Author: Shaun P Kernahan

The Bastardization of the Prospect

That title used to mean something. The population of players between Rookie Ball and AAA were all collectively known as “minor leaguers.” But if you were a prospect, you were different. There were expectations of you. Greater things were imagined. People knew your name. From the moment you were drafted, your future was determined. The barrier between AAA and big leagues would be broken by you. At least that was the hope. There was always the chance, a significant chance in fact, that you would become a statistic – a tale of what could have been.

Now, anyone with spikes and a bat is a prospect. Really. The truth is this. Tons of guys get drafted by organizations who know full well that they’re never getting to the bigs. But hey, mop up middle relievers are needed in blowouts at the AA level too, right? Why have some kid with a future risk his precious elbow when you could have some cheap labor handle it. But in the new world of baseball journalism, that guy is a prospect too.

By very definition, prospect means that there’s a probability, likelihood, or at the very least, chance for future success. Here’s a couple of headlines and intros from this week’s baseball news.

Kemp to Padres for C Prospect Grandal

Dodgers Acquire Prized Catching Prospect for Kemp

Gordon to Marlins for Three Prospects

Yasmani Grandal is 26 years old. He’s been in the big leagues since 2012. That’s long enough for him to have raised expectations with solid rookie campaign, albeit in a tiny sample size, get suspended 50 games for PED use, return and blow out a knee, return from that and forget how to hit, as evidenced by his absurd 115 strikeouts in only 445 plate appearances in 2014. But he’s a prospect. Now, Grandal’s supporters will point to his 15 home runs, not a bad power display in Petco Park from a switch hitting catcher, as well as his proficiency in the ridiculously overblown metric of pitch framing. His detractors will point to his ludicrously bad contact rate, inability to even remotely control the running game, and the tricky nature of knee injuries for catchers. The fact that he possesses the ability to hit the occasional long ball will make him useful on a big league roster, but is that enough, irrespective of whether you believe he was enough of a return for Matt Kemp, to be given the label of prospect? At age 26!?

Chris Hatcher, referred to by multiple media outlets as a pitching prospect acquired in the Dee Gordon trade, is 29 years old with an ERA of nearly 5 over 81 career games. He was originally drafted as a catcher, but couldn’t hit enough. Shifted to the mound, he stuck for the majority of a big league season for the first time in 2014. He’s a sort of success story who is easy to cheer for, and probably deserves a job pitching in a major league bullpen if his 5 to 1 strikeout to walk ratio last season isn’t a fluke. But even the most fervent of optimist would have to admit that age 29, it’s likely he’ll never progress very far past where he is now, a potentially somewhat useful middle reliever. Is that a prospect? Can a 29-year-old even be a prospect?

I don’t know if it’s the English language I’m grieving for, or if it’s the slow and painful death of insightful baseball writing. I’m appealing to you, Buster Olney, and you, Jonah Keri, and Bill Plaschke, and…and…hell, anyone with a keyboard. If you’re going to write about baseball, or any sport for that matter, can we start calling things what they are again?

Pitch Framing: Just Stop it Already

Ok, enough already. Admittedly, I’m a little old fashioned when it comes to baseball and sabermetrics. I’m coming around a little bit, though. While I still think the multiple formulas out there for WAR (wins above replacement) still seem awfully arbitrary to me, they generally seem to be in the neighborhood of making sense most of the time. Guys like Miguel Cabrera, Mike Trout, Clayton Kershaw, Giancarlo Stanton, and Yadier Molina get justifiably awesome scores. Guys like Ryan Ludwick, Gordon Beckham, and Travis D’Arnaud get suitably poor scores. And perpetually and criminally underrated guys like Hunter Pence and Brett Gardner get a bit of deserved props. And then there’s the curious notion that Corey Kluber (excellent, don’t get me wrong) had a higher WAR than Kershaw. Just sayin’, who would you rather have as your number one guy?

Then there are stats like UZR (don’t worry, we’re getting to pitch framing in a second) which measure a fielder’s defensive value based on how many runs they purportedly save based on defensive prowess. Ok, Billy Hamilton somehow outscored Juan Lagares in this metric. Hamilton’s blazing speed is indisputable, and it no doubt helps him chasing down batted balls. But he takes poor routes, and isn’t fast to react to the ball being hit. Lagares lacks the speed of Hamilton, but reacts practically instantly to batted balls, and takes near perfect routes every time. How do you figure? Chase Headley leads the pack for third basemen, far ahead of the immeasurably superior Nolan Arenado. Somehow, Luis Valbuena and Cody Asche chart, while the outstanding Juan Uribe isn’t even on the list. Soooooooo, yeah.

Finally, we get to pitch framing. Admittedly, this is a bit of a homer area for me, being a Dodger fan. In brief, before he signed with the Blue Jays, Russ Martin was a popular pick to go to the Dodgers in free agency because of his high pitch framing stat, something new VP Andrew Friedman is supposedly high on. Couple that with the fact that incumbent AJ Ellis is ranked low in that “statistic,” the writing is on the wall, right?

Let’s just put this to bed as simply as possible. This “metric” is as close to absolute crap as you can get. Here’s why. If you have pitchers that throw predominantly strikes, you don’t have to “frame” pitches.

Now, that’s not to say that there isn’t value in being able to receive a pitch in a manner that doesn’t resemble a seizure. There are plenty of catchers who stab at every ball thrown to them. And they’re all in AA ball or below.

Two of the leaders in the pitch framing “stat” in 2014 were Martin and the Rays’ Jose Molina. One of the worst was the Dodgers’ AJ Ellis. Martin caught the likes of Gerrit Cole and Francisco Liriano. Both guys have superb stuff but struggle with command from time to time because of youth in Cole’s case, or persistent mechanical issues in Liriano’s case. In Molina’s case, he’s catching guys like Jake Odorizzi, Chris Archer, and Alex Cobb; brilliant young talents who have the ability twirl gems any time they are on the mound…but also have the command issues that come with being hard throwers in early stages of what might become brilliant careers.

Plenty of pitches to frame for both of those catchers, right?

Here are a few names for you. Clayton Kershaw. Zack Greinke. Dan Haren. Hyun Jin Ryu. Every single one of those pitchers, even Ryu in his brief career, are universally recognized as having good command. Exactly how often does the catcher need to “steal” a strike by “framing” a pitch?

AJ Ellis’ 2015 status with the Dodgers was secure the moment that Clayton Kershaw told Andrew Friedman that AJ was his guy. You don’t eff with your all-universe pitcher and his favorite catcher.

But none of that matters. The bottom line is, guys that throw strikes get calls. Let’s put it this way. Catchers who have to catch a staff of pitchers who don’t necessarily know where the ball is going are going to have to “frame” more pitches than catchers with a staff of guys with solid command.

Guys who throw the ball where the catcher is set up are going to get more strike calls than guys who make the catcher reach for the pitch. Ask any umpire from little league to the pros.

Now for part two of why this pitch framing crap is just that…crap. The two most impactful pitches a pitcher can throw are strike three or ball four. Strike three gets you an out, ball four means a base runner, at the risk of stating the obvious. Those two pitches also share something in common. They signify the end of an at bat. If a borderline call goes against the pitcher on the first pitch, he can still recover to make good pitches after that and get the hitter out. Or, if Jose Molina perfectly frames a borderline pitch for a strike on the first offering, there is nothing to say that the hitter can’t line the next pitch into the gap for a double.

