Author: Shaun P Kernahan

Best, Worst, and Under-the-Radar Signings in Baseball

Few things are more entertaining for us at The Stain than the free agency period for Major League Baseball. Weird things happen (see Cano, Robinson; Seattle), predictable things happen (see Tanaka, Masahiro; Yankees), and head-scratching things happen (see Arroyo, Bronson; Unemployed as of 1/31). Teams make good decisions, bad decisions, shrewd maneuvers, or in some cases nothing at all. Here’s look at a few noteworthy transactions so far this off-season.

Torsten’s take:

Great Signing: Angels, Raul Ibanez, DH, 1 yr. 2.75 million. Sure, he’s older than dirt and limited to DH duty at this stage of his career, and doesn’t really handle lefties all that well. But, for less than the league average salary, the Halos are going to get around 25 home runs in 350-400 plate appearances. There is no other player that returns that kind of value. 

Awful Signing: Red Sox, A.J. Pierzynski, C, 1 yr. 8.25 million. Two disclaimers here. No, I’m not taking a dig at Shaun. And second, I don’t think Pierzynski is a bad player. But, at this stage of his career, he’s weak defensively, and they’re overpaying for offensive production that shouldn’t have been a priority from that position. I’m not going to argue to vehemently with Ben Cherington. The GM of the World Series champions should probably not be the target of too much criticism, but I would have re-signed Salty, or gone after Geovany Soto or Kelly Shoppach before I overpaid for AJ. Silver lining, at least it’s only a one year deal. Honorable mention is the ridiculous contract the Giants gave Tim Lincecum, though the loyalty they’re displaying to one of their iconic players is admirable. 

Under the Radar: Yankees, Kelly Johnson, IF/OF, 1 yr. 3 million. Yeah, I died a little inside giving the Yankees credit. But lost in the bustle of the high profile Jacoby Ellsbury, Carlos Beltran, and Brian McCann signings is the fact that they might have taken a massive step to solving one of their two glaring infield issues; A-Rod’s suspension takes away their third baseman, and Seattle took away their second baseman. Johnson could turn out to be terrible and released by June… but he’s a versatile defender (even competent in the outfield if needed), can slug a little bit, and could turn out to be a titanic bargain for a team that spent a ton of cash to return to AL East relevance. Honorable mention is J.P. Howell. Sure, this may be a bit of a homer moment, but as a Dodger fan I got to see exactly how excellent he really is. And the simple fact they got him for less than the average closer makes means that he is a huge bargain.

Shaun’s take:

Quick reaction to Torsten, and no surprise it is about Pierzynski.  True, the dollar figure is high, but it actually makes sense.  The Red Sox are still about a good amount of money below the luxury tax threshold, and with the probability of either Ryan Dempster or Jake Peavy being traded before the season starts, the money is of little concern.  Salty was not resigned because the Red Sox have two high floor catchers in the high minors in Christian Vazquez and Blake Swihart.  Both are plus defensive backstops, and I just recently rated Swihart as my fourth best Red Sox prospect. 

Great Signing: Rangers, Shin-Soo Choo, OF, 7 years, $130 million.  If this was the best move of the offseason, it would be an easy vote for the Nationals trading for Doug Fister, and creating what is possibly the best rotation in baseball, but we are talking signings, so I will go with Choo.  Choo is a guy I love to watch play the game of baseball, and his story is incredible as well.  Choo led his native South Korea to an Asian Games gold medal in baseball, deeming him exempt from his home countries law requiring him to serve two years in the South Korean Army.  He is an incredible on-base guy, and proved he can play center field.  In 2011, Choo was hit in the thumb by Jonathan Sanchez, landing him on the DL for two months, and resulting in his worst statistical season of his career.  The very next season, Choo was once again drilled by Jonathan Sanchez, which is not a huge surprise, given that Sanchez drills a guy every 18 innings or so. Ever since, Choo has struggled against left-handed pitchers, but he is great against right-handers, and still manages a solid OBP against lefties.

