“Analytics is just a word… it’s a huge asset to have information and the ability to use it.” Rocco Baldelli, Minnesota Twins manager.

Well when you put it like that, it’s a wonder that we’re steaming in on 2019 and there’s still a large part of baseball’s fan contingent that is completely resistant to the concept of analytics in baseball. But look, I get it. I’m really only a recent convert to analytics, maybe in the last two or three years. And that’s not to say I have abandoned good old-fashioned observation and traditional statistics; only that I’m basically doing what Baldelli says above – availing myself of more information.

Members of the analytics-subscribing baseball fan community have lamented to me the lack of acceptance for analytics in baseball fandom’s mainstream. I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but to a certain degree, they never will be. On a television broadcast, it’s always going to be a battle to supplant batting average and home runs as the go-to stats when talking about a hitter’s ability. Let’s face it, the announcer has a few seconds to introduce the hitter and do a bit of color commentary before the guy steps into the batter’s box. Purely in terms of fitting what you need to fit into that brief window, it’s way easier to talk about a guy’s batting average or on base percentage than it is his wRC+ for the very simple fact that the first two don’t require an explanation.

Is wRC+ a better measuring stick for a player’s offensive value than batting average? Absolutely, and it’s not close. That said, on any given broadcast, what percentage of people know (or care for that matter) how wRC+ is calculated, and what it means for the probable outcomes of a player’s at bat? Add to that ongoing efforts to shorten the length of games, don’t hold your breath waiting for MLB to create windows in its game structure for the announcers to explain it.

That’s not to say, however, that analytics can’t gain a greater foothold in the baseball fan community. I, for one, would like to see this happen, but I am also realistic that there are some pretty big obstacles to overcome if this is going to happen. Fortunately, these obstacles are less complicated than the calculations for some of the metrics. Here they are:

The people: Since I started this article with a person (Baldelli), I might as well start here with one. Baldelli’s approach to it is the right one – the fan-friendly one. He’s basically saying that they’re trying to accumulate as much information as they can in order to put their players into the best positions to succeed. With every single pitch of every single game available in stunning high definition, there is more data out there than ever. If you have access to something that shows you Pitcher A has the most success throwing a certain pitch, but only uses that certain pitch 19% of the time, you have done exactly what Baldelli said.

However, this is not the approach analytics subscribers have taken with skeptics in my experience. God forbid you mention batting average or runs batted in to one of these folks. You might as well have walked into rural Mississippi with a “Vote Hillary” headband on. Yes, new metrics are definitely more reliable and exacting indicators of a player’s offensive performance, and a statistic like batting average which weighs singles and home runs equally is inherently flawed. Yes, runs batted in are heavily dependent on how well the hitters in front of a player get on base. No, you don’t have to be a pedantic ass when talking about it.

I suspect a lot of the condescending smugness is due to residual animosity the intellectual crowd still holds against the jocks from high school who treated them like crap, and being able to demonstrate their intellectual superiority in adulthood is in some way cathartic and blissfully revengeful. I mean, can’t you just take silent pleasure in knowing your paycheck is probably twice or three times what Meathead Malone now makes at the local Dick’s Sporting Goods?

This isn’t the Old West, and this town is in fact big enough for the both of you.

The metrics themselves: Yup. Even though a much more precise method of analysis takes place with the metrics, they often provide data that is at best confusing and at worst useless. Take WAR, or VAR. Each is used to determine how much better a certain player is than a proverbial “replacement” player. Sounds like a valuable tool, right? Sure, except that there are several sources of this metric, and rarely do they align with one another on a player. How are you to know which is reliable?

Take launch angle. Sure, there’s a sweet spot where the majority of home runs are hit (25 to 26 degrees), but that’s absolutely meaningless unless combined with sufficient exit velocity. I get the appeal when Giancarlo Stanton mashes one of his prodigious and majestic dongs into the stratosphere, but in 99% of batted balls, I can imagine exactly zero scenarios where anyone should care what the launch angle was. To be fair, there are hitters out there who say they looked at their average launch angles and decided to focus more on hitting the ball in the air, with impressively positive results, but they could likely have done the same by just acknowledging they hit too many weak grounders and correcting accordingly. Want a cool metric to use instead of launch angle? Hard hit percentage. How often does a guy square up a ball? Hint. The good hitters do it more frequently.

Take defensive metrics. Wow, what a dumpster fire. To be fair, defensive stats like Catch Probability have taken hold on television broadcasts, and while it’s hard to say with any degree of confidence that they’re accurate, it’s pretty damn exciting to watch someone like Kevin Pillar make an absurd play to take a triple away from a guy, and have the graph come up confirming he just made a play with a 3% Catch Probability. Still, the majority of defensive metrics…well, suck. Mike Trout can go from being a profoundly negative defender in center field, to Gold Glove caliber the next season. For much of the first half of 2018, the Rockies’ Nolan Arenado, probably one of the three or four best defenders at third base of the last 25 years, was rated as a negative defender. Manny Machado was metrically one of the worst defenders in baseball. Manny Machado!

Even when defensive metrics make sense on the surface, red flags abound. Take Matt Kemp, rated analytically as one of the worst outfield defenders in the history of history, behind only Old Four Toes McGillicutty of the Port Philbanks Plankwalkers from 1857 to 1861. And he had a peg leg. There were some dWAR corrections this year, but before that, defensive metrics would have you believe that Kemp would need to win the offensive triple crown to have any value. In fact, he could get the game winning hit in the ninth inning of ten straight games, and never have a single ball hit to him in left field, and still over the course of those ten games come out to be a negative player because his dWAR is so bad.

My advice? Stick to catch probability, and the infield equivalent. Route efficiency is another fun one, and since the geniuses behind it decided to put the function in the nomenclature, it doesn’t require explaining. And if you really want to have a good time looking up a player’s defensive ability, Fangraphs’ Inside Edge Fielding is a superb and fun resource. And in case you were wondering, yes, a player has indeed made a play rated as “impossible.” His name is Andrelton Simmons, and seeing as you can simply observe that he’s beyond incredible in the field, it passes the sniff test.

The false narratives: Whoa boy… this one is probably my favorite. With the rise of analytics, and the increased use of in-depth statistical probability, certain truths about baseball have come to light. For example, the sacrifice bunt has all but disappeared from the game except by pitchers. Why? Well, the numbers bear out that giving up an out to advance a runner is less likely to result in a run than letting the (non-pitcher) batter try to hit. Jay Bell had like a billion sacrifices from the two-hole one year for the Pirates or Diamondbacks… some inconsequential franchise anyway…(easy, guys, I’m kidding). And you know what? You’ll never see that again. Not only does it make you less likely to score, it cuts off at the knees your likelihood of scoring multiple runs in an inning. There is one exception. You are slightly more likely to score with runners on second and third with one out, than you are with runners on first and second and nobody out. This, of course, does not take into account who is hitting. It’s merely an aggregate calculation. Well, while the bunt has all but disappeared, the narrative has become among the aforementioned “people” that if you bunt, you’re an idiot. Is that really an attitude to take if you’re trying to get adopted by the mainstream? Also, and while I realize the bottom of the ninth inning in a tied game is a very specific instance, it’s one that happens frequently enough and it’s one in which only one run is needed to score. If you can use the bunt to ensure you have one of your better hitters coming up in a situation where only a fly ball is needed to win the game, why would you not at least consider that? I’m not talking about having Mookie Betts bunt to give Blake Swihart a chance to win the game. But if you reverse the names, doesn’t it make a little sense?

