Month: November 2013

Cleveland Indians 2013/14 Off-Season Preview

Strengths: Middle infield. I know, I know, odd choice, but Jason Kipnis and Asdrubal Cabrera make up a pretty awesome 2B SS combo on both sides of the ball. Also, their general lineup depth is pretty solid. Guys like Nick Swisher, Michael Bourn, and Ryan Raburn aren’t stars but they produce. I like the David Murphy signing too because it allows the Tribe to manage the exposure of the talented but flawed Drew Stubbs.

Weaknesses: Pitching. Their bullpen was a collection of mediocre arms anyway, and that was before the departure of the best of the bunch, Joe Smith. Vinnie Pestano may have the inside track at the closer gig with Chris Perez being gone, but how comfortable is manager, Terry Francona going to be with that? Now let’s look at the rotation. Not bad by any standards, but definitely boosted by resurgent seasons from Ubaldo Jimenez and Scott Kazmir, both free agents. Who is going to fill that void?

Off-season Needs: Well, apart from replacing the quality starts and innings provided by Jimenez and Kazmir, they definitely need to find a semi full-time lineup spot for Yan Gomes. There’s chatter about moving Carlos Santana to third base but his offensive value pretty much comes entirely from the fact that he’s a catcher. Move him to third or first, he’s entirely mediocre and a defensive liability to boot. About the closer spot, look for them to make a run at a guy with a good track record but a lost 2013. Maybe Joel Hanrahan.

2014 Outlook: Good. I think. If I’m a tribe fan, I’m terrified of the pitching situation beyond Masterson and Kluber, but you have to think that Terry Francona will be able to coax enough wins out of this team to contend for a wild card. I love the resigning of Jason Giambi too. One of the reasons I’m not a huge fan of the WAR stat is that it doesn’t have a way to quantify the value of a guy like Giambi.

Minnesota Twins 2013/14 Off-Season Preview

Strengths:  Uh…well…I hear their ballpark is nice.   Let’s face it, the major league roster of the Minnesota Twins leaves something to be desired.  Joe Mauer is a star, but him moving from catcher to first base makes him not exactly the MVP level player he was just a couple years ago.  Brian Dozier looks to be a legit starting second baseman in MLB, Glen Perkins is a quality closer and could be for years to come, and Trevor Plouffe may not be a long term answer at third, but could be as a utility man.  But not all hope is lost, the Twins prospect list is loaded.  Byron Buxton is baseball’s top prospect, Miguel Sano has as much power as anyone in the minors, Kohl Stewart could be a future front of the rotation guy, as could Alex Meyer as early as 2014.

Weaknesses: The Major League roster.  The Twins don’t have a whole lot of major league talent, and some of the pieces they do have, are guys named Josh Willingham, Kevin Correia, and newly signed Ricky Nolasco, each of whom will be well into their decline before the Twins are relative again. 

Off-Season Needs:  Talent.  The Twins have the top level talent coming up through the minors, but they are probably another two or three years away from their top talent making real impacts at the big league level.   It does not seem the Twins are taking the Houston Astros approach, tanking until the prospects area ready to break out, so they need some cheap talent that can keep them somewhat competitive.

2014 Projection:  A top 5 team….in the 2015 draft.  The Twins are bad, not the worst team in the league but not far off it.  The Twins lost 96 games in 2013 and will probably lose about the same in 2014, but the future is bright.

You can follow Shaun Kernahan on twitter @shaunkernahan, add him to your network on Google, and like Shaun on Facebook.

Detroit Tigers 2013/14 Off-Season Preview

Strengths: Starting pitching and the best hitter on the planet. Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer are as good a one two punch as any at the top of a rotation, assuming of course that Verlander’s early season struggles in 2013 were an aberration and not the norm. The underrated Doug Fister is also still there and shouldn’t be ignored. There still isn’t a better hitter than Miguel Cabrera, and there’s enough around him that scoring runs shouldn’t be a problem. 

