Strengths:  Offense.  The Baltimore Orioles have a very solid lineup.  Assuming Manny Machado is back for opening day, the left side of the Orioles infield is second to none.  I don’t think Chris Davis was a fluke, he won’t have a season quite like this past one, but he is a legit power hitter moving forward.  Jonathan Schoop is a young second baseman that should make an impact at some point next season, while Matt Weiters is an above average catcher and Adam Jones is a well above average center fielder.

Weaknesses:  The most glaring weakness is top level starting pitching.  In fact, they could use mid-level starting pitching.  In a division that has the likes of David Price (for now), CC Sabathia, Jon Lester, and R.A. Dickey at the top of rotations, projecting out an opening day starter of Miguel Gonzalez or Chris Tillman don’t exactly leave anyone shaking in their boots.

Off-Season Needs: Beyond the desperate need for starting pitching, there are two glaring needs for the Orioles.  Nick Markakis is still a suitable right fielder, but left field could use a real upgrade and the DH spot is painfully weak for the O’s.  Kendrys Morales would be a natural fit at DH, but considering he was offered a qualifying offer from the Mariners and signing him would cost the Orioles a first round pick, they may be best served resigning Nate McClouth and Mike Morse rather than dropping big money and a draft pick on Morales.

2014 Projection:  I am a big fan of what the Orioles have done the past two years, but I see a dip in production in 2014.  They could easily finish fourth in the division.  They have the talent to finish around .500, but the lack of top end starting pitching and the lack of impact bats at positions of need for the Orioles leaves the upside of the team a bit tempered.

You can follow Shaun Kernahan on twitter @shaunkernahan, add him to your network on Google, and like Shaun on Facebook.

 

Strengths: Well, they’re the defending champs, right? In addition to that, they have excellent starting pitching and a well-balanced offense that knows how to use the ballpark that it plays in. From a front office perspective, GM Ben Cherington is decisive and unafraid, as evidenced by the huge blockbuster trade from last season with the Dodgers that one could actually argue benefitted both teams.

Weaknesses: It’s hard to poke holes in the armor of the team that just won the World Series, but no team is perfect. So, the bullpen, apart from Koji Uehara, is a question mark. But mainly, a lot of key parts are going to be testing the market, if not departing for different colored pastures (doesn’t get greener than winning, does it??? Unless you use green in terms of money I suppose…). Is Jackie Bradley ready to inherit Jacoby Ellsbury’s spot in center if the latter departs? Assuming Stephen Drew is leaving, is Xander Bogaerts ready to handle shortstop? What if Mike Napoli leaves? Jarrod Saltalamacchia?

Off-Season Needs: Well, for one, fill some of the holes I just mentioned in the roster. More specifically, you need some veteran help on the left side of the infield if Bogaerts needs more seasoning or Will Middlebrooks regresses again. A right handed thumper to play first base part time wouldn’t hurt either. And an honest conversation with catcher David Ross, who has always been criminally underrated for what he brings to a team. If at age 36 he can take on more playing time than the 36 starts he got last year, losing Saltalamacchia won’t hurt as much.

2014 Outlook: Playoffs, most likely. I just can’t shake the notion that this team overachieved a little. Top to bottom, there are more talented rosters out there, and a repeat title is unlikely. More likely, in my opinion, is an ALCS loss to the Tigers in 6 games. Still, what a great two year run that would be just one year removed from a disaster.

Strengths:  Payroll.  The Yankees have a ton of work to do this off-season and their ability to spend money will prove to be their biggest strength.  One surprise is the fact the greatest closer of all time retiring might not hurt the bullpen.  David Robertson can easily become one of the best closers in the game next year.

Weaknesses: There is no telling if Derek Jeter will be healthy enough to ever play again, Mark Teixeira spent the majority of 2013 on the DL, Alex Rodriguez could be suspended all year, Curtis Granderson is a free agent, as is Robinson Cano.  The Yankees farm system is not filled with many prospects that are ready to make an impact this coming year, so they will have to look elsewhere for help.