Awful Signing: Everyone Signed by the Phillies. The aging Phillies have pulled off the impossible, and got older this year.  They resigned Carlos Ruiz at catcher for three years, worth $26 million, despite only being able to play 92 games in 2013.  Then they went out and signed Roberto Hernandez, who you may not recognize, mostly because he hasn’t done anything positive since his name was Fausto Carmona, causing him to miss one full season due to suspension and a lack of visa, and it was found he is three years older than originally thought.  He is going to receive $4.5 million this year from the Phillies. They have also gone out and signed 36 year old Marlon Byrd, to a two-year deal.  As if that wasn’t enough, they signed a guy who was crushing the ball in the Venezuelan Winter League, but will be turning 40 during Spring Training, Bobby Abreu.  Granted, I was calling for Abreu to get a contract this winter, but I was thinking he should be signed by an American League team, where he can DH against right-handers, not an old Phillies team where he will have to play the field.

Under–the-Radar: Reds, Roger Bernadina, OF, Minor League deal.  The Reds plans are to enter the season with Billy Hamilton leading off and playing center.  Now, I have been impressed with his ability to play the field despite having just over one season of experience in the outfield after spending the majority of his life as a shortstop, but his bat scares me.  I am not convinced he will be able to get on base often, much less his for a decent average.  I am not saying Bernadina will move many dials offensively, but it is great insurance.  He has flashed double digit home run power, he can steal a bag, and he can play impressive defense.  I would not be at all surprised if Bernadina breaks camp with the Reds, and I can just about guarantee he will make a real impact at times this season.

All-January 31st Birthday Team

Today, January 31st, is the birthday of three all-time greats and Hall of Famers; Jackie Robinson, Ernie Banks, and Nolan Ryan.  Now, that would be the start of a pretty epic team, so I decided to jump to the Baseball Reference birthday page and see what kind of lineup I could create from guys born on today’s date.  I will admit, I have no clue who a lot of these guys are, but I am not gonna let that stop me. So, my lineup for players born on January 31st is:

1) Jackie Robinson – 2B – It is pretty easy to put Jackie at the top of my lineup.  He is the Hall of Fame second baseman who broke the color barrier, and was as good an athlete baseball has ever seen.  He played just ten seasons, but hit .311, hit 137 home runs, and stole 197 bags, include home 19 times.

2) George Burns– 1B – No, not the comedian, and not the Simpsons character, but instead the first baseman who played for Indians, Tigers, Athletics, Red Sox, and Yankees from 1914-1929.  He had a batting average better than .300 and and OBP over .350.  He once stole 23 bags in a season, and even had a season with over 200 hits.

3) Ernie Banks– SS – Banks is in the Hall of Fame thanks to hitting more than 500 home runs and driving in more than 1,600 runs.  Mr. Cub actually spent more of his career playing primarily first base (10 seasons) than short (9 seasons) but I can’t pass up the opportunity to create the double play combo of Banks and Robinson.

4) Yuniesky Betancourt– 3B – Ok, clearly there is a lack of power when it comes to January 31st birthdays, in fact the only two players with more than 100 career home runs are the two Hall of Fame position players, and Betancourt has the third most, with 80 career dingers.  Now, I will have to look past his seven straight seasons with a negative WAR and have him hit cleanup.  Who knows, maybe he can revive his career this year in the Japanese Nippon Baseball League.

5) Pinky Hargrave– C – Pinky has a solid name, as does his brother and fellow big leaguer, Bubbles.  Pinky played for four teams between 1923-1933.  His career triple slash line is .278/.339/.428.  He did not make his big league debut until the age of 27, but you gotta like the fact he was just 5’8″ because he was sure to provide a low target for the pitcher.

6) Tim Hendryx– LF – Hendryx was a former New York Yankee when he joined the Boston Red Sox in 1920, the first season following the Babe Ruth trade.  Hendryx led the Red Sox in average and RBIs that season, but he wasn’t exactly a power hitter, launching the same number of home runs that year as I did…and I wasn’t born for another 65 years.  That same year Ruth hit just 54 home runs, drove in 137, walked 150 times, and had a triple slash line of .376/.532/.847.  Regardless, I will stand by the Red Sox and take Hendryx on my squad too.

7) Tex McDonald– RF – Any chance to add a guy named Tex to a lineup, you gotta jump on it.  His big league career was brief, lasting from 1912-1915, where, in addition to the Reds and Braves, he played for teams named the Blues, Buffeds, and Rebels, which apparently were actual Major League teams.  He had 13 home runs and 134 RBIs, which would be a nice season, but those were his career numbers, Still, his name is Tex, so he makes my lineup.