Weaknesses: The bullpen. Apart from Drew Smyly, this unit was calamitous. Personally, bullpens like this one are why the prices for relievers have gotten out of control. They see an otherwise excellently built team be done in time and time again by a terrible pen and go, “Oh my GOD, we better hurry and give Brandon League 24 million over 3 years!” Anyway, rumor has it the Tigers are trying to address their shortcomings here with Brian Wilson, who showed at the end of last year and the playoffs that he has something left in the tank. 

Off-Season Needs: Apart from improved relief pitching, they should probably sort out what the infield is going to be now that the Fielder for Kinsler trade happened. I think moving Cabrera to first and leaving Kinsler at second, which is not an easy position to play, but also not nearly as physically demanding as the talking heads make it out to be, is the best strategy. Then they can resign the better-than-you-really-ever-thought-he-would-turn-out-admit-it, Omar Infante to play third, or even veteran, Juan Uribe. 

2014 Outlook: Positive. The division is pretty winnable, though they shouldn’t overlook an improving Cleveland Indians squad. I’ve never been one to give a lot of credence to off-the-field “distractions” or nonsense along those lines, but if Dave Dombrowski does depart as rumored, that would mean a new manager AND a new GM in one off-season for a team that performed well. You expect turnover from crappy teams, but one wonders if that could have an effect on a good one. We’ll see.

Kansas City Royals 2013/14 Off-Season Preview

Strengths:  A win now attitude.  Jamie Shields (yeah, knew him and played against him in his high school days, forever Jamie and not James to me) is a free agent after the 2014 season, so the Kansas City Royals will be pushing to make 2014 a winning season.  They lose Ervin Santana, but add Jason Vargas, which is pretty much a wash.  Yordano Ventura may break camp with the big league team and he could be a true impact arm.  The lineup is pretty good too. Salvador Perez is the best catcher most fair weather fans have never heard of.  He is excellent defensively and can rake.  Emilio Bonafacio and Alicedes Escobar actually make for a solid double play combo, and if Eric Hosmer bounces back, he can combine with Billy Butler for a great middle of the order.  In addition, the bullpen is solid, and despite early struggles, Greg Holland was quietly one of the best closers in baseball in 2013.

Weaknesses:  Starting pitching depth and outfield.  Sheilds, Vargas, and Jeremy Guthrie is a good start to a rotation, but nothing special.  Ventura could end up a top of the rotation guy by the end of the year, but he could also fall flat on his face.  The Royals need to add at least one more veteran pitcher, maybe even talk to the Boston Red Sox about the excess in starting pitching they have.  The Royals also need to add another outfielder.  A rotation of Lorenzo Cain, Justin Maxwell, and Jarrod Dyson isn’t ideal, but could be worse in center is below average, but serviceable.

Off-Season Needs:  I already mentioned the need for a starting pitcher, but a power bat in right is needed.  Until he is signed, any team with a need at first and/or outfield and I will mention Mike Morse, but another interesting target could be Nate McClouth.  Neither would cost a ton of money, and both would be an upgrade.

2014 Projection:  The Tigers are clearly the cream of the crop in the division and the Indians impressed last year, but the Royals could really contend.  Prior to the 2012 season I half-jokingly wrote an article that the Royals would face the Washington Nationals in the 2013 World Series.  While that clearly was nowhere near accurate, I was on the right path.  Both teams have improved into real contenders, and the Royals could easily get a Wild Card berth, and are only an injury on the Tigers from making a run at the division.

You can follow Shaun Kernahan on twitter @shaunkernahan, add him to your network on Google, and like Shaun on Facebook.

Chicago Cubs 2013/14 Off-Season Preview

Strengths: Youth and contract structures. Yes, I’m reaching a little bit. But after two consecutive terrible seasons, it’s hard to come up with strengths. That said, core players Anthony Rizzo and Starlin Castro are quite young and have time to rebound from poor 2012 campaigns. And while not a ton of progress has been seen from the Theo Epstein rebuilding plan, the Cubbies have not, save for the terrible Edwin Jackson deal, committed a ton of money to middling players who don’t deserve it, allowing them the flexibility to make larger investments when their prospects mature into everyday producers and the win count begins to rise. Infield prospect Javier Baez is only 20, but appears to be close to Major League ready after hammering 37 home runs across two minor league levels in 2012.

