Category: baseball

Reactions to the new MiLB/MLB Agreement

Major League Baseball sent out a press release on Friday, February 12 announcing all 120 Minor League Baseball teams, their affiliations, and highlighting some features of the agreement. All 120 teams have agreed to 10-year deals, meaning there will not be the every-other year shuffle of affiliates so fans really start following a given team’s system that plays in their town for the next decade. Every team that was extended an invitation to be among the affiliated clubs accepted, with the only one that did leave some doubt being the Fresno Grizzlies as they dropped from Triple-A all the way down to Low-A.

Much has been made of the less than creative league names, but that is sure to change sooner than later, and there is plenty of question about how the 2021 season will look given the ongoing pandemic, but what about the long-term implications of the deal? Let’s dive into the good, the bad, the misleading, and some wish list items that has come out of the deal.

Good

10-year deal: This is big, the mass shuffle of affiliates is now a thing of the past and the clubs can truly market themselves as an extension of the big-league club they are affiliated with. No longer will we see a team like the Lancaster Jethawks (more on them in the bad) who were affiliated with five different big-league clubs in their 24 seasons.

Low-A Warm Weather: This one is easy to overlook, but the swapping of progression for most teams at the A ball level makes much more sense now compared to the past. No longer will we see players make their full season debut, in April, in Ohio or Michigan, or Wisconsin, instead they will be in Florida, California, or the Carolinas. It may not seem like much, but there is enough of an adjustment for a high school draftee transitioning into pro ball without many having to pitch in near freezing temps for the first time.

Bad

42 Cities Removed: There are now 43 cities across the county that used to have an affiliated minor league club that don’t anymore. This means states like Colorado go from having multiple minor league teams to none, while states like Montana have no affiliated baseball of any kind in their state any longer. True, many have turned into summer collegiate leagues or independent teams, but a place like Lancaster, California lost their 25^th season to the pandemic and currently sit with no immediate plans to host a baseball team any longer.

Shortened Draft: The draft has been shortened from 40 rounds to 20. This is not a massive issue since the great majority of big-league ballplayers are either international signings or were drafted in the top five rounds, but it cuts the number of players who get to call themselves pros in half.

Misleading

Salary Increases: In the release, the first bullet point of the “many improvements” is a 38-72% increase in player salaries. This was much needed but is also highlights just how bad player salaries were. JJ Cooper of Baseball America helped crunch the numbers and Rookie level salaries (yes, there is still Rookie ball, but complex only) went from $290/week to $400/week. Both levels of A ball went from $290/week up to $500/week (the biggest jump of any level), while Double-A now gets paid $600/week compared to $350/week and Triple-A jumps to $700/week from the old rate of $502/week. Players only get paid during the season, so 6 months of A ball means a player makes roughly $13,500/year while Triple-A players make $18,200. Compare that to the Triple-A player who is on a big-league deal with a minimum wage of $570,500, which would be $21,942.331/week if paid out over the same time frame. This means one player could make more in a single week than another makes for an entire season.

Better Geographical Alignment: The release points out that, on average, Triple-A clubs are more than 200 miles closer to their MLB affiliate than previous seasons. For the most part this is an improvement, but there are still some outliers that stick out like a sore thumb. The Colorado Rockies Triple-A affiliate is still down in Albuquerque, New Mexico but their Double-A affiliate remains all the way out in Hartford, Connecticut. Then there is the High-A East which has five teams in the North Division and seven in the South Division that will include bus rides from Brooklyn, New York down to Rome, Georgia and back. Sure, scheduling will likely have those teams make stops at other clubs along the way, but that doesn’t exactly scream “better geographical alignment”.

Modernized Facilities: Part of the agreements between the Minor League and Major League teams included requirements for improvements, modernization, and general upgrades for fans, players, and staff alike. At first glance this doesn’t seem like it could be anything but a good, but let’s take a look at why so many ballparks need improvements. The old California league teams, now mostly consisting of the Low-A West division, saw Bakersfield and High Desert run to the Carolina League back in 2016. The remaining teams didn’t have commitments for more than a handful of years, makes it tough to commit to sinking millions into ballpark improvements. Then there is the Rocky Mountain Vibes, formerly the Colorado Springs Sky Sox, who saw their Triple-A team move to Amarillo only to be replaced by a short-season club, then be eliminated from affiliated ball all together. It is no surprise, with all those moving parts and without a long-term commitment, the owners of the ballpark didn’t dig up right field and insert better irrigation at a field that would rain out with the sun shining because water would merely pool in the outfield rather than drain.

