Swinging for the Fences

If you play Daily Fantasy NFL and consume any of the industrial sludge passed off as “expert analysis,” you’ve probably noticed something: they’ve been abysmal this year. Picking chalk that busts, overhyping overpriced guys, and generally torching your bankroll with the confidence of a toddler playing with matches.

Meanwhile, credit where credit’s due — my Stain co-conspirator Shaun has been handing out sharper calls than most of the blue-check DFS cartel. The receipts are there. Compare his takes to the big names, and you’d swear one group had access to actual game film while the other was drafting based on vibes and horoscopes.

Me? Guilty as charged — I haven’t been giving DFS readers much meat so far. Time to fix that.

How I Roll

My usual DFS weekend looks like this:

• One 50/50 for the main slate.
• One cash entry for each of the early and late windows.
• A Captain Showdown dart throw.
• And one absolute “swing for the fences” lineup — the scratcher ticket you buy knowing full well it’s going to flame out, but dreaming it might hit the jackpot.

The swing lineup is what we’re focuing on this week. It isn’t about safety. It’s about finding the high-scoring chaos game, stacking it properly, and praying to the variance gods. Sometimes you belly-flop into a 9-6 defensive slog. Sometimes you swim in gold. And every now and again, the stars align where you’re more likely to be Scrooge McDuck than you are Mortimer and Randolph in Coming to America. There’s one for the kids, right?

The Chaos Game: Bears vs. Raiders

This week, that chaos game is Bears vs. Raiders.

• Two atrocious defenses.
• Affordable playmakers across the board.
• The kind of matchup that could plausibly finish 38-35 with both fanbases still demanding their coaches be fired.

Neither of these teams is sniffing the playoffs, but DFS doesn’t care about banners. It cares about box scores. Somebody has to score those touchdowns.

Quarterbacks

• Caleb Williams ($5800 DK): Scattershot accuracy? Sure. But with time to throw against a limp Vegas pass rush, his rushing floor plus upside makes him a strong play.
• Geno Smith ($5400 DK): Loves the deep ball, and the Bears’ secondary is basically a MASH unit. He’s a coin flip with Caleb, but I lean Williams for the legs.

Pass Catchers

• Jakobi Meyers ($5400 DK): Perpetually underrated. Free square.
• Rome Odunze ($6300 DK): Target magnet and worth the spend.
• DJ Moore ($5600 DK): Affordable, volatile, and capable of a slate-breaking day.
• Brock Bowers ($5800 DK): Great ceiling, but I’m squeamish about the knee.

Flier zone: Cole Kmet or Colston Loveland if you want to galaxy-brain tight end exposure, but it’s dicey.

Running Backs

• Ashton Jeanty ($6200 DK): Finally priced like a rookie instead of a clone of peak Bijan. Dynamic pass-catcher, worth the tag.
• D’Andre Swift ($5400 DK): Hip issue clouds things, but if active, he’s a viable PPR play.

If you’ve got the extra $800, I’m siding with Jeanty.

The Bonus

Because you’re not hemorrhaging salary here, you can jam a couple premium studs into the same build:

• Derrick Henry: Angry bounce-back game incoming after two costly fumbles.
• Puka Nacua: WR1 upside every week if his hammies stay intact. Against Indy’s pressure-less defense? Yes, please.

The Asterisk

This could either detonate the slate or turn into Bears 6, Raiders 3, with everyone involved carted off by the third quarter. That’s the deal when you swing big. Know the risk, accept the variance, and lean into the chaos.

Closing Thought

DFS is gambling dressed up in spreadsheets. Stack your Bears and Raiders, sprinkle in a king like Henry, and don’t cry if it flames out. It’s called a swing for the fences, not a bunt down the line. If it connects, we’re all drinking on your dime.

Look, if you can’t draw sweeping, definitive conclusions after exactly 5.8% of the NFL season, then what are you even doing? Watching for nuance? Waiting for “a larger sample size”? Please. This is America. One week is plenty. Here’s what we now absolutely, without question, take-to-the-bank know after Week 1:

1. Josh Allen is the best quarterback in the NFL

Not controversial, but it bears repeating. Watching him Sunday night was like watching a master chef build a soufflé while your microwave mac-and-cheese explodes in the background. He’s in his own class, and he just engineered a comeback that erased all doubt.

