Snake-bitten Sam

Quick, apart from the position they play(ed), what do Tim Tebow, Jimmy Claussen, Colt McCoy, Mike Kafka, John Skelton, and Rusty Smith have in common with Sam Bradford?

If you said that they were the next 6 quarterbacks drafted following Bradford in the 2010 NFL draft, you would be correct. More on this later.

Any time a quarterback is taken with the first overall pick in the draft, the standard of Face of the Franchise is, either fairly or unfairly, bestowed upon that man. Sam Bradford was no different. From the moment his name was the first one read in 2010, he was going to change the fortunes of one of the most moribund franchises in all of professional sports. Apart from a three year period at the turn of the millennium, the Rams…well, they were awful.

Plagued by brutally inept leadership that consistently assembled rosters permeated by sub-professional level “talent,” failure was unavoidable. Bradford was the turning point, however. His on-field excellence was matched only by his spotless character. And with his Abercrombie model looks, the whole face of the franchise thing could literally be taken…well, literally.

If there were concerns about Bradford, they were about a shoulder injury that ended his junior and final season at Oklahoma, and kept him from participating at the combine. To date since then, it has never been an issue.

Being the first overall pick in any sport’s draft is both a blessing and a curse. Ultimately, you end up being a smashing success or a dismal failure, a “bust” if you will. There isn’t any middle ground. When I make this argument to people, for some reason they always point to Eli Manning as the example of why I’m wrong – the “other” Manning is the perfect example of the middle ground for a first overall pick. I argue back that two Super Bowl rings means smashing success unequivocally. Eli is hardly the most skilled quarterback of the last 20 years – his predecessor as top pick was the more talented and two Super Bowls lighter Carson Palmer, for example – but his status as big game leader is beyond reproach.  

The Rams brought in respected veteran AJ Feeley to both challenge Bradford for the starting gig as a rookie, but more to help the young quarterback become accustomed to life as an NFL player. Bradford played well enough to earn the starting job and it appeared a star was born.  Key word, “appeared.”

Those of us who have been Rams fans for the last few decades (guilty!) have a complex. An old work buddy of mine who was a huge Rams fan from the pre-Kurt Warner days used to truly (I think) believe that God had it in for the Rams. For the purposes of this article, and also for the purpose that it was actually his name and I’m too lazy to come up with a pseudonym for him, we’ll call him Chris. Chris once speculated to me that someone would have to sell their soul to reverse the cosmic law that forever and for always, the Rams would suck. Then, something strange happened. The heaven-ordered moratorium on competent personnel decisions was briefly lifted. They traded for the awesome multi-purpose back Marshall Faulk, signed Trent Green, a quality free agent quarterback from Washington, drafted promising receiver Torrey Holt, and things were looking up. Then, a single cheap shot by Rodney Harrison in preseason game number three changed everything. Shortly thereafter, the news became public: Trent Green’s season was over due to a knee injury.

“We’re f*****.”

That was the email I got from Chris, except that the little stars weren’t little stars. They were, in fact, letters of the alphabet. I don’t think I need to explain which ones.

The rest of that season of course was historic. Who knew that Kurt Warner would come in and play Hall of Fame level football?

Bradford won the offensive Rookie of the Year honors in 2010, and a franchise devoid of any hope for the better part of a decade had some. The Rams even had a chance to back into the playoffs with a final week win in Seattle. Now, these Seahawks weren’t anywhere near the juggernaut that today’s squad is, but still a beast of an opponent at home.

The Seahawks ended up beating the Rams that day, 16-6, but three pivotal plays shaped the game. Two beautifully thrown bombs by Bradford, one down the middle and another down the left sideline, to rookie Danario Alexander, and a late key third down strike to tight end Daniel Fells. The normally sure-handed Alexander let both passes go right through his hands, and Fells allowed the ball to carom from right between the numbers on the front of his jersey harmlessly to the ground. Both plays to Alexander could have gone for 50 or more yards, and the play to Fells would have kept a critical late drive alive. And to be clear, all three of these passes were throws that an NFL receiver should catch 90% or more of the time. 

As frustrating as the loss was, there was a curious lack of foreboding among Rams fans. We had a young stud quarterback, we nearly made the playoffs, and things could only get better. Chris and I had long since lost touch, but I imagined that even he remained cautiously optimistic. Little did any of us know that the Seahawks game was only the beginning of, with a nod to Lemony Snickett, a lengthy series of unfortunate events for Bradford.

We’re not even talking about the injuries yet. Regular season, 2011, Game 1 against the Eagles. On the Rams’ first series, Steven Jackson thundered through the entire Philly defense for a long touchdown run. It was also his last contribution to the game as he pulled quad muscle on the run. Jackson frequently pulled muscles in the early part of seasons, leading one to believe he bit his thumb at the time-honored practice of stretching, but that’s neither here nor there. On the subsequent possession, Bradford threw a long strike to a wide open Lance Kendricks who could have waltzed into the end zone with all the urgency of molasses in January, had he only remembered the minor detail of actually catching the perfectly thrown ball.

Week 2 against the Giants, the teams were close until the game turned on a third down play deep in Giants territory where Bradford threw a lateral pass to a wide open Cadillac Williams. Williams dropped the well-thrown ball, and then inexplicably didn’t make any attempt to recover it, allowing the Giants to return it for a touchdown. Game, set, match.

The play of Bradford and his surrounding cast only deteriorated from there, culminating in a catastrophic high ankle sprain in week 7 against the Cowboys. This injury not only ruined the rest of 2011 for Bradford, it never quite healed right and cost him valuable mobility for all of 2012 – essentially making him a sitting duck for opposing defenses which penetrated the Rams’ putrid offensive line with minimal effort and remarkable ease. It’s worth noting, however, that Bradford managed to lead the Rams to seven wins in spite of terrible pass protection, and the fact that he now was working under his third offensive coordinator in three years, the appallingly incompetent Brian Schottenheimer.

