT

Florida

23 (87).

Kansas City Chiefs

Bruce Ellington

WR

South Carolina

24 (88).

Cincinnati Bengals

Zach Mettenberger

QB

LSU

25 (89).

San Diego Chargers

Bashaud Breeland

CB

Clemson

26 (90).

Indianapolis Colts

Trent Murphy

OLB/DE

Stanford

27 (91).

New Orleans Saints

Dri Archer

RB/WR

Kent State

28 (92).

Carolina Panthers

Paul Richardson

WR

Colorado

29 (93).

New England Patriots

Travis Swanson

C

Arkansas

30 (94).

San Francisco 49ers

Jackson Jeffcoat

DE/OLB

Texas

31 (95).

Denver Broncos

Shayne Skov

ILB

Stanford

32 (96).

Minnesota Vikings

Brandon Thomas

G/OT

Clemson

33 (97).

Pittsburgh Steelers

Will Sutton

DT

Arizona State

34 (98).

Green Bay Packers

Dion Bailey

S

USC

35 (99).

Baltimore Ravens

Ego Ferguson

DT

LSU

36 (100).

San Francisco 49ers

Jordan Tripp

OLB

Montana

 

2014 NFL Mock Draft – Torsten’s Picks

Who doesn’t like making a mockery of things, especially the NFL draft. Before we get started, a few points.

·         The player listed will be who I think the team WILL select, not SHOULD select, though that player will often be mentioned in the comments too.

·         I won’t be mocking trade scenarios. While it’s an absolute certainty that there will be some trading up and down going on, it doesn’t work. The possibilities may also be mentioned in the pick comments, but the projected pick is who I think the team will pick, postulating that they keep it.

·         I understand I’m in the minority, but I’m not a scheme guy. I believe a guy can play football, or he can’t. So whether a team plays a 3-4 or a 4-3, are you telling me Khalil Mack doesn’t make their defense better? Exactly. Ok, moving on.

 

1.       Houston Texans – Jadeveon Clowney, DE, South Carolina: He’s the most talented player in the draft, and I don’t think the Texans will be able to resist the temptation of a pass rush featuring Clowney and JJ Watt. Personally, I take Khalil Mack here, who has a slightly lower ceiling but is more of a “sure thing,” and fills a position that currently is more of a need. But it’s hard to argue against Clowney. I think the persisting questions about his work ethic are a little overblown. Defenses won’t be able to triple team him with Watt on the other end.

2.       St. Louis Rams – Greg Robinson, OT, Auburn: They’re featuring a power run attack. Robinson is the best run blocking tackle to come out of the draft in ages. Match made in heaven, right? Well, you don’t know what you are going to get from the current brain trust of Fisher and Snead. They’ve shown shrewdness and acumen with some of their drafting and signing. They’ve also shown shocking incompetence and lack of forethought. I think they trade the pick if a good enough offer comes along, but they absolutely must upgrade the tackle position in round one, be it with Robinson, or another capable guy like Matthews or Lewan.

3.       Jacksonville Jaguars – Blake Bortles, QB, Central Florida: After the Blaine Gabbert fiasco, they’ll probably be reticent to use another high pick on a quarterback. But they did resign Chad Henne, and while he isn’t a long term solution, the classy veteran can mentor Bortles for a year or so. Unlike Gabbert, he wouldn’t have to jump right out of the frying pan and into the fire. Bortles has the reputation of being a little raw, but having the most upside, even though I hate that word,

4.       Cleveland Browns – Khalil Mack, OLB, Buffalo: I don’t know if this is awesome value here, or if this draft is just really deep. Probably the latter. Sometimes it’s hard to ascertain exactly what you’re going to get when you draft a star player from a smaller school that plays against iffy competition. With Mack, this is not the case. He is all that, several bags of chips, and as close as you can get to a guaranteed star.

5.       Oakland Raiders – Teddy Bridgewater, QB, Louisville: It’s pretty much a certainty that the Raiders won’t be as horrid as they were last year. The Matt Schaub acquisition would appear to give them some time and possibly wait until the middle rounds for a quarterback, but the opportunity to get Bridgewater might be too tempting. If I’m the Raiders, I would go after Sammy Watkins. Perhaps being successful with the drafting of a receiver in the first round can erase some of the stink from the Darius Heyward-Bey disaster.

6.       Atlanta Falcons – Eric Ebron, TE, North Carolina: How many years have they been talking about Atlanta bringing in the successor to Tony Gonzalez? Well, Gonzalez actually IS retired now. They didn’t draft Zach Ertz or Tyler Eifert this year. Do they have choice this year? I think their preference is probably trading up to a position where they can get Clowney to address their woeful pass rush, but I don’t think they’ll be too disappointed with Ebron.   

7.       Tampa Bay Bucs – Sammy Watkins, WR, Clemson: The Bucs would be delighted if Watkins dropped to them at the 7th spot. Of course, that’s no guarantee. The Raiders and Jacksonville also have a big need at the receiver position. Don’t believe the Manziel stories here. Not happening.

8.       Minnesota Vikings – Jake Matthews, OT, Texas A&M: I don’t buy the Manziel stories here either. The team’s best player, running back Adrian Peterson, is beginning to entire the twilight portion of his career, and Manziel is not a plug and play starter. He’ll need a year or two to develop, and if they don’t want to end up in a situation where Peterson leverages a trade, they’ll make do with Cassel, who isn’t as terrible as you think if you give him protection. Another good tackle to pair with Kalil would do that.

9.       Buffalo Bills – Ha Ha Clinton Dix, S, Alabama: It just so happens that the team lost Jairus Byrd to the Saints in free agency, and the best available safety is on the board for them. And while he’s maybe a little bit of a reach at 9, it shouldn’t be enough to deter a team from filling a need. Taylor Lewan is also a possibility here because he’s the best remaining offensive lineman, and they’re invested in keeping EJ Manuel healthy.

10.   Detroit Lions – Mike Evans, WR, Texas A&M: There’s been a lot of chatter about Sammy Watkins here but I doubt he’d last, and I’m not convinced Detroit will want to trade the assets it would take to move up. No worries, though. Evans, is not much of a step down, if at all. And gone will be the days that defenses can octuple team Megatron.

11.   Tennessee Titans – Darqueze Dennard, CB, Michigan State: The Titans too end up in the position where they can fill the void created by their biggest free agent departure (Alterraun Verner). That is, of course, if you don’t count Chris Johnson, who was released and subsequently signed by the Jets.

12.   New York Giants – Taylor Lewan, OT, Michigan: The Giants will be counting their lucky stars if Lewan drops to them. Their offensive line play last season was nothing short of cataclysmic. There’s no possible way that Eli Manning is as bad as he was last year. He’s won two Superbowls when he’s been kept upright.