So can we please knock off this bull butter about pitch framing? Can we please stop helping Scott Boras get richer? Please?

Wouldn’t it be Funny…

Silly me for thinking I was the mad genius. The elephant in the the Washington Redskins’ room has been the appearance that Robert Griffin III will simply never develop into a quarterback that can justify the king’s ransom in draft picks they sent to the St. Louis Rams a couple of years ago to get him. It just seems that nobody wanted to say the obvious. “It probably ain’t working…”

Then along comes ESPN’s John Keim, who would know better than most, with this article.

Immediately, I cackle to myself. Wouldn’t it be great if the Rams traded for him? As a Rams fan, I don’t actually want this to happen. But as someone who adores satire and unintentional comedy, it would be classic, wouldn’t it? I’m a genius! Let me brag to everyone…

Of course, nobody informed me that Grantland’s Bill Barnwell had already published this beauty. It’s a fun read, but probably should have been confined to the top five, rather than top ten, as a few of the teams listed are wholly unreastic.

So spoiler alert, the Rams are Barnwell’s most likely destination for RGIII to end up. It makes sense because Sam Bradford and his obscene price tag won’t be back after nearly two full seasons lost to injury. Shaun Hill is an adequate back up, but nobody’s idea of a starting quarterback for a team with playoff aspirations in 2015. And Austin Davis, the early season darling of Rams fans, proved he has the competitive spirit to be a leader but the physical tools best suited to be the guy with the clipboard.

In addition, it’s unlikely the Rams will be able to draft their next starting quarterback. Despite a general dearth of competence at nearly every level of leadership, there’s enough talent on the roster to keep them from having a record bad enough that nets a top draft pick. Immediately, that removes them from the running for guys like Marcus Mariota and Jameis Winston.

There won’t be a lot in the free agent pool as far as quarterbacks go, so a trade is the most likely scenario, leaving Griffin and probably Jay Cutler as the only feasible targets. Cutler is a turnover machine and is owed a Brinks truck in gold boullion in salary so he’s out. That leaves Griffin. Essentially, that would mean the Rams got something like Greg Robinson, Alec Ogletree, Michael Brockers, and Janoris Jenkins for whatever conditional mid-round pick it would cost them to bring Griffin to St. Louis. (or Los Angeles, for that matter)

As entertaining as the notion is, here’s why it would end badly. First, all indicators so far in Griffin’s admittedly brief career are that he would need to be in an offense tailored to his skillset. He’s a gifted athlete with a cannon for an arm, but it’s pretty clear at this point he will never be the Michael Vick/Peyton Manning hybrid some envisioned him to be. Still, in the right system, he can thrive. Well, Brian Schottenheimer is one of the most brutally awful offensive coordinators in this history of offensive coordinator being an actual gig. Without any shadow of a doubt, you could reassign Schottenheimer to a position he’s qualified for, say…cotton candy vendor, and have whomever is in at quarterback make every play call at the line, and the offense would improve exponentially.

For perspective, there was a three game span in 2013 where the Rams actually started to get the ball to their most dynamic playmaker by far, Tavon Austin, and resembled a good NFL offense, even with Kellen Clemens at quarterback. Then, it appeared, Schottenheimer panicked because something his offense was doing worked, and immediately abandoned all future plans to get Austin the ball. It is now 13 weeks into the 2014 season, and Austin remains on the distant periphery of the Rams’ offensive game plan.

Secondly, for all of their flaws, the Rams are stocked with clubhouse leadership. Veterans like James Laurinaitas, Robert Quinn, Chris Long and others don’t tolerate any “me first” nonsense, and Griffin with his perpetual soap opera would in all likelihood be ostracized in short order.

But still…it would be hilarious, wouldn’t it?

IBWAA Awards Ballot

Both the BBWAA and the IBWAA have announced all their awards this past week. I am a voter for the IBWAA, and it was certainly interesting to see how my ballot varied from the final vote, although I don’t have any major gripes with any of the awards, outside of maybe Manger of the Year. Fellow IBWAA member and ESPN SweetSpot Blogger Dave Scheonfield did an excellent job breaking down the votes, so I will more speak to the winners and my ballot.

The top reliever matched my votes as I too had Greg Holland and Craig Kimbrel atop my ballot. In the AL, I chose Dellin Betances and Zach Britton to round out my ballot. Betances was a dominant late inning reliever for the Yankees and looking past the completely overrated save statistic, he was as good as there was, but Holland was simply the best. In the NL, I also gave votes to Mark Melancon and Tyler Clippard. Melancon was the best reliever to me on a very good bullpen, and Clippard seemed to be the lone reliever that remained consistent throughout the year for the Washington Nationals.

For Manager of the year, Buck Showalter won in the AL, who was also my top choice. Showalter was able to help lead the Orioles to the AL East title despite major injuries/ suspensions to his top two players, Manny Machado and Chris Davis. I also selected Mike Scioscia despite the fact I largely don’t agree with his managing style, you can’t ignore his success over his tenure with the Angels and his team’s improbable division title. Lloyd Mclendon got my third vote as the work he did to keep the Mariners competitive all season was impressive.

In the NL, Matt Williams won, but he didn’t even crack my ballot. Outside of the Dodgers, the Nationals had the most talent of any team in the NL. Williams made the headlines with his dealings with Bryce Harper far too often. My top choice was Bruce Bochy, and yes this was before the postseason (our ballots were turned in September 28^th). Bochy somehow keeps the Giants competitive regardless of talent and injury woes. Also making my ballot were Clint Hurdle and Mike Matheny.

The Rookie of the Year winners were quite simple. Jose Abreu and Jacob DeGrom were clearly the best in their respective leagues; the trouble was filling out the other two spots. In the AL, there were too many options to choose from, while the NL there weren’t enough. Masahiro Tanaka was a popular recipient of votes, but his injury shortened season just didn’t cut it for me. Coming in second for me in the AL was Yordano Ventura, who was purely dominant at times, which he continued to show into the postseason. My third vote in the AL was Danny Santana who flew under the radar of casual baseball fans, as he plays for the woeful Minnesota Twins, but he hit .319 in 101 games while stealing 20 bags and playing solid defense at both shortstop and centerfield.

In the NL, Billy Hamilton came in third on my ballot but, while his numbers leap off the page and he hit better than many expected, his season as a whole was a bit disappointing, but still good enough to crack my ballot. I was happy to see fellow IBWAA voters recognized the person I had second on my ballot, even if he finished third in the IBWAA vote. While playing for the awful Arizona Diamondbacks, Ender Inciarte has an excellent year.

Was there any question as to who would win the NL Cy Young? Of course Clayton Kershaw ran away with the vote, being selected as a unanimous winner. The next two on my ballot were obvious as well, Adam Wainwright and Johnny Cueto, but that is where I think I differed from most. Fourth on my ballot was Jake Arrieta, who seemed to take a no-hitter into the fifth of every outing this season, and wound up with a 2.53 ERA while striking out more than 9.5 per nine innings of work. My fifth and final spot in the NL was a Washington Nationals pitcher, but not the one that jumps out to most people. To me, and according to Baseball Reference’s WAR, the best pitcher for the Nationals this season was Tanner Roark and his 2.85 ERA and walking less than two per nine innings.

In the AL, Felix Hernandez won the vote, but my top pitcher was the same as the BBWAA, Corey Kluber. I actually selected Chris Sale ahead of Hernandez, but all three had excellent seasons. My final two spots on the ballot went to current free agents, Jon Lester and Max Scherzer.

