Oakland Athletics 2013-14 Off-Season Preview

Strengths: The obvious one is Billy Beane. He continues to make the most of perpetually tight purse strings by bringing in productive players with team-friendly contracts. While I have always believed that Moneyball is a way overblown and overhyped concept, you can’t argue that building a line up with guys who get on pace, followed by guys that hit the ball out of the park, followed by guys who get on base, is a formula that works. You can’t tell me it took 150 years of professional baseball for that to be discovered…can you? The other big strength, accentuated by the recent acquisition of the underappreciated Luke Gregerson, is the bullpen. 

Weaknesses: Budget. While they’ve opened up the coffers a little bit to bring in Scott Kazmir and Jim Johnson (who may get upwards of 10 million in arbitration), they’re still hamstrung by finances and a lousy home ballpark. I’m not an accountant, but wouldn’t this team be scary if they had the resources to pursue a trade for a front-line starter like David Price and/or sign a middle-of-the-order bat like Robbie Cano while he was available?

Off-Season Needs: They’re pretty deep, and don’t really have any huge needs to fill in order to be competitive again in the AL West this year. That said, if they do want to be the out and out favorite to win the division, hitting pay dirt again with either a reclamation project, or a young player that vastly outperforms his projection would help. The last few years, the A’s have gotten more than they bargained or hoped for from Josh Donaldson, Josh Reddick, Bartolo Colon, and Coco Crisp. Is Craig Gentry the next guy to turn from borderline fourth outfielder with another team to semi-stud with Oakland? 

2014 Outlook: Quite strong, actually. They might very well be better than 50/50 to win the AL West, and if they don’t, they probably have the inside track on a wild card. Until they get some more money, they’ll never win a championship, but not everyone gets to. This ain’t the 80s anymore.

Texas Rangers 2013/14 Off-Season Preview

Strengths:  The Infield.  The Texas Rangers have as good an infield as there is in baseball.  Now that Miguel Cabrera is likely to be back at first base in Detroit, one can certainly argue Adrian Beltre is the best third baseman in baseball.  Elvis Adrus is a top tier shortstop, and the Texas Rangers have dealt away Ian Kinsler to make room for one of the best young players in the game, Jurickson Profar.  Kinsler was not dealt away for nothing, in fact, they got a whole lot of a first baseman in Prince Fielder.  They also have a pretty good top of the rotation.  Yu Darvish is one of the top five pitchers in baseball, Derek Holland is an All-Star, and Neftali Feliz has incredible stuff and can be an excellent closer.

Weaknesses: Outfield.  Nelson Cruz is currently a free agent, and missed 50 games to suspension in 2013.  Alex Rios is still there and the Rangers are very high on center fielder Leonys Martin, but currently in left, they have former Oakland A’s prospect Michael Choice, who has not done much at the big league level.  They have also lost A.J. Pierzynski, and resigned Geovany Soto, but Soto ‘s best year of his career was his rookie season when he won the Rookie of the Year Award.

Off-Season Needs:  With the Winter Meetings having kicked off, there are plenty of rumors swirling around, one of which has the Rangers interested in Shin-Soo Choo, and that makes sense.  They likely won’t go back to Nelson Cruz, but do need another bat in the outfield, and Choo can be a middle of the order guy, or a top of the order guy.  They could also use another starter, and possibly a veteran arm in the bullpen.

2014 Projection:  The AL West will likely be a three team race, between the Rangers and two teams we have yet to highlight, hint, one won’t be the Houston Astros.  The Rangers have stumbled the past two years despite being preseason division favorites, but this year is different.  So far, the four other teams in the division have gotten better, but I am not sure the Rangers have.  They will still flirt with 90 wins, but are far from the hands down favorites going into 2014.

You can follow Shaun Kernahan on twitter @shaunkernahan, add him to your network on Google, and like Shaun on Facebook.

Los Angeles Angels 2013/14 Off-Season Preview

Strengths: Power and baseball’s best player. There is a lot of pop in this lineup. As many as four guys could theoretically smash 35 or more home runs. One of those four, Mike Trout, is barely in the infancy of his career but is already baseball’s best player. The front of the rotation shapes up pretty formidably as well, with Jered Weaver and CJ Wilson. The falloff is pretty dramatic thereafter, however.

