Month: November 2013

Toronto Blue Jays 2013/14 Offseason Preview

Strengths: Power. These guys sure can slug. Bautista. Encarnacion. Lind. Rasmus. Lawrie. Arencibia. Even Jose Reyes, way better known for his rocket speed, has some pop.  Few line ups, if any, feature 8 guys in it at any given time that can turn the game on its head with a long ball. Very quietly, this team has a pretty good bullpen too, featuring quality arms Casey Janssen, Steve Delabar, and Brett Cecil.

 

Weaknesses: Decline and durability. Brett Lawrie and Jose Reyes are five tool players, but have shown an alarming propensity to get hurt. The incredible Jose Bautista has struggled to stay on the field the last couple of years. Brendan Morrow and his Cy Young stuff can’t put a full season together. You just can’t have that amount of star power in the infirmary and expect to contend. Especially when guys like Mark Buehrle, for years a front of the rotation guy, are starting to noticeably decline, and former Cy Young winner R.A. Dickey’s ERA creeps up over four. It’s like the ugly person at the club who dances really well. They look good from afar, but are far from good.

 

Off-Season Needs: Blow up the staff. No, they’re not terrible, like Houston Astros terrible. They’re serviceable, but serviceable doesn’t get it done if you want to contend. You may have to wait until the trading deadline approaches, and contenders are willing to overpay for veteran leadership to pull this off. But trade Buehrle. Trade Dickey, who you can get a king’s ransom for at his affordable salary. You can also trade a veteran bat like either Bautista or Encarnacion (or both???) and get some front end prospects, pay up for the best free agent pitcher on the market in the 2014/15 offseason, and now you’re working on a core with real potential.

 

2014 Outlook: Not good. They finished 74-88 last year. They might improve on that slightly simply by the virtue that I see every other team in the AL East, including the champion Bo Sox, having slight to significant regression (I’m looking at you, Baltimore). But they won’t finish above .500. No chance.

Baltimore Orioles 2013/14 Off-Season Preview

Strengths:  Offense.  The Baltimore Orioles have a very solid lineup.  Assuming Manny Machado is back for opening day, the left side of the Orioles infield is second to none.  I don’t think Chris Davis was a fluke, he won’t have a season quite like this past one, but he is a legit power hitter moving forward.  Jonathan Schoop is a young second baseman that should make an impact at some point next season, while Matt Weiters is an above average catcher and Adam Jones is a well above average center fielder.

Weaknesses:  The most glaring weakness is top level starting pitching.  In fact, they could use mid-level starting pitching.  In a division that has the likes of David Price (for now), CC Sabathia, Jon Lester, and R.A. Dickey at the top of rotations, projecting out an opening day starter of Miguel Gonzalez or Chris Tillman don’t exactly leave anyone shaking in their boots.

Off-Season Needs: Beyond the desperate need for starting pitching, there are two glaring needs for the Orioles.  Nick Markakis is still a suitable right fielder, but left field could use a real upgrade and the DH spot is painfully weak for the O’s.  Kendrys Morales would be a natural fit at DH, but considering he was offered a qualifying offer from the Mariners and signing him would cost the Orioles a first round pick, they may be best served resigning Nate McClouth and Mike Morse rather than dropping big money and a draft pick on Morales.

2014 Projection:  I am a big fan of what the Orioles have done the past two years, but I see a dip in production in 2014.  They could easily finish fourth in the division.  They have the talent to finish around .500, but the lack of top end starting pitching and the lack of impact bats at positions of need for the Orioles leaves the upside of the team a bit tempered.

You can follow Shaun Kernahan on twitter @shaunkernahan, add him to your network on Google, and like Shaun on Facebook.

 

Boston Red Sox 2013/14 Off-season Preview

Strengths: Well, they’re the defending champs, right? In addition to that, they have excellent starting pitching and a well-balanced offense that knows how to use the ballpark that it plays in. From a front office perspective, GM Ben Cherington is decisive and unafraid, as evidenced by the huge blockbuster trade from last season with the Dodgers that one could actually argue benefitted both teams.