Weaknesses: Lack of impact players, and the bullpen. They’ve got some nice pieces, and decent values on the roster (see: Schierholtz, Nathan), but no real impact players. There’s no ace, though Travis Wood and Jeff Szamardzija have some ability. There’s nobody in the bullpen that can be labeled as a late inning, shut down guy. If you’re going to commit to a full rebuild, you will want to see some semblance of results by year three and you just have to wonder where those results are going to come from.

Off-Season Needs: Figure out which of your prospects are closest to ready for the big time, and sign some low cost, short-term stop gap guys. Don’t repeat the Edwin Jackson calamity. If you’re looking for examples already on the roster, guys like Ryan Sweeney and Luis Valbuena stand out.

2014 Projection: Maybe they get to 70 wins? Maybe Rich Renteria turns out to be the next great manager? Maybe Theo Epstein’s reputation from Boston is overblown, and this team goes nowhere. I’ll give it one more year to see progress and guess 70 wins.

Milwaukee Brewers 2013/14 Off-Season Preview

Strengths:  Talent.  It is there, you just have to get past the Ryan Braun circus to see it.  Carlos Gomez is an excellent center fielder and Jean Segura is a potential star at short.  Aramis Ramirez at third is a quality middle of the order bat, and Jonathan Lucroy is a far better catcher than he gets credit for.  Add that to a rotation that starts with Kyle Lohse and Yovani Gallardo, and you have a solid start to a quality team.

Weaknesses:  Bullpen and right side of the infield.  Jim Henderson should not be a closer, but he is by far the best arm in the bullpen, and the right side of the infield has two guys that have no business starting in major league baseball.  The Brewers top three prospects are pitchers that are MLB ready for 2014, and they have a first base prospect, Hunter Morris, could challenge for playing time next season, but none are difference makers.

Off-Season Needs:  They need to bolster the bullpen, but won’t be able to make a big splash money wise.  They will not be able to compete for the biggest names, but Edward Mujica wouldn’t be a bad sign.  As far as the right side of the infield, James Loney and Omar Infante could serve as decent values and lift the Brewers into contenders in 2014.

2014 Projection:  The Brewers are in a bit of a tough spot.  They have enough talent to be competitive, but not nearly enough to be real championship contenders.  At the same time, they are as small market as it comes, and have a less than impressive farm system.  They could make a couple decent sized moves this season and make a run at the playoffs, or they can look to move some of their bigger names to get younger and more talented throughout their organization.

You can follow Shaun Kernahan on twitter @shaunkernahan, add him to your network on Google, and like Shaun on Facebook.

Saint Louis Cardinals 2013/14 Off-Season Preview

Strengths: Youth. This team just went to the World Series and many of its key contributors were merely in the infancy of their careers. Sure, Carlos Beltran and Matt Holliday are grizzled vets, but the fireballing Carlos Martinez and Trevor Rosenthal at the back of the bullpen, Joe Kelly and Michael Wacha in the rotation, and stud first baseman Allen Craig and MVP candidate Matt Carpenter are just starting out. The future is bright. Their scouting and personnel people have sure gotten the job done. 

Weaknesses: Nothing glaring. If you wanted to nitpick, you could say that their offense occasionally hits a period of malaise, as it happened to do during the World Series. When you’ve got the light-hitting Pete Kozma, underachieving John Jay, and the streaky David Freese happens to be in a funk, that’s more than a third of your line up that you can’t count on much from. That’s a lot.

Off-Season Needs: Again, they just competed in the World Series so it’s not like an overhaul is in order. They really need to open a spot for Oscar Taveras, which they can accomplish by letting Carlos Beltran leave in free agency, though cutting bait with the disappointing Jay would be preferred. They also should consider opening a spot for Matt Adams by trading David Freese and moving Craig to third.

2014 Outlook: The NL Central is competitive for sure, but I don’t see any scenario happening in which this team does not win the division. Clearly, they aren’t unbeatable, but if their division wasn’t so tough they’d probably eclipse 100 wins easily. A deep playoff run, and maybe even another World Series appearance, is in the cards. Get it? See what I did there? In the “cards”??? Never mind.