Wish List

MiLB TV Everywhere: Now that MLB has taken over operations of MiLB and there are long term commitments, there is no reason every club shouldn’t have their own broadcast team. This would take some time, but part of the modernization of the ballparks should come with the addition of camera wells and a broadcast booth ready for TV. MLB Network could then pick a Game of the Week to air mid-week, mid-day to fill programing but also allow fans to see the stars of the future and highlight great minor league cities.

Televise the Draft League: The Draft League, an amateur summer league run by MLB in conjunction with Prep Baseball Report, still has many questions looming, and it is not technically MiLB affiliated, but should have its own broadcasting package included in MiLB.tv.

Conference/Division Naming Contests: One of the many fun aspects of Minor League Baseball is the naming rights contests for teams when they move or re-brand that sees fans submitting crazy names and voting on them to determine what the team’s moniker will be moving forward (see Rocket City Trash Pandas). Why not take a big negative out of the announcement (uninspired league/conference/division names) and turn it into a positive by opening it up to a fan vote?

Allow Loans: Ok, this may be a wild idea on the surface, but stay with me. Under the new schedule of a July draft, teams will likely negotiate future contracts (i.e., drafted in 2021 but the contract begins in 2022), so why not allow teams that make up the Indy ball circuit loan those college draftees? This allows teams to sign a player to a same year contract, reducing the negotiation struggles sure to come with agents and teams arguing over when the contract begins, and let Indy teams bid to pay the player’s salary that summer in exchange for them suiting up for those teams. This wouldn’t work for top of the draft guys, and high school picks will likely head to the complex leagues but sending the 15^th round college senior to the Missoula PaddleHeads helps strengthen the relationship with “partner leagues”.

The next twelve months will be fascinating to watch the minor league landscape settle in, but there are opportunities for Major League Baseball to better the game at the lower levels, and a season with so many moving parts as the 2021 season has is the perfect time to give it a shot.

MLB 2020 Season Projections

Baseball starts tonight and the playoff setup is still TBD. I have decided to put the seed number next to the division winners, then Wild Card spot 1-5 next to the potential Wild Card teams so you can see who makes it with standard 2 Wild Card scenarios, and who makes it based on the proposed 5 Wild Card scenario. With teams being separated by region in terms of schedule, it is worth noting I would consider the East to be the toughest, followed by the West, then the Central the easiest. In a traditional year, I would project the Pittsburgh Pirates to have the worst record in baseball, but the Central will allow them to win too many games to get the first pick in next year’s draft, so I project that to go to the Baltimore Orioles.

AL East

1) Tampa Bay Rays (3 seed in playoffs)

2) New York Yankees (1^st Wild Card)

3) Boston Red Sox (4^th Wild Card)

4) Toronto Blue Jays

5) Baltimore Orioles

AL Central

1) Cleveland Indians (1 seed in playoffs)

2) Minnesota Twins (2^nd Wild Card)

3) Chicago White Sox (5^th Wild Card)

4) Kansas City Royals

5) Detroit Tigers

AL West

1) Houston Astros (2 seed in playoffs)

2) Los Angeles Angels (3^rd Wild Card)

3) Oakland Athletics

4) Seattle Mariners

5) Texas Rangers

NL East

1) Atlanta Braves (2 seed in playoffs)

2) Washington Nationals (1^st Wild Card)

3) Philadelphia Phillies (2^nd Wild Card)

4) New York Mets (5^th Wild Card)

5) Miami Marlins

NL Central

1) Cincinnati Reds (3 seed in playoffs)

2) Milwaukee Brewers (4^th Wild Card)

3) Chicago Cubs

4) St. Louis Cardinals

5) Pittsburgh Pirates

NL West

1) Los Angeles Dodgers (1 seed in playoffs)

2) Arizona Diamondbacks (3^rd Wild Card)

3) San Diego Padres

4) Colorado Rockies

5) San Francisco Giants

World Series: Tampa Bay Rays over Los Angeles Dodgers

Why it’s OK Derek Jeter Didn’t get 100%

Derek Jeter getting into the Hall of Fame with all but one vote has sparked plenty of debate. There are many reasons for him to have gotten 100%, but I think him falling shy of unanimous is actually the correct result.