8) Mel Mazzera– DH – While Mazzera played long before the DH was even a consideration, his final season was in 1940 while the DH was not instituted until the 1973 season, his Baseball Reference page does have one of his positions as a pinch hitter, so that will suffice.  He had just 507 career at-bats, where he hit just 10 home runs and drove in less than 70.  His average was .268, but slugged over .400, so that is good enough for this lineup.

9) Melky Mesa– CF –  True, Mesa has only played eight career games over two seasons, but he is 6/15 lifetime for a batting average of .400.  He has yet to hit a home run in his career, but he is entering his age 27 season in 2014, a season in which fantasy players have long argued is a position player’s prime season.  I will also admit it, he was one of just a handful of names I actually recognized from the list, so I had to include him.

Nolan Ryan– SP – Yes, my starting pitcher was an easy selection given it is the career strikeout king, and a man who has thrown seven no hitters (which might come in handy with the lineup I put together).  He is a Hall of Famer, and grade A badass.  While he will probably go all nine innings, I would have Josh Johnson at the ready.

You can follow Shaun Kernahan on twitter @shaunkernahan, add him to your network on Google, and like Shaun on Facebook.

Most Annoying Super Bowl Storylines

Every year around this time, the media does a phenomenal job out beating dead horses and desperately trying to make stories out of things that are non-issues. It’s unspeakably annoying. It’s as if they think a game the magnitude of the Super Bowl needs additional hype or something. Here’s a few that make us want to stab ourselves in the eardrums.

Torsten’s top three:

Number One Scoring Offense vs. Number One Scoring Defense: Ok, we get it. Denver has an explosive offense, Seattle has a sturdy defense. Here’s why it’s crap. Yeah, Denver scored the most points and Seattle allowed the fewest to be scored upon them. Does it make them the best? Maybe, maybe not. Sure, Denver’s offense is great, but their point total is somewhat inflated by the fact that they continued to bomb the ball down the field in garbage time of games that were already blowouts and their opponents had essentially thrown in the towel (See 12/22 vs. Houston). I don’t think there’s anything wrong with keeping the pedal to the medal, per se, but it’s not a matter of debate that this type of philosophy will impact point totals. Additionally, Seattle’s defensive prowess is somewhat inflated because of how brutal the atmosphere is for visiting teams. At home, they’re liable to hang a goose egg on any offense. On the road, where offensive linemen can get off with the snap as opposed to a split second late, they can be run on a little bit, and that makes a difference.  But anyway, this is the Super Bowl! Obviously, any team that gets here is going to be pretty good on both sides of the ball. They have to be. That’s why they’re the last two remaining. 

Richard Sherman: It’s truly ridiculous. He goes on a WWE villain-type rant in his post-game interview after making the game-deciding defensive play, insulting Michael Crabtree, and everyone is quick to call him names, including “thug.” All of a sudden, people jump on the other bandwagon. Oh, Sherman overcame incredible odds to avoid gangs in Compton, demonstrate academic excellence in high school and again in college at Stanford, and look at the genuine distress he was in over NaVorro Bowman’s gruesome knee injury! Come on… having empathy when a colleague, even an opponent, suffers a terrible injury doesn’t make you special. It makes you not a sociopath. And his assertion that being called a thug is just a notch below being called the N-word, well that’s just lunacy. For those of you that care, the word thug originates from circa-13th century India about a nefarious group of scoundrels that gave people a bad time. It was and is commonly used to describe mafia and other organized crime henchmen whose sole purpose was to physically intimidate or harm people who didn’t “play ball.” And yes, it is used in connotation with black gang members as well, but if it’s equivalent to one of the more despicable slurs out there, why did Tupac Shakur start a hip hop group called Thug Life, alluding to thug life being more about overcoming adversity and achieving success? Anyway, what it boils down to is this. I’m not a shrink, but it appears Richard Sherman is an excellent football player, academic and intelligent, a little narcissistic, and perhaps a little underdeveloped socially. But ultimately, who gives a sh*t? He’s just one player, albeit a good one, who is gonna be on the field February 2nd.

The Weed: Granted, this is more of a joke than it is a storyline; the two states who legalized recreational marijuana use are represented in football’s biggest game. But believe you me, there are those people out there (who no doubt have done their fair share of recreational using) who truly believe that it’s some kind of cosmic justice or karma. Really? On the plus side, the topic has come up of medicinal pot use in the NFL, specifically pertaining to the treatment of concussions. Which, if it’s viable, needs to absolutely be implemented. Meanwhile, the joke is old. Let it go already. It’s not like stoners are suffering from a shortage of things that they find funny.