Here’s another example. Not too long ago, someone came up with this characterization of the three true outcomes player. Basically, a guy would either hit a home run, walk, or strike out most of the time. Adam Dunn would be the prototype. Another guy who would fit this model, at least until 2018 when he cut down on his strikeouts (and lo and behold, became a more valuable offensive player) is Joc Pederson. Yeah. Dunn was a very valuable hitter. Pederson can be too. But for every Dunn, there are dozens of Ryan Schimpfs. Out of this three true outcomes fad came the notion that strikeouts don’t matter because all outs are created equal. God forbid you suggest that a batter hit behind the runner when there’s a guy on second with nobody out. You might as well have suggested beef wellington to a vegan. Meanwhile, the Kansas City Royals went to two World Series, winning one, with an offensive philosophy of putting the ball in play. The two most recent World Series winners, Boston and Houston, both ranked among the teams who struck out the least in their winning seasons. It’s simple. A strike out, unless the catcher fails to hold the pitch, is always going to be an out. A batted ball has a round about 30% of becoming a hit. And this doesn’t even take into account having to make a fielder make a play. Because for every human vacuum cleaner like Andrelton Simmons, there’s a statue like Corey Seager who can barely range a foot to either side.  

Lastly, if I hear one more thing about spin rate, I might blow a fuse. Sure, if you want to know who throws a fastball that rises (even if there’s no such thing), or who throws one that sinks, you can look at spin rate. But honestly, if you’re trying to determine who is an effective pitcher, something like “out rate” will give you a better indication than spin rate.

I’ll leave it there while my blood pressure is still at manageable levels. Thank you for reading.

I owe Jared Goff an apology. Here’s why.

It’s more than just Goff turning out to be better than I (and to be fair, most football/Rams fans I know) expected. That happens frequently enough. I didn’t think Todd Gurley would be as incredible as he is. Sure, I knew he’d be good. We all did. I just didn’t think his explosion would ever get back to 100% after his college knee injury, thereby limiting his potential to merely good, rather than special and transcendent. It also happens enough that a guy I proclaim to be the messiah ends up out of football in three seasons. It happens. I was beyond convinced that Greg Robinson was going to be the next great Rams offensive tackle, carrying on the legacy of the great Jackie Slater and Orlando Pace. Whoa, did I swing and miss on that slider in the dirt.

But neither of these examples, nor any others I could provide, approach how badly I got Jared Goff wrong.

It started before the 2016 draft. The blockbuster trade with the Titans hadn’t gone down, and there certainly weren’t any rumors I was aware of. I was cautiously optimistic that the Rams were going to finally address a variety of glaring roster deficiencies that may finally set the team on a path to respectability in spite of Jeff Fisher’s brutal ineptness as a head coach. I was fine with Case Keenum at quarterback. You know, not long term, but he was fine. And when you have a guy who will do a mostly acceptable job on a team with far more pressing needs, why not take of those first? And then the trade announcement came on my morning commute.

I didn’t immediately lose hope. For a brief time, I held out some hope that they’d take Carson Wentz. Again, I didn’t think they needed a quarterback, but if they were going to take one, Wentz’s combination of athleticism and aptitude would have made him my choice in spite of never having faced elite college competition. It rapidly became apparent, however, that Goff was the organization’s target, and I couldn’t stop bitching about it.

Not that I thought Goff was awful; I didn’t. I just thought he was… decidedly average. Tall, skinny guy with a big arm. Fairly accurate, but also mostly immobile. Joe Flacco on a good day. Again, there’s nothing wrong with Flacco. He’s been a champion for Christ’s sake. But if you’re mortgaging your entire future to pick a guy, he should be better. Couple all of that with Goff not sounding all that bright in his interviews, I was ready to whole-heartedly assume the worst.

As an aside, something dawned on me in hindsight here. Jeff Fisher had one of the most simplistic, uninventive, and predictable offensive philosophies I have ever seen, so if a quarterback with limited brainpower was going to succeed, he’d do it a system like Fisher’s. Anyway, just wanted to get that in here before I forgot…

Back to the point, from the moment the Rams drafted Goff to the end of the 2016 season, my “I told you sos” were at a fever pitch. Waste of a top pick! Waste of all the great picks to acquire him! If a hack like me can see it, why can’t these idiots who get paid millions of dollars to work in football see it!?

Fast forward to 2018, crow has never tasted so good. I’ve gone from being Goff’s fiercest critic to his staunchest supporter, and that’s saying something considering the fact that some say he’s a dark horse MVP candidate. Now, when people say he’s just a “system quarterback,” I put them in their place. How does that happen? It’s mostly the fickleness of results, but there’s a lot that goes into it.

It’s not just the impossibly accurate throws, like the gorgeous touchdown dime to Cooper Kupp in the corner of the end zone against the Vikings. It’s not just the pocket presence, and progression reading before firing bullets into the zone’s soft spots. It’s not just the almost instantaneous grasp of Sean McVay’s intricate offensive blueprint. While all those things have something to do with it, there’s an offensive swagger that we haven’t seen since Kurt Warner and the Greatest Show on Turf. You know you can take 35 points to the bank every week. It doesn’t matter whether that’s in the comforts of home, or the unfriendly confines of hostile venues like Seattle. No, it won’t always be enough, as evidenced by the week 9 loss to New Orleans, led by its own brilliant quarterback. But it’s there, and he’s the general.

No, he’s not perfect. His internal clock still needs work, as evidenced by some of the coverage sacks he takes. He still makes the occasional head scratching pass, like the one that floated between the numbers of San Francisco’s Jaquiski Tartt, who somehow contrived to drop it. He seems to sometimes have trouble with the play clock, leading to unnecessary timeouts wasted.

And yes, having an offensive line that can actually block helps. Having a head coach whose football acumen exceeds that of your average toddler helps. Talented receiving corps? Check. Superstar running back? Double check. But none of it moves without the engine, and that’s your 24-year-old franchise quarterback. And in the next year or two, you might very possibly be adding “Super Bowl winning” to that description.

So there you have it. I’m sorry, Jared. I was wrong about you.

I cringe every time I see another celebrity post about the supposedly appalling sexist discrimination Serena Williams faced at the U.S. Open. The bottom line is, she reacted petulantly to adversity, and the umpire was well within his rights to not just penalize her a game, but send her packing altogether. Now, it’s a good thing he didn’t. The outrage over the perceived discrimination towards Serena already puts an undeserved asterisk next to Naomi Osaka’s first Grand Slam title. Osaka played better, and deserved to win. 

Serena Williams isn’t just the best women’s tennis player in history, she’s the most dominant athlete in history. No iconic athlete has ever run roughshod over their competition the way Serena has, both comprehensively and for anywhere near as long. Not Tiger Woods in his prime. Not Michael Jordan. Not anyone. The only person I can think of that eviscerated their competition with anywhere close to the level of ruthlessness is Mike Tyson, and he only did it for a handful of years. Serena has done it for two decades. Like it or not, when you’re a living and active legend, you are under a microscope. Everything you do becomes headline news. Everything you stand for? That’s headline news too. Any time your veneer cracks and you show a moment of weakness? The vultures circle and descend. 