Let’s start with the arguments for being the second ever unanimous member of Cooperstown. The simple fact Mariano Rivera earned 100% of the votes a season ago has eliminated the argument of those who have come before not receiving 100% as an argument. Babe Ruth should have been 100%, but you can no longer not vote for someone on that argument. There is also no questioning Jeter’s Hall of Fame resume, so he should land on all the ballots on that argument alone.

Now, for the reasons the one voter who did not vote for him got it right. The argument since the results were announced has been Jeter is easily a top four shortstop of all-time. A top four guy at his position, not top four player all-time, so should a guy you can’t really argue was the best at his own position get 100%, I argue no. On that, he wasn’t the best player of his time, never winning an MVP, and you can argue he wasn’t the best at his position at any point of his career. Cal Ripken Jr. was better than Jeter early on, and Alex Rodriguez was already in the big leagues when Jeter debuted, and he was the better player most of, if not their entire careers.

Now, there has often been an argument to spread out votes to players who need a boost or to keep them on the ballot an extra year, but the ballot was rather weak this season so that isn’t a valid argument. Another issue with the vote is the fact it is a secret ballot. Baseball writers vote for the Hall of fame, yet their names and ballots are not made public. Those who are tasked with writing the story of baseball literally vote for the stories, yet they are not made to make their opinions public. This needs to change and that may make it more common to see 100% vote getters, or at least make those who don’t vote for a guy like Jeter explain themselves. The writer who did not vote for Jeter has a quality argument for not voting, but the fans of the game do deserve an explication.