Shaun’s top three:

Before I jump into the three storylines I am sick of hearing, I want to add to one of Torsten’s.  Usually Torsten is the one that loves to throw about conspiracy theories within sports, just ask him about Sepp Blatter or the NFL referees, but he completely missed one.  We are probably all sick of the Peyton Manning and Papa commercials for Papa John’s, but is it really any surprise that main sponsor of the Super Bowl is a pizza company when the two teams that make it to the game come from states that have legalized marijuana?  I think not.  With that said, here are the three storylines I am sick of:

Peyton Manning’s Legacy: Really?!?!  So, if Manning doesn’t win another championship, does that mean he hasn’t been a great quarterback?  As a Patriots fan, I inherently cannot stand Peyton Manning, but there is no debating he is one of the greatest quarterbacks of all-time.  Dan Marino never won a Super Bowl, but guess what, he was great.  One more championship won’t be enough to catapult Manning over Joe Montana in the eyes of anyone that feels Montana is the greatest ever.  Trent Dilfer has won a Super Bowl.  The NFL’s leader in interceptions thrown last season, Eli Manning, has two rings.  Peyton’s legacy is set as one of the greatest ever, regardless of the outcome of Sunday’s game.

Weather: When it was first announced the Meadowlands would be hosing the Super Bowl, I was really hoping it would be about -20 degrees with 60 mph winds because I feel it is a terrible idea, but now that every sports outlet has a full time meteorologist on staff to let us know what the updated projected high and low for Sunday are every half hour, I no longer care.  The two teams in the game come from dynamic home climates.  One, the Broncos, play their home games at high altitude and cold weather.  Meanwhile, the Seahawks play in the wettest city in America.  Rarely does anyone look at the weather before the first cut to the stadium during a pregame show, so why should we this week?

Media: No, seriously, I am sick of everything on TV and radio in terms of the game outside of outlets that actually look at matchups and breakdown the game.  My phone sent me alerts yesterday (Monday) when each team landed at Newark Airport.  What?!?!  Teams flew to Jersey for the game, the plane arrived, and that is news?  Thank you ESPN, you make me a dumber sports fan one update at a time.  Then there is media day.  A whole event dedicated to the media interviewing players…which they do every day anyway, only media day is held on the field.  Oh, wait, no it isn’t, this year the game is in an outdoor stadium with snow on the ground, so they are hosting media day indoors, you know, kinda like every other interview ever. 

A Little Bieber Fun For Ya

Sure, it’s easy to pile onto Justin Bieber. He does seem to go out of his way to make himself as detestable as possible with his behavior. Generally speaking, we stick to sports over here and leave the social commentary on entitled teen pop star d-bags to sites like TMZ where people can actually make a living. But the opportunity for some fun here is just too strong to resist. 

Many celebrities, especially those as insufferably satisfied with themselves as Bieber is, fancy themselves athletes too. Well, if the Biebs was, here are a few play by play calls I wouldn’t mind hearing. 

“The Sabres bring it into the neutral zone and…wait! We have a fight! It’s John Scott and Justin Bieber. The Biebs is giving away 14 inches and about 120 pounds, but he does have pretty hair…”

“The Biebs, yo-yoing the ball up and down, fakes left and drives the lane, and OOOOOOOOOHHHH!!!!  Is that…Charles Oakley!? It appears Charles Oakley just came out of retirement to protect the paint, and Bieber is in the 27th row! Not sure if they called that a foul or a homicide!”

“We’re here at the Sports Science Institute. Today, we’re going to examine what happens to the human body when a defensive lineman nails a quarterback. Jadaveon Clowney has graciously volunteered to be our DE, and as part of his probation, Justin Bieber is our quarterback. Of course, we’ll have to run this play several hundred times to make sure we have all the angles covered.”

“Welcome to the 120 meter high dive competition. As part of his dive, Justin Bieber is going to put on a blindfold. That might mean he can’t see right now that The Stain’s Torsten Sporn is trying frantically to empty the pool of all its water…”

Got any ideas that are better than mine? That’s what we have a comments section for, folks!

It’s a Bird, It’s A Plane, It’s…Carlos Perez?

Hey, Dodger fans? Guess who just retired 4 straight big leaguers in 1.1 perfect innings in the Dominican Winter League Final? If you said Carlos Perez, you’re two things. Right, and probably a heavy drinker.

