2014 World Cup Preview: Group G

Group at a Glance: Germany, Portugal, Ghana, United States. We definitely have a contender for the Group of Death here. Three very tough teams, plus the United States who have shown that when on their game, they can in fact hang with the world’s best. There should be some barnburners in this group, but it’s also another example of how the current system is horribly flawed. When one group has four teams that are better than the seeded teams in some other groups, that’s a problem. However, if you’re grading on entertainment value, this is probably the group to watch. If there’s a common perceived weakness with these teams, it’s strength in defense, so you’re going to see lots of goals.

Favorites to Advance: Germany and Portugal. The obvious isn’t always the way it goes in World Cup soccer, but in this case, it is. Both squads are fielding world-class midfields and loads of big stage experience. And of the four rickety defenses, the US and Ghana are the most vulnerable.

Players to Watch: Sami Khedira, Mesut Ozil, Cristiano Ronaldo, and Nani. Who is looking forward to defending these guys? Yeah, I wouldn’t be either. Masterful, the first three, and occasionally so for Nani, the German and Portuguese midfields will be something to behold.

Homer Corner: The United States has its plusses. They have some experience in midfield, some talented players in the world’s top leagues, and a coach in Jurgen Klinsman who has the players’ belief and dedication. That said, there are too many question marks. The unproven Omar Gonzales and Clarence Goodson take over central defense from the dependable duo of Carlos Bocanegra and Jay Demerit. Inexplicably, DaMarcus Beasley, who long ago sailed past the last port of international soccer relevance, is deemed to be the best option at left back. God only knows who replaces the criminally underrated Steve Cherundolo at right back. Geoff Cameron? Michael Parkhurst? Timothy Chandler? Eric Lichaj? It doesn’t appear to be a winning combo. Veteran Clint Dempsey provides some scoring punch up front, and if they move Landon Donovan to the wing, where he’s better suited, and pair Dempsey with Jozy Altidore at forward, they may score enough to edge a result over Ghana. But sadly, the group stage is where it will end for the stars and stripes in 2014.

2014 World Cup Preview: Group F

Group at a Glance: Argentina, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Iran, and Nigeria.  There are several groups in the running for group of death, this is not one of them.  Argentina currently sits at third in the world according to FIFA standings, with Bosnia-Herzegovina coming in at 19, Iran at 33, and Nigeria at 37. This group probably has the least amount of total talent of all the groups.

Favorites to Advance: If Argentina does not go through the group stage with nine points, they have failed.  They should win the group easy and the battle is for second.  Bosnia-Herzegovina is the initial favorite to be the second team out of the group, but their biggest competition might be Nigeria.  Iran may be ranked higher than Nigeria in the current FIFA standings, but Nigeria is the better team.

Player(s) to Watch: It is very easy, and correct, to say the player to watch is Lionel Messi for Argentina.  He is the best player in the world and it really isn’t all that close.  When not watching in awe of Messi, the other guy to keep an eye on is Edin Dzeko from Bosnia-Hezegovina.  Dzeko has teamed with Sergio Aguero at Manchester City to create arguably the best striking duo in the Premiership, and that comes from a United supporter.

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2014 World Cup Preview: Group E

Group at a Glance: Switzerland, Ecuador, France, and Honduras. Either Sepp Blatter, and to a lesser degree Michel Platini, custom built this group for their respective countries in one of the most brazen middle finger raisings to the concept of fairness in sports, or it’s one hell of a coincidence. Given Blatter’s unabashed narcissism, it’s likely the former. You could argue that seeded team Switzerland isn’t one of the top 30 teams in the World, let alone the top 8. The French, on the other hand, on paper appear to be reasonably good, but performed so abysmally in South Africa in 2010 that a seed for them would have been laughable, even for the megalomaniacal Blatter. Or, you know, it could all be a coincidence and it was just luck that the home nations of soccer’s two most powerful men ended up sharing a group with two of the perceived weaker sides in the tournament, Ecuador and Honduras. But let me be the first to say, don’t under estimate Ecuador, and especially Honduras. Wait, you mean I’m not the first? Fine, let me be the second… not the second either? To hell with you then, let me just say it…

Favorites to Advance: France and Honduras. France just has too many world class players to not make it out of this group. Ribery, Nasri, Evra, and a host of others competing in the upper echelons of the World’s elite leagues. I admit it, Honduras may be a bit of a homer pick for me, as four current members of the national squad at either at one point played, or still do for my favorite English side, Wigan Athletic: Maynor Figueroa, Wilson Palacios, Roger Espinoza, and Juan Carlos Garcia. The Swiss are well organized and defensively responsible, but I don’t see them scoring enough to advance, especially with the retirement of Alexander Frei. Ecuador tries as hard as anyone, and did brilliantly to qualify, but apart from Manchester United’s Antonio Valencia (another old Wigan hand), they’re going to be overmatched talent-wise.