2. Russell Wilson is washed

And not “this shirt’s a little faded” washed. We’re talking “left it in the machine for three cycles with bleach and now it’s a dish rag” washed. Against a Commanders defense softer than hotel pillows, Russ was still unwatchable. The Jackson Dart era in New York can’t be far away.

3. Matthew Stafford’s back is fine

Preseason whispers about aggravated discs had everyone playing amateur chiropractors. Then Week 1 came and Stafford carved up Houston like he’d been sleeping on a Tempur-Pedic. Will he still throw two or three stinkers this season? Of course. But the back isn’t the issue.

4. Danny Dimes wasn’t the problem in New York

He may have contributed to the problem, but turns out coaching matters. Drop him in Indy, hand him a playbook that doesn’t look like a middle school science fair project, and suddenly he looks competent. Let’s see him against a real defense before we crown him the Prince of Naptown.

5. Derrick Henry is still the sun, moon, and stars of RBs

Yes, he coughed up an unforgiveable fumble that opened the door for Allen’s heroics. But nobody changes the geometry of a defense like Henry. Bijan and Jahmyr will fill your fantasy box scores. Henry fills your nightmares. He’s aging like a ballerina too.

6. The Packers are going to win 13 games

Maybe more. The rest of the NFC looks like window dressing at this point. Adding Micah Parsons to that roster is like giving an F-150 a jet engine. Everyone drools over Philly and just assumes they’ll be back in the big game, but Green Bay is the real heavyweight.

7. The Browns are better than you think

Playoffs might be too rich, but they’re not pushovers. A decent kicker away from beating Cincy, who are supposedly primed for a bounce back season, they should win a fair amount of games. The defense muzzled Ja’Marr Chase and held the Bengals to 17. That’s not luck; that’s substance.

8. Jaxon Smith-Njigba is criminally underrated

If you watched him last year, you saw it coming. Now with DK and Lockett out of his way, he’s ready to pop. The rest of the Seahawks are mid, so his brilliance might get lost, but check back in Week 17. You’ll see the numbers.

9. NFL “analysts” don’t know squat

There are a few decent ones, but by and large, they’re carnival barkers with click quotas. Don’t confuse bluster with wisdom. Yet even a broken clock nails a hot take occasionally, and they might be right about J.J. McCarthy. His first half was a disaster, his second half was gangster. A lot of younger guys fall apart at the seams after a brutal start to a game. Only real tough guys come out firing and leading comebacks. He looks like a real dude.

10. The Chargers are making the playoffs

Yes, the AFC is a meat grinder. Yes, this is the conference with the Bills and Ravens. This is also the conference with the Chiefs, but L.A. just beat them fair and square, and they’re loaded with talent. Don’t sleep on them unless you enjoy waking up broke after betting against them.

The Close: 5.8% Faith

This is the part where the boring people tell you it’s “too early” to make proclamations. But that’s coward talk. Week 1 is the Rosetta Stone, the burning bush, the etched-in-stone commandments of football truth. If Josh Allen falls off, if Russell Wilson finds the fountain of youth, if the Browns implode—fine. We’ll just pretend we never said any of this and move on to Week 2 like everyone else.

Until then? These are facts. Etched in granite. Book them. Bet them. Tattoo them on your lower back. Because in this league, 5.8% of the season is all you need to know everything.

Every year, some rando comes out of nowhere and delivers fantasy glory to the one guy in your league who either (a) spotted value where no one else dared look, or (b) had the waiver priority that week. Don’t pretend it’s always brilliance. Sometimes it’s dumb luck wrapped in a Bud Light can.

And it’s never the usual suspects. Ja’Marr Chase, Lamar Jackson, Saquon Barkley — great players mean premium draft picks. If one of those studs was the only high performer on your team last season and the rest of your roster was flaming garbage, you weren’t sniffing the money. Every team has stars. Stars alone don’t win you fantasy leagues. Depth goblins and breakout weirdos do.