For those of you who don’t remember, Perez was a Dominican lefty on the Expos, known for being a promising young pitcher and infuriatingly animated on the mound. His career started brightly, and in 1998, the Dodgers traded for him to supplement their pitching down the stretch. And supplement it he did. 4 wins, including a couple of complete game shut outs, led to a lucrative contract extension and boundless optimism among fans (yours truly included) about the future.

And then…well, nobody really knows what happened. Never overpowering to begin with, Perez lost about 8 miles per hour off of his fastball. No longer able to keep hitters honest, his once formidable breaking stuff was getting teed off on, and that was the beginning of the end.

Some guys age gracefully and decline slowly. For others, the end comes rapidly, and it’s often ugly. After a particularly ugly outing in 2000, Perez went ape…uh…poop on a Gatorade cooler, nearly braining teammate Darren Dreifort who was minding his own business nearby. 

2000 was Perez’ last year in the big leagues. For years and years, he was a punch line, as well as a cautionary tale to GM’s looking to reward promising young pitchers with lucrative contract extensions. And then, the memories started to fade. Other pitchers with seemingly bright futures faded away. Rick Ankiel, though to be fair, he did one of the more remarkable things in baseball history, transforming himself from a failed pitcher to a semi-successful big league outfielder. Dontrelle Willis… I’m sure there are others.

Let’s fast forward to today, January 21, 2014. If someone with a cruel sense of humor decided to create a baseball Trivial Pursuit game with a bit of a dark side, one of the questions may be, what do major leaguers Emilio Bonifacio, Engel Beltre, Erick Aybar, and Juan Francisco have in common? The answer would be, they were retired in order by the 42-year-old Carlos Perez. Yes, that Carlos Perez. Bonifacio and Francisco…they went down on strikes.

Baseball is a weird, yet fascinating game. But if Perez somehow parlays this into a minor league invite, I’m not watching it anymore.

AFC Conference Championsip Preview

New England +4.5 @ Denver (55): The New England Patriots beat the Denver Broncos in overtime, in New England earlier this season, after the Patriots handed over a 24-10 halftime lead thanks to multiple fumbles early in that game.  This game is in Denver, and I don’t expect it to be a sloppy game like the first one.  I do believe the Patriots will pull this game out, but if the line was Denver +4.5, I would tell you to take Denver on the betting line. 

The game will come down to a field goal or less, because, well, why not when you have a matchup of the two best quarterbacks in this generation.  In all the great Peyton vs. Brady mathups, neither has ever won a playoff game against the other on the road, but that changes this weekend.  Denver fans can get loud, but nothing like the Colts fans used to get in the dome, so Brady’s audibles at the line shouldn’t be an issue on Sunday.

The Broncos have lost another defensive back, and that could prove to be the difference.  The Patriots have the biggest selection of unassuming wide outs, Danny Amendola, Julian Edelman, and Austin Collie, as any team has ever had, but they are productive.  In addition, the running back depth is impressive, and Shane Vereen can create mismatches all over the field.

For the Broncos to win, they will need to lean heavy on Knowshon Moreno.  The Patriots are thin at defensive tackle and middle linebacker, so a between the tackle running attack is their biggest weakness on defense.  Despite this being a game between two Hall of Fame quarterbacks, the winner will be the team that is able to run the ball more efficiently.

You can follow Shaun Kernahan on twitter @shaunkernahan, add him to your network on Google, and like Shaun on Facebook.

$215 Million: Breaking Down the Clayton Kershaw Deal

The number is staggering. 215 million. That’s how many dollars the Dodgers will be paying Clayton Kershaw, baseball’s best pitcher, for the next 7 years, provided of course that Kershaw does not exercise his out clause after five years. For those of you counting at home, it works out to just under 31 million a year, or roughly 10 million a year more than the Houston Astros’ entire player payroll in 2013.

And you know what, the Dodgers got a bargain. Let’s make some assumptions here, never a great idea, but for the purposes of argument, you have to take some liberties. Assumption one, Kershaw does not suffer an injury that requires Tommy John surgery, or something similar that costs him an entire year. Assumption two, Kershaw does not suffer a sudden and precipitous decline in performance along the lines of, say, Dontrelle Willis. That’s it. Just those two. I’m fine making them because you can bet the Dodgers’ front office made them when they offered the contract.

