Category: Uncategorized

Saint Louis Cardinals 2013/14 Off-Season Preview

Strengths: Youth. This team just went to the World Series and many of its key contributors were merely in the infancy of their careers. Sure, Carlos Beltran and Matt Holliday are grizzled vets, but the fireballing Carlos Martinez and Trevor Rosenthal at the back of the bullpen, Joe Kelly and Michael Wacha in the rotation, and stud first baseman Allen Craig and MVP candidate Matt Carpenter are just starting out. The future is bright. Their scouting and personnel people have sure gotten the job done. 

Weaknesses: Nothing glaring. If you wanted to nitpick, you could say that their offense occasionally hits a period of malaise, as it happened to do during the World Series. When you’ve got the light-hitting Pete Kozma, underachieving John Jay, and the streaky David Freese happens to be in a funk, that’s more than a third of your line up that you can’t count on much from. That’s a lot.

Off-Season Needs: Again, they just competed in the World Series so it’s not like an overhaul is in order. They really need to open a spot for Oscar Taveras, which they can accomplish by letting Carlos Beltran leave in free agency, though cutting bait with the disappointing Jay would be preferred. They also should consider opening a spot for Matt Adams by trading David Freese and moving Craig to third.

2014 Outlook: The NL Central is competitive for sure, but I don’t see any scenario happening in which this team does not win the division. Clearly, they aren’t unbeatable, but if their division wasn’t so tough they’d probably eclipse 100 wins easily. A deep playoff run, and maybe even another World Series appearance, is in the cards. Get it? See what I did there? In the “cards”??? Never mind.

Pittsburgh Pirates 2013/14 Off-Season Preview

Strengths:  Stability.  The Pittsburgh Pirates have basically the entire offense coming back.  Andrew McCutchen just won NL MVP, and he is only getting better.  The Pirates even have a full rotation of starters that can keep them contenders with, and have Jamenson Taillon waiting in the wing.

Weaknesses:  There isn’t really a big weakness.  They could use an upgrade at short and another right handed power bat wouldn’t hurt.  The shortstop position is probably the biggest need.  Jordy Mercer played well down the stretch but is hardly a franchise guy.

Off-Season Needs:  The Pirates are not a big market team, so they won’t be big players in the free agent market, but they will need to make a small splash to start a streak of winning seasons after two decades of futility.  If they decide to spend some money, there is a guy that can fill both their needs of shortstop and right handed power, Jhonny Peralta.  That said, the Pirates have several ground ball pitchers, and Peralta isn’t exactly a great defender.

2014 Projection:  Playoffs.  I think the Pirates have the potential to be very good and battle for the division.  They probably aren’t real World Series contenders, but they are close.

You can follow Shaun Kernahan on twitter @shaunkernahan, add him to your network on Google, and like Shaun on Facebook.

Cincinnati Reds 2013/14 Off-Season Preview

Strengths: On the surface, they appear to be well rounded. They can hit quite a bit, they can pitch well from front to back. Joey Votto remains one of the great players in the game, and Shin Soo Choo and his ridiculously awesome on base percentage at the top of the order remains one of the most criminally underrated players in the game. Mat Latos and Johnny Cueto (when healthy) form a solid front of the rotation. Aroldis Chapman is practically unhittable. Life should be good. 

Weaknesses: Well, up until the end of this season, Dusty Baker was manager, so it if came down to crucial decisions in a game, the Reds were at a disadvantage. Brandon Phillips, while a pretty good player, is an odd choice to bat clean up, but that’s where he was. And the inability to manage a pitching staff, a monkey that has been on Baker’s back for a long time, continues to hound him. The talent is here, and if it fails to come through on the big stage, someone has to take the fall. And that’s what happened. 

Off-Season Needs:  Sign Choo long term, comes to mind. And assuming Bronson Arroyo leaves via free agency, that’s 35 starts and 200 innings that will need to be replaced. I wouldn’t mind seeing them upgrade at catcher either. You can deal with guys that don’t hit much if they’re good defensively, but neither Ryan Hanigan nor Devin Mesoraco are any better than average behind the dish. 