13.   St. Louis Rams – Stanley Jean-Baptiste, CB, Nebraska: The Rams get to see twice a year what giant cornerbacks can do defensively when they play Seattle. At 6 foot 3, Jean-Baptiste is a monster. Most have Gilbert and Roby rated higher, but the position is changing. (editor’s note: I’m hoping for Anthony Barr, if only because the thought Robert Quinn, Chris Long and Barr simultaneously rushing the passer gives me gleeful heart palpitations)

14.   Chicago Bears – CJ Mosley, LB, Alabama: The Bears were nothing short of calamitous at stopping the run in 2013. Had they been merely pathetic, they probably make the playoffs. I’m not saying Mosley is Brian Urlacher, but fans and teammates alike will be able to get behind his style.

15.   Pittsburgh Steelers – Brandin Cooks, WR, Oregon StateFew quarterbacks buy time quite like Big Ben. Guys with blinding speed and good hands like Cooks would seem to be a perfect fit. This team has lost quite a bit at the receiver position the last couple of years, and replacing some of it with Cooks makes sense to me.

16.   Dallas Cowboys – Odell Beckham, WR, LSU:  I’m putting Beckham here because I’m assuming it’s Jerry Jones who has the final call, and while Beckham is a good player worthy of getting picked in this neighborhood, Dallas has different needs. Like the offensive line.

17.   Baltimore Ravens – Morgan Moses, OT, Virginia:  The Ravens are an astute organization, and one of the first things astute organizations do after giving their quarterback a Brinks truck of Benjamins is to surround him with some good blocking. This could also easily be Zack Martin, Cyrus Kouandijo, Joe Bitonio, or another talented tackle. I just think Morgan Moses is a really cool name.

18.   New York Jets – Justin Gilbert, CB, Oklahoma St.:  It’s hard to pass on a first round talent at cornerback if it falls to you. I’m wracking my brain and I can’t come up with a need pressing enough to pass up Gilbert. Wide receiver maybe, but they just signed Eric Decker. I’m stumped here, I’ll admit it.

19.   Miami Dolphins – Jordan Matthews, WR, VanderbiltI’ve got a bit of a man crush here. Mike Wallace stretches the field, Matthews would offer a nice complement. Other receivers are rated higher in other people’s mocks, but I think whoever ends up with Matthews gets a great value.

20.   Arizona Cardinals – Johnny Manziel, QB, Texas A&MNope, not kidding. Carson Palmer showed that this is an entirely different team with decent quarterback play, but he’s not a spring chicken anymore. What he is is smart, competitive, and classy. If you could pick a current veteran starter to tutor his eventual successor, wouldn’t Palmer be on your short list? There is, of course, the chance that Manziel doesn’t even fall close to this far…

21.   Green Bay Packers –  Anthony Barr, LB, UCLA: There are a lot of issues on the defensive side of the ball in Green Bay. In Barr, they get a disruptive pass rusher who at one point was being mentioned alongside Clowney and Mack as defensive players worthy of a top five pick. I wouldn’t be shocked with an offensive lineman here like Joel Bitonio, especially since Aaron Rodgers is at his most effective when he has a pulse.

22.   Philadelphia Eagles – Marquise Lee, WR, USC: Wide receiver is the trendy idea here for Philly in the wake of DeSean Jackson’s departure. Probably because it makes the most sense. They have defensive needs too, and the very good Aaron Donald is somehow still on the board, but I see Chip Kelly wanting more on offense.

23.   Kansas City Chiefs – Kyle Fuller, CB, Virginia Tech: Their defense, vaunted at the early part of 2013, was exposed late in the year. When you’re playing Peyton Manning twice a year, you need to be solid on the back end. You can also make cases for Brad Roby and Jason Verrett.

24.   Cincinnati Bengals – Aaron Donald, DT, Pittsburgh: If by some chance Donald actually falls this far, you’d have to think the Bengals would set a land speed record on the way to the podium. Difference makers on defense aren’t often found this late.

25.   San Diego Chargers – Jace Amaro, TE, Texas Tech: A little high for Amaro? Probably a little, but Antonio Gates hasn’t put a full healthy season together in a while, and another receiving option to go with the excellent Keenan Allen is probably high on Phil Rivers’ wish list too.

26.   Cleveland Browns – Calvin Pryor, S, Louisville: This may end up being another one of those situations where even though a player doesn’t fill a giant need, he’s too good to not pick. Having already added Mack, this suddenly looks like a really good defense.

27.   New Orleans Saints – Kyle Van Noy, LB, BYU: Van Noy doesn’t fill a glaring need, but he’s the type of player who can make any defense better. I am not buying that the departure of Lance Moore means that the Saints MUST add a receiver here… but it wouldn’t shock me to hear Davante Adams’ or Cody Latimer’s name called either.

28.   Carolina Panthers – Joel Bitonio, OL, Nevada: Look, I’m perfectly willing to admit that a significant chunk of my “research” on players involves YouTube and Google. That said, when the “negatives” that are pointed out about a player include that you’d like to see him a little taller or have arms that were a little longer, it’s often a case of, “well, we gotta find SOMETHING wrong with the guy, let’s criticize something like limb proportion…” But if you want something more concrete, Cam Newton is this organization’s future, and only makes sense to protect him with good linemen. Like Bitonio.

29.   New England Patriots – Louis Nix, DT, Notre Dame: This boils down to needing a Vince Wilfork clone. Nix is enormous, and well-schooled at the home of the Fighting Irish. I was close to adding another weapon for Tom Brady like the aforementioned Adams, Latimer, or maybe even Kelvin Benjamin, but I couldn’t pull the trigger.

30.   San Francisco 49rs – Ryan Shazier, LB, Ohio State: Is it cheating that I’m putting this here in the wake of the Aldon Smith fiasco? I don’t know which rumor is correct: the team not exercising the option or the team not giving up on him. But I’ll tell you one thing, 9 million is a lot of dollars to risk on someone facing multiple criminal charges, not to mention a very recent bout with alcohol abuse. So…enter Shazier, who is very very good.

31.   Denver Broncos – Bradley Roby, CB, Ohio State: I concede, this is kind of a cop out pick for me. The best reason I can come up with is that the Broncos figure to have multiple touchdown leads by halftime of many of their games, so defending the pass has to be a priority, right? Right??? Hey, like I said, cop out. But Roby is a lightning bolt.

32.   Seattle Seahawks – Cyrus Kouandijo, OT, Alabama: The ‘Hawks could use some upgrading along the offensive line…eventually. Hear me out. Or…see me out? Anyway, there’s concerns out there that he’s not ready, or maybe not healed completely from some college injuries. Whatever. He doesn’t even have to play much in year one. He can learn, or recover, or whatever, but I don’t see Seattle letting a guy who was once considered a possible top 15 pick fall past them at 32.