In the MVP voting, Mike Trout was a pretty simple choice. We submitted ten names for the MVP votes, so let me run those off in order; Trout, Victor Martinez, Miguel Cabrera, Josh Donaldson, Alex Gordon, Nelson Cruz, Jose Altuve, Robinson Cano, Jose Bautista, and Michael Brantley. The one that jumped out to me when crunching the numbers and selecting my top MVP votes was Altuve. He led all of baseball in hits with 225; the only other player to reach the 200 mark was Brantley who hit it right on the nose. Altuve broke the Houston Astros team mark for hits in a season, eclipsing a player who should make the Hall of Fame this year, Craig Biggio. Altuve also led all of baseball in batting average and the AL in steals.

For the NL, Kershaw won the vote, but he didn’t even make my ballot. I have always been pro-pitchers on the MVP ballot until I had to fill one out myself. This is surely a topic that will be discussed on this coming weekend’s podcast here on The Stain, but I just couldn’t put Kershaw on my ballot. He was clearly the best player in baseball, but having to go 10 deep on the ballot made me realize that Kershaw would be the only pitcher that cracked the ballot in either league. This is simply because it is nearly impossible to compare a pitcher to a hitter, and it also wouldn’t be right to give the top spot to a pitcher but not have a pitcher land anywhere else on my ballot. It was then that I decided that my MVP ballot would be for position players only.

My votes went as follows; Andrew McCutchen, Jonathan Lucroy, Anthony Rendon, Giancarlo Stanton, Buster Posey, Yasiel Puig, Josh Harrison, Jason Heyward, Hunter Pence, and Matt Holiday. The NL voting was tough once I removed pitchers from the conversation. Stanton probably would have come out on top for me had it not been for his incredibly unfortunate and ugly injury to end his season early. Yadier Molina didn’t even make my ballot, despite me constantly trying to find a spot for him, but his injury plagued season just didn’t allow him to play enough to make my ballot. In the end it really felt like a war of attrition, but McCutchen won out for me.

MLB Free Agency Predictions

The Guy: Max Scherzer

Overview: Arguably the best player available via free agency this year, the 30 year old bet on himself last year and that appears to have paid off. He turned down a 6-year contract worth $144 million following his Cy Young 2013 campaign, but he should earn more than that on the open market this off-season. He is a Boras client, so this one might take a very long time to work itself out.

Potential Suitors: New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox, Chicago Cubs, Texas Rangers

Shaun’s Thoughts: New York Yankees. The Yankees are in desperate need of a lot of talent, and no more position is of greater need than starting pitcher. Scherzer would immediately step in as the ace of the staff now that CC Sabathia has taken a big step back and it appears Michael Pineda can’t be productive unless he has some extra help from foreign substances not so hidden on his neck. There is no signing I am more confident in than Scherzer to the Yankees.

Dark Horse: Arizona Diamondbacks. The Diamondbacks have completely overhauled their front office, and while they have guys coming back from injury, they need to make moves to keep up with the bottomless pockets of the Los Angeles Dodgers and defending World Series champs San Francisco Giants. Signing Scherzer would give them an ace to match up against Clayton Kershaw and Madison Bumgarner.

Torsten’s Thoughts: I agree with Shaun, the Yankees are the only team that makes sense for what Scherzer is likely to cost. He’s the only true ace level pitcher available, and while I think the Yankees need to do quite a bit of roster modification to get back to consistent success, scooping up the best available players doesn’t hurt.

Dark Horse: Giants. I can’t see him going back to the D’Backs, who shipped him off for cheap when they were convinced his arm wouldn’t hold up under his high impact delivery. I can, however, see the Giants locking down a second ace to partner with Bumgarner. They quietly had a payroll around $160 million last season, so you know they don’t mind spending. A core group of Pence, Panda, Posey, Bumgarner and Scherzer sounds like a nice way to be competitive for the next half decade or so.

The Guy: James Shields

Overview: The third member of the “Big 3” of pitchers in free agency this season will face questions over his lack of production in the post season. There may be some concern over how long his body will hold up given the incredible number of innings he has pitched over the past few seasons, but there is little question he is one of the three best arms available this off-season.

Potential Suitors: Chicago Cubs, Boston Red Sox, Texas Rangers

Shaun’s Thoughts: Boston Red Sox. The Red Sox must sign one of the top three starters in free agency this year, and I belief they will end up having to settle for number three. Their first run will likely be to bring back Jon Lester, but in the end it will the former Tampa Bay Rays starter, James (I still call him Jaime) Sheilds.

Dark Horse: Kansas City Royals. The Royals may not have a ton of money, but their run to the World Series could allow them to spend some extra cash this off-season, and bringing back Shields would be a great help to them. They have some very good young arms, but their potential future ace, Kyle Zimmer, can’t stay healthy, and Sean Manaea isn’t ready for the big leagues, so there isn’t a real impact arm like Yordano Ventura that the Royals can count on coming up in 2015.

Torsten’s Thoughts: Kansas City. Generally, I never question Shaun when he says a guy is going to the Red Sox. I think their front office is pretty astute, however, and will be unwilling to invest the money Shields would command in an arm with that many miles on it. Shields’ poor post-season performance may have knocked just enough off of his price tag, though, for him to stay in Kansas City. The immediate future is bright there.

Dark Horse: Dodgers. I don’t think the market is going to be super robust for Shields. He’ll get some offers, but if he stays on the market for a bit, look for the Dodgers to throw an offer out, and if he’s willing to sacrifice 10-15 million on the back end for a perennial post-season shot, he may end up in a different shade of blue.

The Guy: Yasmani Tomas

Overview: Tomas is just the latest in the influx of Cuban talent defecting to America, and he hopes to break records when it comes to the size of his contract. He has worked out with some teams at third base, but in reality he is a corner outfielder. He is incredibly talented, and is just 24, giving him as much upside as any player on the open market this year.

Potential Suitors: Philadelphia Phillies, Texas Rangers, San Francisco Giants, Seattle Mariners

Shaun’s Thoughts: Philadelphia Phillies. The only thing that may prevent the Phillies from signing him is the fact he is not on the downside of his career. This Phillies have made a habit of signing older players to long, over-priced contracts lately, but with the shakeup in the front office, maybe they will finally get a little younger. Tomas would be a great fit given Darin Ruf and Domonic Brown look like they aren’t true long term fits in that outfield. Tomas would be a great addition.

Dark Horse: Los Angeles Dodgers. Los Angeles may as well be re-named Little Havana given the number of Cubans the Dodgers have signed, so why not add another. Juan Uribe will regress back to replacement level sooner than later, and Hanley is likely to sign elsewhere. If the Dodgers think Tomas can play third and truly believe Corey Seager is the future at short (I think he ends up at third) then Tomas could certainly end up in Los Angeles.

Torsten’s Thoughts: Mariners. There are a few teams who are pushing hard for the Cuban slugger, including the Phillies so Shaun may be right on there. Personally I find Seattle to be a more attractive city, and a team with the pitching to compete immediately. Tomas could help finally fill the Mariners’ perpetual power void.

Dark Horse: Cardinals. He makes sense on a lot of levels here. The Cards are known to take the prudent approach so a 9 figure salary commitment might eliminate them, but still. I was also tempted to say the Red Sox here, but that would be if they trade Yoenes Cespedes, and as of this moment, that hasn’t happened.