2014 Outlook: This is a good team that made the post-season in spite of Dusty Baker. They should continue to. They’re in a brutal division that also features World Series runner-up Saint Louis, and an up-and-coming Pirates squad, so nothing should be taken for granted. I think they get a wild card spot with 90 or so wins.

Tampa Bay Rays 2013/14 Off-Season Preview

Strengths:  Front Office and Manager.  Joe Maddon is as good a manager as there is in baseball.  The whole Rays organization does an incredible job of advanced scouting and it shows in their success in turning guys like James Loney into valuable commodities and the success of the defensive shift.  They also have some great young talent in Wil Myers and Desmond Jennings along with a talented young staff.

Weaknesses:  Payroll.  The Rays will never be able to compete with the Red Sox and Yankees when it comes to payroll, which is why they have to get so creative with roster construction.  They will once again have to piece together castoffs from other teams and hope they hit another home run.

Off-Season Needs: Figure out what to do with David Price.  He is as good a pitcher as there Is baseball, but he will soon become far too expensive for the Rays.  They will likely have to deal him this offseason to build more pieces to keep the team competitive.  They need to add a first baseman and catcher desperately. 

2014 Projection:  Is it really possible to ever count out the Rays?  They are probably the second or third best team in the division and will challenge for a Wild Card bid, but that is more based on track record than the talent on paper.

You can follow Shaun Kernahan on twitter @shaunkernahan, add him to your network on Google, and like Shaun on Facebook.

Toronto Blue Jays 2013/14 Offseason Preview

Strengths: Power. These guys sure can slug. Bautista. Encarnacion. Lind. Rasmus. Lawrie. Arencibia. Even Jose Reyes, way better known for his rocket speed, has some pop.  Few line ups, if any, feature 8 guys in it at any given time that can turn the game on its head with a long ball. Very quietly, this team has a pretty good bullpen too, featuring quality arms Casey Janssen, Steve Delabar, and Brett Cecil.

 

Weaknesses: Decline and durability. Brett Lawrie and Jose Reyes are five tool players, but have shown an alarming propensity to get hurt. The incredible Jose Bautista has struggled to stay on the field the last couple of years. Brendan Morrow and his Cy Young stuff can’t put a full season together. You just can’t have that amount of star power in the infirmary and expect to contend. Especially when guys like Mark Buehrle, for years a front of the rotation guy, are starting to noticeably decline, and former Cy Young winner R.A. Dickey’s ERA creeps up over four. It’s like the ugly person at the club who dances really well. They look good from afar, but are far from good.

 

Off-Season Needs: Blow up the staff. No, they’re not terrible, like Houston Astros terrible. They’re serviceable, but serviceable doesn’t get it done if you want to contend. You may have to wait until the trading deadline approaches, and contenders are willing to overpay for veteran leadership to pull this off. But trade Buehrle. Trade Dickey, who you can get a king’s ransom for at his affordable salary. You can also trade a veteran bat like either Bautista or Encarnacion (or both???) and get some front end prospects, pay up for the best free agent pitcher on the market in the 2014/15 offseason, and now you’re working on a core with real potential.

 

2014 Outlook: Not good. They finished 74-88 last year. They might improve on that slightly simply by the virtue that I see every other team in the AL East, including the champion Bo Sox, having slight to significant regression (I’m looking at you, Baltimore). But they won’t finish above .500. No chance.

Baltimore Orioles 2013/14 Off-Season Preview

Strengths:  Offense.  The Baltimore Orioles have a very solid lineup.  Assuming Manny Machado is back for opening day, the left side of the Orioles infield is second to none.  I don’t think Chris Davis was a fluke, he won’t have a season quite like this past one, but he is a legit power hitter moving forward.  Jonathan Schoop is a young second baseman that should make an impact at some point next season, while Matt Weiters is an above average catcher and Adam Jones is a well above average center fielder.