Weaknesses: Pitching depth and bad contracts. The rotation is very much a question after Weaver and Wilson. The epic failures of Tommy Hanson and Joe Blanton were a big reason for last season’s struggles. Allowing the quietly solid, if unspectacular, Jerome Williams to depart is a bit of a head scratcher too. It’s not like there was a surplus of guys who were both versatile and durable on the staff. The specter of decline also seems to be hanging over Albert Pujols and Josh Hamilton. Unless they rebound significantly in 2014, their contracts could be albatrosses to a club who has grown used to success and the recruiting ability that comes with it.

Off-Season Needs: Shore up the bullpen and the back of the rotation. The Cubbies might be willing to part with Jeff Szamardzija if Mark Trumbo was involved. Cheap bullpen help may not be quite as simple, as most of the proven names on the market will be commanding a good chunk of money. Heck, Brian Wilson just got ten million for 2014 after throwing fewer than 20 innings in 2013. Joe Smith is a nice addition, but also a bit overrated after a nice 2013. An interesting option might be looking across the ocean to Japan. In 2006, Takashi Saito came to the Dodgers at age 36 with no fanfare, and for chump change, and proceeded to pitch wonderfully. Why can’t the Angels find similar magic?

2014 Outlook: Not good. Not bad either, but not good. The Rangers are legit. So are the A’s. Seattle looks more like a contender than not after signing Robbie Cano. That’s not to say the Angels can’t hang, but three tough teams in one division is a lot to overcome. They may win 85-88, but that won’t be enough for a playoff berth.

Colorado Rockies 2013/14 Off-Season Preview

Strengths:  CarGo and Tulo.  Carlos Gonzalez and Troy Tulowitzki are both superstars in their prime.  The Rockies have other quality pieces, Nolan Arrenado being at the top of the list, but and a decent rotation given the home ballpark.  Despite the humidor, the Rockies will never be a destination for free agent pitchers, but they have two power arms in the minors that may be able to shine for the Rockies, problem is they are still another year or so away.

Weaknesses: Right side of the infield.  The biggest weakness is at first base and I am not completely sold on DJ LeMehieu.  Jordan Pacheco at first base is clearly not who they want to go into opening day with.  The bullpen could also use an extra arm or two, but it could be difficult to convince quality arms to head to Mile High.

Off-Season Needs:  First Base.  Corey Hart makes a ton of sense here.  He is a power bat that can play first or outfield (Michael Cuddyer isn’t exactly a spring chicken) and is looking for a one year deal after missing all of 2013.  The thin air at Coors Field might be the perfect spot for him, and the Rockies could benefit from another power bat.

2014 Projection:  There is talk of the Rockies moving Tulo, and if they do, they will probably lose about 90 games, but that also might not be a bad thing.  They have two excellent arms still a year away, and with Tulo inching toward free agency, a reload might be a smart move for this team.

You can follow Shaun Kernahan on twitter @shaunkernahan, add him to your network on Google, and like Shaun on Facebook.

San Diego Padres 2013/14 Off-Season Preview

Strengths:  Talent.  Believe it or not, this team is loaded with talent.  They added Josh Johnson to their rotation and he should be able to turn his career around in spacious PetCo Park and is an excellent #2 behind Andrew Cashner.  Chase Headley has proven he is for real, the outfield is solid, and the Padres have two starting caliber catchers.  In addition to quality starting players at every position, they have quality utility men in Alexi Amarista and Logan Forsythe to serve as depth.

Weaknesses: Top level talent.  While the Padres have quality players at every position, they do not have a star.  Their top two prospects won’t fit the bill either.  Max Fried has the potential to be a top of the rotation pitcher, and there is nobody in the minor leagues I am higher on than Austin Hedges, but Hedges is a defensive wiz and is average at best at the plate.  While Headley has proven he is a legit middle of the rotation bat, he is far from a superstar. 

Off-Season Needs:  A difference maker.  Problem is, the Padres aren’t exactly big spenders, and there isn’t a difference maker that can come at a reasonable price.  Robinson Cano, Jacoby Ellsbury, Shin-Soo Choo, and Curtis Granderson will simply cost too much for the Padres.  The Padres ballpark doesn’t make it a popular destination for one year contracts, so Corey Hart, Mike Morse, and Nate McClouth aren’t legit options.  The signings that might fall within budget and fit the team best would be surprises, but former Red Sox Jonny Gomes and/or Stephen Drew could lift the Padres to playoff contenders.

2014 Projection:  .500.  The Padres have enough talent to not be bad, but not enough to be good.  They are the epitome of a .500 club.

You can follow Shaun Kernahan on twitter @shaunkernahan, add him to your network on Google, and like Shaun on Facebook.