 

Wow. There it is. And I’m sitting here looking at 8 more players who could easily go in the first round. Wait, there’s 3 more. Oh well. Enjoy!  

How I found myself at a Chinese National Baseball Team game.

Since I have moved to Arizona, I have been able to experience baseball in a whole new way. I have talked to team scouts, scouts with major media outlets, and countless coaches and players. I got to know the incredible hidden gem that is a minor league spring game on a back field and found the best spots to stand to make sure I get accurate velocity readings from the team’s radar guns.

Then Spring Training comes to an end and 125+ players for every team head off to the level they are assigned to, but that doesn’t mean the complexes go silent (they certainly get a lot quitter, but silent they are not). Instead, Extended Spring begins, and players get to spend another 2 1/2 months living in a hotel playing baseball every day in front of crowds that get dwarfed by little league fields around the corner.

Around baseball fields, you get used to hearing foreign languages, usually Spanish, but being so close to the Rangers, I often ran into groups of fans carrying signs and cardboard cutouts speaking Japanese as they get a glimpse of Yu Darvish getting in some cardio on his non-throw day. The Japanese fans are no longer here in Arizona, so I was surprised when I ran into a group of women on the way to the field speaking an Asian language the other day. It caught me by surprise because it wasn’t the Japanese I got somewhat accustomed to hearing, it was certainly something different.

As I look up toward the fields, one Rangers team is taking on the Seattle Mariners while the other Rangers squad is facing a team in all red uniforms and yellow writing across the chest. My mind immediately races through the teams who have spring complexes in Arizona, and then across the rest of baseball, and no team has this specific color combination. I go to grab the days rosters and lineups from the bins set out so media and scouts know who is who given players are not wearing names on the back of their jersey’s. One lineup shows the Rangers and Mariners logos, while the other has the Rangers logo and a yellow “C” with a red outline in Old English font.

Still thoroughly confused, I decide not to set up behind the radar guns and watch the field that features several players I am interested in getting a look at, but instead head over to the field where the group of women I passed earlier have settled in, along with three Rangers players and one other guy. I set up right behind the plate and look out at the pitcher wearing the all red jersey I am unfamiliar with and read the name printed on the front of the jersey, suddenly I realize it is the Chinese National Baseball Team.

I would love to be able to tell you more about the players, but I still can’t tell you who any of them are other than the pitcher had a big, healthy body that I would say projects well, if I had any clue his age. See, instead of the entire squad being made up of players that tend to be 21-years old or younger that I have become used to seeing in Extended Spring games, the Chinese team had a wide range of ages among their players. The catcher took off his mask to holler something out to his teammates, and looked to be at least in his mid-to-late 30s, while the first baseman couldn’t have been more than 22 or 23, nor was he taller than 5’11”.

I couldn’t tell you who played for the Rangers, I really didn’t pay attention, instead I just watched in curious awe. A tall white man, clearly American, jogs out to the mound to talk to the pitcher, but then someone else comes out quickly after him. Usually when another person follows the manager to the mound there is a pitching change, but instead, it was a translator. I then looked into the dugout to see there were at least three English speaking coaches and the Chinese translator runs back into the dugout to bounce back and forth between coaches to help relay the messages the coaches are trying to get across.

I couldn’t tell you what the score was, who won, or even if the game was competitive, which is the case for pretty much all the spring and extended spring games I have been to as I have focused more on players than the game as a whole, but this day was different.  I not only didn’t care about the score, but I didn’t find myself caring who looked good and who didn’t, I simply sat back and enjoyed the oddity that was the Chinese National Baseball Team facing off against a Rangers minor league club in front of a crowd that totaled about a dozen.

Are the Dodgers Being Transparent About Clayton Kershaw’s Injury?

Well, if you’re a Dodgers fan, you hope so. But I have my doubts.

Kershaw has been on the disabled list since the end of March, retroactive to the day after his start in Australia, with an injury to the teres major muscle in his upper back. The high end of the projected 2-3 weeks he was supposed to spend on the DL would have him ready to return the week of April 20th. Sorry, folks, I just don’t think that is going to happen. Here’s a few reasons why:

  • Jurickson Profar, the outstanding middle infield prospect for the Texas Rangers, is out an estimated 10-12 weeks with an injury to his teres major muscle. His injury is diagnosed as a tear, and therefore more serious than Kershaw’s, but he’s also not a pitcher who is expected to throw 100+ pitches every fifth day, many of them in the neighborhood of 95 miles per hour.
  • There’s a proximity issue when it comes to the shoulder and the teres. Now, I’m not a doctor (more on that in a moment), but if there’s a chance that there could be a rotator cuff injury if they don’t take proper care of this back thing, you can bet they are erring way on the side of caution. A rotator cuff tear means a year on the sidelines. If they have to wait two months to ensure that not happening, you can bet they’re gonna.
  • Me. That’s right. No, not because I’m telling them anything, but because ten years ago, I had a strain of my teres major on the right side. I tweaked it at the gym, it still hurt a few days later, so I got it checked out. Know what the doctor prescribed? Three weeks of rest. Then ease back into my gym routine. Ease back. Don’t jump back. Ease back. Sure, I am not and never have been an elite athlete, but ten years ago I was in fact 25, in pretty good shape, and a quick healer. 

Now, why am I suspicious you ask? You probably didn’t, but I’m imagining you did so just go with it. Well, dig back in the recesses of your memory and think about how injuries were reported 10-15 years ago. Guys didn’t have plantar fasciitis, or a lisfranc injury. They had a sore or sprained foot. Guys didn’t have teres major muscle strains. They had a sore back. This isn’t in any way to minimize injuries, but why use the technical or medical terminology when 99% of the population doesn’t know what the hell it is anyway?

Well, that’s simple. A decade ago, you didn’t have Twitter, or Facebook, or Instagram, or any other variety of social media outlets that let people instantly share whatever the hell is on their mind. Idiots with blogs like yours truly over here were in small supply. The Internet was alive, well, and thriving, but not to the degree that it is now. People actually have jobs these days where social media is part of the description. Imagine that. 

Why does this matter, you ask? Please, just take a minute and ask. Out loud, please, just so I feel a little less crazy. Thank you. Well, here are a couple of scenarios for you. Humor me.

