1)      Kansas City Chiefs – Luke Joeckel – OT – Texas A&M – It is clear the Chiefs are going for a left tackle given their offseason moves.  Eric Fisher has made a case to be taken first, but Joeckel has long been the best player in this draft.  He is good in both pass and run blocking, and will be able to start from week 1.

2)      Jacksonville Jaguars – Ezekiel Ansah – DE – BYU – Fun stat, last season J.J. Watt had 20.5 sacks, the Jaguars had 20.  Needless to say a pass rusher is a major need.  Ansah is a cool story.  Born and raised in Ghana, enrolled at BYU in 2008, ran track in 2009, first played football in 2010, and is now a freak athlete with raw skills that can really make an impact on a team that is still a few years away.

3)      Oakland Raiders – Sharif Floyd – DT – Florida – I originally liked Star Lotulelei for the Raiders, but the heart issue that came up at the combine will cause him to fall, which leaves Sharif as the best defensive tackle.  He is not a pass rusher, but is certainly a run stuffer.

4)      Philadelphia Eagles – Eric Fisher – OT – Central Michigan – A lot of people have Geno Smith going here, and while I think he would be a good fit for the Eagles, I don’t see any QB being worthy of a pick in the top 20-25.  The Eagles pass protection has been terrible the past couple years, and with Chip Kelly coming in and expected to run a read option offense, the Eagles desperately need someone that can protect the quarterback.

5)      Detroit Lions – Dee Miliner – CB – Alabama – Ideally the Lions would like to see Fisher or Ansah fall to them, but Miliner will definitely help an ugly secondary.  His speed is a little less than ideal, but he is big and physical, and may be able to make up for lack of speed by using his body to slow opponents receivers.

6)      Cleveland Browns – Chance Warmack – G – Alabama – The Crimson Tide offensive line draft prosects have become a trendy list of bust candidates, but I love Warmack.  Warmack has the skills of a tackle, but because he is just 6-2, he will be stuck in the interior.  He can overpower defensive tackles, and gets to the second level as good as anyone.  I look forward to seeing him as the pulling lead blocker ahead of Trent Richardson for years to come.

7)      Arizona Cardinals – Dion Jordan – OLB – Oregon – He is crazy athletic, ran a 4.54 40, and is 6-6 250+.  He will be a huge threat off the edge and the only reason he slips to 7 is concerns over his shoulder.  He will likely become the next big time pass rushing linebacker.

8)      Buffalo Bills – Barkevious Mingo – DE/OLB – LSU – I will start by saying I will not predict any trades in my mock draft, but I am certain the Bills will come out of this draft with Ryan Nassib at QB.  That being said, another huge need for the Bills is a pass rusher.  They took a flyer on Shawne Merriman regaining his form a couple years ago, but haven’t really found an answer as an outside rusher, I believe Mingo is the answer.

9)      New York Jets – Lane Johnson – OT – Oklahoma – The Jets already have a franchise left tackle, but desperately need a man on the end of the right side of the line.  Johnson might be well fit as LT on another team, but having two left tackle caliber guys on the offensive line is something no team would complain about.

10)   Tennessee Titans – Jonathan Cooper – G – North Carolina – I am still a believer in Locker and I think Chris Johnson still has something left.  Both guys would benefit from an athletic offensive guard, and that is just what Cooper would provide.  He may be a liability against powerful defensive tackles, but that often comes due to a high pad level.  If anyone can help coach up an offensive lineman, it is Titans head man Mike Munchak.

11)   San Diego Chargers – Star Lotulelei – DT – Utah – Arguably the best talent in the draft, a heart concern at the combine has cause Lotulelei to slip.  The Chargers would be doing back flips to get Star here.  Joining Kendall Reyes and Corey Liuget would make the San Diego interior defensive line as good as any in football, and all would be age 23, meaning great for years to come.

12)   Miami Dolphins – D.J. Fluker – OT – Alabama – The Dolphins need to replace the departed Jake Long at left tackle.  Fluker might have the most raw skills of any tackle in the draft, but the emphasis is on RAW.  His athleticism is a bit in question, but his power is incredible.  He will compete with Jonathan Martin for the left tackle job, and whoever loses the battle, will do just fine on the right side.