Off-Season Needs:  The first thing the Yankees need to do is secure Robinson Cano.  They only have three legit starting pitchers, so that is also a major need.  The team is getting very old, so signing some of the younger free agents, or trading for younger players is a must.  Unfortunately, the lone quality free agent on the market under the age of 30 is Jarrod Saltalamacchia, and catcher is one of the smallest concerns the Yankees have this off-season.  I would also be surprised if the Yankees don’t go all in on Japanese pitcher Masahiro Tanaka.

2014 Projection:  The Yankees are in a rough spot.  Their roster is old and injury prone, and they don’t have the youth coming up anytime soon.  2013 might have been the start of the Yankees loose spending catching up with them, and could very easily finish last in the AL East in 2014.

You can follow Shaun Kernahan on twitter @shaunkernahan, add him to your network on Google, and like Shaun on Facebook.

 

Strengths: The Marlins have some of baseball’s elite young big league talent, starting with Jose Fernandez, who figures to be a part of the Cy Young conversation for the next decade plus. Christian Yelich makes a nice outfield bookend to Giancarlo Stanton, assuming the latter isn’t traded in the very near future. Adeiny Hechvarria is interesting at shortstop too, and their farm system is considered to be pretty flush with legitimate prospects. To be filed under “Intriguing,” Marcell Ozuna showed flashes before fading in 2013 and pitcher Henderson Alvarez fired a no-hitter at the end of the season.

Weaknesses: Ownership and front office. Jeffrey Loria is a joke of an owner, if not a criminal for the way he swindled the people of Miami. He’s every bit as much of a joke for the way he undermined manager Mike Redmond when he essentially forced the manager to change his decision on who was to start the first game of a double header between the rookie, Fernandez, and veteran Ricky Nolasco. The fear I would have if I were a Marlins fan is that even if most of the top prospects currently in the system turn out to be good players, no free agent of any note will ever want to come to Miami. Just look at the way Loria is notorious for blowing up rosters. Also, just ask Jose Reyes and Mark Buehrle what they think of him. But I digress, he’s not the one who plays. So, apart from Steve Cishek, the bullpen is a mess. So is the rotation beyond Fernandez and Alvarez. And if you can’t get people out, you aren’t going to win many games.

Off-Season Needs: There are really too many to list, but with a team featuring so many young players, veteran leadership must be a priority. Logan Morrison, while entertaining on Twitter and affable otherwise, is probably not the guy to depend on for that. The Red Sox just won a World Series on the strength of character acquisitions like Shane Victorino and Mike Napoli. The Marlins are nowhere near a World Series, but picking up a couple of poor man’s versions of Victorino and Napoli to help show the young guys the proper way to play and respect the game will be valuable to their development. You know, so the front office can still trade them for a bag of batting practice balls and two cans of Skoal once they’re stars.

2014 Outlook: Ummmm, poor. Some of the young guys may start to develop and you may see a slight uptick in the win column, but triple digit losses are once again a very real possibility.

Strengths:  The future.  The Mets don’t have a ton of talent right now, especially with Matt Harvey out for the year with Tommy John Surgery, but there is plenty to be excited about.  Zach Wheeler is an excellent pitcher and Travis D’Arnaud will get his first full year behind the plate at the big league level.  Noah Syndergard will be up this coming year and he looks like he will be an excellent starter giving the Mets a great young rotation.  Brandon Nimmo is a couple years away, but he is a building block for the future in the outfield.  The Mets also seemed to find something in Eric Young Jr. late last season.

Weaknesses: The offense is going to struggle.  Juan Lagares is best served as a utility outfielder, not a starting center fielder.  Lucas Duda and Ike Davis have proven they are not the answer for the Mets, and while Josh Satin hit one of the hardest balls I have ever seen hit when I was in high school, he is a fringe average big leaguer.