The Guy: Victor Martinez

Overview: Martinez might have been the best pure hitter in all of baseball in 2014 despite being 35 years old. He set career highs in home runs, batting average, and OPS, and was an even bigger threat than the multi-time MVP Miguel Cabrera. Tigers fans were wondering who would step in following the departure of Prince Fielder last season, they may be asking who will step in with the departure of Victor Martinez this year.

Potential Suitors: Chicago White Sox, Detroit Tigers, Texas Rangers, New York Mets

Shaun’s Thoughts: Chicago White Sox. Not only would signing Victor away from a division rival be a huge perk for the White Sox, getting a power bat in the DH slot that could out-produce Paul Konerko and Adam Dunn with just a single roster spot is a necessity. Victor maybe one of the oldest impact players on the market, but that has never stopped the White Sox before.

Dark Horse: Pittsburgh Pirates. The Pirates need help at first base, and while Victor is primarily a DH, he can still play the position well enough. Adding a bat like Victor along with a few ancillary pieces could make the Pirates real contenders in the NL Central again.

Torsten’s Thoughts: Tigers. I personally think he was their most important offensive player in 2014, and that includes Miguel Cabrera. They will probably lose their best starting pitcher, but to lose their best hitter too? That would be a criminal mistake for a team who is a couple (or five) bullpen upgrades away from again being a World Series favorite.

Dark Horse: Royals. Yep. His age will drop his price tag a little and they will probably want a little more out of the DH spot than Billy Butler has given them. V Mart can also play a little first, and catch in a real pinch, so you don’t automatically lose him in National League parks. It’s unlikely this happens, but it’s on the radar.

The Guy: Nelson Cruz

Overview: Cruz has long been a formidable power bat, but he put up numbers greater than he ever had before in 2014. He launched an impressive 40 home runs this season on just 166 hits, so roughly one of every four hits left the ballpark. Playing both DH and outfield allowed him to stay fresh and healthy enough to play in 159 games, and should be in for a big paycheck this offserason.

Potential Suitors: Baltimore Orioles, Chicago White Sox, Seattle Mariners

Shaun’s Thoughts: Baltimore Orioles. The Orioles made some moves showing they are in win now mode last season, but losing Cruz would be a massive obstacle to overcome. So their number one priority this off-season needs to be re-signing him. The fact they extended him the qualifying offer also gives them a leg up in negotiations, but if they intend on getting him signed, they need to be willing to give him some years on the deal.

Dark Horse: St. Louis Cardinals. The Cards could really use a power bat that can play a corner spot in the outfield, and while Cruz is best fit to get days off from the field and see time as DH, if he goes to an NL team, a team like the Cardinals would be a great fit.

Torsten’s Thoughts: Orioles. Pretty much everything Shaun said. There are a lot of things that go into where a guy ends up. Cruz had a spectacularly successful “fresh start” in the relative anonymity of playing in Baltimore. He does carry the baggage of being a part of the Biogenesis scandal, and the reputation of being susceptible to nagging injuries, so don’t expect the market to be what it normally would for a player of his offensive acumen. On that note, how the @#$% does a guy who led Major League Baseball in home runs miss out on a Silver Slugger award?

Dark Horse: Phillies. Shaun already touched on their front office philosophies of recent times. Cruz is in his mid-30s, ill-equipped physically to play the outfield full-time, but hey, he just led MLB in home runs. Would you really be that surprised if the Phillies suddenly offered him a six year deal for $115 million? Be honest.

The Guy: John Lester, SP

Overview: The premier starting pitcher on the market, Lester is a bona fide ace with a track record of success on the game’s biggest stage. He was traded by the Red Sox before the deadline last season for Oakland slugger Yoenes Cespedes. He pitched well down the stretch, but Oakland still limped across the finish line before ultimately losing to Kansas City in the Wild Card play-in game.

Potential Suitors: Red Sox, Cubs, Dodgers, Yankees,

Torsten’s Thoughts: Red Sox. I do like conspiracy theories, but this isn’t one of those. I think Lester has always wanted to be in Boston for the duration of his career. It just makes sense to me that he would want to go back to the team he built his career with, and won championships with. From a team perspective, the Sox have the money bring him back, and with as popular as Lester is with the fans, it would be a public relations failure if they didn’t at least give it a very public effort. If the team does ultimately balk at Lester’s asking price, the next logical stop could be Chicago and Theo Epstein.

Dark Horse: Angels. Hey, it wouldn’t be the first time the Halos have come out of nowhere to snap up the biggest free agent on the market. And if there’s something that’s holding the team back from being as good as it could, it’s a rotation that isn’t as deep as some other contending teams.

Shaun’s Thoughts: Chicago Cubs. I said it right after Lester was traded by the Red Sox, he is headed to Chicago to reunite with Theo Epstein. The Cubs need at least one front end starter along with a mid-rotation arm. Their top priority has to be Lester, and I doubt they get out-bid on him.

Dark Horse: Texas Rangers. The Rangers are my dark horse to be big players this off-season. They need a lot of help at several positions, and a second elite arm to pair with Yu Darvish would be a great move for them.

The Guy: Pablo Sandoval, 3B

Overview: The big fella seems to save his best performances for the biggest stages. His weight is a perpetual concern, rightfully so, and may be a deterrent for teams looking to throw an obscene amount of money at one of the top available hitters on the market. Switch hitters with pop don’t grow on trees though, and for a fat dude he defends third base competently. Another thing working against him is the surprising amount of talented young third basemen out there right now. Donaldson, Arenado, Rendon and Carpenter’s teams won’t be looking to upgrade. Dependable vets Adrian Beltre, David Wright, and Juan Uribe are still holding down their respective forts. Chase Headley is out there too for what’s likely to be a considerably smaller commitment than Panda. And depending on who you ask, Hanley Ramirez may move to the hot corner too this off-season.

Potential Suitors: Giants and Red Sox

Torsten’s Thoughts: Giants. I can’t see any way that Panda leaves the bay. He’s immensely popular in San Francisco and has won multiple championships. I would be shocked if he went anywhere else. That said, the thought of Panda flicking doubles off the Green Monster from the left side of the plate all year is probably giving the Red Sox’ management team wet dreams. Expect them to make a serious offer for the big guy to join Xander Bogaerts on the left side of their infield.

Dark Horse: Padres. Look at that pitching staff. This team is ready to contend. They just need to figure out a way to score some runs. Goodness knows they have some payroll flexibility and the laid back San Diego lifestyle could hold some appeal to the Panda.

Shaun’s Thoughts: Boston Red Sox. Will Middlebrooks is simply not cutting it at third, and Xander Bogaerts looks like he will stick at short, so the Red Sox need help at third. One potential filler is Garin Cecchini, but there are still plenty of questions as to whether or not he can stick at the position. A strong bat in the middle of the order is the second biggest need for the Red Sox, behind top end starter, and the Panda would be a great fit. The only snag I could see preventing this from happening is the Red Sox reluctance to give out long term contracts, especially to a player who has weight issues in the past.

Dark Horse: Seattle Mariners. The positional need isn’t there, but the need for a right handed power bat certainly is. The Mariners have not been shy about giving big contracts after singing Robinson Cano last season, this could be the type of move needed to compete in what should be a very stron AL West next season.