Weaknesses: It’s hard to poke holes in the armor of the team that just won the World Series, but no team is perfect. So, the bullpen, apart from Koji Uehara, is a question mark. But mainly, a lot of key parts are going to be testing the market, if not departing for different colored pastures (doesn’t get greener than winning, does it??? Unless you use green in terms of money I suppose…). Is Jackie Bradley ready to inherit Jacoby Ellsbury’s spot in center if the latter departs? Assuming Stephen Drew is leaving, is Xander Bogaerts ready to handle shortstop? What if Mike Napoli leaves? Jarrod Saltalamacchia?

Off-Season Needs: Well, for one, fill some of the holes I just mentioned in the roster. More specifically, you need some veteran help on the left side of the infield if Bogaerts needs more seasoning or Will Middlebrooks regresses again. A right handed thumper to play first base part time wouldn’t hurt either. And an honest conversation with catcher David Ross, who has always been criminally underrated for what he brings to a team. If at age 36 he can take on more playing time than the 36 starts he got last year, losing Saltalamacchia won’t hurt as much.

2014 Outlook: Playoffs, most likely. I just can’t shake the notion that this team overachieved a little. Top to bottom, there are more talented rosters out there, and a repeat title is unlikely. More likely, in my opinion, is an ALCS loss to the Tigers in 6 games. Still, what a great two year run that would be just one year removed from a disaster.

New York Yankees 2013 Off-Season Preview

Strengths:  Payroll.  The Yankees have a ton of work to do this off-season and their ability to spend money will prove to be their biggest strength.  One surprise is the fact the greatest closer of all time retiring might not hurt the bullpen.  David Robertson can easily become one of the best closers in the game next year.

Weaknesses: There is no telling if Derek Jeter will be healthy enough to ever play again, Mark Teixeira spent the majority of 2013 on the DL, Alex Rodriguez could be suspended all year, Curtis Granderson is a free agent, as is Robinson Cano.  The Yankees farm system is not filled with many prospects that are ready to make an impact this coming year, so they will have to look elsewhere for help.

Off-Season Needs:  The first thing the Yankees need to do is secure Robinson Cano.  They only have three legit starting pitchers, so that is also a major need.  The team is getting very old, so signing some of the younger free agents, or trading for younger players is a must.  Unfortunately, the lone quality free agent on the market under the age of 30 is Jarrod Saltalamacchia, and catcher is one of the smallest concerns the Yankees have this off-season.  I would also be surprised if the Yankees don’t go all in on Japanese pitcher Masahiro Tanaka.

2014 Projection:  The Yankees are in a rough spot.  Their roster is old and injury prone, and they don’t have the youth coming up anytime soon.  2013 might have been the start of the Yankees loose spending catching up with them, and could very easily finish last in the AL East in 2014.

You can follow Shaun Kernahan on twitter @shaunkernahan, add him to your network on Google, and like Shaun on Facebook.

 

Miami Marlins 2013 Off-Season Preview

Strengths: The Marlins have some of baseball’s elite young big league talent, starting with Jose Fernandez, who figures to be a part of the Cy Young conversation for the next decade plus. Christian Yelich makes a nice outfield bookend to Giancarlo Stanton, assuming the latter isn’t traded in the very near future. Adeiny Hechvarria is interesting at shortstop too, and their farm system is considered to be pretty flush with legitimate prospects. To be filed under “Intriguing,” Marcell Ozuna showed flashes before fading in 2013 and pitcher Henderson Alvarez fired a no-hitter at the end of the season.