Off-Season Needs: The Mets need to decide what time frame they are working on.  Are they going to be legit contenders in 2015 or 2016.  If they don’t expect to be contenders until 2016, they may want to consider shopping David Wright.  He has had health concerns, and is no lock to be an elite player come the time the Mets are contenders.  Getting a couple upper minor league offensive prospects could be a good move to ensure they don’t let a young and talented pitching staff be wasted away without a competitive offense.

2014 Projection:  The Mets will not be competitive in 2014, but that is ok.  Come 2015 they should be about a .500 team and could be a real contender by 2016.  Things are looking up, just not this coming year.

You can follow Shaun Kernahan on twitter @shaunkernahan, add him to your network on Google, and like Shaun on Facebook.

Strengths: Dominic Brown has stepped up and looks like he could be a real star for the Philadelphia Phillies for years to come. There, the strengths have been covered. Ok, maybe a bit of a pessimistic look at the team. They do still have Cole Hamels and Cliff Lee at the top of the rotation and Jonathan Papelbon to close out games. It also looks like Darin Ruf will be able to be a solid bat.

Weaknesses: Roy Halladay is gone, Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley, and Ryan Howard aren’t the Rollins, Utley, and Howard that were at the heart of the team that dominated the NL East for years. They have no big league starters currently on their roster that are legit big league starters behind Lee and Hamels and their long time backstop Carlos Ruiz is a free agent. Cody Asche looked good late in the season at third, but he does not appear to be the future of at that position.

Off-Season Needs: The Phillies need to accept the fact they are no longer contenders and are in a rebuilding mode. Ryan Howard has a contract that makes him impossible to move, but if they can make a deal to add high minors prospects for Utley and/or Rollins, it is time to make those moves. Maikel Franco is the likely future at third base and could be on the big league roster this year, and Jesse Biddle is a legit pitcher who could break camp with the big league team, but those are really the only impact prospects that are anywhere close to big league ready. The Phillies need to add cheap veterans to fill roles this year, and make deals to bring in some young talent, otherwise they will keep the cellar warm for years.

2014 Projection: If the Phillies are not drafting in the top 10 in 2015 I will be shocked. They are the worst team in the East and they should lose 90 games in 2014.

You can follow Shaun Kernahan on twitter @shaunkernahan, add him to your network on Google, and like Shaun on Facebook.

Strengths: Pitching, pitching, and more pitching. The Braves have an embarrassment of riches when it comes to arms. From the top of the rotation to the end of the bullpen, they were outstanding in 2013. And that was despite serious injuries to Tim Hudson, Johnny Venters, and Eric O’Flaherty. It may be a while before someone not named Clayton Kershaw wins a Cy Young Award, but that someone may be Julio Teheran. But, as they say, you need to score runs to win (not sure if they really say that, but it makes sense if you think about it). Freddie Freeman is a perennial MVP candidate, and Andrelton Simmons is the embodiment of young stud shortstop.

 

Weaknesses: Call me old fashioned, but in the era of SABRmetrics, I’m not ready to completely cast batting average aside. Sure, it’s not the be all end all measuring stick it once was, but you just can’t have too many key guys hovering around the Mendoza line and expect to come up with enough two-out run-scoring hits to win playoff series’. They were counting on big production from guys like Dan Uggla and BJ Upton, and just didn’t get it.

 

Off-Season Needs: Well, they should probably figure out the catching situation. They’ve made a qualifying offer to Brian McCann, so there’s that. If they sign him long-term, it sure turns the slugging Evan Gattis into attractive trade bait for an AL contender who could use a DH/part-time catcher. They could use him to deal with the second base issue, or as added incentive for a team to accept the catastrophic contract of Upton. And if they let Tim Hudson walk, they should probably replace his veteran leadership on the staff with someone like…oh hell, just bring Hudson back on an incentive-laden one year deal.

 

2014 Projection: NL East Champs. It’s not a tough division and despite some chinks in the armor, this is a tough team. They pitch. They field. They slug. I don’t think they’re World Series caliber at this point, but 95 wins is a very achievable goal.