Shaun’s MLB Mock Draft

First Round	Team	Pick
1	Tigers	Casey Mize, RHP, Auburn
2	Giants	Joey Bart, C, Georgia Tech
3	Phillies	Nick Madrigal, MIF, Oregon State
4	White Sox	Matt Liberatore, LHP, Mountain Ridge HS (AZ)
5	Reds	Alec Bohm, 1B, Wichita State
6	Mets	Brady Singer, RHP, Florida
7	Padres	Carter Stewart, RHP, Eau Gallie HS (FL)
8	Braves	Jonathan India, 3B, Florida
9	A’s	Cole Winn, RHP, Orange HS (CA)
10	Pirates	Nolan Gorman, 3B, Sandra Day O’Connor HS (AZ)
11	Orioles	Jared Kelenic, Waukesha West HS (WI)
12	Blue Jays	Trevor Larnach, OF, Oregon State
13	Marlins	Travis Swaggerty, OF, South Alabama
14	Mariners	Jackson Kowar, RHP, Florida
15	Rangers	Ryan Weathers, LHP, Loretto HS (TN)
16	Rays	Ryan Rolison, LHP, Ole Miss
17	Angels	Shane McClanahan, LHP, South Florida
18	Royals	Ethan Hankins, RHP, Forsyth Central HS (GA)
19	Cardinals	Connor Scott, OF, Plant HS (FL)
20	Twins	Logan Gilbert, RHP, Stetson
21	Brewers	Seth Beer, 1B/OF, Clemson
22	Rockies	Grayson Rodriguez, RHP, Central Heights HS (TX)
23	Yankees	Brice Turang, SS, Santiago HS (CA)
24	Cubs	Kumar Rocker, RHP, North Oconee HS (GA)
25	D-backs	Noah Naylor, C, St. Joan of Arc Catholic HS (CAN)
26	Red Sox	Tristan Casas, 1B, American Heritage HS (FL)
27	Nationals	Mason Denaburg, RHP, Merritt Island HS (FL)
28	Astros	Jake McCarthy, OF, Virginia
29	Indians	Cole Wilcox, RHP, Heritage HS (GA)
30	Dodgers	Jeremy Eierman, SS, Missouri State
Supplemental First Round
31	Rays	Steele Walker, OF, Oklahoma
32	Rays	Anthony Siegler, C, Cartersville HS (GA)
33	Royals	Nico Hoerner, SS, Stanford
34	Royals	Tristan Beck, RHP, Stanford
35	Indians	Jameson Hannah, OF, Dallas Baptist
Competitive Balance A
36	Pirates	J.T. Ginn, RHP, Brandon HS (MS)
37	Orioles	Adam Kloffenstein, RHP, Magnolia HS (TX)
38	Padres	Parker Meadows, OF, Grayson HS (GA)
39	D-backs	Nick Schnell, OF, Roncalli HS (IN)
40	Royals	Jordyn Adams, OF, Green Hope HS (NC)
41	Indians	Kris Bubic, LHP, Stanford
42	Rockies	Kyler Murray, OF, Oklahoma
43	Cardinals	Jordan Groshans, SS/3B, Magnolia HS (TX)
Second Round
44	Tigers	Xavier Edwards, SS, North Broward Prep (FL)
45	Giants	Blaine Knight, RHP, Arkansas
46	White Sox	Lenny Torres Jr., Beacon HS (NY)
47	Reds	Sean Hjelle, RHP, Kentucky
48	Mets	Alek Thomas, OF, Mt. Carmel HS (IL)
49	Braves	Jeremiah Jackson, SS, St. Lukes (AL)
50	A’s	Greyson Jenista, OF/1B, Wichita State
51	Pirates	Cadyn Grenier, SS, Oregon State
52	Blue Jays	Will Banfield, C, Brookwood HS (GA)
53	Marlins	Mike Siani, OF, William Pen Charter (PA)
54	Mariners	Daniel Lynch, LHP, Virginia
55	Rangers	Aaron Hernandez, RHP, Texas A&M – Corpus Christi
56	Rays	Gunnar Hoglund, RHP, Fivay HS (NC)
57	Angels	Konnor Pilkington, LHP, Mississippi State
58	Royals	Matt McClain, MIF, Beckam HS (CA)
59	Twins	Kyle Isbel, OF, UNLV
60	Brewers	Jonathan Ornelas, SS, Kellis HS (AZ)
61	Yankees	Griffin Conine, OF, Duke
62	Cubs	Grant Little, SS, Texas Tech
63	D-backs	Colton Eastman, RHP, Cal State Fullerton
64	Red Sox	Owen White, RHP, Jesse C. Carson HS (NC)
65	Nationals	Durbin Feltman, RHP, TCU
66	Astros	Trey Riley, RHP, Logan (IL) JC
67	Indians	Griffin Roberts, RHP, Wake Forest
68	Dodgers	Joe Gray Jr., OF, Hattiesburg HS (MS)
Competitive Balance B
69	Marlins	Nick Decker, OF, Seneca HS (NJ)
70	A’s	Tyler Frank, MIF, Florida Atlantic
71	Rays	Zach Watson, OF, LSU
72	Reds	Cole Sands, RHP, Florida State
73	Brewers	Ryder Green, OF, Karns HS (TN)
74	Padres	Tim Cate, LHP, Uconn
Supplemental Second Round
75	Cardinals	Terrin Vavra, SS, Minnesota
76	Rockies	Cal Raleigh, C, Florida State
77	Cubs	Osiris Johnson, SS, Encinal HS (GA)
78	Cubs	Zack Hess, RHP, LSU

MLB 2015 AL Central Preview

After earning a Wild Card spot last year and going on a wild run into the World Series, the Kansas City Royals have lost James Shields, Billy Butler, and Nori Aoki, but don’t seem to have taken much of a step back at all. Their pitching staff will be lead by young phenom Yordano Ventura and they still have the best bullpen in baseball. Alex Rios looks good this spring, and could be a real offensive weapon if his thumb is healthy (I have my doubts), while Kendrys Morales looks to bounce back. The Cleveland Indians only big off-season addition was Brandon Moss, but their relatively young team will likely only get better. Last year Corey Kluber was a surprise Cy Young candidate, and they may have another this year in Carlos Carrasco. The Chicago White Sox made moves bringing in Jeff Samardzija and signed Melky Cabrera. Avisail Garcia has looked good in the spring, as have rookies Micah Johnson and Carlos Rodon. Rodon will start in Triple-A, but will be in the rotation this season and has the potential to be dominant while Johnson will likely be the opening day second baseman and number nine hitter. Both will improve the club that already had an underrated pitching staff and has a very good mix of power and speed. The long time favorites, the Detroit Tigers, are only getting older. Victor Martinez and Miguel Cabrera are coming off surgery this off-season and Justin Verlander will start the year on the DL. They brought in Yoenis Cespedes, Anthony Gose, and Shaen Greene, but the bullpen that was their downfall last year is virtually unchanged. The Minnesota Twins have brought back fan favorite Torii Hunter, but are a clear bottom of the barrel in the division. Ervin Santana will miss 80 games due to a PED suspension, and the team really lacks a true star. This may be the year uber prospects Byron Buxton, Miguel Sano, and multiple highly touted pitching prospects make their big league debuts, so at least Twins fans have that to look forward to.