13)   New York Jets – Kenny Vaccaro – S – Texas – Even after trading Revis, the Jets have a decent set of corners, and  a quality safety will only improve the two guys on the corner.  Vaccaro makes the big hit and big plays, which is something the Jets could use.  Obviously the glaring need is at QB, but a ball hawking QB on D isn’t too bad.

14)   Carolina Panthers – Sheldon Richardson – DT – Missouri – A classic 3 technique defensive tackle that can get into the backfield is something the Panthers desperately need and Richardson can provide.  With a guy that can be disruptive up front, just imagine how good last year’s defensive rookie of the year Luke Kuechly could be.

15)   New Orleans Saints – Jarvis Jones – OLB – Georgia – Last year the Saints were the worst defense in NFL history, so they simply need to choose the best available defensive player, and that is Jones.  Jones can get after the QB and is a great first step in what will likely be a very defensive focused draft for the Saints.

16)   St. Louis Rams – Tavon Austin – WR – West Virginia – Quick, name a Rams wide receiver…yeah, I am not sure I can either (insert Torsten listing them off while cursing each of them).  Austin is not only a talented receiver, but he is a bonafide playmaker, aka exactly what the Rams offense needs.

17)   Pittsburgh Steelers – Tyler Eifert – TE – Notre Dame – The Steelers lost Mike Wallace, but kept their other two star receivers.  Eifert is a guy that can stretch the field from the tight end position, which should help keep one-on-one coverage for the outside receivers.  In a defensive oriented division, a big, athletic TE can be a real difference maker.

18)   Dallas Cowboys – Matt Elam – S – Florida – Ideally one of the previously mentioned offensive linemen or Kenny Vaccaro would fall for the Cowboys, but should that not happen, the Cowboys need upgrades at both safety spots, so they can go strong safety in Elam.  Elam is undersized but is a quality player.  He will be productive and be a solid safety, something the Cowboys haven’t had for some time.

19)   New York Giants – Alec Ogletree – LB – Georgia – Not sure he fits in with Tom Coughlin, but he is the most talented guy at a position of need for the Giants.  He is excellent in pass coverage, which is a plus in a league that is being dominated by tight ends.  A little uncertain if he would be an inside or outside backer, but he can be productive in either spot.

20)   Chicago Bears – Manti Te’o – ILB – Notre Dame – With Urlacher no longer a Bear, they will be looking for the next in the long line of middle backers in Bears history.  There were obviously many questions raised starting from the national championship game all the way through the pro day for Te’o, but he is the type of guy that should be able to make the transition to the NFL and be successful.

21)   Cincinnati Bengals – Eddie Lacy – RB – Alabama – I don’t like taking running backs in the first round, but after the law firm looked more like a public defender than a high powered law service, the Bengals could really use help in the backfield.  Lacy is by far the best running back in the draft, and he won’t get past the Packers, so this is the time for Cincy to get an impact back.

22)   St. Louis Rams – John Cyprien – S – Florida International – A clear need for the Rams is at safety.  That being said, I wouldn’t be surprised to see them take Kyle Long here and target Shamarko Thomas in the second round, but assuming they attack biggest need here, Cyprien is a great pick for the Rams.

23)   Minnesota Vikings – Cordarrelle Patterson – WR – Tennessee – Patterson was a little unproven on the field, but was a workout monster at the combine.  The Vikings could use an entire new receiving corp, so expect them to attack this high upside receiver.

24)   Indianapolis Colts – Kyle Long – T/G – Oregon – There is some debate as to whether or not Long can play tackle.  He certainly has the size, 6-6 315 lbs., but his footwork will decide where he plays on the next level.  Regardless, the Colts must build a line to keep franchise QB Andrew Luck upright and healthy, and Long can definitely help there.

25)   Minnesota Vikings – Kevin Minter – ILB – LSU – Based on roster composition, I wouldn’t blame the Vikings if they drafted a second receiver here, but that never has and never will happen.  Minter can be an anchor in the middle of that defense for years to come.  He is slightly undersized and may be physically outmatched at times, but he has very high football IQ, which will allow him to be the QB of that defense. 

26)   Green Bay Packers – Menelik Watson – OT – Florida State – I don’t see him starting right off the bat.  He is very raw and needs to be coached up, but he is as talented an offensive lineman as there is in this draft.  He will be a sixth lineman this year, maybe becoming the right tackle by seasons end, but he could easily be a Pro Bowl left tackle in a couple years…that is, assuming there is still such a thing as a Pro Bowl in a couple years.