Pittsburgh Pirates 2013/14 Off-Season Preview

Strengths:  Stability.  The Pittsburgh Pirates have basically the entire offense coming back.  Andrew McCutchen just won NL MVP, and he is only getting better.  The Pirates even have a full rotation of starters that can keep them contenders with, and have Jamenson Taillon waiting in the wing.

Weaknesses:  There isn’t really a big weakness.  They could use an upgrade at short and another right handed power bat wouldn’t hurt.  The shortstop position is probably the biggest need.  Jordy Mercer played well down the stretch but is hardly a franchise guy.

Off-Season Needs:  The Pirates are not a big market team, so they won’t be big players in the free agent market, but they will need to make a small splash to start a streak of winning seasons after two decades of futility.  If they decide to spend some money, there is a guy that can fill both their needs of shortstop and right handed power, Jhonny Peralta.  That said, the Pirates have several ground ball pitchers, and Peralta isn’t exactly a great defender.

2014 Projection:  Playoffs.  I think the Pirates have the potential to be very good and battle for the division.  They probably aren’t real World Series contenders, but they are close.

You can follow Shaun Kernahan on twitter @shaunkernahan, add him to your network on Google, and like Shaun on Facebook.

Cincinnati Reds 2013/14 Off-Season Preview

Strengths: On the surface, they appear to be well rounded. They can hit quite a bit, they can pitch well from front to back. Joey Votto remains one of the great players in the game, and Shin Soo Choo and his ridiculously awesome on base percentage at the top of the order remains one of the most criminally underrated players in the game. Mat Latos and Johnny Cueto (when healthy) form a solid front of the rotation. Aroldis Chapman is practically unhittable. Life should be good. 

Weaknesses: Well, up until the end of this season, Dusty Baker was manager, so it if came down to crucial decisions in a game, the Reds were at a disadvantage. Brandon Phillips, while a pretty good player, is an odd choice to bat clean up, but that’s where he was. And the inability to manage a pitching staff, a monkey that has been on Baker’s back for a long time, continues to hound him. The talent is here, and if it fails to come through on the big stage, someone has to take the fall. And that’s what happened. 

Off-Season Needs:  Sign Choo long term, comes to mind. And assuming Bronson Arroyo leaves via free agency, that’s 35 starts and 200 innings that will need to be replaced. I wouldn’t mind seeing them upgrade at catcher either. You can deal with guys that don’t hit much if they’re good defensively, but neither Ryan Hanigan nor Devin Mesoraco are any better than average behind the dish. 

2014 Outlook: This is a good team that made the post-season in spite of Dusty Baker. They should continue to. They’re in a brutal division that also features World Series runner-up Saint Louis, and an up-and-coming Pirates squad, so nothing should be taken for granted. I think they get a wild card spot with 90 or so wins.

Tampa Bay Rays 2013/14 Off-Season Preview

Strengths:  Front Office and Manager.  Joe Maddon is as good a manager as there is in baseball.  The whole Rays organization does an incredible job of advanced scouting and it shows in their success in turning guys like James Loney into valuable commodities and the success of the defensive shift.  They also have some great young talent in Wil Myers and Desmond Jennings along with a talented young staff.

Weaknesses:  Payroll.  The Rays will never be able to compete with the Red Sox and Yankees when it comes to payroll, which is why they have to get so creative with roster construction.  They will once again have to piece together castoffs from other teams and hope they hit another home run.

Off-Season Needs: Figure out what to do with David Price.  He is as good a pitcher as there Is baseball, but he will soon become far too expensive for the Rays.  They will likely have to deal him this offseason to build more pieces to keep the team competitive.  They need to add a first baseman and catcher desperately. 

2014 Projection:  Is it really possible to ever count out the Rays?  They are probably the second or third best team in the division and will challenge for a Wild Card bid, but that is more based on track record than the talent on paper.

You can follow Shaun Kernahan on twitter @shaunkernahan, add him to your network on Google, and like Shaun on Facebook.