Projected Winner: This may be the toughest division to pick a winner, but the Indians are the favorite for me. They might have the best rotation in the division outside of Chicago, and they could also end up as the best offensive team in the division.

Is there a Wild Card, perhaps? I think it is almost a certainty one of the Wild Card spots comes from the Central, but which team is tough. Based on pure talent, the Tigers should be the team, but I think they finish fourth in the division. That leaves the White Sox and Royals. I would not be shocked if both teams earn a Wild Card bid, and the rest of the league should be scared if it is the White Sox as their potential playoff rotation could be the best in baseball. In the end, I think the Royals get the only Wild Card bid from the Central, but it will be close.

MLB 2015 NL East Preview

There isn’t much intrigue to speak of here. The Nationals will probably have the division all but locked up by the all-star break. As a whole, the NL East comes down to groups of teams trending rapidly in opposite directions. The Nationals added the top free agent pitcher available, The Marlins locked up Giancarlo Stanton for 68 years and 984 billion dollars, and picked up some productive pieces in Dee Gordon, Mike Morse, and Dan Haren. The Mets didn’t add a ton apart from Michael Cuddyer, but the healthy returns of Matt Harvey, David Wright, and Bobby Parnell, figure to help. And then there’s the other guys…

The Phillies are looking to…they’re in a…they should probably… Ok, let’s just call it what it is. If Ruben Amaro had a shred of sense, he’d have gotten what he could for aging slugger Ryan Howard, still productive veteran Chase Utley, and now injured hurler Cliff Lee last year, or at the latest, this off-season. I don’t know that trading your best pitcher is ever the answer, but if it was, Cole Hamels would also fetch the best return of prospects.

Then there’s the Braves. I’m not sure they needed to blow everything up, but at least they committed. Out with Justin Upton, Evan Gattis, Jason Heyward, and in with… Shelby Miller and a bunch of guys they hope to see in a couple years. While the future may be brighter for one of these teams, this season figures to be a long one for fans of both.

Projected Winner: The Nationals. I get angry at weird things sometimes. I don’t know why. I just do. Last year, the Nats had a pitcher win 15 games and sport a sub-3.00 ERA. Moreover, his fielding independent pitching (FIP) supported those numbers being reflective of excellent pitching, rather than luck. And he isn’t good enough to crack their rotation. What. The. Fudgesickles? My point is this. If Tanner Roark isn’t good enough to crack your starting rotation, you either have an embarrassment of riches in starting pitching, or you have no clue who he is. So the Nationals will win this division. Because they have a guy who could secretly trade places with Zack Greinke and very few people would notice… and he’s not good enough to make their rotation. Ridiculous.

Is there a Wild Card, perhaps?: If you asked me this question and no form of bet hedging was an option, I’d say yes. I think the Marlins have done enough to improve the roster to be in the conversation, and if Jose Fernandez successfully returns from TJ surgery in June, I think they have enough to make a run. I also think Christian Yelich is an all-star this year. You heard it here first. Unless you heard it somewhere else first, in which case you heard it here second. The Mets might also be a part of the conversation, but ultimately I think they’ll fade.