Weaknesses: Ownership and front office. Jeffrey Loria is a joke of an owner, if not a criminal for the way he swindled the people of Miami. He’s every bit as much of a joke for the way he undermined manager Mike Redmond when he essentially forced the manager to change his decision on who was to start the first game of a double header between the rookie, Fernandez, and veteran Ricky Nolasco. The fear I would have if I were a Marlins fan is that even if most of the top prospects currently in the system turn out to be good players, no free agent of any note will ever want to come to Miami. Just look at the way Loria is notorious for blowing up rosters. Also, just ask Jose Reyes and Mark Buehrle what they think of him. But I digress, he’s not the one who plays. So, apart from Steve Cishek, the bullpen is a mess. So is the rotation beyond Fernandez and Alvarez. And if you can’t get people out, you aren’t going to win many games.

Off-Season Needs: There are really too many to list, but with a team featuring so many young players, veteran leadership must be a priority. Logan Morrison, while entertaining on Twitter and affable otherwise, is probably not the guy to depend on for that. The Red Sox just won a World Series on the strength of character acquisitions like Shane Victorino and Mike Napoli. The Marlins are nowhere near a World Series, but picking up a couple of poor man’s versions of Victorino and Napoli to help show the young guys the proper way to play and respect the game will be valuable to their development. You know, so the front office can still trade them for a bag of batting practice balls and two cans of Skoal once they’re stars.

2014 Outlook: Ummmm, poor. Some of the young guys may start to develop and you may see a slight uptick in the win column, but triple digit losses are once again a very real possibility.

New York Mets 2013 Off-Season Preview

Strengths:  The future.  The Mets don’t have a ton of talent right now, especially with Matt Harvey out for the year with Tommy John Surgery, but there is plenty to be excited about.  Zach Wheeler is an excellent pitcher and Travis D’Arnaud will get his first full year behind the plate at the big league level.  Noah Syndergard will be up this coming year and he looks like he will be an excellent starter giving the Mets a great young rotation.  Brandon Nimmo is a couple years away, but he is a building block for the future in the outfield.  The Mets also seemed to find something in Eric Young Jr. late last season.

Weaknesses: The offense is going to struggle.  Juan Lagares is best served as a utility outfielder, not a starting center fielder.  Lucas Duda and Ike Davis have proven they are not the answer for the Mets, and while Josh Satin hit one of the hardest balls I have ever seen hit when I was in high school, he is a fringe average big leaguer.

Off-Season Needs: The Mets need to decide what time frame they are working on.  Are they going to be legit contenders in 2015 or 2016.  If they don’t expect to be contenders until 2016, they may want to consider shopping David Wright.  He has had health concerns, and is no lock to be an elite player come the time the Mets are contenders.  Getting a couple upper minor league offensive prospects could be a good move to ensure they don’t let a young and talented pitching staff be wasted away without a competitive offense.

2014 Projection:  The Mets will not be competitive in 2014, but that is ok.  Come 2015 they should be about a .500 team and could be a real contender by 2016.  Things are looking up, just not this coming year.

You can follow Shaun Kernahan on twitter @shaunkernahan, add him to your network on Google, and like Shaun on Facebook.

Philadelphia Phillies 2013 Off-Season Preview

Strengths: Dominic Brown has stepped up and looks like he could be a real star for the Philadelphia Phillies for years to come. There, the strengths have been covered. Ok, maybe a bit of a pessimistic look at the team. They do still have Cole Hamels and Cliff Lee at the top of the rotation and Jonathan Papelbon to close out games. It also looks like Darin Ruf will be able to be a solid bat.

Weaknesses: Roy Halladay is gone, Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley, and Ryan Howard aren’t the Rollins, Utley, and Howard that were at the heart of the team that dominated the NL East for years. They have no big league starters currently on their roster that are legit big league starters behind Lee and Hamels and their long time backstop Carlos Ruiz is a free agent. Cody Asche looked good late in the season at third, but he does not appear to be the future of at that position.

Off-Season Needs: The Phillies need to accept the fact they are no longer contenders and are in a rebuilding mode. Ryan Howard has a contract that makes him impossible to move, but if they can make a deal to add high minors prospects for Utley and/or Rollins, it is time to make those moves. Maikel Franco is the likely future at third base and could be on the big league roster this year, and Jesse Biddle is a legit pitcher who could break camp with the big league team, but those are really the only impact prospects that are anywhere close to big league ready. The Phillies need to add cheap veterans to fill roles this year, and make deals to bring in some young talent, otherwise they will keep the cellar warm for years.