27)   Houston Texans – DeAndre Hopkins – WR – Clemson – He isn’t a burner. He isn’t a physical beast.  He isn’t the best athlete, he doesn’t run the most crisp routes, he won’t out jump many people, he won’t break away from many defenders.  He will produce though.  He has been underwhelming in terms of perceived talent for all three years at Clemson, but one thing can’t be argued with, he gets the job done, which is exactly what the Texans need opposite Andre Johnson.

28)   Denver Broncos – Bjoern Werner – DE – Florida State – Werner can create a pass rushing threat opposite Von Miller.  Werner gets off the ball quick and has good power on his rush.  He could create a Freeney-Mathis like pair that helped keep the Colts dominant for a decade.

29)   New England Patriots – Desmond Trufant – CB – Washington – The Patriots draft defensive backs every year, and tend to miss on them every year.  Trufant I don’t believe would be a miss.  He won’t ever be a top tier shutdown guy, but we will be a solid #1 corner. 

30)   Atlanta Falcons – Zach Ertz – TE – Stanford – Tony Gonzalez is coming back for one more season, but Ertz can be the heir apparent.  He is a very talented receiving tight end and can add yet another threat on an incredibly potent offense.  The Falcons can take Ertz, then focus the rest of the draft on improving defensively, and will be one of the scarier teams to face in the NFL.

31)   San Francisco 49ers – Margus Hunt – DE – SMU – YouTube his Sheraton Hawaii Bowl highlights.  Then realize this guy is Estonia born and raised, moved to Dallas to attend SMU and participate on their track team, only to have the track team dropped.  The former track coach introduced him to football head coach June Jones who gave Hunt a scholarship based on his athleticism.  What athleticism you ask?  How about 6-8, 277 lbs., runs a 4.6 40, benched 225 lbs. 38 times, registered a 34.5 inch vertical at the combine.  Oh, and his name is Margus Hunt, aka the greatest name for a defensive lineman ever.  In case you couldn’t tell, this is my favorite guy in the draft, and putting him on the 49ers line is just unfair.

32)   Baltimore Ravens – Robert Woods – WR – USC – The Ravens need a guy to fill the Anquan Boldin role and be a threat opposite Torrey Smith.  Woods is it.  He is a great athlete with great hands, and runs above average routes.  If the Trojans would have lived up to their pre-season #1 ranking, Woods and fellow Trojan Matt Barkley could easily have been 1-2 in this year’s draft.

Other guys I really like in this draft on day 2 and 3:

Ryan Nassib – QB – Syracuse – I think I have been clear I have him ending up with the Bills.  What I may not have expressed is I believe he ends up being the best QB to come out of this draft.  He is really underrated in all phases of the game.

Johnathan Franklin – RB – UCLA – This guy will be the best RB to come out of this draft.  He was the main reason UCLA has such a successful season.  His size might not be ideal, but his skills are.

Keenan Allen – WR – Cal – There are concerns as a red flag for marijuana was raised at the combine that is causing his stock to fall.  If he stays out of trouble, whoever drafts him will be getting a steal.

Barrett Jones – OL – Alabama – He can play 5 offensive line positions.  Even if he never becomes a regular starter for a NFL team, he will be incredibly valuable.

Shamarko Thomas – S – Syracuse – Watching this guy play at Syracuse was just plain fun.  He gets beat from time to time, but when that doesn’t happen, he is destroying receivers that dared go over the middle.  He simply punishes people.

Brad Wing – P – LSU – Yeah, I am highlighting a punter, so what?  This dude is good.  The one consistent “negative” I see in his scouting reports…he outkicks his coverage…aka he kicks the ball too far.  Oh, and he is from Australia, and grew up playing Australian rules football, the same story as my favorite punter of all time, Darren Bennett.

Brittney Griner, the finest women’s college basketball player of all time, has come out as gay. And not surprisingly, nobody really gives a sh*t. Griner is affable, a “cool kid” by all accounts, and… wait for it… a woman.

ESPN’s LZ Granderson editorialized today that there is no perfect time for a gay male player of one of the four major sports to come out, just the perfect guy. Citing such heroes as Rosa Parks, Jackie Robinson, Elizabeth Cady Stanton & Lucretia Mott, and others, he makes a good point.