So, why did the Dodgers essentially get a steal here? Let’s take a look at what baseball’s other top paid pitchers are making. Cliff Lee? 25 million per. CC Sabathia? 23 million. Hell, Tim Freaking Lincecum makes more than 22 million per, and he’s been hardly average (save for his brilliant no hitter) the last two seasons. Other top paid guys include Justin Verlander, Cole Hamels, Matt Cain and teammate Zack Greinke. Now, you can argue that most of these guys are true number ones, and despite baseball salaries being on the bloated side, are paid proportionately what they should be. There’s also one other important thing they have in common. They’re all at least 29 years old. Lee is 35. Sabathia 33. Seven years from now, in the final year of his contract, Kershaw will be 32. Again, assuming no horrid injuries and that Don Mattingly doesn’t leave him in for 16 innings in a meaningless September game, there’s no reason to think Kershaw won’t be still able to perform at peak level at age 32.

Here is some more food for thought. During the course of Kershaw’s contract, here are some of the other stud pitchers who will become eligible for free agency for the first time: Stephen Strasburg and fellow Nat, Jordan Zimmermann, Madison Bumgarner, Mat Latos, and Marlins phenom Jose Fernandez. What do you think those bad boys are going to command a few years down the line? 35 million per? 40 million? I guess it all depends on their performance. But you can say this, apart from Hernandez, upon whom the jury is still out on just how awesome he can be, none of those guys are on Kershaw’s level. Even the older guys, what do you think Adam Wainwright would command right now if he were a free agent? Well, he’s 32 now, so he should still have juice in the tank. He’s coming off a marvelous season, and let’s be frank, is simply brilliant. Wouldn’t he get more than Cliff Lee’s 25 million annually? What about a similar pitcher who hits the market in, say, 2017 after a brilliant year. 20 wins, and a sub 3.00 ERA. If baseball’s average annual salary continues to increase annually at a consistent rate, that pitcher’s annual salary will blow Kershaw’s out of the water. And in 2017, Kershaw will still only be 28 and presumably an ace.

Oh, one more thing for perspective. The injured Johan Santana was due to make 25 million in 2014, a figure the Mets paid 5.5 million to not have on their books.

Still not convinced? Go to your fridge, pop open a beer, and read this again.

NFC Championship Preview

San Francisco +3.5 @ Seattle (40): Does anyone else think it’s really funny that the Seahawks refused to sell tickets to anyone in California? Hey, a “rivalry” suggests that teams don’t like each other, right? And while both would probably deny it if you put them on the spot, I’m pretty sure the coaches don’t like each other much. Well, Pete Carroll probably doesn’t like Jim Harbaugh much from their college days after Harbaugh went for a needless two-point conversion with Stanford late in a blow-out win over Carroll’s USC Trojans. And Harbaugh…well, he’s just kind of a d*ck. 

Anyway, here’s where we cover all the obvious stuff. The game is in Seattle. Seattle almost never loses at home. It’s really loud. Blah blah blah. 

Well, last time San Francisco came to Seattle, they got embarrassed. Don’t think they will have forgotten that. So, the question then is, will that serve as motivation for the 49ers, or will it boost the confidence of the Seahawks defense? 

It’s going to prove tough for both offenses to move the ball. It may come down to which of two excellent kickers, Phil Dawson or Steven Hauschka, gets more opportunities. There have been times, this season where Seattle could be run on. If Frank Gore and company get going, it could make the difference. I’m going with a 16-12 win for the ‘Niners, with a late comeback attempt by Seattle stalling in the red zone.

NFL Divisional Weekend – AFC Preview

I will twist Torten’s rodeo analogy, a solid pull by the way, and twist it into the upcoming Olympics.  The Stain is standing atop the podium receiving our gold medals for terrible predictions last week.  Among the eight potential betting lines, spread and over under for each game, I am pretty sure we almost got one right, so if you are in Las Vegas this weekend, be sure to go completely opposite of our choices here.