Players to Watch: If the Swiss are going to make me eat crow and advance out of the group stage, it will take titanic performances in the midfield, namely from the brilliant Gokhan Inler, as well as Bayern Munich’s Xherdan Shaquiri and veteran, Tranquillo Barnetta. I’ll also be keeping an eye on Carlos Costly, Honduras’ top striker. As a player, he’s never really overwhelmed me… but as a center forward, you don’t need to be overwhelmingly good. You just need to smash the ball into the net when the opportunity presents itself, and Costly does it a lot. Teams often go far in big tournaments on the broad shoulders of a striker on a hot streak, and if Costly goes on one, Honduras could be dangerous.

2014 World Cup Preview: Group D

Group at a Glance: Uruguay, Costa Rica, England, and Italy.  The World Cup in theory is the 32 best countries in the world battling in a single tournament, so tough groups are to be accepted, and this is another one.  Behind the likes of my single least favorite footballer in the world, Luis Suarez, Uruguay is a tough out, although the back of their starting eleven is much weaker than the front of it.  Italy and England are European power houses that could very easily been one of the eight ranked teams ahead of such teams as Belgium, but instead they find themselves in the same group.  Costa Rica is no slouch, and they will certainly be happy the World Cup is being played in Brazil and not Denver, where they lost an epic match to the USA in a blizzard.

Favorites to Advance: Uruguay is the ranked team, so naturally they get the initial nod as a favorite to advance, but it won’t be easy.  England and Italy will battle it out for what will likely be the second spot, but just one of them pulling off a win against Uruguay could lead to both teams getting out of the group.  That said, if I were a betting man, which I tend to be, my money would probably be on Uruguay and Italy, but I wouldn’t feel confident in it.

Player(s) to Watch: There was a fantastic piece early this year in ESPN the Magazine regarding the Italian football fans view on minorities on the pitch, but they will have to put aside the large amount of racism, because their hopes and dreams rely on the right foot of Mario Balotelli.  Since I can’t bring myself to say Luis Suarez is a player to watch, unless it is to get you angry at the TV after he takes another dive and rips into the refs for not calling the invented foul, Wayne Rooney facing up Gigi Buffon is a matchup to watch.  Buffon will be between the pipes in what will likely be his final World Cup, and his performance against the English strikers just may determine which squad moves on.

You can follow Shaun Kernahan on twitter @shaunkernahan, add him to your network on Google, and like Shaun on Facebook.

2014 World Cup Preview: Group C

Group at a Glance: Colombia, Greece, Ivory Coast, and Japan. Some groups are made up entirely of teams that would surprise nobody if they advanced as far as the quarter or semi-finals. Then there are groups, like Group C, that are made up entirely of teams that would likely not earn more than a point or two in the group stages if the groups had shaped up differently. Somehow, Colombia is ranked high enough in the FIFA world rankings to have earned a seed, but that’s neither here nor there. Greece is a former European champion, and though most of their participants from that team have since retired, you can make the argument that their discipline and organization can serve them well on big stages. The Ivory Coast has fire power up front with Didier Drogba, Salomon Kalou, and Arouna Kone. And Japan made it out of the group stages last time so they shouldn’t be discounted.

Favorites to Advance: Ivory Coast and Japan. The Ivory Coast does have some elite players on it, and if they move Yaya Toure back into defense from midfield to pair with brother, Kolo, they should just about be able to defend well enough to win the group. Japan always impresses me with their selfless, team-first approach across all sports. And there is some talent there too. Nothing short of Sepp Blatter being caught in a bathhouse with 16 hookers and being forced to retire in shame would make me happier than Colombia, the seeded team of the group, going winless and finishing last in the group. Nothing against Colombia, but processes that don’t work are rarely changed unless the whole not working thing is featured in a bright spotlight. A seeded team finishing last in their group could do that.