  • The Dodgers announce Clayton Kershaw has injured a muscle in his back, close to his shoulder, and will be on the shelf for a couple of months. Ned Colletti and Don Mattingly give their obligatory press conferences and say things like, “Clearly, this is a significant loss for us, but we are hopefull Clayton will be 100% as we chase the division title this Summer.” Meanwhile, social media goes crazy. Every news outlet in the LA area, and most on a national level that cover sports, analyze the hell out what it means to the National League West Division chase. Every single question for weeks that Dodger players and coaches get is about Kershaw. It becomes a huge distraction. They struggle with it, and meanwhile, a capable San Francisco Giants team opens up a big lead in the division. Now, there’s a rush to get Kershaw back, and he may not be 100%.
  • The Dodgers announce Clayton Kershaw has a minor injury to a little known muscle in his upper back, but fret not people, he’ll be back in a few weeks. They know this is unlikely, but they have faith that a capable crew of starting pitchers led by Zack Greinke, Hyun Jin Ryu and Danny Haren can hold the fort down in his absence. Josh Beckett and Chad Billingsley are nearing readiness, and the offense scores plenty of runs for the Blue Crew to win plenty of games. Three weeks go by, the team is playing well, and the question comes up. Where’s CK on his path back? Well, the answer can now be, “He’s progressing nicely. We feel he’ll be ready soon but now is not the time to rush him. We’re gonna take our time with him, make sure he’s 100%. The team is playing great right now so we’re just going to take it one day at a time.”

And you know what? If the second scenario plays out, it will be accepted. They can even mix in a bogus sinus infection or bruised pinky toe for an extra week. 

Instead, they’ve opted for descriptions like “sub-maximal throwing program” to describe what he’s doing. Why not just say, “He’s going to play catch with the coaches to keep his arm loose.” Today is April, 6th and here’s how I see this going.

  • For the next two weeks or so, he continues his “sub-maximal” program and plays toss.
  • Around April 21st or so, he’s going to have a bullpen session where he throws maybe 20 pitches, all fastballs, under the close eye of coaches and team physicians. For the next two to three days, they’ll monitor how his body responds.
  • He’ll throw another bullpen session four or five days later, maybe even a simulated game, and throw about 40 pitches, working in a few off-speed pitches. 
  • Assuming he comes out of that with no setbacks, he’ll be sent out on a minor league rehab assignment. He won’t have seen any game action for a month now, and whatever arm strength he was able to build during an abbreviated spring training thanks to the Australia trip (nothing negative meant there at all. For real.) has been compromised. 
  • Seeing as he’s essentially starting spring training over, he’ll probably need at least three rehab starts. One where he goes three innings, one where he goes five, and another where they try to get him 100 pitches. 

Assuming I’m close to right, we are now in the middle of May. If any part of the way I see this going is delayed by some soreness, rain, you name it, we could be pushing the end of May. If I am right, we can probably expect to see Clayton Kershaw rejoin the Dodgers’ starting rotation around the beginning of June. 

Could I be wrong? Of course I could, and I sincerely hope that I am. I hope that I hear tomorrow or the next day that he’s feeling 100% and should be ready to come off the DL when the three weeks originally prognosticated are up. But I’m also realistic.

Do I think what I’m essentially accusing the Dodgers of doing is wrong? Not really. I get it. They are doing what I think they feel they need to do in order for the team to traverse the period of time without the planet’s best pitcher as best it can. 

Do you agree with me? Disagree? There’s a button below that enables you to comment. Please do so!

 

2014 MLB Predictions

Shaun’s picks for the 2014 MLB Season

 

AL East: Boston Red Sox

AL Central: Kansas City Royals

AL West: Oakland A’s

AL Wild Card #1: Detroit Tigers

AL Wild Card #2: Tampa Bay Rays

AL Pennant Winner: Tampa Bay Rays

AL MVP: Mike Trout

AL Cy Young: James Shields

AL Rookie of the Year: Xander Bogaerts

NL East: Washington Nationals

NL Central: St. Louis Cardinals

NL West: Los Angeles Dodgers

NL Wild Card #1: Cincinnati Reds

NL Wild Card #2: Pittsburgh Pirates

NL Pennant Winner: Washington Nationals

NL MVP: Hanley Ramirez

NL Cy Young: Jose Fernandez

NL Rookie of the Year: Chris Owings

World Series Champion: Tampa Bay Rays

 

Torsten’s picks for the 2014 MLB Season

 

AL East:  Tampa Bay Rays

AL Central: Detroit Tigers

AL West: Texas Rangers

AL Wild Card #1: Boston Red Sox

AL Wild Card #2: Oakland A’s

AL Pennant Winner: Tampa Bay Rays

AL MVP: Mike Trout

AL Cy Young: Chris Sale

AL Rookie of the Year: George Springer

NL East: Washington Nationals (it was Atlanta before 3/5ths of their starting rotation suffered arm injuries)

NL Central: St. Louis Cardinals

NL West: Los Angeles Dodgers

NL Wild Card #1: Cincinnati Reds

NL Wild Card #2: San Francisco Giants

NL Pennant Winner: Los Angeles Dodgers

NL MVP: Hanley Ramirez

NL Cy Young: Madison Bumgarner

NL Rookie of the Year: Arquimedes Caminero

World Series Champion: Los Angeles Dodgers

 

Observations from Opening Weekend

Now that opening weekend is in the books, here are a few thoughts from the Dodgers D’Backs two game series down under.

The Australians knocked it out of the park as hosts. The Sydney Cricket Grounds is an incredible venue, filled with majesty and splendor. And that’s me seeing it through the television. I can only imagine the gravity I would feel being there. The fans were top notch, cheering pretty much everything that both teams did. 

Vin Scully, at 85-years-old, still has it. Yeah, he stumbles a bit more often these days, but what of it? Two moments stand out. The first was when he told the story behind a statue that was erected in center field to honor a notorious heckler from a century ago who tormented the cricket players. Hearing Vinny laugh when recounting some of the heckler’s famous taunts, including “I wish I was a pigeon and you were a statue,” was hilarious. The second was when he was giving a play by play of using the smart phone his daughter had set up for him to compare the times of day in Sydney and Los Angeles, and it not quite going according to plan. I can’t imagine a Dodgers season without him. 

The loss of Patrick Corbin is crippling to the D’Backs. At the risk of stating the obvious, most teams would be suffering pretty significantly if their ace was hurt. But Corbin is the real deal, and Arizona just doesn’t have the resources in reserve that the Dodgers do. It shows, as deputy opening day starter Wade Miley was okay, but you need better than ok to beat Clayton Kershaw. If something, God forbid, would happen to Kershaw, there are at least a few capable arms in reserve that could step in.