Indianapolis +7 at New England (53):  As a Patriots fan, and knowing my history in predictions posted online, I am tempted to take the Colts in a blowout, you know, to reverse jinx it, but I have to remain objective here.  The Patriots should win this game, but the seven point spread is huge for this matchup.  With Brandon Spikes hitting IR this week, join Jarrod Mayo and Vince Wilfork, the three best middle defenders, and run stoppers, are now on IR.  Lucky for the Patriots, the Colts are terrible when it comes to running the ball.  The Colts will have to rely on Andrew Luck and T.Y. Hilton, which is actually a good matchup for them this week.  Aqib Talib is a master at shutting down big #1 receivers, but can struggle against the smaller quicker types, aka T.Y. Hilton.  The Patriots offense is a whose who of who’s that.  Gronk is on IR, and the only household name left is Tom Brady.  Shane Vereen is as versatile a back as there is in football, and the best rusher is a guy best known for decking a guy on Boise State, LeGarrette Blount.  Amendola and Edelman are excellent slot guys, but the big play will need to come from one of the rookie receivers.  Robert Mathis will be in the backfield all game, and Brady will come out of the matchup beat up, but will do enough to win.  I see a high scoring game, 34-30 Patriots. 

San Diego +9.5 at Denver (55.5): San Diego is the hottest team in the NFL, having won five straight, including two against Kansas City, and one against Denver, and will give the Broncos all they can handle again.  Picking against Denver is a terrible idea regardless of the matchup, they are the most talented team in the NFL, and have the greatest offense in NFL history, so, I pick the Chargers to win.  Yup, I am running with the terrible idea, and I feel good about it.  Weather shouldn’t play much of a factor in the game, outside of the wind gusts that should reach about 25 mph, which can cause some trouble for Peyton, but that is not going to be the difference in the game.  Keenan Allen is as good a rookie receiver as there has been in several years.  He seems unassuming when watching the game, and never makes the big highlight plays, but watch a Chargers game, and #13 will be a staple.  He will end each game with near 10 grabs, around 100 yards, and a touchdown or two every game.  Ryan Matthews is running like the first rounder they expected when they drafted him several years ago, and Phillip Rivers might be the second best quarterback in the league right now.  Yes, I just punched myself in the gut after writing that, but he is truly playing the quarterback position as good as anyone not named Peyton Manning.  In order to win the game, the Chargers need to keep the score reasonable, and they will, easily covering the spread, and just coming in on the under.  I pick the Chargers, 28-24.

You can follow Shaun Kernahan on twitter @shaunkernahan, add him to your network on Google, and like Shaun on Facebook.

NFL Playoff Weekend Preview: NFC

Well, if they were giving out belt buckles for worst playoff predictions last weekend, our pants would certainly have been securely fastened to our waists. This weekend’s matchups will hopefully make us look less like blithering fools, and more like we actually know what we’re talking about with this stuff. 

New Orleans +8 at Seattle (46.5):  Well, what do we know? Seattle is brutal at home. Last visit the Saints made up there didn’t go well for them at all. And whatever this polar vortex thing is, it’s making places cold. Very cold. Does Drew Brees like the cold? Not really. Seattle can be run on, but unfortunately, the Saints don’t really have a strong running game. Last week, I bagged on the Saints D a little bit, but they performed better than I thought against Philadelphia’s explosive offense. And Seattle, while good, is not Philly on offense. That 46.5 over/under looks really high for me. I’m seeing a defensive and elemental battle here. Nobody (besides Arizona) beats Seattle at home, I’m taking the ‘Hawks 17-10. 

San Francisco -1 at Carolina (42): I hate clichés like “point are going to be at a premium,” and nonsense like that. Points are always at a freaking premium. Without them, you can’t win. It’s going to be a real “field position battle.” Really? F*** you! Every game is a field position battle. If it wasn’t, teams would go for every single fourth down. But anyway, they rankle me less for this game than others. I’d bet my life’s savings (not very much) on the under (and probably lose, kowing my luck). Coaches, except in game-winning situations, view field goals largely as consolation prizes. Well, we didn’t get in the end zone, send the pseudo football player out there to boot one through the big yellow thing. But when you look at this game, “field goal range” is probably going to be a very early consideration. It’s a self-fulfilling prophecy: when you go against superior defenses (which both teams have), you tend to adopt a conservative game plan, thereby putting a ceiling on how effective you can be on offense, making it easier for the defense to stop you. But at least you’re not committing turnovers! Anyway, both teams use the read option, so both teams can stop it. I really have no idea. I’m going to go with Carolina by a score of 16-6, but not because they’re the home team. Because they have former 49er Ted Ginn returning punts, and he might break one off.   

There you have it. Am I right? You can bet on it! Just know, if you do, you might lose.