However, and we’ve written quite a bit about this issue here at The Stain in recent months, there’s an elephant in the room. Look at societal history in the United States, hell, the World, and you should be able to plainly see that man’s booksmarts have always far exceeded man’s streetsmarts. To paraphrase a couple of old jokes, we put a man on the moon in the 60s but it wasn’t until the 70s that we realized it would be a good idea to put wheels on luggage. The space program spent supposedly spent a huge sum of money developing a pen that would work in zero gravity. In fairness, the Russians got that one right. They brought a pencil… at the cost of roughly a nickel.

Where is the common sense? Look at all of humanity’s incredible accomplishments. Jonas Salk discovered a vaccine for polio in 1955. In 1903, the Wright brothers successfully accomplished powered flight. There are too many to mention. The steam engine, electricity, the telephone… I mean, think about it. With about a dozen pokes onto a keypad, you can talk to anyone in the world who also has a telephone. Pretty amazing, isn’t it?

Now, look at this. In 1963,  President John F. Kennedy called for a bill to give all Americans equal access to public facilities. Really? It took until 1963? If you were born on this day in 1963, you would be 50 today. What this means is that an enormous part of the population, numbering in the billions, were actually alive during a time when it was deemed commonplace for certain human beings to not be allowed to be in the same public establishments because they were of a different race. If the world began in 1910, you might think that it took humanity half a century to get it right. No biggy. I mean, how often do we get it right the first time, anyway.

In 1776, the American Colonies adopted the Declaration of Independence. Already at war with Britain over oppression in the form of unfair taxation among other things, it was nearly a century later that slavery was finally abolished.

History is full of incongruency between accomplishment and shockingly obtuse ideals. Knowing this, can it really be much of a surprise that it’s considered newsworthy should a man playing one of the “Big Four” sports come out as gay while still active in his career?

Granderson theorizes that for a couple of weeks, it would be kind of a big deal. Some would call the first openly gay male, for the sake of argument let’s say football player, a hero. Some by a more unsavory expletive. And then it would go away.

He’s probably right.

He also compares the ensuing media frenzy to be much like the circus that followed Tim Tebow around all of last NFL season. I think he’s probably wrong. Because people are still talking about Tebow, and it’s been way more than a couple of weeks.

What we are lacking as a society in terms of how we view sports is the ability to see the big picture.

It comes in the wake of an awful tragedy at the Boston Marathon, but what happened at last night’s Boston Bruin’s game gave me hope that we will one day get it. In summary, joined by the Color Guard from the Boston Fire Department, about 20,000 fans in attendance joined singer Rene Rancourt in belting out the Star Spangled Banner. In a moment of sheer brilliance, whether choreographed or otherwise, Rancourt let the fans take the lead for nearly the whole thing. If you’re in the mood to have your bones chilled (in a good way), grab your Kleenex and click here.

A gay male athlete in one of the big four sports comes out. How big of a deal is it really?

Just a quick note of tribute from The Stain, where we appreciate excellence in sports broadcasting above most other things.

Pat Summerall died today of cardiac arrest at the age of 82.

Truly a master of his craft, he will be missed by sports fans across the nation.

As a writer, it’s always tough to eloquently describe anything briefly. As a broadcaster, it’s even more difficult.

And he did it beautifully.

Today is a difficult day, but also a day where America can stand up and prove what we are all made of.  Earlier today I was writing about the good and bad in a week of sports, while writing and posting, the good and bad of humanity was being tested.  Across baseball, we are celebrating Jackie Robinson Day, celebrating a man who endured unimaginable hatred.  A man that is arguably the greatest second baseman in baseball history, but his humanitarian efforts dwarf his baseball career.  Jackie passed at just 53 years of age, but did more in his life than most normal people could accomplish in 500 years on this planet.  Today is also Patriots’ Day in Massachusetts and Maine.  A day where New Englanders, and people from all over the world flock to Boston, enjoy early day baseball at historic Fenway Park, and then move to the finish line of the Boston Marathon, where people test their own will in running 26.2 miles in a race named after a the story of man whom in ancient Greece fell over dead after running that distance from the battle of Marathon to Athens to proclaim “we won”, a feeling that must be felt by any runner upon completion of a marathon.  Patriots’ Day is in honor of The Battles of Lexington and Concord, the first in the American Revolutionary War, a day where 13 colonies stood up for freedom of speech, freedom of religion, heck, freedom to be free.