Hyun Jin Ryu is very impressive. The Dodgers had their own deputy in Ryu, who was taking the place of Zack Greinke, he of the calf strain and general unwillingness to traverse continents. Ryu was not spectacular; several balls were hit pretty hard and he left a couple of pitches over the plate. But when the going got tough, he was at his best. Appallingly bad defense gave the D’Backs six outs in the fourth inning, but that’s when he stepped up to bail out his infielders with his best pitching of the game. Healthy, he’s a virtual lock to at least repeat his 14 wins from last year.  

Yasiel Puig is going to give me, and probably Don Mattingly, ulcers before the season is done. You love him for his talent. You love him for his hustle. You love him for his enthusiasm. His apparent willingness to start hitting the cut-off man gives you hope. His boneheaded baserunning decisions were apparently not cured by a Winter off, however. And if the perception that he is pretending to feel pain or injury after swinging and missing is true, that’s unacceptable.

I would not want to be on Kirk Gibson’s bad side. Long removed from a playing career where he was known for his intensity, it hasn’t faded. Watching Trevor Cahill walk one batter after the other, you could see him seething just below the surface. I wonder why the camera man kept panning over to Gibby after each base on balls. All it made me do was fear for Cahill’s safety. Anyone know if he was allowed back on the team plane? In any case, I admire it. Gibby is a great manager.

Mattingly is not. Donnie Baseball still has a chance to learn the craft, but he needs to understand that he is under a microscope, contract extension or not. He’s great at some things. The players like him, and you have to give him credit for being willing to engage an umpire when he feels like his team is getting the shaft. But the game planning and decision making have to get better. Lefty righty matchup or not, batting Justin Turner second and Andre Ethier seventh in game 1 is indefensible. Sitting Scott Van Slyke in favor of Mike Baxter after Van Slyke was responsible in one way or another for every run the Dodgers scored is head scratchingly bad. Hey, if you wanted to get some guys playing time for making the trip, say that! But if all wins, whether they’re games 1 and 2 or 101 and 102 count the same, there’s no reason bring along Chone Figgins when he and Dee Gordon are essentially the same player, but Gordon is just better at everything. Including now, center field. Mattingly is fortunate to be steering the ship of a very strong team whose performance can often mask his poor choices. He’s likable, so I hope he gets it one day, but that day ain’t here yet. 

Miguel Montero is not right. Last season a back injury cost him his effectiveness, both defensively and offensively. While his swing looks ok, his defense does not. Montero has long been known for being a good defender, and while he still can block the ball in the dirt, his throwing is bad. Really bad. He’s another guy the D’Backs can ill afford to lose. For their sake, I hope Miggy gets it back. 

Paul Goldschmidt is all that and a bag of chips. He’s Miguel Cabrera good. 

Adrian Gonzalez leads the Dodgers in stolen bases. Yup.

Well, that’s about it. Anyone else glad baseball is back? It was kind of a tease though, wasn’t it? Now we have to go through another week of fake games before the real ones start up again. I hope I remember to eat. 

Fantasy Baseball: 10 things I have noticed

As my fourth and final fantasy baseball draft (not counting five mocks) of the season approaches, I’ve noticed a few things. First and foremost, I pretty much rule at fantasy football. I have turned a profit every year for the last ten, a minimum of 80% of my teams make the playoffs, and if I had a dollar for every time someone asked me, “How the @#$% did you end up getting all of THOSE guys,” I’d…I should have thought of a way to end that sentence before writing this article. Let’s just sum it up by saying once again that I rule.

Of course I do. Fantasy football is easy. You’re trying assemble a team of yards and touchdowns. If you really wanna get all crazy, you throw in receptions for PPR leagues. Essentially your draft strategy can be oversimplified to, “Take the best available player for the first five rounds before making only slight modifications for positional need and then swing for the fences late.” If you end up with a team loaded with good players, you don’t have to stress over which flex option to play, the awesomeness of your every week starters should assure you a winning record and a playoff spot, where essentially anything can happen.

But this isn’t fantasy football. It’s fantasy baseball, where you have more positions to fill, more statistics to worry about, more players to know, more lineups to set, and more stress in general. Stress! About a fantasy sport!!! Imagine that. It’s no wonder why I, your average man of dashing good lucks (according to my wife) and average intelligence (a generous analysis, according to my “I didn’t marry you for your brain, honey” wife have performed poorly in fantasy baseball compared to fantasy football. So this year, I’ve decided to prove to myself that I can do it. It’s why I’m playing in four leagues, instead of my customary one or two, and why I took the time to partake in multiple mocks. It’s time to become more than a one trick fantasy pony, and show that I’m not just another pretty face in the room.

Here’s a brief overview of my leagues. The two I’ve been playing in consistently the last few years, performing at a consistently mediocre rate, are a 15 keeper and 5 keeper league. Nothing fancy, just assemble the best team you can and keep the best players for the next year. To mix it up a little bit, I jumped into a start from scratch league, and I also took over a 10 keeper team in a points league. This one will probably be the true barometer of whether I’m making any progress or not. I haven’t decided yet whether the team’s previous manager is a mad genius or an incompetent suckbag of fail (that’s a real thing, Wikipedia it… on second thought, don’t. I don’t have time to create a Wikipedia page for it). It’s a points league so starting pitching is hugely valuable. My predecessor managed to land Jose Fernandez, so that’s good. He also seemed to have a good eye for young talent as Wil Meyers and Manny Machado were also on the roster. And then there’s Matt Cain, and Victor Martinez…and if we grimace slightly Panda Sandoval (third base is appallingly barren, it appears)…and where the heck are my other four keepers going to come from? That’s where the good ends the awful begins. Well, in a league where pitching is massively valuable, people will pay massive prices, so I managed to flip Fernandez for Matt Moore, Yasiel Puig and George Springer. Also flipped a draft pick for Domonic Brown. Gritted my teeth and kept Nelson Cruz, for lack of anyone better. And immediately drafted Doug Fister (I think he finishes top 5 in the NL Cy Young voting this year) and Francisco Liriano with high picks to solidify my rotation. Now, to see if I’m genius or a fool.

Since I titled this article “Things I’ve Noticed,” I should probably get to that. First and foremost, I like reading fantasy advice columns as much or more than anyone. I don’t always take the advice but I almost always find the columns to be insightful and entertaining, whether I agree with them or not. Fantasy writers come in good and bad, and they don’t make them much better than Matthew Berry, but even his fantasy baseball advice is bet hedged – in that “well, if this guy is here, I’d take him, but this other guy, you can get similar stats from player c three rounds later.” That’s not a criticism, it’s just an observation, and I think I get it now.