The Guy: Russell Martin, C

Overview: If there was ever a great year to be a free agent catcher, this is it. Especially if you’re a guy who just revived his career with his best season over half a decade. Martin will likely command at least 4 years and 60 million on the open market, drastically reducing his suitors. The question is, who is he? Is the guy who fancied himself a power hitter and tried to hit every pitch he saw into the stratosphere? Or is he the guy who shortened his swing and got on base at a career-high clip of over 40% and drastically reduced his strike out rate last season? Either way, he’s a competent defender and catcher is shallow this year, so his agent shouldn’t stray too far from his telephone.

Potential Suitors: Pirates, Cubs, Yankees, Dodgers, Rangers

Torsten’s Thoughts: Pirates. The interwebs are blowing up with Martin to the Cubbies rumors, and they will pursue him aggressively. I think the Pirates, however, will essentially write him a blank check. Oh, you want 70 million instead of 60? 5 years instead of four? The bottom line is this, the Pirates are a team on the rise with young pitching studs like Gerrit Cole and Jameson Taillon. They’ll want a veteran catcher to shepherd those guys to stardom. The Cubbies, while on the rise too, gave Edwin Jackson and his 6.33 ERA 27 starts last season. Dodgers new VP of Everything, Andrew Friedman will want to make a splash too, but will probably make do with the adequate AJ Ellis and wait for guys like Matt Wieters and Sal Perez to become to expensive for their current small market homes.

Dark Horse: Braves. If I had Evan Gattis and wanted to preserve his mammoth power for as long as possible, I’d be looking for ways to move him out from behind the plate. Just sayin. The appeal of catching guys like Julio Teheran and Craig Kimbrel can’t be discounted either.

Shaun’s Thoughts: Los Angeles Dodgers. Despite Torsten’s man crush on A.J. Ellis, catcher is a massive need for the Dodgers. It would also be a great full-circle story for Martin to finish up his career with the team that he broke through with. Torsten mentions the appeal of catching Teheran and Kimbrel in Atlanta, but last I checked the Dodgers have a decent pitcher or two.

Dark Horse: Tampa Bay Rays. The Rays have been purely awful in the draft of the past handful of years, so what is the big deal in giving up a first round pick they would likely screw up anyway? They don’t have the money to land Martin, but he would be a great fit there, and he has had some success himself in the AL East.

The Guy: Hanley Ramirez, SS (3B?) (LF??) (DH?????)

Overview: When he’s healthy and motivated, Hanley Ramirez is the best offensive player in baseball. He’s nearly impossible to fool, his ungodly bat speed means you can’t throw it past him, power to all fields, and runs well enough to stretch singles into doubles and steal 20+ bases. Problem is, he’s rarely healthy and motivated at the same time, and he might be the worst defensive shortstop in baseball. But oh heavens. That bat…

Potential Suitors: Dodgers, Yankees

Torsten’s Thoughts: Yankees. Sure, they gave him a qualifying offer but the Dodgers are looking to reduce their payroll and the Yankees…well, they’re the Yankees and they have a spot for him. Ok, here’s the deal. In 2013, Ramirez found new life with the Dodgers. The brain trust of Don Mattingly and Ned Colletti led him to believe he had a long-term future with the Dodgers. They’d get an extension done with him, with the understanding that when his range further deteriorated, he’d move to third full time. And Hanley was ok with that, provided they didn’t bounce him back and forth. Not only that, he defended shortstop far more adequately than anticipated. Now, the problem with the braintrust of Mattingly and Colletti is, they’re circular firing squad. You’d be hard-pressed to find a more inept manager than Mattingly in any sport anywhere, and Colletti is little more than a puppet. So when things didn’t get done, Ramirez became disenchanted. Think he wants to stay? I doubt it.

Dark Horse: Mets. If Hanley is willing to accept a move to first base, they can shift Lucas Duda to right field full-time and suddenly, that’s a decent offense. And it’s New York, so there’s money there, and plus, I hear they have big apples.

Shaun’s Thoughts: New York Yankees. The Yankees need someone to step in for the retired Derek Jeter, and Hanley is a big enough name to fit the bill. If the Yankees are able to find someone else to play short, they could also move Hanley to third and block the headache that is A-Rod. The Yankees have never been shy about giving out big contracts, and while you may here more about a cap on their payroll again, don’t believe a word they say.

Dark Horse: San Francisco Giants. They are likely to lose a third baseman with Sandoval on the market, and Hanley has already come out and said he would be willing to change positions if he needs to. The Giants would like to bring the Panda back, but with his weight concerns, they might go with a more sure thing in Hanley instead.

The Guy: David Robertson

Overview: Quietly, Robertson has been one of the American League’s best relief pitchers for the last six or seven years. And when he was tasked with the duty to take over for the greatest closer that ever lived, he didn’t wilt under the pressure. In fact, he thrived. So let’s summarize. His numbers are consistently good so his success is not a fluke. Successfully inherited closer role from Mariano Rivera and didn’t crack under the pressure. Throws 100 with an elite strike out rate. What’s not to like?

Potential Suitors: Yankees, Dodgers, Tigers, Nationals

Torsten’s Thoughts: Yankees. They made him a qualifying offer. 15.3 million is obscene for a reliever, but the Yanks are prepared to pay him that. The Dodgers and Tigers, two World Series contending teams undone by catastrophically bad bullpens, would probably slaughter children to get him in their pens too, but once you’ve experienced success in New York, there’s little like it. It’s likely Robertson has dreams about Yankees fans revering him fifteen years from now the way they do Mariano.

Dark Horse: Orioles. Yeah, they already have a great pen. But Zach Britton wasn’t confidence-inspiring in the post-season, and they are built to be long-term postseason participants. Just think, they closed out their season without Chris Davis and Manny Machado, and barely had Matt Wieters for any of it. Yeah, they’re here to stay while the Yankees face an uphill climb to get back.

Shaun’s Thoughts: Detroit Tigers. The Tigers are so desperate to get a quality bullpen, they just may jump on the Robertson despite the qualifying offer attached to him. Now, maybe they have learned from their recent past that simply signing or trading for the biggest names won’t do the trick when it comes to building a strong bullpen, but like I said, they are desperate.

Dark Horse: Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. The Angels were bounced from the playoffs by a team that dominated with elite late inning arms, and they have struggled in the pen for a while. Robertson could either fit in at closer or as a set-up guy.

Torsten’s Steal of Free Agency: Mike Morse signs a one-year 8 million dollar deal in St. Louis. If that team is missing anything, it’s power. I feel dirty for even writing this, but it has to be said. The devastating death of Oscar Taveras left a hole in MLB’s hearts, but it also left a hole in the Cardinals’ line-up. It sucks to put it in these terms, but the kid was a stud, and his projected production from right field will have to be replaced somehow.

Shaun’s Steal of Free Agency: Justin Masterson signs a three year deal with the Pittsburgh Pirates. A three year deal would leave Masterson still 32-years old when he hits the market again, and the Pirates feel very good about their ability to resurrect pitching careers, just look at Francisco Liriano.

Fantasy Smear Campaign: Week 2

What a soap opera this has become. Roger Goodell might lose is job, or he might not. Someone at the NFL did possess and see a copy of “the video.” And Ray Rice is a violent felon who should be in prison. And these, abhorrent, heartbreaking, and surreal as they may be, are the facts. So help me, that’s all I’m going to say on that because my opinion doesn’t matter. Your opinion doesn’t matter. Nor does Keith Olbermann’s or any of the talking heads on AM radio, or ESPN, or anyone in the media. What’s happened has happened, shocking us in the process, and what will happen will happen, probably not shocking anyone.