I sure hope nobody takes this article as that; taking an opportunity to be unnecessarily critical of someone who rarely gives the haters a window. It’s the opposite, in fact. You’d be hard-pressed to find a bigger Serena Williams fan than me. I am in constant admiration of her on-court dominance, off-court grace, perpetual class, you name it. Let her actions when members of the crowd, in a stunning display of assholery began to boo Osaka, serve as a shining example of why. 

I was also pretty pissed when they decided to ban her from wearing her iconic black outfit at Roland Garros. THAT was sexist, and probably a few other things too. 

But penalizing her on-court behavior at the U.S. Open? No. In fact, NOT penalizing her would have been sexist. In tennis, as well as all sports, male athletes are rebuked for their in-competition behavior at a rate that exponentially exceeds women. This is 99% because male athletes are generally churlish adolescents who lack the impulse control to behave in any way other than spoiled rich kids, but still, the point stands. In order for something to be sexist, it has to be applied (or not applied) to someone on the basis of their gender. And in tennis, you can’t smash your racket, and you can’t verbally abuse the chair umpire. Just ask John McEnroe, Goran Ivanisevic, Jeff Tarango, Nick Kyrgios, and any number of men who have done it. Just because women have the emotional maturity to not throw toddler-like tantrums when something on the court doesn’t go their way doesn’t mean they get a pass when they slip up. 

Yes, I’m sure you can find a video of Roger Federer losing his trademark composure and dropping a few f-bombs in the direction of a chair umpire, and not getting punished for it. I’ve seen it. Should he have gotten warned? Probably. Had he already smashed his racket and received illegal coaching in the play leading up to his tantrum? Doubtful, so let’s stop it with the non-sequitur comparisons.

Sexism, in sport and and life, is a real problem. It’s shocking and more than a little depressing that in 2018, we still haven’t societally addressed and eliminated it sufficiently. In an evolved society, sexism should be vanishingly rare. But it isn’t, and part of the problem is the peanut gallery’s inclination to floodlight every perceived sleight as sexism, racism, or whatever category of discrimination you want to apply. When we do this, we dull the piercing blade of the spotlight on actual acts of discrimination, turning it into the butterknife that is the floodlight. 

Stop it.  

Let’s talk about a hypothetical situation. You’re a Major League Baseball pitcher, and you’re on the hill. The home plate umpire has been, at least in your eyes, squeezing you all game long. Either that, or he’s Angel Hernandez and nobody really knows what the hell he’s doing. You’re battling and struggling, but keeping your team in the game, all the while keeping your mounting anger at the plate ump’s perceived slights at bay. Then it happens. The manager comes out to get you. You’ve reached your pitch limit, or maybe got into a jam, and you hand him the ball. You can say whatever you want now, right? Oh sure, you might get run, but who cares? You’re not on the hill again for another five or six days. 

Umpires have a pretty tough job. Some verbal abuse from players and coaches, and a lot of it from fans, is part and parcel of the deal, but MLB benefits when everybody gets along for the most part. These umps range in ability and performance from outstanding to appalling, and everything in between. I’d also bet Pete Rose a substantial sum of money that at least a few of them have a serious gambling problem — for what other explanation can there be for their consistent mind-bogglingly poor performances? They also tend to have fairly short memories, so by the time a pitcher who berated a particular umpire gets around to that same umpire calling balls and strikes again, he’ll have been hollered at by so many other players that it’s a non-issue.

But does that make it right? 

Just in the past few days, Chris Sale and Madison Bumgarner were tossed out of games they were departing anyway. Sale is purported to have called the plate umpire…uh…one who does un-biblical acts with his maternal parent, while Bumgarner… let’s just say I have a tough time writing about him without bringing my personal feelings into it so you can read about his ejection here. And in a few days, both ace pitchers will take the hill for their respective teams again.

 

 

 

When we started this site years ago, without expectations of where it would take us, I never could have dreamed of the opportunities it would present for us. Since we started I have covered events put on by the NFL stocked full of Hall of Famers, covered every level of baseball from elite High School to the MLB and in over a dozen ballparks. I have been in the press box and locker rooms of the NHL and will be on the pitch of multiple USL teams along with covering pro rugby, rodeo, and lacrosse coming in the near future. This is not meant as a pat on the back, but instead to create perspective as to what I am about to share. Saturday I had the privilege of covering the most awe inspiring sporting event I have ever experienced, the DoD Warrior Games.

From 2010 to 2014 the Warrior Games were exclusively in Colorado Springs as it was put on by the US Olympic Committee in partnership with the DoD (Department of Defense). In 2015, the DoD took over the games and began moving it to new locations each year, always hosted by a branch of the military. The Marines hosted in 2015 in Quantico, followed by a trip to West Point hosted by the Army in 2016 and the Navy welcomed the Warrior Games to Chicago in 2017. In 2018 the games returned to their roots and took place at the Air Force Academy in Colorado Springs.

There were athletes representing eight “teams” at the 2018 games, with those being the Army, Navy, Marines, Air Force, SOCOM (Special Operations Command), United Kingdom Armed Forces, Australian Defence System, and the Canadian Armed Forces. They competed in 11 Paralympic style events over nine days with gold, silver, and bronze medals handed out for each event. The events featured wounded, ill, and injured service members who enrolled with their service’s wounded warrior programs and then qualifying for the games. The featured events are archery, cycling, time trial cycling, field, indoor rowing, powerlifting, shooting, sitting volleyball (a great watch, look it up), swimming, track, and wheelchair basketball.

On the grounds they held exhibits to show able bodies and non-abled alike what it is like to participate in adaptive sports and that people of all physical conditions can compete and play together.

I was at the Bronze Medal Game between the Navy and Marines and Gold Medal game between the Army and host Air Force. The Navy beat the Marines rather handily to take home bronze, while the Army took home the gold over Air Force.

In the end, the results didn’t matter (although you couldn’t tell based on the incredible competitiveness on display on the court) but it was the conversations had with these athletes and support that could be seen that was truly incredible. There were dozens of emotional support and service dogs in the building that assist many of the athletes with PTSD and other mental health struggles. Also in attendance were combat canines who are suffering from PTSD themselves.

This is Tisha Knickerbocker’s dog and a couple of Tisha, a Marine. She was a small scrappy point guard who was quick all over the court and not afraid to mix it up and get physical when needed. In the event’s program it lists her injuries as PTSD, Traumatic Brain Injury, Spinal Cord Injury, and Loss of motion in left ankle. In the event you were wondering, there is plenty of chairs that collide, people flip over (as you can see as it is Tisha’s chair flipped over below) and the collisions are loud. You get a whole new appreciation for these people as athletes when sitting just feet away from the basket and seeing the effort put in.

Cassidy Busch was hit by the force of an explosion that blew out her entire lower back, but she found normalcy again in sport where she not only competed in wheelchair basketball, but also cycling, field, and swimming.

Alan Thomas’ injuries weren’t disclosed, but he is missing his right leg below the knee. That didn’t stop him from competing in basketball along with powerlifting, sitting volleyball, and track.

 

Kristen Morris represented the Air Force in wheelchair basketball on Saturday, but also participated in cycling, field, sitting volleyball, swimming, and track. Her injuries? Left and right hip reconstruction and a total right hip replacement.

These were just some of the incredible athletes I had the honor of meeting on this day. Many others competed, which represents only a fraction of those currently rehabbing. Do yourself a favor, if you are near a city that will be hosting the Warrior Games, go. If you are unable to experience this first hand, donate to one of the many charities that help our service men and women injured in the line of duty, or simply shake the hand of a vet to thank them for their service. Sports has a unique ability to bring people of all backgrounds and beliefs together. It was an incredible experience to see those who gave so much to allow us that freedom use sports to regain normalcy in their ever-changed lives.