2014 Projection: If the Phillies are not drafting in the top 10 in 2015 I will be shocked. They are the worst team in the East and they should lose 90 games in 2014.

You can follow Shaun Kernahan on twitter @shaunkernahan, add him to your network on Google, and like Shaun on Facebook.

Atlanta Braves 2013 Off-Season Preview

Strengths: Pitching, pitching, and more pitching. The Braves have an embarrassment of riches when it comes to arms. From the top of the rotation to the end of the bullpen, they were outstanding in 2013. And that was despite serious injuries to Tim Hudson, Johnny Venters, and Eric O’Flaherty. It may be a while before someone not named Clayton Kershaw wins a Cy Young Award, but that someone may be Julio Teheran. But, as they say, you need to score runs to win (not sure if they really say that, but it makes sense if you think about it). Freddie Freeman is a perennial MVP candidate, and Andrelton Simmons is the embodiment of young stud shortstop.

 

Weaknesses: Call me old fashioned, but in the era of SABRmetrics, I’m not ready to completely cast batting average aside. Sure, it’s not the be all end all measuring stick it once was, but you just can’t have too many key guys hovering around the Mendoza line and expect to come up with enough two-out run-scoring hits to win playoff series’. They were counting on big production from guys like Dan Uggla and BJ Upton, and just didn’t get it.

 

Off-Season Needs: Well, they should probably figure out the catching situation. They’ve made a qualifying offer to Brian McCann, so there’s that. If they sign him long-term, it sure turns the slugging Evan Gattis into attractive trade bait for an AL contender who could use a DH/part-time catcher. They could use him to deal with the second base issue, or as added incentive for a team to accept the catastrophic contract of Upton. And if they let Tim Hudson walk, they should probably replace his veteran leadership on the staff with someone like…oh hell, just bring Hudson back on an incentive-laden one year deal.

 

2014 Projection: NL East Champs. It’s not a tough division and despite some chinks in the armor, this is a tough team. They pitch. They field. They slug. I don’t think they’re World Series caliber at this point, but 95 wins is a very achievable goal.

Washington Nationals 2013 Off-Season Preview

Strengths:  The Washington Nationals have an excellent base on which to build upon.  Bryce Harper is a legit middle of the order bat, and rookie Anthony Rendon has a chance to be something special at either third or second base.  The top of the rotation is as good as any in baseball with Steven Strasburgh, Gio Gonzalez, and Jordan Zimmerman.

Weaknesses:  The Nationals fell victim to injury and poor pitching in the bullpen in 2013.  Denard Span is an excellent defensive center fielder, but offers just about nothing offensively.  Jason Werth showed signs of being a really good baseball player again, but he is completely inconsistent when it comes to staying healthy.  Ryan Zimmerman is the big question mark for this team.  He is a constant injury risk, and at times showed signs of the yips when throwing the ball from third base.  His future might be at first base, which would allow Rendon to move back to his natural position of third, but leave a hole at second and an asset in Adam LaRoche on the bench.  The Nationals also do not have a quality nor long term answer at catcher.

Off-Season Needs: The first need is to get this team healthy.  In terms of external help, the Nationals should go after a catcher.  They have not been shy about spending money for key free agents, so look for them to be a big player in the Brian McCann sweepstakes, but if they miss out, they could go after Jarrod Saltalamacchia.  They also need to add a pitcher or two to the back end of their rotation.

2014 Projection: It is easy to fall back into the mindset leading into the 2013 season and anoint the Nationals as World Series favorites, and while that is not where I would put them, they certainly have a shot to make it there.  I believe they are the second best team in the NL East, right behind the Atlanta Braves, and have a great shot at getting a Wild Card berth. 

You can follow Shaun Kernahan on twitter @shaunkernahan, add him to your network on Google, and like Shaun on Facebook.