Weaknesses:  The most glaring weakness is top level starting pitching.  In fact, they could use mid-level starting pitching.  In a division that has the likes of David Price (for now), CC Sabathia, Jon Lester, and R.A. Dickey at the top of rotations, projecting out an opening day starter of Miguel Gonzalez or Chris Tillman don’t exactly leave anyone shaking in their boots.

Off-Season Needs: Beyond the desperate need for starting pitching, there are two glaring needs for the Orioles.  Nick Markakis is still a suitable right fielder, but left field could use a real upgrade and the DH spot is painfully weak for the O’s.  Kendrys Morales would be a natural fit at DH, but considering he was offered a qualifying offer from the Mariners and signing him would cost the Orioles a first round pick, they may be best served resigning Nate McClouth and Mike Morse rather than dropping big money and a draft pick on Morales.

2014 Projection:  I am a big fan of what the Orioles have done the past two years, but I see a dip in production in 2014.  They could easily finish fourth in the division.  They have the talent to finish around .500, but the lack of top end starting pitching and the lack of impact bats at positions of need for the Orioles leaves the upside of the team a bit tempered.

You can follow Shaun Kernahan on twitter @shaunkernahan, add him to your network on Google, and like Shaun on Facebook.

 

Boston Red Sox 2013/14 Off-season Preview

Strengths: Well, they’re the defending champs, right? In addition to that, they have excellent starting pitching and a well-balanced offense that knows how to use the ballpark that it plays in. From a front office perspective, GM Ben Cherington is decisive and unafraid, as evidenced by the huge blockbuster trade from last season with the Dodgers that one could actually argue benefitted both teams.

Weaknesses: It’s hard to poke holes in the armor of the team that just won the World Series, but no team is perfect. So, the bullpen, apart from Koji Uehara, is a question mark. But mainly, a lot of key parts are going to be testing the market, if not departing for different colored pastures (doesn’t get greener than winning, does it??? Unless you use green in terms of money I suppose…). Is Jackie Bradley ready to inherit Jacoby Ellsbury’s spot in center if the latter departs? Assuming Stephen Drew is leaving, is Xander Bogaerts ready to handle shortstop? What if Mike Napoli leaves? Jarrod Saltalamacchia?

Off-Season Needs: Well, for one, fill some of the holes I just mentioned in the roster. More specifically, you need some veteran help on the left side of the infield if Bogaerts needs more seasoning or Will Middlebrooks regresses again. A right handed thumper to play first base part time wouldn’t hurt either. And an honest conversation with catcher David Ross, who has always been criminally underrated for what he brings to a team. If at age 36 he can take on more playing time than the 36 starts he got last year, losing Saltalamacchia won’t hurt as much.

2014 Outlook: Playoffs, most likely. I just can’t shake the notion that this team overachieved a little. Top to bottom, there are more talented rosters out there, and a repeat title is unlikely. More likely, in my opinion, is an ALCS loss to the Tigers in 6 games. Still, what a great two year run that would be just one year removed from a disaster.

New York Yankees 2013 Off-Season Preview

Strengths:  Payroll.  The Yankees have a ton of work to do this off-season and their ability to spend money will prove to be their biggest strength.  One surprise is the fact the greatest closer of all time retiring might not hurt the bullpen.  David Robertson can easily become one of the best closers in the game next year.

Weaknesses: There is no telling if Derek Jeter will be healthy enough to ever play again, Mark Teixeira spent the majority of 2013 on the DL, Alex Rodriguez could be suspended all year, Curtis Granderson is a free agent, as is Robinson Cano.  The Yankees farm system is not filled with many prospects that are ready to make an impact this coming year, so they will have to look elsewhere for help.

Off-Season Needs:  The first thing the Yankees need to do is secure Robinson Cano.  They only have three legit starting pitchers, so that is also a major need.  The team is getting very old, so signing some of the younger free agents, or trading for younger players is a must.  Unfortunately, the lone quality free agent on the market under the age of 30 is Jarrod Saltalamacchia, and catcher is one of the smallest concerns the Yankees have this off-season.  I would also be surprised if the Yankees don’t go all in on Japanese pitcher Masahiro Tanaka.