The bombings in Boston today were horrifying, and my heart and thoughts go out to anyone whose friends or families were in anyway injured in that cowardly attack.  I was lucky.  I have several people in my life who were either in the area, or were supposed to be, but all escaped any physical harm.  All that being said, I reflect on this day, reflect on the festivities being celebrated today, and wonder what the people we celebrate today would do, and what they would say given all they stood for.  Regardless of who ends up to blame for the attacks in Boston today, be it international terrorists, domestic terrorists, or some other extremist group, we need to remember what today stands for. 

If it turns out to be a terrorist organization, domestic or international, attacking the American way, remember our founding fathers.  Remember the reason I am allowed to write this blog post, the reason you are allowed to go to the church of your choosing, the reason you are free is the American spirit terrorists are so desperately attacking. Should the attacks be some extremist group who may be racially, religiously, or some other prejudice, remember the spirit of Jackie Robinson, remember a man that did not fight back and lower himself to those actions, but a man who stayed the course, a man who didn’t let the naysayers cause him to live his life in fear, but instead lived his life and moved on, consequently changing the world.  When attacks like this occur, we need to remember the will of those before us, those who shaped the world we lived in, and push it forward, live the dream they dreamt for us, and not allow any cowardly actions prevent us from being strong, human, and most importantly, American.

The past 5 days or so have been what is great and what is bad in sports.  Here are just some of my thoughts and observations.

• The azaleas, the dogwoods, Amen Corner, the racists, the sexists, the green jacket, the protesters, great finishes, bigotry, drama.  Is there a sporting event that is more polarizing than the Masters?  It’s history and strangling control of the broadcast are things I would usually completely boycott, but then come late third round I find myself glued to the TV watching a fantastic event.  Congrats to Adam Scott, but Augusta National is a place I will never support.

• Sweet, there is a basebrawl.  Wait, Carlos Quentin, you are a moron.  You are hit by a pitch ever 24 plate appearances in your career, that is 8 PA more common than the second most frequent active player.  It was a 3-2 count in a one run game, in an at-bat that included 3 breaking balls.  Just stupid, but still, a pretty sweet brawl.  Oh, wait, Grienke broke his collarbone and is out at least 8 weeks. 

• Kobe, the definition of polarizing.  Never enjoy seeing someone get injured, especially a ruptured Achilles, but I am not one to feel sorry for the guy.  Then he goes on Facebook to vent and makes himself completely human, vulnerable, and suddenly I am pulling for him to come back as good as ever, damn you Kobe!

• If you haven’t done so yet, make it a point to sit down and watch the Marlins Jose Fernandez pitch.  His story is fantastic.  Three failed attempts to escape Cuba, all ending in prison time, dove into shark infested waters to save his mother on one attempt.  Finally made it during high school, and now is in the big leagues.  As if that isn’t enough, he follows 96 MPH fastballs with a slider that will send you running to take a shower it is so incredibly filthy.  Trust me, make it a point to watching him pitch.

• Evan Gattis is another fantastic story.  Battled depression, anxiety, and alcoholism that prevented him from accepting a scholarship to Texas A&M, worked as a janitor, lift operator, and everything in between before going back to school, getting drafted by the Braves, and absolutely raking so far.

• Could there be more injuries in sports right now?  Already mentioned Kobe and Grienke, add the who’s who of third base injuries in baseball, Jose Reyes, Stanton and Morse both out for a bit.  It has been ugly.

• Speaking of ugly, one of my fantasy baseball teams has Gio Gonzalez, and Jarrod Parker on it.  Pretty good until you look at Sundays performances.   A combined 8 1/3 innings and 15 earned runs…yeah, it wasn’t a pretty Sunday.

And finally, I just want to express my disappointment in baseball.  Today is a great day.  Jackie Robinson day is always great, it is awesome to see everyone wearing the number 42.  But why are only 18 teams playing?  Neither New York team is playing.  On this day, especially with the movie 42 coming out this weekend, 30 of 30 teams need to be playing baseball.  That should be a rule for baseball.  No teams should have the day off on Jackie Robinson Day, all players should have the opportunity to go out there and honor the man that changed modern baseball for the better by breaking the color barrier. (Something Augusta National didn’t allow until 1990, and the first woman joined last year, just saying.)