MLB 2015 AL East Preview

The AL East is as intriguing a division as there is in baseball. The two big teams in the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees both have massive needs. The Red Sox pitching staff is barely middle of the road, and the catcher who was expected to make each of them better, Christian Vazquez, is out for the year with TJ surgery. Meanwhile the Yankees have yet another old/injury prone lineup and the distraction that is Alex Rodriguez. Their pitching staff may be improved, but the depth in the middle infield, pitching staff, and behind the plate leave a lot to be desired. The Tampa Bay Rays trail only the Oakland Athletics in roster turnover it seems this off-season, but have an interesting squad. They open the season with several injury concerns, but if the young pitching staff can stay healthy and pitch up to their potential, it could be the best staff in the East by far. The Baltimore Orioles are still waiting on Matt Wieters to come all the way back from TJ and JJ Hardy will enter the year on the DL. Chris Davis has one game left on his suspension, but he has a therapeutic exemption to go back on Adderall so time will tell if he returns to his 2013 form. The Toronto Blue Jay will roll out six rookies with major roles to start the season. All have tremendous upside (except maybe Devon Travis who just has solid upside) but there is obviously plenty of risk with such a young roster.

Projected Winner: The risk just might pay off for the Jays. They traded Brett Lawrie for Josh Donaldson this off-season, and signed the best catcher on the market In Russell Martin. Justin Smoak will look to resurrect his career in the friendly confines of the Rogers Centre, and there might not be a better trio in the middle of an order than Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion, and Donaldson. If their pitching can hold up, there is a chance the Blue Jays not only win the division, but run away with it.

Is there a Wild Card, perhaps? Probably not, but there are some situations that I could see a team sneaking in. The division is rather weak as a whole, so if a team like Tampa Bay or Baltimore perform really well within the division, they could put up enough wins to sneak in as a Wild Card. The bottom of the division will likely be the Red Sox and Yankees, unless the Red Sox move some of their quality pitching prospects and outfield depth to improve both their rotation and bullpen. If they get a guy like Cole Hamels and a bullpen piece or two in July, it could be enough to catapult them up to Wild Card contention.

MLB 2015 NL Central Preview

No shortage of noise here this off-season either. The Cubs appear to be serious about making a run, after signing Jon Lester, trading for Miguel Montero, and bringing in Joe Maddon, without even the slightest hint of skullduggery, to manage. Nope, Rick Renteria didn’t get boned one bit there. The road to the NL Central crown still runs through St. Louis, though, because it always freaking does. That pitching is just better top to bottom than the rest of the division. The Pirates have found a way to make things interesting in recent years, but the departure of Russell Martin north of the border is going to hurt. It’s hard to tell if the Reds are looking to be a factor or slowly edging into a rebuilding era. If they’re trying to add young pieces, I’d have started by flipping productive veterans Brandon Phillips and Joey Votto rather than staff ace Mat Latos, but what do I know. And you have the team from the land of beer and sausage races.

Quick, how does a team with two of the best all-around players in the game (Carlos Gomez and Jonathan Lucroy) and a former PED-enhanced MVP who is still productive without all the junk project to finish last? Well, turns out, you have to pitch the ball too. I’d love this Brewers team, Ryan Braun notwithstanding, if they just had the pitching to keep them in games.

Projected Winner: The Cardinals. Because this is America. And three things are constant. Death, taxes, and the Cards winning the NL Central. Why? Pitching wins ballgames and they have it in spades. You could nitpick a little bit and say they have some holes in the lineup, and Matt Holliday and Yadier Molina aren’t getting any younger. But as they say, you don’t have to be faster than the bear, you just have to be faster than your buddy. And they’re faster.

Is there a Wild Card, perhaps?: This is where the real intrigue lies. Slide any of the teams other than the Cards into one of the other National League divisions and you can make an argument that they’re a legitimate Wild Card contender. However, as it stands, they’re all going to beat up on one another 19 times each over the course of the season. The other divisions have walk-over teams, where the big boys can realistically hope to go 15-4 or even 16-3. No such luxury here though. So if all plays out the way I think it will, you’ll be looking at a division winner with a win total in the high 80s and the rest of the gang between 78 and 85. And that may not be good enough to surpass the second place team from the NL West or East that has some weak opposition to beat up on. Is the NL’s deepest division really going to be its least represented in the postseason? I don’t know, but I consulted with a fortune cookie and the little paper inside said I was destined for traveling to exotic locations…so there’s that.

MLB 2015 National League West Preview

Well, this division certainly made a lot of noise in the offseason, didn’t it? San Diego acquired seemingly every available slugging outfielder not named Cespedes. The Dodgers retooled the front office and subsequently, a large chunk of the roster. The overachieving Giants and their best-in-the-game manager Bruce Bochy are coming off yet another surprising World Series championship.