Strengths:  The Washington Nationals have an excellent base on which to build upon.  Bryce Harper is a legit middle of the order bat, and rookie Anthony Rendon has a chance to be something special at either third or second base.  The top of the rotation is as good as any in baseball with Steven Strasburgh, Gio Gonzalez, and Jordan Zimmerman.

Weaknesses:  The Nationals fell victim to injury and poor pitching in the bullpen in 2013.  Denard Span is an excellent defensive center fielder, but offers just about nothing offensively.  Jason Werth showed signs of being a really good baseball player again, but he is completely inconsistent when it comes to staying healthy.  Ryan Zimmerman is the big question mark for this team.  He is a constant injury risk, and at times showed signs of the yips when throwing the ball from third base.  His future might be at first base, which would allow Rendon to move back to his natural position of third, but leave a hole at second and an asset in Adam LaRoche on the bench.  The Nationals also do not have a quality nor long term answer at catcher.

Off-Season Needs: The first need is to get this team healthy.  In terms of external help, the Nationals should go after a catcher.  They have not been shy about spending money for key free agents, so look for them to be a big player in the Brian McCann sweepstakes, but if they miss out, they could go after Jarrod Saltalamacchia.  They also need to add a pitcher or two to the back end of their rotation.

2014 Projection: It is easy to fall back into the mindset leading into the 2013 season and anoint the Nationals as World Series favorites, and while that is not where I would put them, they certainly have a shot to make it there.  I believe they are the second best team in the NL East, right behind the Atlanta Braves, and have a great shot at getting a Wild Card berth. 

You can follow Shaun Kernahan on twitter @shaunkernahan, add him to your network on Google, and like Shaun on Facebook.

In a word, maybe. After the crazy ending to Game 3 of the World Series, in which the winning run scored on a controversial obstruction call, it’s sure to be debated.

Here’s why the call by umpire Jim Joyce may have been correct. If a fielder impedes the progress of a baserunner while not in the process of attempting to field the ball, obstruction may be called. Will Middlebrooks dove to his left to try to save Jarrod Saltalamachia’s errant throw to third attempting to get Allan Craig. When the throw went into the outfield, Craig tripped over Middlebrooks while attempting to score. By all appearances, Craig would easily have beaten left fielder, Daniel Nava’s throw home. By the letter of the law, the call appears correct.

Here’s why the call may have been incorrect. Middlebrooks was inside the baseline when Craig tripped over him. Craig, therefore, was also inside the baseline. You could certainly make the argument that the fielder has the right to field his position. Also, Craig took a step inside when he rose to his feet and attempted to score, putting Middlebrooks in his path. You could also say, therefore, that Craig was at least partially to blame for the contract.

The Other Things to Consider

On the replay you could clearly see Middlebrooks raise his feet, causing Craig to trip. Nobody but Middlebrooks knows if that was intentional, or if he was simply attempting to get back to his feet. I will say this though, my wife is looking at me really funny because I just flopped down on my stomach and then tried to get back to my feet several times as quickly as I could to see if at any point in time, my feet would come up like Middlebrooks’ did. And they didn’t.

Joe Torre, MLB’s Executive VP of Baseball Operations, says the call was correct. But of course he would. Can you imagine the storm that would be brewing if he came out and said that Joyce blew the call?

The Cosmic Data

Is it karma? Was Boston sports due for retribution after the Patriots and Tom Brady benefitted from the tuck rule in 2002, allowing them to come from behind and beat the Raiders, when they certainly would have lost if not for the now defunct “rule?” Were the Cardinals due for a call of this magnitude in the World Series after the Don Denkinger, Jorge Orta, Todd Worrell call by Don Denkinger in the 1985 World Series?

Would we even be debating this if Mike Matheny hadn’t channeled his inner Don Mattingly and made two late game questionable managerial decisions by first bringing in Trevor Rosenthal in the middle of an inning, and then not pinch running for the lumbersome Yadier Molina in the ninth inning with a chance to win the game?

Hell, I don’t know. I don’t know if we’re supposed to know.