1) As different as the stats and stuff are for fantasy baseball and fantasy football, so are the team managers. What position a guy is gonna go for, and therefore who may be available to you three or four picks down the road is way more difficult to predict. In football, if you’re picking in four spots, and the three guys ahead of you already have a qb, Matt Ryan will still be there when you select. Can’t say that for baseball.
2) Mock drafts are pretty useless after the first few rounds. The few that I did, people seemed to check out by round 5 and let auto pick handle the rest.
3) Everyone likes Ryan Braun, and nobody likes Melky Cabrera. Remember when Cabrera was doing his best Clue Heywood impersonation, minus the whole leading the league in nose hair thing, and then tested positive for PEDs? And remember how he is essentially now a pedestrian player? Well, Ryan Braun was a superstar, then it came to light that he was slamming massive amounts of PEDs (and trying to ruin honest people’s lives), but people are still drafting him like a superstar. Maybe he still is one, without all the artificial enhancement, but maybe he’s Cabrera. I won’t spend a second round pick on him, and that’s not even principle talking…ok, maybe a little.
4) People love Billy Hamilton but hate Dee Gordon. I’m ambivalent towards both, but stolen bases are a category so… you can make similar comparisons using Jonathan Villar and Rajai Davis. One guy is getting snapped up, the other is waiver wire fodder. I don’t understand it. Maybe I should, but I don’t.
5) People sure do use ground ball percentage as a heavily relied upon stat when measuring whether a pitcher’s stats from the previous season were artificially good or bad due to luck. There may be some merit to it, but there are pitchers whose game plans are to pitch toward weak fly ball contact. Some are good, (see Greinke, Zack) others terrible (see Bauer, Trevor). Just because Greinke gave up more fly balls than your average top notch pitcher doesn’t mean it wasn’t by design.
6) Holy hotcakes, Batman, people sure are in a hurry to snag Masahiro Tanaka and Jose Abreu. I get it in dynasty leagues, but really?
7) I buy into the theory that you can get saves late…but there’s a difference between a Kevin Gregg save and a Greg Holland save. There’s a difference between a Fernando Rodney save and a (dammit, why isn’t there a closer with the first name, Rodney!?) Jason Grilli save. There’s a difference between who is closing for the Cubs and who is closing for…a team that isn’t awful.
8) I hate that holds are a statistic in general, but the fact that they are a stat in fantasy baseball is truly infuriating. They take the art out of finding the aforementioned save late on. It means that you can’t smugly sit there knowing that by week 7 of the regular season, you’re going to look like a genius for snagging Cody Allen off the waiver wire because John Axford is a ticking time bomb as Cleveland’s closer. Someone will have grabbed him in the 18th round or so because holds are a @#$%ing category now. Why am I playing fantasy baseball again?
9) Conversely, I like how many leagues now deduct points from hitters who strike out. Makes you really think about where you should take Pedro Alvarez. Funnily enough, on a related note, I took Mark Reynolds with the last pick in one of my drafts. It’s 16 teams so it’s deep, and pickings were slim. The clock was at 7 seconds, the autopick was someone who was hurt, I think. In any event, I panicked and took Reynolds. That was over a week ago and I haven’t dropped him yet, mainly because I haven’t gotten to it yet. I was looking at my roster yesterday and noticed he had that little new news item asterisk by his name on my roster, and I absent-mindedly clicked on it to see what it was. Turned out he doubled and knocked in a few runs, but the point is, I actually looked at a fantasy news item for Mark Reynolds, something no successful fantasy player of the last decade has ever done. This isn’t looking good for me.
10) You shouldn’t select your keepers in a keeper league too far ahead of the deadline. You don’t want to wait for the last second either, because what if something happens that keeps you away from being able to do it? But there is no reason to pick your keepers a month ahead of time. I did that in the league Shaun and I are drafting in this Sunday, my last of the season, and I’m livid with myself for who I kept. I won’t get into who I should have kept over whom I did, I’ll give you a hint. The names Justin Verlander, Matt Kemp, and Craig Kimbrel are part of the conversation.

I noticed like three other things when I was writing this column, but I’m too lazy to change the title so we’re stopping here. Look for podcasts coming soon from your favorite sports blog that most people have never heard of.

LA Sports Media Needs to Shut Up About Clippers’ Thrashing of Lakers

It must be a slow time in Los Angeles sports news, because the Clipper’s 48 point drubbing of the Lakers is all anyone with a microphone or a keyboard seems to be talking about. And now, I’m part of the problem. See what you people in the media do to me!?

The sheer stupidity of it all hit me on my drive home from the day job today as I was listening to the Petros and Money show on AM 570 out here. I like those guys, and for the most part they’re fun to listen to, though Petros needs to lower the volume just a scoche. Is that how you spell scoche?

The questions being asked, and not just by Petros and Money, but by most of the basketball media, are simply preposterous. Let’s tackle them one by one, so each of the moronic notions can have it’s own little section of ignominy here on The Stain.

Is Los Angeles now a Clippers town?

Really? Look, I know I’m in the minority here, but if the teams I support (Dodgers, Kings, Galaxy, Lakers) don’t bring home the hardware, I hope the other local teams do. I have no problem pulling for the Angels, Ducks, Chivas or Clippers if my primary teams are out of it. But that notwithstanding, Los Angeles is a city about far more than who the flavor of the month is in the sports world. The Clippers are clearly the superior team here these days, but they have won the same amount of NBA titles as you and I have. Until they win something, how can they even be compared to a Lakers franchise with a truckload of titles, led by superstars like Jerry, Wilt, Kareem, Magic, Worthy, Kobe, Shaq and company. Look, go Clips. Kick ass. Take down the Western Conference, and lay the smack on Indiana or Miami, whomever it is that will represent the East. But until that happens about a dozen times, they are second fiddle. Is it fair? Maybe not, but nobody ever said the World was a fair place.

Is this the most humiliating defeat in Lakers history?

Again, preposterous. The term humiliating implies that somebody actually gives a crap on the Lakers. The only guy who can truly claim to bleed the purple and gold is Kobe Bryant, who has spent his entire career here. But he’s hurt. The classy Pau Gasol cares, to a degree, but he wouldn’t have turned down a trade to a contender. Not in a heartbeat. In any event, he’s still good but he’s a few years removed from being a star. The rest of the guys on the team are guys trying to rack up numbers they can point to in job interviews next season. If Xavier Henry’s 15 points including 3-3 on three pointers helps his season ending averages, is anyone going to remember that it came in a blowout loss? These aren’t the iconic Lakers of old. They’re mercenaries wearing the purple and gold jersey this year.

Are the Lakers as an organization at a crossroads?

In short, no. This is how sports dynasties work. You get a collection of stars. Win for several years. Those stars get old, and their level of play starts to decline. But you can’t get rid of them because they are under contract. And you had to sign them to a lucrative contract that extended into their older years, because if you didn’t offer that, some other team would have and you don’t get them for their good years then, and as a result, don’t win. It’s pretty straight forward. The other thing is, when you win, you don’t get high draft picks, so your odds of landing a Paul George type are super slim. The Lakers are just at a point now where their stars are old, and they need to rebuild. So they’ll get a good draft pick, hopefully use it well, suck again next season, hit the draft again, and sign a big free agent or two, and voila. Contender. It’s not neuro science.