San Francisco Giants 2013/14 Off-Season Preview

Strengths: Management and front office. Last year didn’t go well, but say what you want, Bruce Bochy is one of baseball’s best managers. Remember, he took this team to two championships in three years with a roster with decidedly fewer superstars than most championship teams have. The front office deserves a tip of the cap for that too, compiling a team that wins without the budgetary freedom of the Yankees, Dodgers, Red Sox, Rangers, etc. If you’d nitpick, you could say that they overpaid to keep Tim Lincecum and probably should have held onto Nathan Schierholtz last year, but nobody is perfect. 

Weaknesses: Pitching depth. Don’t get me wrong, the staff isn’t…bad. But they’re not as scary as they used to be. Matt Cain regressed after a Cy Young-worthy 2012. Lincecum, no-hitter notwithstanding, is pedestrian these days. Madison Bumgarner, while good, has never turned into the Clayton Kershaw facsimile many expected, and Ryan Vogelsong looks more like, well, Ryan Vogelsong than Greg Maddux, like he kinda did for a bit there. When you look at it, is there anything overly impressive, or did everyone overreact a little bit to overachievement?

Off-Season Needs: Shore up the bullpen a little and…fine, I’ll say it. Trade for David Price. I’d hate to see it happen, but if you move Buster Posey to first base full time, give the catching duties to the underrated Hector Sanchez, you end up with Brandon Belt and Brett Pill as tradable commodities to package with a couple of blue chippers. Now everyone do me a favor, and nobody tell the Giants to do this. 

2014 Outlook: They should improve over 2013, but the NL West is going to be tough to win with the Dodgers’ unlimited purse strings to contend with, and the Wild Card ain’t gonna be easy to get either with three legitimate playoff quality teams in the NL Central. Ballpark, 85 wins.

Arizona Diamondbacks 2013/14 Off-Season Preview

Strengths:  Goldy.  If the Arizona Diamondbacks had sniffed the playoffs last season, Paul Goldschmidt likely would have won NL MVP.  He hit over .300, got on base at better than a .400 clip, launched 36 dingers, and drove in 125 runs…decent.  The team also has an athletic outfield, a young defensive wiz at short, a future mainstay at third in Matt Davidson, and a veteran duo at second base.  Miguel Montero does an excellent job handling an above average, but nothing special starting staff.

Weaknesses: A second power hitter.  The Diamondbacks really don’t have one.  Martin Prado was second on the team in home runs with just 14.  The Eaton/Pollock/Parra trio in the outfield is good, but all three are relatively light hitting center field types.  The outfield range and defense is excellent, but they could use a better hitting outfielder and turn Pollock and Parra into a platoon.

Off-Season Needs:  The D-Backs need to add another power bat, and could use another arm.  Lucky for them they have a great trade chip in shortstop prospect Chris Owings, who is currently blocked by Didi Gregorius, who could net them one of those two needs.  Here is another spot Mike Morse would fit well, this time in right or left field, and they could also use another arm in the bullpen.

2014 Projection:  The Diamondbacks are just a couple moves away from challenging the Dodgers for the division title.  They will never be the favorite in the division, but much like the Oakland A’s in the AL West the past two years, the lower payroll, less flashy team might be able to rise above the rest.

You can follow Shaun Kernahan on twitter @shaunkernahan, add him to your network on Google, and like Shaun on Facebook.

Los Angeles Dodgers 2013/14 Off-Season Preview

Strengths: Starting Pitching. Perhaps only the Detroit Tigers can also boast that they have two legitimate aces. The Dodgers also have a very very good number three in Hyun Jin Ryu. If they get even passable big league pitching from some combination of Danny Haren, Josh Beckett, Chad Billingsley when he’s healthy, and Stephen Fife, they should be in excellent shape. The lineup looks very deep on paper too, but you’re crossing your fingers if you’re a Dodger fan, and hoping for a bit of luck with health.

Weaknesses: Leadership and the bullpen. Somehow, Don Mattingly finished second in the NL Manager of the Year vote. I don’t get it. He’s good enough with young players and coaxing over-achievement out of middling veterans, but if you need good decisions made late in games to pull out victories, he’s not the guy. And he’s proven it. The pen also stands to lose J.P. Howell and Brian Wilson, two key performers who were brilliant down the stretch and must be replaced if they can’t be resigned.