 

1)      Baltimore Orioles –  For those who pointed to the run differential last season, they clearly missed the Orioles were second in baseball over the final two months.  They have a very good bullpen, good young players, I am looking forward to seeing what Schoop can do after a decent WBC, and a very deep roster.  Just like the A’s, they are a team that will get production out of every member of the 25 man roster.

2)      Toronto Blue Jays – Clearly the winners of the offseason.  They got a ton of talent, but that does not always lead to wins.  They will be a very good team, but there are questions about many of the guys they got.  Josh Johnson is always and injury risk, however I think he has a good year.  I worry about Jose Reyes on the turf.  Jose Bautista is up and down. Who knows when Melky Cabrera decides to make another fake website after testing positive and being suspended for a year?

3)      Tampa Bay Rays – Solid team, I look forward to seeing if/when Will Myers makes his debut and what he can do.  They are the Rays.  Good pitching, solid defense, versatile ballplayers, somehow end up with 85-90 wins.  Enough said.

4)      Boston Red Sox – I hated their offseason.  Victorino was terrible, Napoli’s hip scares me, where did the pitching support come from? Hanrahan? Really?  There is one good thing for the Red Sox…Bradley Jr. should be fun to watch.

5)      New York Yankees – They will be terrible!!!!  They lost all their home runs.  They have a better roster on the DL than on the field.  Sabathia is due for a regression.  No prospects to write home about.  The Yankees will lose 90+ games this year.

 

1)      Detroit Tigers – This is probably the easiest division winner to project this season.  The World Series runner ups have a dominating staff, stacked lineup, but questionable bullpen.  If they can find a dominant closer outside Phil Coke, they will be in great shape.  Coke is a dominant lefty and is best served to be a set up guy designed to take down a big lefty bat in a jam.  Victor Martinez is healthy which just adds another bat to the mix. 

2)      Kansas City Royals – Last season I posted a 2013 World Series preview where I had the Royals losing to the Nationals.  The Nats look like a team that can make a run to the Series, and while I won’t be truthfully predicting it, I would not at all be surprised to see the Royals get a Wild Card spot and who knows what can happen from there.   I loved the Jamie Shields (yes, it will always be Jaime to me) trade.  The Royals are really only deficient in proven arms, and he is certainly a proven one.

3)      Cleveland Indians – With Terry Francona at manager, the trades for Stubbs and Bauer, the signings of Giambi, Swisher, and Born will make the team better.  They have a good mix of young and experienced and solid leadership.  I see them also battling for a Wild Card spot and only improving through the season and into next year.

4)      Chicago White Sox – This is a team that is far from enjoyable to watch.  They have some good young arms, but that is about it.  Dunn is a liability with his average and Konerko is on his last leg.  Viciedo is their upside position player, and there isn’t much there.  They have a horrific farm system.  Their biggest problem is they didn’t suck last season, which put some expectations on the team, rather than free them to deal what commodities they have for youth.

5)       Minnesota Twins – They just may battle the Astros for first overall draft pick in the 2014 draft.  The team is terrible.  They dealt Span and Revere over the offseason and will be relying on young unproven guys like Mastroianni and Aaron Hicks.  Plouffe will bat in the middle of the lineup, but he looks like a guy that closes his eyes when he swings, he either crushes the ball, or misses big.  The positive thing for Twins fans is there are talented young guys both in their system and on their big league roster, so there is at least a little hope for the future in the Twin Cities.

Usually, I make at least some effort to keep my blatant homerism in check. No such promises today. The regular season is right around the corner and optimism is high across MLB… except for maybe Pittsburgh, where it seems the Pirates are destined to suck regardless of what they do. And then there’s the Cubs… okay, so maybe not ALL across MLB.  Without further ado.

1) Dodgers – This team is practically guaranteed to go 162-0… No? Ok fine. I had them finishing second in the West up until about three days ago when it dawned on me: The Guggenheim Group is pretty much convinced it can buy its way out of anything. That, and Tim Lincecum as a starter is done, and that’s going to severely dent LA’s closest competitor’s chances. Make no mistakes, this team has flaws and the floorboards creak a little bit, but on the surface they would appear to be less flawed than the other teams here.

2) Giants – They’re still a pretty good team, and just locked up superstar Buster Posey for the next 9 years. They can pitch, and they can field for the most part. But man, they have overachieved. Angel Pagan and Marco Scutaro are capable big league players, but the cloud 9 thing is going to have to evaporate at some point. They should still contend for a wild card but a division championship probably won’t happen. They don’t have the resources to match the Dodgers at the trade deadline.