Last night, the Dodgers’ 2013 season came crashing to and end as Superman’s cape caught fire. Clayton Kershaw could not complete five innings and was tagged with seven earned runs in the loss, while counterpart Michael Wacha was dominant for Saint Louis. It’s easy to be disappointed, but a spot in the NLCS is nothing to shake a stick at. For the most part, considering all of the injuries this team sustained, they did reasonably well. The list of players who missed significant time includes Zack Greinke, Josh Beckett, Chad Billingsley, Matt Kemp, Hanley Ramirez, and Andre Ethier. That’s a few hundred million in salary worth of bandaids right there. Let’s take a look at the highs and lows:

Team MVP: Adrian Gonzalez. A Gon is no longer an elite defensive first baseman. In fact, these days, he’s probably among the worst defenders at the position. But he can still knock in some runs. He led the team with 100 ribbies and slugged 22 home runs to lead the team. Most importantly though, he was in the line up pretty much every day. At the beginning of the year, while pretty much everyone was either wounded or struggled horribly, Gonzalez held the fort down and produced. One of the often overlooked things about him is that you can’t really play matchups with him, as he hits lefties just about as well as he does righties. His power may not be what it once was, but he still figures to be productive for seasons to come. Grade: B+

Team Cy Young: Clayton Kershaw. Gee, that one was tough to call, wasn’t it… If not for pathetic run support, especially early on in the year, Kershaw could have won 25 games. His sub 2.00 era for the year led the majors by quite a margin, and he is unquestionably the best pitcher in baseball. Whatever contract extension he eventually signs this off season could be worth upwards of 200 million dollars. And if you judge him by his peers, he’s worth every penny. Grade: A+

Unsung Hero: Juan Uribe. Uribe was an afterthought as the season started. Still on the roster by virtue of his popularity in the clubhouse (and possibly the 8 million guaranteed he was earning) he had this one chance to save his career. Yeah, and that’s pretty much what he did. Taking over at third base for the ineffective, and eventually released Luis Cruz, Uribe played exceptional defense and contributed solidly at the plate with 12 home runs while hitting .278. Those numbers may appear solid if unremarkable, but considering he was below the Mendoza line in 2012 and barely above it in 2011, it was borderline miraculous. If the decision making process was objective, Uribe would win a gold glove. The award will probably go to a bigger name like Ryan Zimmermann or David Wright, superior hitters but not the defenders they once were, but anyone who watched the Dodgers this year knows who really deserves it. Grade: A-

Rookie of the Year: Hyun Jin Ryu. This one was a bit tougher to call, as Yasiel Puig’s emergence undoubtedly turned the season around for the Blue Crew. But while Puig faltered down the stretch, making more and more boneheaded decisions in the field, and striking out with shocking regularity at the plate, Ryu remained steady and effective. He won 14 games, and if not for an irrelevant tune up start at the end of the season in which he gave up 4 earned runs while just getting some work in, he’d have finished with a sub 3.00 era also. And in the biggest game of the season to that point, he out-dueled the brilliant Adam Wainwright in game 3 of the NLCS with seven dominant shut out innings. Grade: A

Biggest Disappointment: Matt Kemp. When you have the tools to be a perennial MVP candidate, much is expected of you. After a monstrous 2011 campaign, Kemp had a rough go of it in 2012, struggling at the plate and in the field while dealing with a myriad of nagging injuries, and one that required a shoulder operation. Early this year, it clearly wasn’t 100% right, despite Kemp’s repeated arguments that it was. Well, if you say it’s right, then we expect performance as if it’s right. And he didn’t perform that way. And to tie a brutal knot on the season for him, he injured his ankle on a play at the plate due to lack of hustle. That’s criminal. Grade: D