But let’s start with the bottom. The Diamondbacks and Rockies were terrible last year, and that doesn’t figure to change. For the 20 something year in a row the Rockies still don’t have any pitching, and even if Jon Gray and Eddie Butler break out, it’s not enough. The D Backs are now led by Chip Hale, and have added Cuban slugger Yasmany Tomas, and while some of their young guys (see: Enciarte, Ender; Peralta, David; Owings, Chris) look like future studs, they’re still a couple of years away. Neither of these teams will factor.

With only a hint of sarcasm, the poor Giants. They lose the Panda to free agency, Hunter Pence to a broken arm for a while, Angel Pagan’s back is reportedly a concern, and their rotation is counting heavily on Tim Hudson and Jake Peavy, combined age over 70. Bochy can work magic, but look for a big step back this year. The Padres were serious about improving their putrid offense. Enter Justin Upton, Matt Kemp, Wil Myers, and Derek Norris, and to a lesser degree, Will Middlebrooks. Their starting pitching remains a strength, if on potential alone. They might very well miss Huston Street, however, at the back end of ballgames. Very quietly, he has been baseball’s most effective closer for the last three years.

Projected Winner: The Dodgers. They just have a spectacularly good starting rotation, even if the criminally underrated Hyun Jin Ryu’s barking shoulder keeps him out the first month. There are very few lineup questions, if any, (the Pads still don’t know if Yonder Alonso, Tommy Medica, Carlos Quentin, or a Partridge in a Pear Tree will be starting at first base, or whether its Middlebrooks or Yangervis Solarte at third) and the departures of Brian Wilson and Chris Perez give Don Mattingly fewer catastrophic options to insist on using in high leverage situations out of the pen – even if closer Kenley Jansen misses the first 4-6 weeks after foot surgery. The Padres will keep it interesting, but probably finish four or five games back at the end of the season.

Is there a Wild Card, perhaps?: It’s not outside the realm of imagination, that’s for sure. The Padres have a good shot. Here’s why: The NL Central has the Cardinals, Pirates, and an improved Cubbies team that figure to contend. The Reds are still potent enough to play some spoiler, and the Brewers, while probably ticketed for a last place finish, shouldn’t be walkovers. That division could beat up on itself and struggle record-wise. Meanwhile, teams like the Padres and, perhaps, the Marlins in the NL East can fatten up against legitimate bottom dwellers in their divisions and lock down one of the two wild cards. Will they? The magic eight ball says check back with us in July for a clearer picture.

IBWAA Awards Ballot

Both the BBWAA and the IBWAA have announced all their awards this past week. I am a voter for the IBWAA, and it was certainly interesting to see how my ballot varied from the final vote, although I don’t have any major gripes with any of the awards, outside of maybe Manger of the Year. Fellow IBWAA member and ESPN SweetSpot Blogger Dave Scheonfield did an excellent job breaking down the votes, so I will more speak to the winners and my ballot.

The top reliever matched my votes as I too had Greg Holland and Craig Kimbrel atop my ballot. In the AL, I chose Dellin Betances and Zach Britton to round out my ballot. Betances was a dominant late inning reliever for the Yankees and looking past the completely overrated save statistic, he was as good as there was, but Holland was simply the best. In the NL, I also gave votes to Mark Melancon and Tyler Clippard. Melancon was the best reliever to me on a very good bullpen, and Clippard seemed to be the lone reliever that remained consistent throughout the year for the Washington Nationals.

For Manager of the year, Buck Showalter won in the AL, who was also my top choice. Showalter was able to help lead the Orioles to the AL East title despite major injuries/ suspensions to his top two players, Manny Machado and Chris Davis. I also selected Mike Scioscia despite the fact I largely don’t agree with his managing style, you can’t ignore his success over his tenure with the Angels and his team’s improbable division title. Lloyd Mclendon got my third vote as the work he did to keep the Mariners competitive all season was impressive.