Never fails, I get my mock draft finalized with enough time to either post it and let it breathe, or explain my reasoning and go right up to the start of the draft and have nobody read it. So here it is with no explination other than what the Browns and Giants will do at picks 1 and 2 will make or break every mock draft out there.

 

Pick # NFL team Player Pos. College 1 Cleveland Browns  Josh Allen QB Wyoming 2 New York Giants  Sam Darnold QB USC 3 New York Jets  Josh Rosen QB UCLA 4 Cleveland Browns  Saquon Barkley RB Penn State 5 Denver Broncos  Bradley Chubb Edge NC State 6 Indianapolis Colts  Quinton Nelson G Notre Dame 7 Tampa Bay Buccaneers  Minkah Fitzpatrick DB Alabama 8 Chicago Bears  Denzel Ward CB Ohio State 9 San Francisco 49ers  Roquan Smith LB Georgia 10 Oakland Raiders  Tremaine Edmunds LB Virginia Tech 11 Miami Dolphins  Baker Mayfield QB Oklahoma 12 Buffalo Bills  Mike McGlinchey OT Notre Dame 13 Washington Redskins  Vita Vea DT Washington 14 Green Bay Packers  Josh Jackson CB Iowa 15 Arizona Cardinals  Lamar Jackson QB Louisville 16 Baltimore Ravens  Marcus Davenport Edge UTSA 17 Los Angeles Chargers  Derwin James S Florida State 18 Seattle Seahawks  Harold Landry Edge Boston College 19 Dallas Cowboys  Calvin Ridley WR Alabama 20 Detroit Lions  Derrius Guice RB LSU 21 Cincinnati Bengals  Will Hernandez OG UTEP 22 Buffalo Bills  DJ Moore WR Maryland 23 New England Patriots  Kolton Miller OT UCLA 24 Carolina Panthers  Mike Hughes CB UCF 25 Tennessee Titans  Rashaad Evans LB Alabama 26 Atlanta Falcons  Javen Bryan DT Florida 27 New Orleans Saints  Hayden Hurst TE South Carolina 28 Pittsburgh Steelers Jaire Alexander CB Louisville 29 Jacksonville Jaguars  Christian Kirk WR Texas A&M 30 Minnesota Vikings Connor Williams OL Texas 31 New England Patriots Isaiah Oliver CB Colorado 32 Philadelphia Eagles Dallas Goedert TE South Dakota St.

Here’s the thing. In the digital and social era, where everybody gets their news online from sources ranging from credible to dubious, multiple times a day, sports news isn’t what it once was. Real, hard-hitting news items have gone the way of the dodo bird, while garbage like fabricated narratives and Twitter feuds have taken over.

It is what it is, so we’re stuck with it. But on that note, nowhere does the absurdity go into overdrive quite like it does when it comes to LeBron James. Without a doubt, LeBron IS the greatest player of this generation so he’s going to get more than his share of media coverage. And he hasn’t always done himself favors with his behavior; we’ve turned the “taking my talents to South Beach” dead horse into glue many times on this site, and then of course there’s the condescending and pedantic attitude toward Kyrie Irving (give him the keys, etc).

What am I getting at? I guess my point is, if you can’t beat ‘em, join ‘em.

So let’s start our own fabricated narrative, that if you think about it, isn’t too much of a stretch. Why wouldn’t LeBron sign with Golden State in the off-season, and all but guarantee himself another four or five titles?

Think about it. What is the magic number all NBA players who have, do, and will consider themselves among the greatest of all time? Michael’s six NBA titles, right? LeBron currently has three. Can you think of any player with a bigger ego than LeBron, and to whom it would mean more to be able to say, “I’m better than MJ?” Exactly.

The big factor obviously is money. I abhor research on stuff like this so I’m not gonna find and list all of the Warrior’s contract figures here. But with Steph Curry, Kevin Durant, Draymond Green, and Klay Thompson, there are four guys who are technically “worth” max contracts.

However, if adding four more titles to his tally is more important to LeBron than adding a couple hundred million dollars to the couple billion or so he already has in the bank, couldn’t you see him taking a veteran’s exception? Couldn’t you also see the other guys on the team shaving a couple million off of their own salaries to make a little extra room for LeBron?

Here’s why else it makes sense. LeBron, currently at age 33, is playing as well as he ever has. However, he’s also playing as many minutes as he ever has, and Father Time is undefeated. How long could he be expected to keep up his current level or close to it at his age, playing 38 minutes a game? Goodness only knows, but if that were pared back to, say, 28 minutes a game, a luxury most certainly within reason on a team like the Warriors, he could conceivably play well for another six or seven years.

How many titles would that be? Without making the ludicrous assumption that all would remain status quo and the Warriors automatically win every year, you could still comfortably predict at least four if the core pieces stay in Golden State. That would make a total of seven.

The only other argument I can see people making is that a game day roster consists of 12 guys, not just five. What about the rest of the roster? Easy peasy. Sign three guys with limited or no offensive ability but that can protect the rim. Use your draft picks on guys that are good athletes and good defenders with negligible offense. Pick up a couple of veteran free agents for the minimum salary that are known for their D. The Lakers’ Corey Brewer comes to mind, and voila. Roster.

Will this happen? Eh. Doubtful. The ego, especially that of a superstar basketball player, is monstrous and not conditioned to a “sacrifice a little now for immortality later” mindset. But it could. And if it does, you read it hear first. Unless of course, you read it somewhere else first. In which case, darn. 

By anyone’s reasonable standard, the Rams’ 2017 season was a magical one, the success of which nobody could have predicted. For perspective, many football “experts” were surprised at their playoff loss to the Falcons, last season’s Super Bowl runner up. Let that sink in for a moment. People were caught off guard by a franchise that has been synonymous with futility for nearly 20 years not advancing farther in the playoffs. Crazy, right?

Make no mistake, the Rams’ success this year was huge for the NFL. How the league somehow managed to go multiple decades without a team in its second-largest media market is utterly confounding. Then again, the sport is more than a century old and they still haven’t figure out what the fudge a catch is. I digress… Additionally, the Rams’ initial season back in Los Angeles, under the criminally inept stewardship of Jeff Fisher, was catastrophic. After a misleadingly decent start, the team finished the year by getting blown out every week, their number one overall picked quarterback was taking a savage beating every game, and fans (can you blame them?) showed all the enthusiasm for going to the crumbling Los Angeles Coliseum (again, can you blame them?) as they would for a root canal. If this was going to be the on-field product, what was really the point of having football back in L.A.?

Oh, what a difference a year makes. Initially, the Rams (as well as the newly transplanted Chargers) were treated with a degree of apathy, but within a few weeks, it was plain to see things were a little bit different this time around.

After their playoff defeat, the players and Coach Sean McVay remained upbeat, optimistic about the positive direction the team was going in with its foundation of young stars. The prevailing sentiment on Twitter among fans was an odd combination of despondency and wait ‘til next year resolve. One might think after year upon year of snowballing failure, fans and pundits alike would be more skeptical that 2017 was a sign of bright things to come for the Rams, but it really wasn’t that way. Let’s take a look at why.