Moving on to this week in fantasy, if you got these guys, you’re starting them.

QB: Carson Palmer – Obviously not over, say, Drew Brees. But if you snagged him because your first guy is RG3, or maybe even Nick Foles, the match up is right for a repeat of his 300 yard, 2 TD game this past Monday night.

RB: CJ Spiller – They can’t keep criminally misusing him in Buffalo, can they? The Miami defense looked pretty stout against the Patriots in Week 1, but if the Bills get Spiller the ball in space, he can’t be stopped.

RB: Terrance West – Ben Tate is, surprise surpise, out for a few weeks. West is practically a lock for a score against a Ravens defense that isn’t stout. He’s a solid flex play at least.

WR: Torrey Smith – Eventually, you’d figure Flacco would get the ball in the hands of his most dynamic receiver, one way or the other. I’m feeling over a hundred yards with a long score against Pittsburgh on Thursday. Take it to the bank. Well, maybe not the bank…maybe one of those shady check cashing places that doesn’t ask for ID.

WR: Victor Cruz – Yes, Eli Manning is terrible. But the Arizona defense has taken yet another hit with the loss of John Abraham. Even Arizona’s talented secondary won’t be able to stay on the Giant receivers for as long as it will take the depleted pass rush to put any pressure on Eli.

TE: Dude, I don’t know. I already pimped Zach Ertz last week. If you have one of the top guys, you’re going to play them anyway. Atlanta looks committed to including Levine Toilolo in the offensive plans, he may be worth a look if you’re the poor sap who just lost Tyler Eifert for a couple of months.

D: Rams – Don’t get me wrong, Tampa will probably win this one going away, but it won’t be 38-3 or anything like that. It will probably be something like 23 – 9, with one touchdown coming on defense. But the Rams will probably sack McCown a few times and maybe recover a fumble. They’re worth a look if you are seeking double digit point potential and are taking the streaming approach.

If you got these guys, you’re better off sitting them.

QB: Russell Wilson – Don’t misunderstand, Wilson is great. I just don’t see a big game in the cards for him against a defense that won’t be able to stop Beastmode, and his understudy Robert Turbin. Why throw?

RB: Zac Stacy – I’m still a believer in the kid, but until the Rams prove they can throw with Shaun Hill or Austin Davis, they’ll be facing 8 man fronts. That’s something a crappy offensive line is gonna have trouble with.

RB: Joique Bell – Love this kid too, but Carolina is tough against the run, and only one target for him in the passing game in week 1. Keep him around, just not in the line up this week.

WR: Brian Quick – 7 catches for 99 yards in week one had quite a few people, yours truly included, scrambling for him on the waiver wire. He’ll need to prove it wasn’t a fluke though, before he finds himself in my line up.

WR: Dwayne Bowe – Yeah, KC is going to have to throw a lot. But it’s gonna be a ton of dump offs to Jamal Charles, and maybe Travis Kelce. DAMMIT, I could have used him for my TE!

TE: Jared Cook – Don’t get fancy. He hasn’t had a good game since week one last season. He’ll have one this season… just nobody knows when, and it’s not worth having him in your lineup waiting for it to happen.

That about does it for Week 2’s fantasy smear campaign. Good luck all.

Fantasy Smear Campaign: Week 1

It’s week 1. Enjoy it, for this will probably be the week in which your decisions will be the easiest. No random player has come out of nowhere yet with a huge game (think Kevin Ogletree) to make you second guess everything you ever knew about setting your fantasy line up. There also aren’t too many game-time decisions for key players as the toll of a long season isn’t yet reflected on injury lists. The bye weeks are still a month away. Basically, you’re starting the guys you drafted the highest.

However, even in week 1, you may be having an internal conflict over a flex spot, to the tune of “which of these borderline guys do I slot in there?” And if you’re not having one of those conflicts, keep reading anyway. Because we’re funny.

If you got him, start him.

RB – Frank Gore: Quick, what do Carlos Hyde, Kendall Hunter, Marcus Lattimore, and LaMichael James have in common? They’re all currently or in the recent pass have been the trendy guy to take over at running back in San Francisco when the aging Gore finally starts acting like most backs in their 30s. It’s been predicted for a couple of seasons now, which is why he was probably available way later in your draft than you anticipated, but it hasn’t happened. And it won’t happen this week against the horrid Cowboys defense either. The Niners will probably be up huge at halftime so he may not play much in the second half in an effort to preserve his body. But two first-half scores are a real possibility.

RB – Toby Gerhart: I was surprised to find a lot of people taking a wait and see approach with Adrian Peterson’s former understudy, wanting to see him have a good game or two before trusting him with a spot in their lineup. I understand that, but in addition to being huge and deceptively mobile for someone with said hugeness, he’s an excellent pass-catcher out of the backfield. And Jacksonville may very well be down by three or four scores at half time, meaning they’re gonna throw it. In addition to 60-75 potential rushing yards, I wouldn’t be shocked to see Gerhart with as many as 8 catches for a similar yard total.

WR – Golden Tate: A trendy breakout pick this season as Calvin Johnson’s partner in Detroit, I have my reservations. That said, they have the Giants week 1, and a weak secondary means they may be triple covering Megatron, leaving single coverage and acres of space for Tate. You wouldn’t start him over, say, Keenan Allen, but you might consider it if it’s between him and Cecil Shorts.

TE – Zach Ertz: All on in this guy. If you look at his numbers from his rookie year, they seem ok at first blush. Now consider the meager snap total he played to accumulate those numbers. He won’t have Jimmy Graham numbers when it’s said and done, but he’ll be in the neighborhood of 900 yards and 8 scores.

If you got him, sit him.

RB – LeGarrette Blount: The aptly named bruiser in Pittsburgh’s backfield will probably pile up some gaudy touchdown numbers this year, but it won’t happen in week 1 against Cleveland’s underrated (some would go so far as to say excellent) defense.

RB – Trent Richardson: This is not because I’m buying into the “OMFG, Cleveland was right about this guy!!! He SUCKS!!!” nonsense that’s flying around. This is because it’s going to be very tough to run the ball on Denver. He’ll be a fine flex play in many weeks, this just ain’t one of them.

WR – Kenny Britt: As a Rams fan, I was greedily rubbing my hands together at the prospect of snagging him late in all my drafts. Then Sam Bradford, with whom he’d developed huge chemistry, went down. Not that I think Shaun Hill is terrible, but Britt’s value is as a downfield threat, mitigating his production with Hill under center. Beside, St. Louis will be running the ball against Minnesota anyway.

TE – Austin Sefarian-Jenkins: See the description for Toby Gerhart. A lot is being made of this guy being a red-zone target. Ok, but it may be worth remembering that Vincent Jackson and Mike Evans are both HUGE, and therefore also red-zone targets already… If you have Jenkins, he’s probably not the only TE on your roster. Start the other guy.

I always enjoy doing a deep sleeper projection too, but those hardly should apply in week one. But let’s say you massively neglected wide receiver in your draft, and two of your top options are Wes Welker and Dwayne Bowe. Or in an equally unlikely scenario, you forgot that wide receiver was an actual position in your league, and now need to scrounge the waiver wire before kick off. Consider Cody Latimer, who quietly seems to have edged in front of Andre Caldwell on the depth chart in Denver. And with Welker’s suspension, it’s a decent bet he’ll be on the field.