Last year, one of those guys was Chuba Hubbard — a running back so anonymous you’d confuse him for the third member of LMFAO, who only got his shot because the shiny free agent and the high draft pick ahead of him both broke. The year before? Puka Nakua — a fifth-round pick out of BYU, not even guaranteed a roster spot, who casually rewrote rookie record books like he was bored.

So who’s this year’s Chuba, this year’s Puka? Here’s a few shots worth ordering late in drafts. Some of them will hit like 18-year-old Scotch, some will taste like gas station tequila. But when you’re only spending a double-digit pick, who cares if you wake up with a headache?

Quarterbacks

My QB philosophy is well-known to the two loyal readers of this column: wait, and then wait some more. Depth is ridiculous, so let’s talk about two who could sneak their way into your championship lineup.

• Trevor Lawrence — Stakes are higher than my cholesterol for the former #1 pick. O-line is still a question mark, sure, but the Jags’ defense is trash, which means shootouts, which means Trevor chucking it 40+ times a week. Surrounded by talent now, he’s a dark horse for a massive fantasy season.
• Sam Darnold — Yeah, I know, insert ghost joke here. But bleach the playoff disaster from your brain and look at the setup: improved Seattle O-line, Jaxon Smith-Njigba (who is going to eat), and a pass-oriented gameplan. Darnold is virtually a lock for 30 TDs, is more mobile than he gets credit for, and is going undrafted in a lot of mocks. Free real estate. Just don’t make him your first qb choice in case I’m wrong.

Running Backs

RBs age like milk left in the sun, which is why I usually fade the position outside the elites. But you still need warm bodies in the stable. Here’s two who can be had late and still win you weeks.

• Austin Ekeler — He’s not the sexiest name anymore, but don’t let the ageism fool you. With Brian Robinson all but traded, Ekeler has a clear role in the offense, and could fall into workhorse status if injuries strike. He’s one Chris Rodriguez twisted ankle away from being your weekly RB2.
• Isaiah Pacheco — People forgot him after an injury-plagued 2024. Don’t. He’s back, healthy, and built like an NFL-created rage emoji. This is the lead back on a Super Bowl contender who racks up red zone touches. Why he’s falling in drafts is beyond me. You won’t find cheaper touchdowns.

Wide Receivers

This is the group I love. I’ll go WR-WR-WR at the top of a draft, light a cigar, and laugh while the rest of you panic over running backs. But even late, there are gems.

• Keenan Allen — Remember him? Target hog, then poof, vanished to Chicago, where he still put up respectable numbers with DJ Moore and Rome Odunze crowding him. Now? He’s back in LA catching piss missiles from Justin Herbert. With only rookie Ladd McConkey above him, Allen’s a lock for 1,000 yards.
• Ricky Pearsall — A month ago, he was lasting into the teens of mocks. Now? Round 7 or 8. Still a bargain. Brock Purdy is better than his critics want to admit, and Pearsall is a safe bet for 120 targets. He’s not flashy, but 1,000 yards and 8 TDs will do just fine.

Tight Ends (Groan…)

Fine, let’s get this over with. Tight ends are either buried pirate treasure or something your cat buried in the litter box. That said, you’re kind of required to field one every week. So…

• Brenton Strange — Zero competition in Jacksonville. He showed signs late last year, and if you’re punting the position, you could do worse. Pencil him in for 9 PPG from the bargain bin.
• Evan Engram — Talk about a plum setup: talented young QB, coach who knows how to use him, and a wide-open target share. Don’t be surprised if he finishes TE3 behind Bowers and McBride. That’s insane value for someone drafted outside the top 7 at the position.

The Disclaimer

If you roll into the season with only these guys, congratulations, you’ve built a flaming paper airplane. These are compliments, not entrees. Keep perspective. Draft them at value. Don’t reach.

Hit on one or two of them, though? That’s how you win leagues. And when you do, just remember who told you. I take cash, Venmo, or a cut of your winnings paid in bourbon.