The kids are alright: The Rams have an embarrassment of young talent at key positions. Todd Gurley was, if not the best, at least in the top three running backs this season. Jared Goff looked like a number one overall pick. Cooper Kupp may already be among the league’s best overall slot receivers. Aaron Donald is an unstoppable force of nature. To a slightly lesser degree, cornerback Troy Hill showed signs of developing into a potential star. Linebacker Cory Littleton showed a knack for making big plays, including multiple blocked punts. Johnny Johnson looked good after taking over for the appallingly bad Maurice Alexander. There are a few more guys but not to belabor the point, none of these guys are in danger of exiting their mid-20s.

The main kid is alright too: How often do you see “the youngest guy” at anything have instant success? Exactly. Nevertheless, Sean McVay lived up to his billing as an offensive whiz kid, and rounded out that reputation nicely by being a coach that his players look up to, and having a philosophy they buy into. One season does not a career make, but it’s beyond significant doubt that he’s the real deal.

The NFC West: The NFL schedule makers rarely do the Rams any favors. But the team can count its lucky stars it plays in the NFC West. The Seahawks aren’t the powerhouse they once were. The Cardinals are in need of a rebuild. The 49rs are trending up with their acquisition of the excellent Jimmy Garoppolo, but are still a few holes being filled away. The division is, and projects to remain for the near future, eminently winnable. For perspective, the NFC South has the Saints, Panthers, and Falcons; three teams who could have represented the NFC in the Super Bowl and nobody would bat an eyelash. Even division doormat Tampa Bay can play, and their dreadful 5-11 record is as much a result of their brutally tough division as anything else.

But, as they say, nothing is ever a sure thing until it’s a sure thing. Does anyone actually say that? Well, if they don’t, they should. Anyway, the point is, with all the glitz and glamour of their feel-good-story season, the Rams do have some issues to address. Success, if you’re not the Patriots, is fleeting, and must continually be nurtured. In spite of all the reasons for optimism, the Rams do have concerns to alleviate and pitfalls to avoid.

But he’s still a kid… For all his brilliance, there were times McVay showed his inexperience. Modern conventional wisdom dictates, correctly so, that you can’t give your star running back 500 touches in a year and expect him to have any real longevity. But in a win or go home game, McVay got Todd Gurley 18 touches (14 carries, 4 receptions). That isn’t enough. In fact, you can point to nearly all losses the Rams endured in 2017, and the common theme is Gurley didn’t the ball enough. McVay has been good about his mea culpas, admitting where he’s been lacking, but not giving the best player on your team the ball in the biggest game of the year is stunning. Additionally, it looked like McVay and the Rams took for granted they’d be able to move the ball on Atlanta’s talented but burnable defense, and it just didn’t happen. There wasn’t nearly enough Gurley, sure, but there also wasn’t any invention or creativity – the very hallmark of the team’s historic offense. Was it ego or arrogance? Who knows, but if it was, that has to get checked at the door if they make the playoffs again.

The roster is scarily shallow:  For all the young talent on the squad, there is almost no depth. The additions of Andrew Whitworth and John Sullivan transformed the offensive line, but man did we get lucky with injuries. As we saw in week 17 and the second-string line’s utter inability to even slow down a very poor San Francisco pass rush, if anyone gets hurt, the implications are terrifying.  It’s not limited to the O-line either. Alec Ogletree is already not very good. Surprising right? But Pro Football Focus grades him abysmally, and a closer look reveals that he’s pretty much a volume tackler (when he’s not letting running backs run right by him) who makes the occasional big play with his freakish athleticism. If something happens to him, or worse, Mark Barron, you’ve got Bryce Hager and Samson Ebukam playing key roles, and ain’t nobody got time for that. Generally speaking, backups are backups for a reason, but one would hope a winning team doesn’t have such a precipitous drop off from their starters to their reserves. It’s a point of need in Los Angeles, and anyone who denies it is…well, in denial.

Wade @#$%ing Phillips: The history of coaching names in the NFL whose reputations far exceed their track records is a long and illustrious one, and Phillips is firmly on the list. No, his place on there is not as extreme as Fisher’s (reputation: quality coach. reality: historically awful) but he’s got this tag of being a transformatively impactful defensive coordinator and the reality is, he’s just a guy. He seems to do well when his defenses are stacked with talent (see; his career with the Broncos) but if given a roster that doesn’t have an entire manifest of sure-fire hall of famers, he’s just ok. Case in point, the Rams have an incredible amount of talent on their defensive line, and their inability to stop the run was a bugaboo all season. To further underscore the point, both safeties (LaMarcus Joyner and the aforementioned Johnson) are good tacklers that can support the front seven, and still teams ran roughshod over the Rams.

So where does that leave us? Well, with my wish list of course!

1)     Bring back Sammy Watkins. Yeah, it was a weird year for him. He didn’t become the number one guy we hoped he might but his impact as a blocker alone was profound. Sure, you’d like to see fewer unnecessary attempts at one-handed catches when both hands are an option, and maybe a bit better chemistry between he and Goff, but there is zero doubt. He plays a complete game.

2)     Cut Tavon Austin. I don’t even care who takes his place. The mere removal of Austin from the roster will curb the temptation to give him the ball. Sure, his game-breaking speed makes you WANT to get him the ball in space, but he’s simply one of the worst football players in history. He makes Ted Ginn’s questionable hands look like Larry Fitzgerald’s legendary paws. Stevie Wonder has better field vision. And he costs so much damn money. Get. Rid. Of. Him.

3)     Bring back Sullivan and spend every draft pick on offensive linemen. I know, I cheated and put two things on one line item. Sue me.

Did I miss anything? Let us know on Twitter @thestainsports. Thank you for reading. 

It comes down to simple math, really. There’s two of us here at The Stain, so you get two mock drafts. For those of you who remember, Shaun nailed the first seven picks last year, after much trash talking by me. So this year, I’m doing it a little bit differently. Humbly, I… ah, who am I kidding. I’m still talking trash. The following is my first round mock for the 2016 NFL draft. Couple of disclaimers, I’m not projecting trades, though as Shaun and I agree, there could be many. And second, these picks are a combination of how I think the draft will play out, and my opinion of what should be done by the team. And without further ado.

1. Los Angeles Rams: Jared Goff, QB, Cal. I’d take Wentz. And as a Rams fan, I didn’t like the trade. But I get it. QB is an issue, the move to LA, gotta appeal to a new/old fanbase and make a splash. Wentz has the higher ceiling, but Goff the higher floor, and is therefore a safer pick. And though it might be the first time in nearly five years with Fisher as coach that the team does something that makes sense from a roster perspective, it kind of does.

2. Philadelphia Eagles: Ezekiel Elliott, RB, OSU. You moron, they didn’t just trade up for the second pick to take a running back! Didn’t they? I mean, all signs point to Wentz, but why would they spend a Brinks truck on Bradford and Chase Daniel, and then draft a quarterback? It just sounds too weird to me. 

3. San Diego Chargers: Laremy Tunsil, OT, Ole Miss. Quietly, Phil Rivers is putting together a Hall of Fame career. And the Chargers are paying him as such, so it would behoove them to keep him protected. Tunsil could replace King Dunlap at left tackle immediately.

4. Dallas Cowboys: Jalen Ramsey, CB, FSU. If they’re pissed about missing out on Elliott, they won’t show it too much. Ramsey is a superstar at a position the ‘Boys sorely need to shore up.