Lastly, if you’re streaming defenses, you may consider the Bears for this week only. They project to be pretty bad, but Buffalo’s offense has looked abysmal in the pre-season, and they’ll be playing in Chicago.

That’s pretty much all! Knowing us, we’ll probably oversleep a week or two but we plan to run this feature every week, so check back for winning fantasy advice often!

Why The NFL Can No Longer Be Taken Seriously

“I am very disappointed that the NFL and its hearing office didn’t exercise better judgment in my case.”

Those words were taken directly from Cleveland Browns wide receiver Josh Gordon’s statement after arbitrator Harold Henderson upheld Gordon’s season-long suspension for violating the league’s substance abuse policy.

Let’s just get this out of the way. Gordon is not completely a victim here. He is the idiot that knew exactly the precarious situation he was in when it comes to what goes into his body, and who he surrounds himself with. But in this case, he has every right to feel hard done by.

This also only partly has to do with the two game suspension that Ray Rice got for brutally beating his now wife on camera. It also only partly has to do with the ludicrous four game suspension Matt Prater got for allegedly consuming beer in the privacy and safety of his own living room. And it only partly has to do with the fact that Ndmukong Suh has somehow not been banned for life yet despite repeatedly and deliberately trying to cause life-altering harm to opposing quarterbacks with hits egregiously outside of what is allowed by NFL rules.

You really only have to look at the fact that after Gordon’s suspension for the 2014 season has been completed, he can “apply for reinstatement.” Really?

How hard would it have been to say, “The NFL disciplinary morons, er, powers that be have decided to suspend Josh Gordon for all regular season and playoff games in the coming NFL season. After this suspension has been completed, provided that Mr. Gordon has not found himself in any more trouble with the law, and has strictly observed the NFL’s code of conduct to the same standard that is expected of all its players and employees, he will be able to resume playing professionally in the NFL. If Mr. Gordon fails to avoid legal trouble or otherwise transgresses the code of conduct, additional discipline may be applied.” Or something like that, anyway.

You may agree with my statement, you may wholly disagree with it. You may be able to nitipick some grammar, or perhaps find some other kind of flaw. But I intentionally battered through it in less than a minute, without a law degree for that matter, to prove a point. It took the league four months to decide what to do with Gordon. That’s a really long time to have something hanging over a young man’s head, not to mention his entire team that was depending heavily on his contributions. Four months. And the best they could do was say, “hey, after this year is up, feel free to reapply and if our confederacy of dunces decides you are worthy, maybe we’ll let you back into our club.”

I have to commend Gordon on one thing. Restraint. And while I’m sure he was coached through his statement, mine would only have contained two words, the second of which being “you.”

This is a multi-billion dollar brand, people. You’d think they could get their act together, especially in the embarrassing wake of them screwing up the concussion issue so badly. But no, they truly remain the circular firing squad they’ve been for all recent memory. Two games. Four games. 16 games. It doesn’t matter. They don’t have a clue.

The LeBron James Decision and Why I Don’t Care

Spoiler alert. It’s NOT because I generally can’t stand basketball.

I had an epiphany during this World Cup. There are a lot of people I know and respect that just don’t give a sh*t about soccer. They couldn’t care less. They wouldn’t be able to tell you a damn thing about the game, any of its players, or why it was borderline remarkable that the United States made it out of the group of death.

But they still ask me, how’s the U.S. doing? Are you enjoying the games? Germany beat Brazil 7-1…that’s good, right? Why do they ask me? Because I care. This one month out of every four years is among the most exciting in my life. I sleep less. I take time off of my day job to watch games. Four years ago when it was in South Africa, I got up at ungodly hours to see games live. They know it matters to me.

My buddy, a huge basketball fan, comes up to me at work today and says, “Dude, LeBron is going back to Cleveland! How crazy is that!?” My initial thought was, “Of all people who might actually give a sh*t about what player is going where, you thought I was a good candidate?” But then it hit me. Why would I be an ass when so many people have been the exact opposite to me, inquiring as to my thoughts about the World Cup because they knew I cared about it and enjoy talking about it. So I made the resolution, I will no longer rudely dismiss conversations about basketball. Let’s not get crazy, I’m not going to start enjoying watching the game. But the least I can do for a fellow sports fan is engage them in a conversation if that’s what they want.

So my response was, “Hm. I guess I wouldn’t have expected that. Why do you think he’s going back to the Cavs? Are they expected to be better than the Heat next year?” He says, “No! He just wants to go play in his hometown. He wants to make it up to the people of Cleveland for ditching them four years ago.”

The rest of the conversation lasted about seven minutes, and then we got back to work. But I thought about it. Is he really going home to make it up to the people of Cleveland? I did read the Sports Illustrated letter. It’s classy and articulate. I’m sure it was ghost written for him, or at least he was coached through it. But apart from the douchy way James left Cleveland four years ago, he is a pretty classy guy. He doesn’t get in trouble with the law. He doesn’t do drugs. He’s a family man. As far as larger-than-life athletes go, he’s a guy who could definitely fall into the “likeable” category. But let’s be real here. He is a professional athlete, and a mercenary. He’s made plenty of money, but with no shortage of suitors who will pay him the maximum amount of money allowable under the collective bargaining agreement, he’ll go where he has the best chance to win.

Is Cleveland more likely to win next year than Miami? You bet your bottom dollar they are. DeWayne Wade is a shell of his former self. Injuries have taken their toll. The high-impact style of the former superstar has robbed him of his explosiveness. Sure, he could still be a quality sixth man for a contender. Come off the bench, play 25 minutes or so, and contribute significantly. Chris Bosh is still in his prime, though nearing the end of it, and wants to cash in. Can you blame him? Ray Allen, who Miami brought in for his deadly three point shooting and to be kind of a fourth musketeer to the “Big Three” is another year older. Sure, they made it to the finals, but largely on the back of James’ excellence and a variety of factors would indicate they are not on the ascension, they’re on a decline.

Meanwhile, Cleveland has Kyrie Irving, a mega-stud young point guard. They just drafted Andrew Wiggins. They have the cap room to chase another star player next year such as Minnesota’s Kevin Love, if they don’t work some kind of sign and trade deal for him earlier than that. And what do you have? Another big three with a fourth musketeer.

Sure, Ohio is home to James. That makes Cleveland appealing. But let’s call it what it is. He’s going to a team where he thinks he has a better chance to win than the one where he was. The fact that Cleveland is where he started is a coincidence. Had any other team had the first overall pick in the draft the year he made himself eligible, they would have taken him too. He could have started in Charlotte, or Atlanta, or with the Clippers. Any number of teams. It happened to be a team in his home state. So that’s cool and all, but is there any real evidence that James was a Cavaliers fan growing up? Are there any pictures of him as a youngster sporting a Craig Ehlo or Brad Daugherty jersey? Maybe.

ESPN/Grantland’s Bill Simmons, an excellent and intelligent writer, describes here James’ performance in Game 6 of this year’s NBA Finals, petulantly not shooting and passing to teammates in a fashion that says, “this is the team you put around me,” or something like that. What exactly was wrong with the damn team they put around him? They made it to the CHAMPIONSHIP FINALS! They just happened to lose to a better team, or at the very least, one that played better for those six games.

There’s a bunch of other stuff in the article about James being a genius, or something like that. It’s entertaining to read, but the reality is, he’s a 6 foot 9, 270 something pound mega athlete who is physically superior to nearly everyone who attempts to defend him. So opposing defenses throw multiple defenders at him, leaving teammates open. I hardly think it takes genius to pass to an open teammate when three defenders are focused on you. It’s a statistical certainty that at least half of your teammates on the floor at that point are uncovered. Anyway, that’s just my opinion. It’s still a good read.