Now that you’ve seen Shaun’s “load up on running backs” strategy, let’s talk about the actual path to fantasy enlightenment. And to be fair to Shaun, his way works sometimes. He’s had seasons where he’s cashed out, celebrated at Buffalo Wild Wings, and looked smug holding his jalapeño poppers.

But me? Ever since I pivoted to a No RB (punting the position until the late rounds) or Hero RB (one stud muffin like Jahmyr Gibbs and then 47 receivers) approach, my “in the money” finishes have hit nearly 90%. That’s not a fluke — that’s math in a tuxedo drinking an Old Fashioned.

Let me illustrate with a mock draft I ran in real time. I picked 11th in a 12-team PPR league and planned to go WR-heavy in the first four rounds. I wanted the wheel slot, but was a second too late — like walking into a happy hour just as the bartender flips the sign to “Private Event.”

Rounds 1–2: The Foundation

Picks: Brian Thomas, Nico Collins.
Value so good it should’ve come gift-wrapped.
Had I gone RB here, Devon Achane or Derrick Henry were on the board. Defensible picks? Sure. But the point here isn’t “safe.” The point is overwhelm them in one position before they realize what’s happening.

Rounds 3–4: The WR Avalanche

Picks: Garrett Wilson, Marvin Harrison Jr.
Oh. My. God. This WR room is a penthouse suite.
If I’d gone RB, I’d have been looking at Alvin Kamara, Chuba Hubbard, or Kenneth Walker. Fine players. Also fine players to let someone else overpay for.

Way too early for QB, but some folks will panic and take Jayden Daniels here. Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson were already gone. Good. Let them chase names.

Rounds 5–6: The Luxury Pick and the Workhorse

Pick 5: Jaylen Waddle — a luxury, yes, but at this price? Absolute steal.
Pick 6: David Montgomery — as good a bet for double-digit touchdowns as exists in the league. Isaiah Pacheco and Tyrone Tracy were here too, as was Aaron Jones Sr, who will apparently be splitting touches with Jordan Mason in some cruel Shanahan fever dream.

Rounds 7–8: Jackpot Falls to Me

Pick 7: Tyrone Tracy somehow comes back to me. Don’t ask questions, just take the gift.
Pick 8: Kaleb Johnson — figures to get the early-down and goal-line work in Pittsburgh. Would I have loved David Njoku here? Sure. But he got pipped right before my turn. That’s fine. Tight end can wait.

Rounds 9–10: Depth and Disrespect

Pick 9: Keenan Allen — I’ll take a shot on the return to form.
Pick 10: Austin Ekeler — the fantasy equivalent of finding a $50 bill in an old pair of jeans. Is he ancient? Yes. Can he still win me weeks? Also yes.

At this point, my RB room is solid, but my WR corps is filthy.

Rounds 11–12: Gambling on Tight End

Picks: Hunter Henry and Kyle Pitts.
Henry was Drake Maye’s favorite red-zone target, and if a QB change doesn’t finally unlock Pitts’ talent, then he might as well retire and sell Herbalife. But here? This late? You’re buying lottery tickets at half price.

Rounds 13–14: The QB Punt Pays Off

Picks: Trevor Lawrence and Bryce Young.
Yes, Bryce Young. Don’t laugh — he was one of the highest PPG QBs down the stretch last year, largely on the strength of his sneaky rushing ability.

And that’s the point. While my leaguemates were taking QBs in Rounds 4–7, I was stockpiling WRs who will outscore their RB2s and their WR2s all year long.

The Lesson

No, I didn’t draft exactly how I would in a real league — I took liberties to make the point. But the core truth stands:

• Rounds 2–5: WRs here will vastly outperform the RBs you can get in the same range.
• Rounds 6–10: That’s where RB value lives.
• Quarterbacks: Wait. Wait longer. Wait until they start sending you “you still need a QB” notifications.

Because in a game where the only objective is to score more points than the other guy? You don’t win by following the crowd. You win by making them look up from their draft board, stare at your roster, and mutter, “Oh… crap.”