2014 Projection:  The Yankees are in a rough spot.  Their roster is old and injury prone, and they don’t have the youth coming up anytime soon.  2013 might have been the start of the Yankees loose spending catching up with them, and could very easily finish last in the AL East in 2014.

You can follow Shaun Kernahan on twitter @shaunkernahan, add him to your network on Google, and like Shaun on Facebook.

 

Miami Marlins 2013 Off-Season Preview

Strengths: The Marlins have some of baseball’s elite young big league talent, starting with Jose Fernandez, who figures to be a part of the Cy Young conversation for the next decade plus. Christian Yelich makes a nice outfield bookend to Giancarlo Stanton, assuming the latter isn’t traded in the very near future. Adeiny Hechvarria is interesting at shortstop too, and their farm system is considered to be pretty flush with legitimate prospects. To be filed under “Intriguing,” Marcell Ozuna showed flashes before fading in 2013 and pitcher Henderson Alvarez fired a no-hitter at the end of the season.

Weaknesses: Ownership and front office. Jeffrey Loria is a joke of an owner, if not a criminal for the way he swindled the people of Miami. He’s every bit as much of a joke for the way he undermined manager Mike Redmond when he essentially forced the manager to change his decision on who was to start the first game of a double header between the rookie, Fernandez, and veteran Ricky Nolasco. The fear I would have if I were a Marlins fan is that even if most of the top prospects currently in the system turn out to be good players, no free agent of any note will ever want to come to Miami. Just look at the way Loria is notorious for blowing up rosters. Also, just ask Jose Reyes and Mark Buehrle what they think of him. But I digress, he’s not the one who plays. So, apart from Steve Cishek, the bullpen is a mess. So is the rotation beyond Fernandez and Alvarez. And if you can’t get people out, you aren’t going to win many games.

Off-Season Needs: There are really too many to list, but with a team featuring so many young players, veteran leadership must be a priority. Logan Morrison, while entertaining on Twitter and affable otherwise, is probably not the guy to depend on for that. The Red Sox just won a World Series on the strength of character acquisitions like Shane Victorino and Mike Napoli. The Marlins are nowhere near a World Series, but picking up a couple of poor man’s versions of Victorino and Napoli to help show the young guys the proper way to play and respect the game will be valuable to their development. You know, so the front office can still trade them for a bag of batting practice balls and two cans of Skoal once they’re stars.

2014 Outlook: Ummmm, poor. Some of the young guys may start to develop and you may see a slight uptick in the win column, but triple digit losses are once again a very real possibility.

New York Mets 2013 Off-Season Preview

Strengths:  The future.  The Mets don’t have a ton of talent right now, especially with Matt Harvey out for the year with Tommy John Surgery, but there is plenty to be excited about.  Zach Wheeler is an excellent pitcher and Travis D’Arnaud will get his first full year behind the plate at the big league level.  Noah Syndergard will be up this coming year and he looks like he will be an excellent starter giving the Mets a great young rotation.  Brandon Nimmo is a couple years away, but he is a building block for the future in the outfield.  The Mets also seemed to find something in Eric Young Jr. late last season.

Weaknesses: The offense is going to struggle.  Juan Lagares is best served as a utility outfielder, not a starting center fielder.  Lucas Duda and Ike Davis have proven they are not the answer for the Mets, and while Josh Satin hit one of the hardest balls I have ever seen hit when I was in high school, he is a fringe average big leaguer.

Off-Season Needs: The Mets need to decide what time frame they are working on.  Are they going to be legit contenders in 2015 or 2016.  If they don’t expect to be contenders until 2016, they may want to consider shopping David Wright.  He has had health concerns, and is no lock to be an elite player come the time the Mets are contenders.  Getting a couple upper minor league offensive prospects could be a good move to ensure they don’t let a young and talented pitching staff be wasted away without a competitive offense.

2014 Projection:  The Mets will not be competitive in 2014, but that is ok.  Come 2015 they should be about a .500 team and could be a real contender by 2016.  Things are looking up, just not this coming year.

You can follow Shaun Kernahan on twitter @shaunkernahan, add him to your network on Google, and like Shaun on Facebook.