5. Jacksonville Jaguars: Ronnie Stanley, OT, ND. This Jags offense is going to be pretty good, but they need to protect Blake Bortles better. This is a good way to start doing that.

6. Baltimore Ravens: Joey Bosa, DE, OSU. He was once projected to be the first overall pick. He seems to be a bit of a one trick pony, but he’s certainly exceptional at it. 

7. San Francisco 49rs: DeForest Buckner. Here’s where it gets really interesting. There’s a quarterback still on the board who isn’t a reach. But since Justin Smith retired and Aldon Smith went all criminal and stuff, pass rusher is a huge need. Like…yuuuuuge.

8. Cleveland Browns: Carson Wentz, QB, NDSU. If this happens, Cleveland wins the draft. I don’t even care what they do with the rest of their picks. 

9. Tampa Bay Bucs: Sheldon Rankins, DT, Louisville. I don’t know if the scheme fits here, but the Bucs need defensive line help. They’ve got nearly everything else covered. They’re not far away from being good.

10. New York Giants: Darron Lee, LB, OSU. My favorite player in the draft. You could argue he’s smallish but he is one of the best players in the entire draft irrespective of position and will play at a Pro Bowl level from day one. 

11. Chicago Bears: Shaq Lawson, DE, Clemson. The Bears aren’t just one player away, so if they can find a taker, they will probably trade down. If not, Lawson can fill one of the 48 holes they have on defense.

12. New Orleans Saints: Laquan Treadwell, WR, Ole Miss. What good is a transcendent quarterback if he has nobody to throw to? This could also be Doctson or Fuller… or if you really want to reach, Shepard. 

13. Miami Dolphins: Vernon Hargreaves, CB, Florida. Cornerback isn’t really a giant need, but he’s a Florida kid and a plug and play starter. I’m surprised I didn’t have him gone to someone else before this.

14. Oakland Raiders: Jarran Reed, DT, Alabama. Again, the scheme might be conflicting but he could sort of be a poor man’s Aaron Donald, and anyone who has seen the Rams play the last two seasons can tell you that is the highest of compliments. Some rating systems had him as ranked as high or higher than JJ Watt. 

15. Tennessee Titans: Jack Conklin, OT, MSU. Young stud quarterback. Newly acquired star running back. Blocking for them makes sense. 

16. Detroit Lions: Josh Doctson, WR, TCU. Knee jerk reaction? Hey, why not. Players like Calvin Johnson are irreplacable, but you have to start working toward filling the void in production his retirement created. 

17. Atlanta Falcons: Reggie Ragland, LB, Alabama. In the oversimplification of oversimplifications, a really good player on a really good defense makes sense to pick just about anywhere. But especially here. 

18. Indianapolis Colts: Taylor Decker, OT, OSU. If Andrew Luck’s emulsified inner organs last season weren’t the wake up call the Colts needed, then I don’t know what will be. I don’t know if it’s Decker, or maybe Ryan Kelly or Cody Whitehair on the interior, but if they don’t draft offensive line help here, I quit. Well, no I don’t. But Colts fans should.

19. Buffalo Bills: Robert Nkemdiche, DT, Ole Miss. This is kind of a huge risk here, but think about who the coach is in Buffalo and tell me this doesn’t at least make some sense to you. How far do you expect a kid to drop over a measly fall from a hotel window anyway?

20. New York Jets: Eli Apple, CB, OSU. Revis and Cromartie aren’t getting any younger. Just sayin’…

21. Washington Redskins: Cory Coleman, WR, Baylor. The ‘Skins receivers aren’t exactly poster children for durability. And Coleman is a burner in the DeSean Jackson mold. 

22. Houston Texans: Ryan Kelly, C, Alabama. Kelly can play anywhere on the interior line. The Texans’ investment in Brock Osweiler is not as absurd as it seems on the surface, but it’s still an investment worth protecting.

23. Minnesota Vikings: Leonard Floyd, OLB, Georgia. This would be a huge value here for the Vikes. It’s adding to a nice accumulation of riches already on defense, but I don’t see any real offensive weapons to add here that won’t have a reasonable facsimile available next round.

24. Cincinnati Bengals: Artie Burns, CB, Miami. The Bengals got excellent play from Pacman Jones last season, but he’s 32. There aren’t a ton of holes on this very good team. You could maybe make a case for Sterling Shepard here, but I’m going DB.

25. Pittsburgh Steelers: William Jackson, CB, Houston. The Steelers got ruinously bad cornerback play last year, and only slightly better offensive line play. Take your pick, but one has to be addressed.

26. Seattle Seahawks: Germain Ifedi, OT, Texas A & M. Few picks make as much sense as Ifedi to the Seahawks here. There’s a chance he’s not on the board, but they’ve got to go tackle here. 

27. Green Bay Packers: Su’a Cravens, LB, USC. I don’t really know what position Cravens profiles at in the pros. But he’s a solid playmaker and there’s some USC pedigree at Lambeau already.

28. Kansas City Chiefs: Will Fuller, WR, Notre Dame. The receiving problems are real, people. The receiving problems are real. I mean, Jeremy Maclin helped but…

29. Arizona Cardinals: Paxton Lynch, QB, Memphis. Ok, I’m just gonna be honest. I have to put him somewhere. And Carson Palmer can’t play forever. And I don’t think they see Drew Stanton as a long term heir. 

30. Carolina Panthers: Karl Joseph, S, West Virginia. Pretty deep team gets a chance to fill one of its very few holes. Kinda makes sense. They could try to replace a certain cornerback who bolted to D.C. too, but I don’t see one that slots in at 30.

31. Denver Broncos: Andrew Billings, DT, Baylor. Superbowl team loses Malik Jackson to free agency. Good player is available in draft. Superbowl team picks good player to replace departed good player. If only teams thought as logically as I do, this pick would happen.

32. New England Patriots: The Patriots do not have a first round pick as punishment for cheating. Again. At least they were creative about it.

Shaun did a really nice job going into detail on some additional players and where he thinks they’re going to go. I’m going to focus on just a couple. Rarely do you have two guys who could stake legit claims to being top five picks not being taken in the first round. This year, you do in Jaylon Smith and Myles Jack, the outstanding linebackers from Notre Dame and UCLA respectively.

Both young men have some serious concerns with their knees. Smith’s is more serious as some talent evaluators are saying they don’t even think he sees the field in 2016. People aren’t quite as paranoid about Jack’s knee, but I can’t see anyone risking a first rounder on him either until some reputable medical source clears him at 100%, and it ain’t gonna go down like that. The fourth round is when you can probably start picturing teams becoming willing to part with a pick to redshirt Smith for year, and I don’t see Jack falling past the Giants twice, if he even does once, so he won’t drop out of the second. What’s my point? I don’t really have one. Something just makes me a little wistful when great players drop in the draft due to injuries.

Anyway, come at me bros. Hit us up on twitter @thestainsports to let us know if you agree or disagree with our picks.  

This is not a mock draft trying to predict who is going where as that is pretty close to impossible, especially this year, but instead a mock draft as to who I would pick if I were in the given team’s shoes. I will not predict any trades, although I would not be shocked to see any, if not all, the picks from 3-5 move after one and two have already been dealt, and who knows what happens from there. So, with all that said, here is who I would select for each team.