Player(s) to Watch: The Japanese backline, namely Maya Yoshida, the 6 foot 2 center back currently holding his own quite will with Southampton in England’s Premier League. They’ve got some good talent, including Inter Milan’s Yuto Nagatomo, but they’re going to be way outsized by pretty much every opponent, and will need to be on point. Yoshida, as the biggest of the backs, will be under the microscope. Wait, that makes no sense…

2014 World Cup Preview: Group B

Group at a Glance: Spain, Holland, Chile, and Australia.  The clear cut storyline is the rematch of the 2010 World Cup final facing each other to kick off the group.  The Dutch lost to Spain in 2010, but will look to get a bit of payback by trying to kick off Spain’s attempt at a repeat without points in the first match.  The Dutch also look to finally break through, after having finished runner-up three times without ever becoming champions.  In a November friendly at Wembley Stadium, Chile beat England 2-0 thanks to a pair of goals from Barcelona forward Alexis Sanchez.  Australia will simply be out manned and out classed in this group.  They have been in poor form of late, and there isn’t an easy match in the group.

Favorites to Advance: Spain is by far the favorite to advance, and should be able to do so relatively easily, but the second spot might not be as straight forward as it seems.  ESPN actually gives Chile a near 75% chance to advance, Holland just about 40%.  2014 might be the last chance for the Dutch with their big three still in their relative prime.  Robin Van Persie, Aren Robben, and Wesley Sneijder will all be 30 at this World Cup, so it could be their last chance to make a run deep into the tournament.  The Chile-Holland match will determine who is the second team to advance from the group, and I give a slight edge to the Dutch.

Player(s) to Watch: The most intriguing player might be Chile’s Alexis Sanchez.  At the club level, he is stuck behind Lionel Messi and Neymar, but he has the chance to be the star for Chile at the World Cup.  The best goal scorer in the group is Manchester United striker Robin Van Persie, and needs to have an excellent tournament for Holland to do well.  Spain is the most talented squad in the world, so really anybody that takes to the pitch for them is a player to keep an eye on.

You can follow Shaun Kernahan on twitter @shaunkernahan, add him to your network on Google, and like Shaun on Facebook.

2014 World Cup Preview: Group A

Group at a Glance: Brazil, Croatia, Mexico and Cameroon. At first blush, host country and favorite Brazil would appear to have gotten a fairly easy path out of the group stage. In this case, the first blush is correct. Top to bottom, they’re stacked. Mexico and Croatia are not walkovers for most teams. The Croatians have a handful of players who feature prominently for big European squads, including guys like Mario Mandzukic, Nikica Jelavic, and Eduardo on the front line. The Mexicans have great chemistry and fitness, seeing as the Stadio Azteca is like three million feet above sea level, but lack size in defense and are thusly vulnerable to set pieces. Cameroon…well, Roger Milla is 61 now, so who is going to work the miracles? They have some guys who can play, like Chelsea’s Samuel Eto’o and Queens Park’s Benoit Assou-Ekotto, but let’s call it what it is. They can’t defend at the level required to deal with scorers in this group and will be overrun.

Favorites to Advance: Brazil is as close to a lock as you can get. It comes down to Mexico and Croatia for the second spot out of this group, and while I’d love to see the Mexicans and their up-tempo, pleasing-to-the-eye style move on, it will likely be the Croatians. They’ve simply got more players with experience on soccer’s biggest stages.

Player(s) to Watch: Javier “Chicharito” Hernandez. His propensity to be completely ineffective for long stretches is maddening. That said, he is one of the most talented forwards in the world, and if he goes on one of his streaks where he scores goals by the bucket load, it could fire Mexico out of the group stage. And then, of course, there’s Neymar. There aren’t enough superlatives to describe what he is capable of, and I can’t wait to see what he does on soccer’s biggest stage. If early returns at Barcelona for the 21-year-old are any indication (see: Champions League hat trick against Celtic), it could be magical. Plus, he has great hair.

Previewing (and pointing out the ridiculousness and corruption of) the 2014 FIFA World Cup Groups

Holy (soccer) balls, what a draw, huh? Over the next few weeks, Shaun and I will be dissecting the 8 groups that make up the first round of the 2014 FIFA World Cup.

To say the least, there were some…odd occurences. For one, the Swiss got one of the eight seeds, ensuring that they would not end up in a group with multiple tough teams. That’s not a huge surprise, as FIFA president Sepp Blatter is Swiss, and already has a lengthy history of corruption. In the interest of full disclosure, these allegations of corruption were never “proven,” though it was the Swiss authorities that cleared him of financial mismanagement over huge losses tied to FIFA marketing partner ISL’s collapse, while a potentially less biased Council of Europe alleged that he was aware of what was going on. When FIFA conducted an internal review, it was Blatter who halted it under some pretense of confidentiality breach.