3) D Backs – I probably could have lumped Colorado and San Diego in here too. I decided to give Arizona the nod because they have pitching from top to bottom. The line up has some big time holes, especially with Justin Upton’s departure. Chris Young’s exodus won’t hurt quite as much, but there was still some power and speed from him, and the Cody Ross/injured Adam Eaton combo is probably not going to make up for it. Kudos for locking up young stud Paul Goldschmidt though. That’s a good move for the franchise.

4) Padres – I nearly had them as a dark horse contender for a wildcard. And then I remembered, Yasmani Grandal was a bad boy. And then I also remembered, they’re relying on Jason Marquis to be the staff ace. Don’t get me wrong, they’re loaded with young talent. But talent doesn’t translate to wins, and wins are what get you to the postseason.

5) Rockies – Here’s your $66,000 question. Who is gonna get anyone out? Tulo and Cargo are two of the game’s finest talents, but they could each knock in 4 runs a game and it won’t matter if the staff gives up 20.

Random thought of the day: The more I think about WAR (Wins Above Replacement), the more I hate it. There are some very good saber metrics, and there are some that are just ludicrous. I hate it, I hate it, I hate it…

So I’m sitting here on St. Patrick’s day, sober for now, and it got me thinking. At nearly 35 years old, do I need an excuse to drink? After all, I am long past the legal threshold for purchasing booze. Essentially, I can get plowed any time I want, right? Not that it would be a liver-friendly approach to life, but that’s beside the point. Still, going on Facebook this morning, I saw literally a hundred posts about it being St. Patty’s day, and party this and drinking that… I doubt more than a handful of them have any Irish at all in them. It’s like the knuckleheads well into adulthood that still get excited when the clock hits 20 minutes after four o’ clock. “420, man! Yeah…”

I have this particular friend who wears the fact that are a hardcore stoner like it’s a war medal. This friend is only a couple of years younger than me, so essentially the same generation, a parent, and a spouse. Hey, if you have a lot on your plate in life and you need to blaze it in your garage just to cope a little, fine. I probably drink a little more than the Surgeon General would recommend (ok, more than a little) and a lot of it has to do with the stress of life. I could find a more constructive outlet, I suppose, but let’s face it, I’m too lazy and while we’re being honest, I like beer. I struggle to understand many things. Bravado about getting plastered or baked into a catatonic state is just one of them.

What does this have to do with the NL Central, you ask? Not a thing. I was just sitting here watching the Dodgers and Brewers play a preseason game and it reminded me I needed to get to this.

1) St. Louis Cardinals: They’ve been the top dog in this division for a while now. They hit incredibly well, pitch well enough, and are incredibly well managed by Mike Matheny. I don’t see anything going wrong enough for them this season to finish anywhere but first in the Central. The loss of Cris Carpenter and Rafael Furcal may be a hurdle that has to be cleared, but 95 wins are within reach. If they do have an achilles heel, it’s that Mitchell Boggs and Jason Motte are vulnerable at the back end of the bullpen. They both throw in the high 90s but neither fastball moves. Don’t get me wrong, they’re not terrible. Just not much better than average in my book. Trevor Rosenthal on the other hand…

2) Cincinnati Reds: There’s a lot of talent on this team too, but they’re managed by Dusty Baker… Wouldn’t that give you reason for concern? Votto, Phillips, Frazier, Bruce, and Choo make for a really potent offensive core. But two things on this team are like clockwork. Baker will mismanage the pitching staff, and start Ryan Hanigan over the superior Devin Mesoraco. Doesn’t matter how good the talent is, it has to be managed properly and I like Baker as a person, but the game has passed him by.

3) Pittsburgh Pirates: Will their historic streak of losing seasons finally come to an end? Possibly. They still won’t make the playoffs though. There just isn’t enough there. There are some great reasons to be optimistic, mainly the continued development of Andrew McCutcheon, Starling Marte, the impending arrival of Jameson Taillon, and others. But there is just too much that has to go right. Allstar closer Joel Hanrahan is gone, replaced presumably by… Marc Melancon? Clint Barmes still going to be the shortstop? If this team is going to surpass two legitimately good teams, it can’t have so many questions.