1) Los Angeles Rams – Carson Wentz – QB – North Dakota State – Long term he will be the better quarterback than Goff and he fits what the Rams want to do better. The Rams will run their offense through Todd Gurley, and Wentz has experience turning his back to the defense to run play action and getting his eyes up the field quickly, something Goff does not have experience with.

2) Philadelphia Eagles – Jared Goff – QB – Cal – There is a part of me that really wants to put Ezekiel Elliot here, in fact I am going away from my intro paragraph as if I were the Eagles that is exactly who I would pick, but you give up what they traded for a running back. So the pick has to be the best available QB, which is Goff.

3) San Diego Chargers – Jalen Ramsey – CB/S – Florida State – In my initial version of this I had them selecting Laremy Tunsil, but they have solid tackles in King Dunlap and Joe Barksdale while their secondary needs more help. Ramsey is a difference maker and his positional questions could also make him position versatile, which is a huge plus in today’s NFL.

4) Dallas Cowboys – Joey Bosa – DE – Ohio State – Chances are they go Elliot here, and I will yell at my TV more than Torsten when the Rams take Goff, but the Cowboys need help on the defensive line, especially when it comes to getting at the QB. They must be passing the joint around in every D-line meeting as half the depth chart there is facing drug suspensions, so adding a difference maker is desperately needed.

5) Jacksonville Jaguars – Myles Jack – OLB – UCLA – I don’t have access to his medical records, obviously, so I don’t truly know what kind of risk this is, especially after their first round pick last year missed the whole season due to injury, but Jack could be a huge impact guy for them. Adding him and a healthy Fowler to the Jags defense to go with an offense that is already solid just might be enough to make them real playoff contenders.

6) Baltimore Ravens – DeForest Buckner – DE – Oregon – The Ravens would love to see Ramsey and/or Bosa get to them, but instead here they are left debating between Tunsil and Buckner. In the end, defensive line is a much bigger need and, despite the depth at the position in this draft, Buckner is a better fit. He is a physical specimen who will be able to really disrupt the passing lanes in a really competitive division, Cleveland not included.

7) San Francisco 49ers – Reggie Ragland – MLB – Alabama – This is a spot the draft could go a little nuts if they decide to reach for a QB like Paxton Lynch, but it is time the 49ers get back to what they were when they were successful recently, and that is a very good defensive team. They have been absolutely decimated at linebacker due to retirements, and Ragland can sit in the middle and command the D.

8) Cleveland Browns – Laremy Tunsil – OT – Ole Miss – One thing is certain, the Browns will not make this pick because it might actually turn out well. They have the makings of a decent offensive line, but they need someone to play right tackle this year and take the reigns from Joe Thomas when he finally gets the chance to get out of town. Tunsil is arguably the best player in the draft, and the Browns would have traded back and still got him in this scenario, which is a scenario we all know the Browns will find a way to screw up and redraft Manziel or take Noah Spence or Nkemdiche.

9) Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Ronnie Stanley – OT – Notre Dame – You have your franchise QB in Jameis Winston, you resigned Doug Martin, you have the biggest group of pass catchers in football, protect them. Some have said Stanley is a better prospect than Tunsil, so take him here and focus the rest of the draft on improving the defense.

10) New York Giants – Leonard Floyd – OLB – Georgia – Quick, name a Giants starting linebacker, yeah, I couldn’t do it either. I went back and forth between Darron Lee and Floyd here, but I am hearing a ton about Floyd being a great fit for the Giants, so I will put him here.

11) Chicago Bears – Darron Lee – OLB – Ohio State – I think the Bears really want Floyd to fall to them, but if he goes to the Giants at ten, just pick the guy I was debating there. He has more strength and a thicker body, which will allow him to play at the end of the line when needed, and is a solid linebacker, a win-win for the Bears.

12) New Orleans Saints – Sheldon Rankins – DT – Louisville – I could see the Saints taking a big WR here like Laquon Treadwell and then going all defense the rest of the draft, or they could just focus completely on fixing that terrible defense. Rankins is a big body that can also disrupt the passing game from the interior, which can help the defense as a whole.

13) Miami Dolphins – Ezekiel Elliot – RB – Ohio State – If the Dolphins are able to stay at 13 and still get the guy they want/need, they will be doing backflips in the war room, and I say they get him. They lost Lamar Miller, Jay Ajayi is a good RB but not an every down back, Elliot can be a game changer for them. This is one of the easiest picks I had in the whole first round.

14) Oakland Raiders – William Jackson III – CB – Houston – The Raiders actually have a decent offense but do need a running back. Elliot is off the board and there are not any other first round options at the position, so the focus will shift to the defense. Their secondary needs help and Jackson is the second best player in the secondary in this draft. He is the biggest first round corner and should be able to handle the best receivers in the division.

15) Tennessee Titans – Jack Conklin – OT – Michigan State – While Tunsil and Stanley have the higher upside, many say Conklin is the offensive lineman most ready to step in day one and make a difference. The Titans collected a boat load of draft picks and still get their biggest need by sticking at 15, this is a win for them and now can take their plethora of second round picks to get back into the back end of the first round if a corner they really like slips.

16) Detroit Lions – Shaq Lawson – DE – Clemson – This is the toughest pick for me thus far as the Lions could go in several different directions. I was tempted to put Taylor Decker here, I was also debating between A’Shawn Robinson and Jarron Reed to line up next to Haloti Ngata and be his eventual replacement, but I like Lawson to line up opposite one of the most underrated pass rusher in the NFL, Ziggy Ansah. There will likely be a solid DT when they come up in the second round but there won’t be many pass rushers left, and that ultimately was the tie breaker for me.

17) Atlanta Falcons – Kamalei Correa – OLB/DE – Boise State – The industry seems to like Darron Lee here, but I have Lee going much earlier. This might be the pick I end up being furthest from true draft position on, but I really like Correa. I was tempted to put Kevin Dodd here, but I see a ton of bust potential there and I think the floor for Correa is higher. He can serve a pair of needs as the Falcons need help at linebacker and also need someone that can get to the QB no team had fewer sacks than them last year, Correa does both.

18) Indianapolis Colts – Taylor Decker – OT – Ohio State – Few teams allow hits on their quarterback with more frequency than the Colts. Few teams have a better young quarterback than the Colts. Therefore the Colts need upgrades at offensive line. Seriously, it is that straight forward.

19) Buffalo Bills – Kevin Dodd – DE – Clemson – The Bills defense was terrible, especially for a Rex Ryan team, and they released Mario Williams while signing nobody of note to replace him. I just recently said Dodd has bust potential, which he does, but he also has big sack number potential. He can start from day one and could make an impact, or he could be like the Bills defense from last year and be MIA, time will tell.

20) New York Jets – Corey Coleman – WR – Baylor – Here is a surprise pick that I unfortunately like for the Jets (I am still a Patriots fan after all). They have Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker on the outside, but the NFL is a three or more receiver set league, so an elite speed/slot guy is important. They signed Matt Forte in the offseason, so this would make the Jets one of the more feared offenses on the game, if they have a QB. Many people have Paxton Lynch here, and if he were more ready to produce I might as well, but I still believe they sign Ryan Fitzpatrick and Coleman would help give the Jets one of the most feared group of pass catchers in the league.

21) Washington Redskins – Jarran Reed – DT – Alabama – The Redskins could use a guy to handle the nose and Reed is arguably the best run stuffer in the draft. Karl Joseph would be an interesting pick, and he would be the best safety the team has had since Sean Taylor, and going at #21 would be a cool coincidence, but defensive tackle is the bigger need.