Off-season Needs: They need to figure out who is going to be at third. Former punchline Juan Uribe was quietly solid offensively all year, and oddly brilliant defensively. He can be had back but is it worth a two year deal? If they are going to overpay for someone, and they always do, they should make it Howell. He’s been excellent his entire career, has bundles of post-season experience, and the way Mattingly mismanages bullpens, you can bet Paco Rodriguez will probably falter again as the go-to lefty late in 2014.

2014 Outlook: NL West champs. They should win the division by a decent margin. The talent is there to win 100 games, you figure Mattingly will cost them about 5 with his atrocious managing, but 95 wins should still be good enough.

Chicago White Sox 2013/14 Off-Season Preview

Strengths:  Young talent.  Despite losing 99 games in 2013, the Chicago White Sox have a decent squad.  Dayan Viciedo in left and Avisail Garcia are solid corner outfielders that can hold down the positions for many years to come.  Adam Dunn is getting near the twilight of his career, but on the rare occasion he makes contact with at baseball, it still go really far.  The infield is decent, but the real strength is the ace, Chris Sale, and closer, Addison Reed.   Those two are as talented a young duo as there is.

Weaknesses: First Base and future talent.  The White Sox have the start of a good team, and the arrow would be looking up, if they had any talent in the minor league system.  The trade that sent Jake Peavy to the Boston Red Sox brought Avisail Garcia and prospect Brandon Jacobs to the White Sox.  Currently on MLB.com’s list, Jacobs is listed as the team’s seventh best prospect.  When he was in the Red Sox system, he regularly sat in the late twenties and early thirties in terms of prospects….the Red Sox system is good, but that is a massive gap in talent.  Now, first base is a mess.  The depth chart lists Jose Abreu as the first baseman, a 26 year old player yet to make his big league debut who is not even considered a prospect.

Off-Season Needs:  I usually love looking at what teams could do to improve, but I am at a loss here for the White Sox.  Clearly they need to add a first baseman, and I can’t even go with my typical Mike Morse move here because he is too much like a right handed Adam Dunn.  So I move to James Loney, but Loney just had a decent year and is likely looking for multiple years, but isn’t really the type of guy the White Sox need.  If I were the White Sox, I would sign Clint Barmes and Mark Reynolds, trade Alexei Ramirez for upper minors depth, and then look to deal Reynolds during the season if he is having a decent year. 

2014 Projection:  The White Sox will be the second to last place team in the AL Central.  They are better than the Minnesota Twins, and just good enough to not earn a top five pick in the 2015 draft, but they also aren’t good enough to really contend.  I see them hanging around at the All-Star break, giving fans in Chicago some false hope, before completely falling apart and dropping fast in the standings.

You can follow Shaun Kernahan on twitter @shaunkernahan, add him to your network on Google, and like Shaun on Facebook.

Cleveland Indians 2013/14 Off-Season Preview

Strengths: Middle infield. I know, I know, odd choice, but Jason Kipnis and Asdrubal Cabrera make up a pretty awesome 2B SS combo on both sides of the ball. Also, their general lineup depth is pretty solid. Guys like Nick Swisher, Michael Bourn, and Ryan Raburn aren’t stars but they produce. I like the David Murphy signing too because it allows the Tribe to manage the exposure of the talented but flawed Drew Stubbs.

Weaknesses: Pitching. Their bullpen was a collection of mediocre arms anyway, and that was before the departure of the best of the bunch, Joe Smith. Vinnie Pestano may have the inside track at the closer gig with Chris Perez being gone, but how comfortable is manager, Terry Francona going to be with that? Now let’s look at the rotation. Not bad by any standards, but definitely boosted by resurgent seasons from Ubaldo Jimenez and Scott Kazmir, both free agents. Who is going to fill that void?

Off-season Needs: Well, apart from replacing the quality starts and innings provided by Jimenez and Kazmir, they definitely need to find a semi full-time lineup spot for Yan Gomes. There’s chatter about moving Carlos Santana to third base but his offensive value pretty much comes entirely from the fact that he’s a catcher. Move him to third or first, he’s entirely mediocre and a defensive liability to boot. About the closer spot, look for them to make a run at a guy with a good track record but a lost 2013. Maybe Joel Hanrahan.

2014 Outlook: Good. I think. If I’m a tribe fan, I’m terrified of the pitching situation beyond Masterson and Kluber, but you have to think that Terry Francona will be able to coax enough wins out of this team to contend for a wild card. I love the resigning of Jason Giambi too. One of the reasons I’m not a huge fan of the WAR stat is that it doesn’t have a way to quantify the value of a guy like Giambi.