Offense: Again, injuries played a part, but with their line up top to bottom, you would have expected that this team scored more runs. Gonzalez led the team with only 22, which about the total to be expected from him at this point in the season, but you could argue that this team could field five 30 home run hitters at once, with a couple of them threatening to reach 40. But, it’s hard to hit them when you’re not in the line up. Regardless, this team had to scratch runs together too much, rather than getting heaps at a time with more power production. And with Carl Crawford stealing a measly 15 bags at the top of the lineup, this lineup is was not equipped to manufacture runs. They needed to slug them home with doubles and round trippers. And they didn’t. That said, some guys had nice years and performed better than expected, like the aforementioned Uribe, and the underrated AJ Ellis once again exceeded expectations by hitting 10 home runs. Grade: C+

Pitching: Well, Kershaw was once again awesome. Greinke, even though he just signed a massive contract, probably deserves an extension already. Not only did he pitch brilliantly all year after missing most of the first six weeks, he showed that he’s a tough guy who protects his hitters. The guys standing in the batters box for you night in and night out like it when you do that. We’ve already established the nice year that Ryu had. Kenley Jansen showed he is a top closer, late season acquisition Brian Wilson showed he has plenty left in the tank, and JP Howell was quietly excellent all year as well. Paco Rodriguez and Ronald Belisario faltered late after pitching well for the most part, and Josh Beckett was a disappointment but injuries probably exacerbated that. All things considered, 2014 looks bright for this group. Grade: A-

Defense: This wasn’t expected to be a strength for this team so the fact that it wasn’t is not a surprise. AJ Ellis was elite at throwing runners out, though he still allows too many passed balls. Uribe was probably the best defensive third baseman in the majors this year, but everywhere else was between mediocre and terrible. Hanley Ramirez, considered a poor defender, was probably better than poor. Andre Ethier, who filled in for the injured Kemp in center, played hard, if not that well. Nobody else, even the highly regarded Mark Ellis, did anything noteworthy. Grade: C

Coaching: Yes, the part we’ve all been waiting for. Don Mattingly, despite taking the team to the NLCS, proved incapable of making a good decision. Look, sometimes you can make the right decision and things go wrong. That’s fine, and should not be held against the manager. But things like overusing relievers, dodgy substitutions, and an incomprehensible batting order can be. Mattingly did do a decent job with the immature Puig, and finally made the smart move of eliminating Brandon League as closer in favor of the better Jansen, but the bad far outweighs the good. However, Rick Honeycutt continues to show he is one of baseball’s better pitching coaches, and deserves a long term contract extension. Tim Wallach and Davey Lopes both contributed as coaches. Nothing to say, really, on Trey Hillman. As Mattingly’s right hand guy, one of his primary responsibilities is helping the manager avoid dumb decisions. Either he didn’t take that responsibility seriously, or inexplicably agreed with Mattingly. Grade: C (nudged there by the excellent Honeycutt; without him, it’s probably a D-)

Front Office: Ned Colletti has been a popolar target for critics. And you can’t really blame them. Look at the ridiculous Brandon League contract, and a bench that’s loaded with utility infielders. Seriously, who needs five utility infielders!!!??? But, he did get team MVP Gonzalez and Carl Crawford for very little. Same with Hanley. And he got ace 1A Greinke in the off season to round out the staff. Not every decision was good, but he spent the money he was given and this team was good enough to win with better coaching and maybe a little luck. The team may want to take a look at it’s scouting department. They’ve found a few gems (Puig, Rodriguez) in the past couple of years, but the farm system looks pretty barren. Grade: C+

2014 Outlook: Well, most key players will be back. They will still have four starting outfielders for three spots, but given the injuries of the past couple of years, that’s not a bad thing. Mark Ellis, Uribe, and Brian Wilson are free agents, and played key roles. Uribe might be back on a one year deal, and they’ll probably try to resign Wilson, but they will need to figure out second base. Some people are clamoring for Robinson Cano, but do they want to spend the reported 300 million dollars Cano wants? More likely, they try speedster Dee Gordon there, or try to work a deal with the crosstown Halos for Howie Kendrick. A repeat NL West crown is probable, but the team will have to be healthy to compete with a team like the Cardinals, the unquestioned cream of the crop in the National League. 100-62 is my guess.