New England +4.5 @ Denver (55): The New England Patriots beat the Denver Broncos in overtime, in New England earlier this season, after the Patriots handed over a 24-10 halftime lead thanks to multiple fumbles early in that game. This game is in Denver, and I don’t expect it to be a sloppy game like the first one. I do believe the Patriots will pull this game out, but if the line was Denver +4.5, I would tell you to take Denver on the betting line.
The game will come down to a field goal or less, because, well, why not when you have a matchup of the two best quarterbacks in this generation. In all the great Peyton vs. Brady mathups, neither has ever won a playoff game against the other on the road, but that changes this weekend. Denver fans can get loud, but nothing like the Colts fans used to get in the dome, so Brady’s audibles at the line shouldn’t be an issue on Sunday.
The Broncos have lost another defensive back, and that could prove to be the difference. The Patriots have the biggest selection of unassuming wide outs, Danny Amendola, Julian Edelman, and Austin Collie, as any team has ever had, but they are productive. In addition, the running back depth is impressive, and Shane Vereen can create mismatches all over the field.
For the Broncos to win, they will need to lean heavy on Knowshon Moreno. The Patriots are thin at defensive tackle and middle linebacker, so a between the tackle running attack is their biggest weakness on defense. Despite this being a game between two Hall of Fame quarterbacks, the winner will be the team that is able to run the ball more efficiently.