Do the Clippers have extra motivation against the Lakers?

If they do, there’s something wrong with them. It’s a basketball game. Wins against the crosstown rival don’t count any heavier in the standings than a win against Milwaukee. It may be a bragging rights badge for local fans when your team beats up on your buddy’s team, but these guys are professionals and already on to the next game. Extra motivation is a horrid sports cliche. Nothing more. If any game ever would be cause for extra motivation, it would be a finals game or a game where you were facing elimination from the playoffs. Your proverbial life on the line could add extra weight. Anything else, doubtful.

Will free agents even want to come to the Lakers now?

Well, if you want to live in a town with a fast-paced nightlife, huge media market, and a disproportionately high number of beautiful people, then you will. If you prefer a quieter, more anonymous course for your stardom, then probably not. The previous season’s record can’t be a motivating factor.  But let’s say for a moment that the Lakers are indeed afraid their brand, and therefore their recruiting power has faltered. The Buss family is not stupid. Fire D’Antoni. Hire Phil Jackson. Problem over. For the record, I’m not advocating this. I enjoy D’Antoni’s fast paced philosophy (as much as a guy like me can use the word “enjoy” in the same sentence as the word “basketball” anyway…) way more than Phil Jackson’s methodical triangle. And I’ve always thought he was overrated anyway, and that much of his success was a product of his teams having the preponderance of good players. But you can’t argue the fact that he is revered in NBA circles.

Are the Lakers tanking?

If they were, would it matter? What do you think Philly is doing, or Milwaukee, or Utah? But if I have to weigh in on this ridiculous notion, no. Why would they go into Portland and gut out a victory against a very good Blazers team that in no way helps them in the standings? If they’re tanking, they’re doing it wrong. Something like 12 of the fifteen guys on the roster are not guaranteed jobs next season. I promise you, those guys WANT jobs next season. So they need to put up numbers, and that is going to occasionally end up in your team scoring more points than the other guys. And the fact that the winning basket was scored on a highlight reel alley oop won’t hurt Kent Bazemore and Wesley Johnson’s job prospects either.

Are the Clippers championship contenders?

Yeah, if you’re dreaming or on narcotics. They’re a good team. They have good young players. Chris Paul is a leader. But they can’t defend the interior. For all of Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan’s dunking on offense, there’s not enough paint protection. It’s one thing to lay a beating on a doormat, it’s entirely another to do it against other playoff teams. They may get out of round one, but any farther than that would be shocking. I’d love to eat crow with this one. The more hardware my hometown gets, the happier I am. But it ain’t happening this year with this team.

Are you ready for baseball to start yet, Torsten?

Yes. Yes I am. Perhaps something other than the monstrous man that LeBron James is jumping over a small, inferior player and dunking the ball might end up on a highlight show. For the life of me, I can’t understand how a man the size of James, or the average NBA player for that matter, stuffing a ball through the hoop is impressive. It’s something that contains ZERO DEGREE OF DIFFICULTY! A third baseman barehanding a bunt by a speedy hitter and firing to first base on the dead run to get him by a fraction of a second, that takes skill.

Ok, stepping off of the soap box now. Hopefully we covered everything on this Lakers Clippers nonsense so we can stop hearing about it.

Shaun’s Top 100 Baseball Prospects

While the vast majority of my prospect writing can be found at Grading on the Curve, I decided I should publish my own personal top 100, and figured The Stain is a good spot to do that.  So, here it is, my top 100 prospects in all of baseball.

1) Byron Buxton – OF – Minnesota Twins

2) Xander Bogaerts – SS – Boston Red Sox

3) Miguel Sano – 3B – Minnesota Twins

4) Taijuan Walker – RHP – Seattle Mariners

5) Oscar Tavares – OF – St. Louis Cardinals

6) Javier Baez – SS – Chicago Cubs

7) Francisco Lindor – SS – Cleveland Indians

8) Archie Bradley – RHP – Arizona Diamondbacks

9) Kris Bryant – 3B – Chicago Cubs

10) Austin Hedges – C – San Diego Padres

 

11) Gregory Polanco – OF – Pittsburgh Pirates

12) Addison Russell – SS – Oakland A’s

13) Jonathan Gray – RHP – Colorado Rockies

14) Carlos Correa – SS – Houston Astros

15) Mark Appel – RHP – Houston Astros

16) Robert Stephenson – RHP – Cincinnati Reds

17) Albert Almora – OF – Chicago Cubs

18) Noah Syndergaard – RHP – New York Mets

19) Lucas Giolito – RHP – Washington Nationals

20) Jameson Taillon – RHP – Pittsburgh Pirates

21) Dylan Bundy – RHP – Baltimore Orioles
22) Yordano Ventura – RHP – Kansas City Royals
23) Eddie Butler – RHP – Colorado Rockies
24) George Springer – OF – Houston Astros
25) Raul Aldaberto Mondesi – SS – Kansas City Royals
26) Joc Pederson – OF – Los Angeles Dodgers
27) Kevin Gausman – RHP – Baltimore Orioles
28) Nick Castellanos – 3B – Detroit Tigers
29) Alex Meyer – RHP – Minnesota Twins
30) Julio Urias – LHP – Los Angeles Dodgers

31) Kyle Zimmer – RHP – Kansas City Royals
32) Max Fried – LHP – San Diego Padres
33) Aaron Sanchez – RHP – Toronto Blue Jays
34) Kyle Crick – RHP – San Francisco Giants
35) Jorge Soler – OF – Chicago Cubs
36) Henry Owens – LHP – Boston Red Sox
37) Jackie Bradley Jr. – Boston Red Sox
38) Andrew Heaney – LHP – Miami Marlins
39) Billy Hamilton – OF – Cincinnati Reds
40) Clint Frazier – OF – Cleveland Indians

41) Jorge Alfaro – C – Texas Rangers
42) Tyler Glasnow – RHP – Pittsburgh Pirates
43) Marcus Stroman – RHP – Toronto Blue Jays
44) Travis D’Arnaud – C – New York Mets
45) Corey Seager – SS – Los Angeles Dodgers
46) Kolten Wong – 2B – St. Louis Cardinals
47) Rougned Odor – 2B – Texas Rangers
48) Colin Moran – 3B – Miami Marlins
49) Austin Meadows – OF – Pittsburgh Pirates
50) Blake Swihart – C – Boston Red Sox

