Category: football

NFL Playoff Weekend Preview: NFC

Well, if they were giving out belt buckles for worst playoff predictions last weekend, our pants would certainly have been securely fastened to our waists. This weekend’s matchups will hopefully make us look less like blithering fools, and more like we actually know what we’re talking about with this stuff. 

New Orleans +8 at Seattle (46.5):  Well, what do we know? Seattle is brutal at home. Last visit the Saints made up there didn’t go well for them at all. And whatever this polar vortex thing is, it’s making places cold. Very cold. Does Drew Brees like the cold? Not really. Seattle can be run on, but unfortunately, the Saints don’t really have a strong running game. Last week, I bagged on the Saints D a little bit, but they performed better than I thought against Philadelphia’s explosive offense. And Seattle, while good, is not Philly on offense. That 46.5 over/under looks really high for me. I’m seeing a defensive and elemental battle here. Nobody (besides Arizona) beats Seattle at home, I’m taking the ‘Hawks 17-10. 

San Francisco -1 at Carolina (42): I hate clichés like “point are going to be at a premium,” and nonsense like that. Points are always at a freaking premium. Without them, you can’t win. It’s going to be a real “field position battle.” Really? F*** you! Every game is a field position battle. If it wasn’t, teams would go for every single fourth down. But anyway, they rankle me less for this game than others. I’d bet my life’s savings (not very much) on the under (and probably lose, kowing my luck). Coaches, except in game-winning situations, view field goals largely as consolation prizes. Well, we didn’t get in the end zone, send the pseudo football player out there to boot one through the big yellow thing. But when you look at this game, “field goal range” is probably going to be a very early consideration. It’s a self-fulfilling prophecy: when you go against superior defenses (which both teams have), you tend to adopt a conservative game plan, thereby putting a ceiling on how effective you can be on offense, making it easier for the defense to stop you. But at least you’re not committing turnovers! Anyway, both teams use the read option, so both teams can stop it. I really have no idea. I’m going to go with Carolina by a score of 16-6, but not because they’re the home team. Because they have former 49er Ted Ginn returning punts, and he might break one off.   

There you have it. Am I right? You can bet on it! Just know, if you do, you might lose.

NFL Wildcard Weekend – AFC Preview

So, without further ado, the AFC predictions sure to go wrong:

Kansas City (+2.5) @ Indianapolis, 47: The Indianapolis Colts have been a truly blessed franchise going from Peyton Manning straight into Andrew Luck, but they are not yet a complete team.  Even with the franchise quarterback, the Colts needed a corporate partner to buy up the final 1,200 tickets, granted for a good cause, in order to avoid a blackout.  Trent Richardson should have a bounce back season in 2014, but it won’t start Saturday against the Chiefs.  The Kansas City defense is really good, despite struggling down the stretch, and the Colts just don’t have enough offense.  T.Y. Hilton is really the only threat Andrew Luck has ever since Reggie Wayne went down with a knee injury.  The Chiefs offense can ride check down king, Alex Smith, to a win in the playoffs, but they are not a Super Bowl contender.  Jamaal Charles is an easy MVP in almost any season except this year, and he will have a great game on Saturday.  Look for Charles to put up close to 200 yards of total offense in a game where the final score is much closer than the feel of the game, 20-17.

San Diego (+7), @ Cincinnati, 47: The Chargers might have been the most dangerous team of the final four AFC teams that had a chance at the playoffs, but then again they almost lost a must win game against a Chiefs team that was almost entirely backups.  The Bengals have an excellent 1-2 punch in the backfield with Benjarvis Green-Ellis and Giovani Bernard, and the second best receiver in football, A.J. Green.  Their biggest issue is quarterback Andy Dalton.  Dalton is not a championship level quarterback, he is overrated because of Green’s incredible ability to catch bad balls and defenses ability to keep games close.  Ryan Matthews is finally looking like the first round running back Chargers fans had been hoping for since the day he was drafted, and Keenan Allen has emerged as a star at receiver.  This will again be a close game, with San Diego covering the spread, but in the end, I see the Bengals escaping with a victory, 27-24.

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NFL Wildcard Weekend – NFC Preview

Want to make some money on this upcoming weekend’s wildcard games? Then whatever you do, don’t take the advice in this column. Just kidding. There’s at least a 50/50 chance we’ll be right.

The NFC has some entertaining match ups on tap. Superbowl contender San Francisco travels to Green Bay to take on the NFC North-“winning” Packers…and I only put the quotes around winning because the Pack managed to do so despite only eight wins. Nonetheless, few home field advantages are as powerful as Lambeau’s. And wild card New Orleans packs their bags for the flight to Philly to take on the East-winning Eagles. There are a couple of intersting sub-plots, mainly that the two home teams are the patently inferior ones in these match-ups, but they do play the games for a reason. Let’s take a look at the games.

New Orleans (+2.5) @ Philadelphia, 54: At first blush, the over-under looks a bit daunting, until you realize that both teams have players the other just can’t account for. The Eagles, not exactly a defensive bastion to begin with, have to figure out a way to slow down Drew Brees, Jimmy Graham and company, and simply do not have the man power to do it. Meanwhile, much has been said about New Orleans’ vastly improved defense, but let’s get real. They were torched a few weeks back by the Kellen Clemens-led St. Louis Rams, and I don’t remember them borrowing rushing champ, LeSean McCoy for that game. This game might be approaching 54 points by half time. New Orleans is actually getting 2.5 points, and it makes sense a little bit because they are on the road, the weather in Philly will probably suck, and Brees and Company are used to their cozy dome. Here’s another subplot for you, I’ve long said no team as ever won the Superbowl with a crappy kicker. Well, actually I said sh***y kicker, but we don’t use potty language when our moms are around. Regardless, there’s a good reason Shayne Graham has been unemployed for the last couple of seasons, and it would be unfair to judge Alex Henery before he’s had a chance to compile a body of work, but wouldn’t it make you feel better if your team had a solid kicker late in the fourth quarter of a close game, just in case it came down to it? I’m no less perplexed now by New Orleans’ decision to cut bait on Garrett Hartley after he missed an ultimately meaningless 27 yarder against St. Louis than I was when it happened. Sure, Hartley had struggled a bit this season, but this is the same guy that should have been a Superbowl MVP after going 4/4 including three from 43 yards or longer just a few years ago. Ultimately, it’s academic in this game. Neither team is going to the big game. I just felt like thinking out loud. My prediction, The Saints take it 45-34.

San Francisco (-3) @ Green Bay, 48: These two have put on some entertaining battles the last two seasons, that’s for sure. I don’t see this one being as much of a shootout though. Colin Kaepernick has not been as explosive as last season. Either that, or teams have done a better job of defending the read option this year. The latter is actually what the numbers indicate, but I think it runs deeper. Last year, the Niners had this guy named Delanie Walker, an all-purpose tight end/H-back. Walker, since departed to the Titans where played well until injuries curtailed his season, performed a ton of roles for San Francisco last year, and Vance MacDonald has not been a suitable replacement. Meanwhile, Green Bay has franchise quarterback Aaron Rodgers back, and will be at close to full strength offensively. And this year, he has a running game to help him, with Offensive ROY favorite, Eddie Lacy. I think because of that, as well as a 49er defense good at taking the ball away, time of possession and field position are going to be huge focuses, and you won’t see a shootout. I think the home team takes this one by a nose. Green Bay over the 49ers, 23-17.

Stay tuned for Shaun’s take on this weekend’s AFC match ups. I can’t wait to read what he has to say about the Kansas City Indianapolis game.