Anyway, this is why I don’t care. It’s all crap. James is used to Ohio and likes it there, apparently. The team is in a position where it can field a competitive squad for years to come. They can pay him the maximum amount of money allowed by a team he wasn’t already on the previous season. No more, no less. Does that make him a bad person, taking the situation that is quite simply best for him and his family, and nobody else? Of course not. Superstar players across all sports go to the highest bidder all the time. The only thing fans should be concerned with is that the player gives 100 percent on the court or field while he is on that team. Sure, it’s romantic to think there’s a sense of loyalty, a la George Brett or the late Tony Gwynn. But more realistically, just look at all the players who have taken the money to go to the Yankees, or Dodgers, or Patriots, or Broncos, or Manchester United and Bayern Munich, the list goes on.

Again, James is not a bad person for doing this. We all do what’s best for us and ours. I like my job quite a bit, but if someone offered me a maximum salary of some sort, say for argument’s sake double what I make now, to work elsewhere, I’d take it, so I could afford the house my wife and I live in, and to provide a more comfortable life for us and our future children. That makes sense, right?

And this is why I don’t care. All the notions being invented out there that his move “back” to Cleveland is anything other than a man doing what’s best for him and his are fantasy. There is no drive to make anything up to the fans that burned his jersey upon his departure, or the owner that eviscerated him in a public letter. If he did it for half of the maximum contract, I might buy it. Might.

A Look Back at the U.S. World Cup Performance

Well, as heartbreaking as today’s loss to Belgium in the round of 16 was, it’s important to remember that few if any expected the USMNT to progress from the group stage. After all, they had Germany, Portugal, and old nemesis Ghana to deal with. But, lo and behold, they accomplished that feat. So that’s a win. Then they take on a beatable Belgium team in the first knockout stage match, and appear content to do little apart from defend and hope to get lucky on a counter attack until they were down two goals in the final minutes of the added 30. So that’s…well, a loss in more ways than one. Don’t get me wrong, this Belgium squad is a dangerous combination of fast, skilled, and huge, reasons why they were a popular dark horse pick to win the whole tournament. I have to laugh there, actually. Looking at it, how unheralded can a team with English Premier League stars, Eden Hazard, Vincent Kompany, and Marouane Fellaini be? Everton’s Kevin Mirallas isn’t a slouch either, and we haven’t even gotten to Kevin DeBruyne, the best player on the field not named Tim Howard just a few hours ago. But, while they won all three of their group stage matches, the competition was weak and their play looked, at times, uninspired. So there was hope for the U.S. It turned out to be hope unfulfilled, but nevertheless, optimism abounds for the future. Let’s take a look at why some of that optimism is certainly warranted, and why some of it should be taken with a grain of salt.

The Good

Wow, there appears to be some phenomenal young talent on this U.S. team. Moreover, they don’t seem intimidated in the least by playing on the world’s biggest stage. DeAndre Yedlin and Fabian Johnson look like the real deal, and are only beginning to scratch the surface of their potential. Julian Green, in the few minutes he was given, scored a spectacular goal to give the U.S. late hope against Belgium.

In addition, Matt Besler looks like a future star in defense. No disrespect to a solid MLS Sporting Kansas City side, but he won’t be there for long. And at age 27, he’s absolutely young enough to anchor the U.S. defense for the next four years as they work toward their next qualification. Both Geoff Cameron and Omar Gonzalez acquitted themselves well as Besler’s partner in the middle, and don’t forget Ghana match hero John Brooks, another youngster. The future of the U.S. central defense is very bright.

And now, for a nice helping of crow for THIS critic. I’ve said before that I have never been the biggest Tim Howard fan. I’ve felt for years he was a decent but overrated keeper, and that the U.S. could do better. And while he played pretty well in the group stage, his performance against Belgium was the stuff of legend, and my heart broke for him as he wept in his post-game interview. I can honestly say, no individual performance has ever been better for the USMNT. No individual has ever left more on the field than Howard this last game. The media is often quick to call a semi-routine save spectacular or incredible, but no fewer than six of Howard’s 16 saves were truly remarkable. And no keeper in the world would have stopped either of the two Belgium goals. My hat is off, sir. Well done.

The Bad

What alien abducted Michael Bradley and put on his jersey? Considered to be one of the best players on the team, he was terrible. His play improved slightly against Germany and Belgium, as he managed to sprinkle a few good passes in with his constant give-aways in bad areas, but all in all, he was historically bad. I scratched my head after he decided in his mid 20s to join MLS side Toronto, after featuring prominently (and performing well) for noteworthy European sides, Heerenvee, Borussia Moenchen Gladbach, Chievo and Roma. But at this point, it appears that well before his prime should even be hit, he can no longer compete at the highest level. He shouldn’t be considered for the shirt in the future, unless he experiences a miraculous turn-around.

Three of the better performers for the U.S. this World Cup were Jermaine Jones, Howard, and Kyle Beckerman. Why is this bad? Because the youngest age of this threesome is 32. It’s highly unlikely any of them will be wearing the U.S. shirt in four years. You can add Clint Dempsey to this list too. Deuce may not always have been brilliant, but his workrate never wavered, and he scored two huge goals. He’s also 32, and unlikely to be around in four years.

For all the credit coach Jurgen Klinsmann is getting for the team making it through the group stage, there are some alarming questions. How did he stick with Bradley for every minute of the tournament with the talented Mix Diskerud sitting on the bench? Were the apparent U.S. tactics of defending, defending, and then more defending his call? We saw that when things got desperate, this team could pose a real threat offensively. Anyone who saw the last ten minutes of the Belgium game can see that. Of course, it’s never that simple. The Belgians, with a two goal lead, decided to sit back. But still. Lastly, how was Beckerman on the bench for the last game? He was undeniably solid for every minute of the group stage, and then he’s not in the line up for the knock out game? It’s just weird, man. Right?

And lastly, where are the strikers of the future? We saw that the team had no suitable replacement for Jozy Altidore as a featured striker. The truly scary thing is, Altidore isn’t even that good. He’s not bad, and when he goes on a hot streak he can score goals in heaps, but he’s not star level. Maybe Aron Johansson will continue to improve, and maybe we’ll see an emergence from Juan Agudelo at some point, but for all the optimism the other positions portend, the attackers leave uncertainty.

Fearless Forecast for 2018

Are you ready for this? I think the U.S. will earn a world ranking high enough by the time the 2018 World Cup groups are drawn that they’ll earn a seed. That doesn’t mean they won’t get another group of death, so to speak, but they’ll end up in no worse of a group situation than they were in this year, and they’ll make it out of the group stage again. And this time, they’ll win a knock out stage game. Maybe two. But no more than that. Hey, progress!

Hey, Torsten, they will have to qualify before that happens! I know. And they will. It won’t be without a nervy moment or two, but they’ll get there.

Player to Watch for the Future

Alejandro Bedoya. Nobody works harder and nobody runs more. Part of this is because his first touch is so bad that he’s chasing his own mistakes a lot of the time. But, that said, his commitment defensively was impressive, and he would be a candidate to step into the holding midfielder role sure to be vacated before long by Jones and Beckerman. At 27, he’s still young enough to refine his game.

Did I miss anything? Let us know in the comments. Thank you for reading.