And then, you have UEFA President Michel Platini, whose French shares a group with the Swiss, and the unheralded Ecuador and Honduras. There might be those more trusting that ask, “but wait, if this was so corrupt, would the French have gotten a seed too, ensuring them a theoretically easier path out of the group stages?” Well, after their awful showing in South Africa in 2010, that would have been even a tougher sell. Platini was one of the greatest soccer players that ever lived, and that is beyond dispute, but he evidently isn’t above taking favors.

And then, you have Colombia and Belgium getting seeds over powerhouse teams and former champions like Italy and England. And while Uruguay isn’t bad by any stretch, they were somehow seeded ahead of last year’s finalist, Holland. FIFA defenders will tell you there is a points system that determines a team’s ranking in the World, but when Belgium, Colombia, Uruguay and Switzerland are ranked above Italy, England, Portugal, Holland, and even solid African sides like Ghana and the Ivory Coast, how reliable is that system?

Anyway, we hope you are looking forward to our analysis of the World Cup groups, as we are certainly looking forward to writing about it. There’s nothing like blatant skullduggery by those in charge to stoke the creative fires. I promise though, we’ll be impartial… mostly. Our first group is Group A, consisting of Brazil, Croatia, Mexico and Cameroon. See you Monday for that one!

Seattle Mariners 2013/14 Off-Season Preview

Strengths:   Apparently a free spending owner.  We have heard for a few years that the Seattle Mariners were prepared to spend big in free agency with no big moves, until this year.  The massive Robinson Cano signing started it off, but they weren’t done there, and I don’t believe they are done yet.  The Mariners have added plenty of power by also signing Corey Hart and trading for Logan Morrison.  The Mariners also have a great one-two punch at the top of the rotation and several big league ready starters in the farm system.

Weaknesses:  Bullpen and center.  The Mariners do not have a guy who can be trusted to close out games, and currently have failed second baseman Dustin Ackley penciled in center.  In addition, the DH will likely be Justin Smoak with Jesus Montero waiting in the wings, but neither have proven they can do anything impressive at the big league level.

Off-Season Needs:  Rumors continue to swirl the Mariners are interested in trading for Matt Kemp, or singing Shin-Soo Choo or Nelson Cruz.  I don’t get the Cruz signing if they go that direction unless it is followed by trading both Ackley and Smoak, to open center for Michael Saunders and allow Hart and Morrison to spend some time at DH to rest both guys bad knees.

2014 Projection: I am pretty high on the Mariners, but still see them finishing third in the division.  I like what they are doing, and wouldn’t be surprised if they finish ahead of the Texas Rangers, but I think they will end up around 85 wins.  They probably need another year to work in their young pitchers and still need a piece or two to solidify the outfield and figure out if the left side of the infield is good enough to be a contender.

You can follow Shaun Kernahan on twitter @shaunkernahan, add him to your network on Google, and like Shaun on Facebook.

Houston Astros 2013/14 Off-Season Preview

Strengths:  Front Office.  I really like what the Houston Astros are doing.  They have had the past two first overall picks and will have the top pick again this year.  Carlos Correia projects as a solid shortstop in the future, maybe not a perennial All-Star, but he will make a few, Mark Appel is a top of the rotation starter, and likely top pick this year will be NC State star, Carlos Rodon, who might already be able to get big league hitters out at a decent rate.  They also have a potential middle of the order bat in Jonathan Singleton, and have George Springer, who came just three long balls shy of a record setting 40/40 minor league season.  Add to that plethora of talent coming up through the minor leagues, and take in to account they already have a solid DH in Chris Carter, and a mini star at second in Jose Altuve, and they have a great future. 

Weaknesses: Big league talent.  The roster this year is better than last year, but still not great.  Matt Dominguez is an ok third baseman, but is not a starter on a contending level team.  I like the addition of Fowler, especially since the expected future center fielder, Delino DeShields Jr., looks absolutely lost when running down fly balls in the outfield.  There might be some solid arms in the farm system, but both the starting rotation and bullpen need a significant amount of help if they are to be competitive.

Off-Season Needs:  The biggest need is a quality marketing pitch.  The Astros have made no excuses or hidden the fact they don’t expect to compete until 2015 or 2016, and I think they are on pace to do just that.  They will likely be a .500 club if they have a good off-season in 2014, and could compete for the division if they do the same after 2015, but this year, they are gonna struggle.

2014 Projection: Bad, but not the worst team in the league anymore.  They will finish fifth in the division, but I don’t see them getting the top overall pick in 2015.  They will probably lose somewhere between low-to-mid 90’s in terms of games, and be a top five pick, but they will break the streak of three consecutive years with the worst record in baseball.

 

You can follow Shaun Kernahan on twitter @shaunkernahan, add him to your network on Google, and like Shaun on Facebook.