In the NL, Matt Williams won, but he didn’t even crack my ballot. Outside of the Dodgers, the Nationals had the most talent of any team in the NL. Williams made the headlines with his dealings with Bryce Harper far too often. My top choice was Bruce Bochy, and yes this was before the postseason (our ballots were turned in September 28^th). Bochy somehow keeps the Giants competitive regardless of talent and injury woes. Also making my ballot were Clint Hurdle and Mike Matheny.

The Rookie of the Year winners were quite simple. Jose Abreu and Jacob DeGrom were clearly the best in their respective leagues; the trouble was filling out the other two spots. In the AL, there were too many options to choose from, while the NL there weren’t enough. Masahiro Tanaka was a popular recipient of votes, but his injury shortened season just didn’t cut it for me. Coming in second for me in the AL was Yordano Ventura, who was purely dominant at times, which he continued to show into the postseason. My third vote in the AL was Danny Santana who flew under the radar of casual baseball fans, as he plays for the woeful Minnesota Twins, but he hit .319 in 101 games while stealing 20 bags and playing solid defense at both shortstop and centerfield.

In the NL, Billy Hamilton came in third on my ballot but, while his numbers leap off the page and he hit better than many expected, his season as a whole was a bit disappointing, but still good enough to crack my ballot. I was happy to see fellow IBWAA voters recognized the person I had second on my ballot, even if he finished third in the IBWAA vote. While playing for the awful Arizona Diamondbacks, Ender Inciarte has an excellent year.

Was there any question as to who would win the NL Cy Young? Of course Clayton Kershaw ran away with the vote, being selected as a unanimous winner. The next two on my ballot were obvious as well, Adam Wainwright and Johnny Cueto, but that is where I think I differed from most. Fourth on my ballot was Jake Arrieta, who seemed to take a no-hitter into the fifth of every outing this season, and wound up with a 2.53 ERA while striking out more than 9.5 per nine innings of work. My fifth and final spot in the NL was a Washington Nationals pitcher, but not the one that jumps out to most people. To me, and according to Baseball Reference’s WAR, the best pitcher for the Nationals this season was Tanner Roark and his 2.85 ERA and walking less than two per nine innings.

In the AL, Felix Hernandez won the vote, but my top pitcher was the same as the BBWAA, Corey Kluber. I actually selected Chris Sale ahead of Hernandez, but all three had excellent seasons. My final two spots on the ballot went to current free agents, Jon Lester and Max Scherzer.

In the MVP voting, Mike Trout was a pretty simple choice. We submitted ten names for the MVP votes, so let me run those off in order; Trout, Victor Martinez, Miguel Cabrera, Josh Donaldson, Alex Gordon, Nelson Cruz, Jose Altuve, Robinson Cano, Jose Bautista, and Michael Brantley. The one that jumped out to me when crunching the numbers and selecting my top MVP votes was Altuve. He led all of baseball in hits with 225; the only other player to reach the 200 mark was Brantley who hit it right on the nose. Altuve broke the Houston Astros team mark for hits in a season, eclipsing a player who should make the Hall of Fame this year, Craig Biggio. Altuve also led all of baseball in batting average and the AL in steals.

For the NL, Kershaw won the vote, but he didn’t even make my ballot. I have always been pro-pitchers on the MVP ballot until I had to fill one out myself. This is surely a topic that will be discussed on this coming weekend’s podcast here on The Stain, but I just couldn’t put Kershaw on my ballot. He was clearly the best player in baseball, but having to go 10 deep on the ballot made me realize that Kershaw would be the only pitcher that cracked the ballot in either league. This is simply because it is nearly impossible to compare a pitcher to a hitter, and it also wouldn’t be right to give the top spot to a pitcher but not have a pitcher land anywhere else on my ballot. It was then that I decided that my MVP ballot would be for position players only.

My votes went as follows; Andrew McCutchen, Jonathan Lucroy, Anthony Rendon, Giancarlo Stanton, Buster Posey, Yasiel Puig, Josh Harrison, Jason Heyward, Hunter Pence, and Matt Holiday. The NL voting was tough once I removed pitchers from the conversation. Stanton probably would have come out on top for me had it not been for his incredibly unfortunate and ugly injury to end his season early. Yadier Molina didn’t even make my ballot, despite me constantly trying to find a spot for him, but his injury plagued season just didn’t allow him to play enough to make my ballot. In the end it really felt like a war of attrition, but McCutchen won out for me.