22) Houston Texans – Laquon Treadwell – WR – Ole Miss – The Texans would be thrilled to see this play out. Possibly the best receiver in the draft falling to them all the way at 22 to line up opposite DeAndre Hopkins and be another target for new QB Brock Osweiler. If Treadwell isn’t here in the draft, expect them to go best available WR, Josh Doctson would be a nice consolation prize, but here I have Treadwell falling to them.

23) Minnesota Vikings – Josh Doctson – WR – TCU – Another team in desperate need of a number two wide receiver, and Doctson just might be the guy best suited to have the best rookie year. He can win one-on-one matchups, even making Trevone Boykin look like a good passer at times in college. Stefon Diggs was an absolute steal of a find last year, but Jarius Wright is slated to be their number two receiver right now, and that is no way to help Teddy Bridgewater and the Vikings open up a new building.

24) Cincinnati Bengals – Will Fuller – WR – Notre Dame – Say hello to your Wide Receiver run.  The Bengals would probably be disappointed if Fuller was the best receiver left when it is their turn to pick and would work the phones to see if anyone wants to come up for a QB so they can move back and get Fuller later, but there are no trades in this mock draft. Fuller is one of the fastest receivers in the draft and the number two and three receivers are guys who couldn’t succeed with Tom Brady as their QB (Brandon LaFell and Brandon Tate). See everything I said about the need opposite Hopkins and Diggs in the previous two picks, and just substitute A.J. Green’s name.

25) Pittsburgh Steelers – Karl Joseph – S – West Virginia – The biggest hitter from the secondary, if not in the draft all together, is Karl Joseph, and doesn’t that just fit the Steelers perfectly? They could really use help at corner and safety, and taking a guy like Vernon Hargreaves or Eli Apple could easily be the decision, but it is hart to pass up a guy like Joseph to a team like the Steelers.

26) Seattle Seahawks – Germain Ifedi – OT – Texas A&M – When it comes to guys that just fit a team’s persona, Robert Nkemdiche is a really tempting pick here, but in the end need comes before juiciness. Much like the Colts, the Seahawks have had trouble protecting their star QB, and they don’t have a stud at any spot on the line. Luckily Ifedi can play multiple positions, and is probably best suited for right tackle or guard, spots that need upgrading.

27) Green Bay Packers – A’Shawn Robinson – DT – With B.J. Raji “retired”, the Packers need someone new to show Aaron Rogers what he’s got along the offensive line (insert annoying “show me what you got Raji” jingle here). Robinson has the potential to go in the top 15, and this is a real need for the Packers all the way at 27, so a steal of a pick for the Pack.

28) Kansas City Chiefs – Eli Apple – CB – Ohio State – I have the corners really falling in this draft, as there are several who would probably see Apple, Hargreaves, and even Mackensie Alexander already gone here, but I am not most people. Marcus Peters had a fantastic year for the Chiefs last year, adding Apple to the other side would give them a dynamic duo of very young and talented corners that will make Justin Houston and Tamba Hali blitzing off the edge even better, if that is even possible. Paxton Lynch is also a guy I could see them going with as the future replacement to Alex Smith, but the corners falling is too tempting to pass up.

29) Arizona Cardinals – Vernon Hargreaves – CB – Florida – I was really tempted put Noah Spence here to team with Calais Campbell and Chandler Jones giving the Cards a truly scary pass rush, but adding Hargreaves to the secondary can be equally as scary. I have seen Hargreaves ranked in some outlets top ten players in the draft, so adding him opposite Patrick Peterson and giving the Honey Badger even more freedom to do what he does is a scary thought for teams facing an already excellent defense.

30) Carolina Panthers – Artie Burns – CB – Miami – The Panthers were likely going to go corner even before they let Josh Norman go, now they pretty much have to. They might be a candidate to move up to ensure they get the one they want, but have a lot of needs given they were just in the Super Bowl. Burns is a recent riser and a solid corner, but he isn’t a lock down guy. Luckily the Panthers are not a team that plays a ton of one-on-one coverage, so the other corner and safety they draft with their next two picks will certainly help.

31) Denver Broncos – Robert Nkemdiche – DT – Ole Miss – I have been tempted to put Cody Whitehair here to solidify their interior offensive line, and there is an obvious need at QB, but Nkemdiche is the guy for me. The Broncos have an excellent defense, especially on the ends, but they don’t have the guy to hold down the middle of the line, and if there is a team that has the flexibility to take a shot on a guy on that side of the ball it is the Broncos. Nkemdiche is one of the most athletic guys in the entire draft and represents a potential steal for the Broncos.

I am never satisfied with just doing a single round of a mock draft, but I also don’t want to bog this down with round after round of me just projecting guys, so I decided I will highlight some interesting picks I see, starting with the quarterbacks.

Paxton Lynch – QB – Memphis – Cleveland Brown – 32^nd overall, 1^st pick of the second round.

Christian Hackenberg – QB – Penn State – Chicago Bears – 41^st overall, 10^th pick of the second round.

Connor Cook – QB – Michigan State – Kansas City Chiefs – 59^th overall, 28^th pick of the second round.

Dak Prescott – QB – Mississippi State – Denver Broncos – 63^rd overall, 32^nd pick of the second round.

Brandon Allen – QB – Arkansas – Dallas Cowboys – 67^th overall, 4^th pick of the third round.

Cardale Jones – QB – Ohio State – San Francisco 49ers – 68^th overall, 5^th pick of the third round.

Kevin Hogan – QB – Stanford – Buffalo Bills – 117^th overall, 19^th pick of the fourth round.

Jacoby Brissett – QB – NC State – New York Jets – 118^th overall, 20^th pick of the fourth round.

Brandon Doughty – QB – Western Kentucky – Arizona Cardinals, 128^th overall, 30^th pick of the fourth round.

Vernon Adams – QB – Oregon – Seattle Seahawks – 171^st overall, 34^th pick of the fifth round.

Other position guys I liked where they fell (or at least found interesting in my projections):

Noah Spence – DE – Eastern Kentucky – Tennessee Titans – 33^rd overall, 2^nd pick of the second round.

Derrick Henry – RB – Alabama – Dallas Cowboys – 34^th overall, 3^rd pick of the second round.

Ryan Kelly – C – Alabama – Jacksonville Jaguars – 38^th overall, 7^th pick of the second round.

Emmanuel Ogbah – DE – Oklahoma State – 47^th overall, 16^th pick of the second round.

Su’a Cravens – OLB – USC – Atlanta Falcons – 50^th overall, 19^th pick of the second round.

Nick Martin – C – Notre Dame – Washington Redskins – 53^rd overall, 20^th pick of the second round.

Javon Hargrave – DT – South Carolina State – Cincinnati Bengals – 55^th overall, 24^th pick of the second round.

Jaylon Smith – OLB – Notre Dame – New England Patriots – 60^th overall, 29^th pick of the second round.

Kenneth Dixon – RB – Louisiana Tech – New England Patriots – 61^st overall, 30^th pick of the second round.

Braxton Miller – WR – Ohio State – Philadelphia Eagles – 79^th overall, 16^th pick of the third round.

Robert Aguayo – PK – Florida State – Buffalo Bills – 80^th overall, 17^th pick of the third round.

Scooby Wright – MLB – Arizona – Green Bay Packers – 163^rd overall, 26^th pick of the sixth round.

 

-Shaun Kernahan