51) Lucas Sims – RHP – Atlanta Braves
52) Kohl Stewart – RHP – Minnesota Twins
53) Garin Cecchini – 3B – Boston Red Sox
54) CJ Edwards – RHP – Chicago Cubs
55) Matt Wisler – RHP – San Diego Padres
56) Mike Foltynewicz – RHP – Houston Astros
57) Erik Johnson – RHP – Chicago White Sox
58) Jonathan Singleton – 1B – Houston Astros
59) Maikel Franco – 3B – Philadelphia Phillies
60) Rosell Herrera – SS – Colorado Rockies

61) Matt Barnes – RHP – Boston Red Sox
62) Chris Owings – SS – Arizona Diamondbacks
63) Allan Webster – RHP – Boston Red Sox
64) David Dahl – OF – Colorado Rockies
65) Sean Manea – LHP – Kansas City Royals
66) Trey Ball – LHP – Boston Red Sox
67) Zach Lee – RHP – Los Angeles Dodgers
68) Eddie Rosario – 2B – Minnesota Twins
69) Hunter Harvey – RHP – Baltimore Orioles
70) Braden Shipley – RHP – Arizona Diamondbacks

71) JP Crawford – SS – Philadelphia Phillies
72) Arismendy Alcantara – 2B – Chicago Cubs
73) Allen Hanson – SS – Pittsburgh Pirates
74) AJ Cole – RHP – Washington Nationals
75) Reese McGuire – C – Pittsburgh Pirates
76) Christian Bethancourt – C – Atlanta Braves
77) Mookie Betts – 2B – Boston Red Sox
78) Jorge Bonifacio – OF – Kansas City Royals
79) Jake Odorizzi – RHP – Tampa Bay Rays
80) Jonathan Schoop – 2B – Baltimore Orioles

81) Gary Sanchez – C – New York Yankees
82) Stephen Piscotty – OF – St. Louis Cardinals
83) James Paxton – LHP – Seattle Mariners
84) Joey Gallo – 3B – Texas Rangers
85) Miguel Almonte – RHP – Kansas City Royals
86) Brian Goodwin – OF – Washington Nationals
87) Hunter Dozier – 3B – Kansas City Royals
88) Luis Sardinas – SS – Texas Rangers
89) Ross Stripling – RHP – Los Angeles Dodgers
90) Matt Davidson – 3B – Chicago White Sox

91) Manuel Margot – OF – Boston Red Sox
92) Josmil Pinto – C – Minnesota Twins
93) Trevor Bauer – RHP – Cleveland Indians
94) Casey Kelly – RHP – San Diego Padres
95) Phillip Ervin – OF – Cincinnati Reds
96) Hak-Ju Lee – SS – Tampa Bay Rays
97) Jesse Biddle – LHP – Philadelphia Phillies
98) Chi Chi Rodriguez – RHP – Texas Rangers
99) C.J. Cron – 1B – Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
100) Raimel Tapia – OF – San Diego Padres

Baseball Over/Unders

Team

Wins

Torsten

Shaun

Arizona Diamondbacks

80.5

Over

Over

Atlanta Braves

87.5

Over

Over

Baltimore Orioles

80.5

Under

Over

Boston Red Sox

87.5

Over

Over

Chicago Cubs

69.5

Under

Under

Chicago White Sox

75.5

Under

Over

Cincinnati Reds

84.5

Over

Over

Cleveland Indians

80.5

Over

Over

Colorado Rockies

76.5

Under

Under

Detroit Tigers

89.5

Over

Under

Houston Astros

62.5

Over

Over

Kansas City Royals

81.5

Over

Over

Los Angeles Angels

86.5

Over

Under

Los Angeles Dodgers

92.5

Over

Over

Miami Marlins

69.5

Under

Under

Milwaukee Brewers

79.5

Under

Over

Minnesota Twins

70.5

Over

Under

New York Mets

73.5

Under

Under

New York Yankees

86.5

Over

Under

Oakland Athletics

88.5

Under

Over

Philadelphia Phillies

76.5

Under

Under

Pittsburgh Pirates

83.5

Over

Over

San Diego Padres

78.5

Under

Over

San Francisco Giants

86.5

Under

Under

Seattle Mariners

81.5

Under

Over

St. Louis Cardinals

90.5

Over

Over

Tampa Bay Rays

88.5

Over

Over

Texas Rangers

86.5

Over

Over

Toronto Blue Jays

79.5

Under

Under

Washington Nationals

88.5

Over

Over

 

Locks: Baseball is going to be a tough one to call this year. Lots of teams are on the verge of making a jump. A few are on the precipice of a significant drop. But most of these lines look pretty spot on, as us being in agreement on 20 of the 30 teams would indicate. That said, if you’re the betting sort, here’s our lock for the over as well as the under.

 Torsten:

Over: Atlanta Braves. Really? 87.5 wins? This team won 96 games last year with practically zero production from Dan Uggla and BJ Upton, and no Brandon Beachy or Johnny Venters for practically the entire year. They have pitching, one of the best young players in baseball in Freddie Freeman, and if any of the aforementioned guys has a better 2014 than 2013 (not a stretch), who is to say this team can’t win 95+ games again? For Pete’s sake, they get to play the Mets, Marlins, and Phillies 19 times each.

 

Under: San Diego Padres: There’s a bit of talent on this squad, but they’re the fourth best team in a five team division. No way they flirt with .500. Even if Chase Headley manages to stay healthy, and they get a bounce back year from Josh Johnson, there just isn’t enough of anything on this roster. The bullpen especially has question marks the size of Mount Rushmore. They’ll be lucky to get to 70 wins, much less the 78.5 the line is set at. I could have made a similar argument here for the Rockies, but with two superstars in the lineup (Tulo & Cargo) and a better-than-you-think bullpen (Rex Brothers is a stud), you never know.

Shaun:

Over: Kansas City Royals: I really believe the Royals have a shot at the playoffs this year. I like the top of the rotation with Jaime Shields, they have a stud pitcher that should earn himself a spot in the rotation after getting a taste of the big leagues last season in Yordano Ventura, and Greg Holland is an excellent closer. They also play fantastic defense, and have finally filled the black hole that has been second base in Kansas City with the addition of Omar Infante. I see the Royals flirting with 90 wins, not just teetering around .500.

Under: Philadelphia Phillies: The Phillies are old, signing older players, and they guys who used to be young and talented are just aging and declining. They do have a couple young guys that are impressive, but that likely won’t be enough. It is hard to say it is a lock for a team to win less than 77 games, especially a team with such a proud history as the Phillies, but I just don’t see it. Their starters aren’t that good anymore, and with all the money locked up in the aging veterans, they lack depth. I honestly see them as one of the five worst teams in baseball.