4) Milwaukee Brewers: No, I’m not ranking them this low because they’re getting grilled by the Dodgers in a meaningless game. It just really appears they got thin. There’s not much behind Yovani Gallardo in the rotation. John Axford anchors a thin bullpen. Cory Hart is hurt to start the year, and Ryan Braun may very realistically end up finally getting caught doping, and not having a procedural SNAFU and Bud Selig’s convenient presence at the top of the MLB totem pole let it get swept under the rug. All teams have weak links, but it appears the Brew Crew has more than most.

5) Chicago Cubs: I don’t doubt that Theo Epstein will eventually bring in the right personnel to right the ship here. But this stuff takes time. More time, in fact, than it will take to lock up Starlin Castro through his arbitration eligibility and perhaps the first couple years of free agency. He’d fetch an absolute king’s ransom in return from a shortstop needy team. Matt Garza, if that arm is sound, is another valuable piece. Look for Theo to mail this season in and load up on blue chippers. Think I’m kidding? Nate Schierholtz may lead this team in RBIs this season. Probably not… but he might.

Anyway, in conclusion, I managed to finish this entire article without even getting into a single beer. Don’t get me wrong, I will probably have one (or more) today. It is, after all, St. Patty’s day.

These are some of my favorite columns to write, previewing how a MLB division will turn out after 162 games. Invariably, you will have teams like Baltimore and Oakland who overachieve, and others like the Angels who underachieve, and it will make me look inept seven months later. But still, I love it. Without further ado.

1) Atlanta Braves: That pitching… whoa that pitching. No staff scares me as much as this one does. They now figure to have Kris Medlen healthy for a whole year, and he could win the Cy Young. Their bullpen is nearly incomparable, thanks largely to the nearly unhittable Craig Kimbrel. And then they went out and got the Upton brothers. Do I need to say more? 100 wins is very well within reach for them.

2) Washington Nationals: A lot depends on the health of two key guys here; Steven Strasburg and Ryan Zimmermann. They figure to take the kid gloves off their ace this year, so they’ll have him for more than 140 innings, assuming his elbow withstands the rigors of his high impact delivery. Zimmermann is elite but has somewhat of a history with injuries. If both guys stay healthy, they will probably contend with Atlanta for the division crown until ultimately fading and settling for a wild card. If one or both get hurt, the sledding gets tougher.

3) Philadelphia Phillies: There is some reason for optimism here. Lots of big names. Hamels, Lee, Halladay, Howard, Utley, Rollins. Now, remove Hamels, and what do you have? A bunch of guys who are either getting older or can’t stay fit. Now, if Charlie Manuel can somehow figure out a way to give his guys enough rest, be a bit careful with Halladay and Lee’s innings, and get good work from his pen, they might be in the wild card hunt. Ultimately though, I don’t think it will happen. Guys will get hurt, Carlos Ruiz will regress a bit from his Johnny Bench performance of 2012, and Papelbon will struggle at the back end of the pen.

4) New York Mets: The level falls off dramatically. The Mets won’t win 70 games, but there are a few good things happening there. Matt Harvey is a real stud, and hopefully Johan Santana will be healthy enough to lead a rotation that also includes the capable Jonathon Niese and free agent signee, Shawn Marcum. David Wright is excellent we all know, but that’s where we get iffy. I think if they get Jordany Valdespin more at bats, he’ll prove to be a good player. And that shouldn’t be hard, finding him at bats I mean, since the only position he can’t play is pitcher. But there’s just not enough big league talent here.

5) Miami Marlins: Here’s the good: Giovanni Stanton. Logan Morrison’s Twitter rants. Here’s the bad: Everything else, with apologies to Ricky Nolasco, and one of the all time good guys in the game, Juan Pierre. And you know what? Good. Until Jeffery Loria is no longer in charge, I wouldn’t be the least bit sad if the Marlins never won another game. He’s a con artist and a <censored>. What!? I can’t say,”<censored>?” Aw, come on, that’s some <censored> bull <censored>!!! Anyway, one last thing. I’m offering odds that Stanton gets traded by the deadline, along Morrison, and the truly start from scratch.

I predict a couple of MLB awards from this division too. For one, the aforementioned Medlen will win 20, I think, and win the Cy Young. And I think Justin Upton wins comeback player of the year… from a year that while beneath his standards, was not awful.

Did I miss anything? No? Good. I still can’t believe I can’t say, “<censored>.”