2013 looked to be the first season since his rookie campaign that offered a glimpse of what a healthy Bradford may be capable of, though any real chances of a prosperous year were scuttled by a comically cataclysmic attempt at installing something resembling a spread passing attack, which ultimately spread only despair. After a particularly horrifying display at home against the 49rs, where a shell-shocked and panicky Bradford was desperately and aimlessly heaving passes in the face of a relentless San Francisco pass rush,  coach Jeff Fisher came to his senses and went to an uninventive but not calamitous power run approach behind bruising rookie Zac Stacy. Bradford’s play and that of the team improved, but giving the other teams in the stacked NFC West a four week head start is too much to overcome. Oh, and there was that whole ACL tear thing against Carolina in week 8 too.

The Bradford story for 2014 is a short one. It ended in the preseason with another ACL tear.

What is my point, you may be thinking? Well, with the trade earlier this week of Bradford to the Eagles for fellow quarterback Nick Foles, an era came to an end. It’s weird to call something that lasted just five short years an era, but it was. Bradford’s time with the Rams was a saga of unfulfilled potential and abysmal luck. It also leaves unanswered questions. Now that Bradford has been freed from any curse there might be over the Rams, as well as the lofty expectations that come along with being an obscenely overpaid quarterback before you ever even take a single NFL snap (he’s still obscenely overpaid if accomplishment is used as a barometer for what salary should be, but it’s in a new city), will he finally become the superstar that people thought he would? Or, is it just him? Remember those six guys I mentioned at the beginning? Maybe Bradford only seemed to be as good as he was in college because of who his contemporaries were. I’m among the dwindling crowd that still thinks Tim Tebow deserves to be employed as a quarterback, though probably not a starter, somewhere in the NFL. He has a playoff win to his credit (he threw for three hundred yards that game!!!!) ((though much of it came on the final play…)) (((shut up, voice in my head!!!))) and his career win-loss numbers are far from terrible. But apart from him, nobody in that crowd has accomplished anything of note in the NFL.

What do I think? Well, I think the good Lord has too many other important things to do to waste His time ensuring the continuing futility of an NFL franchise, though I haven’t entirely discounted the possibility that more sinister forces may be at work. That’s the kind of answer you’ll get from a self-aware conspiracy theorist and unapologetic pessimist. But I think Bradford is good. I think his struggles are far more a result of unfortunate circumstances and buzzard luck than they are of not being any good. Is he Andrew Luck good, to reference another number one overall pick at quarterback? No, very few people are Andrew Luck good. Is he Cam Newton good, also a first overall pick? Yeah. They’re not the same player but they’re close in terms of goodness. And you’ll see that in 2015. Or…you won’t if he gets hurt again.

Now, about Nick Foles. How good will he be? I don’t know, to be honest. The Rams offense should improve exponentially by the departure of Schottenheimer alone, but it will all be academic anyway if the Rams indeed are cursed, and Foles suffers some kind of horrible injury in preseason.

I sure hope curses aren’t real.

Time for the Beast to Talk

The ongoing business of Marshawn Lynch and his continued middle finger at the NFL regarding talking to the media has been a source of amusement, bemusement, social media fodder, and scorn as the season has gone along. 

Now that the Seahawks are back in the Superbowl, in spectacular fashion no less, it will be interesting to see how Lynch responds to the ongoing and increasing media demands. 

There shouldn’t really be any suspense though. Odds are, he’ll do what he’s been doing; either giving terse and irrelevant answers or shirking his responsibilities altogether, fines be damned.

Surprisingly, Lynch has been getting quite a bit of admiration, sympathy, and other positive sentiment for his actions (inactions?) with the media. 

One close friend of mine went so far as to tell me that the league needs to recognize his severe social anxiety and grant him an exception to his media responsibilities.

That kind of sent me over the edge. There are people in my life who are close to me that have what would qualify as acute social anxiety, and that’s not Lynch. If anything, what he has is a mild form, but more likely, he just hates the media. 

Well, you know what dude, suck it up. Those of us who work everyday jobs couldn’t dream of behaving the way he does. Lynch is one of the best players in the NFL, irrespective of position, but an employee of a company nonetheless. One of his responsibilities is to talk to the media. If any of us in the real world would stick up our bird fingers to our bosses the way he has done, we’d be summarily fired.

If the NFL has any backbone at all, it’s time for them to stand up and say to Lynch, if you don’t honor your responsibilities to the media like all other players have to, you are not eligible to play in the Superbowl. Done and done. 

And if Lynch really does have social anxiety to the point where speaking with the media causes him to experience severe mental anguish, he certainly has the means to get an independent and accredited therapist to testify as such to the NFL. And then, and only then, should he be given any kind of reprieve. 

We’re talking about a guy who is building a Hall of Fame resume. It certainly would be a shame if this bull, uh, excrement, was a factor in that voting a decade from now. 

 

College Football Playoff Preview

Let’s face it, we all wanted to get rid of the BCS, but is the current version of the College Football Playoff really that much better? Every Tuesday, 12 supposedly un-biased members of a playoff committee flew to Dallas to meet and discuss the playoff rankings which were announced on a weekly special on ESPN. If “weekly special on ESPN” doesn’t make you question the honesty of a committee, I am not sure what will, but then they went out and blatantly showed that is was all for money and ratings at the end of it all. TCU was ranked as the number three team in the playoff standings with one week to go, meanwhile Baylor was left out despite having beaten TCU head-to-head. Then, in the final week, TCU goes out and absolutely destroys Iowa State 55-3 leaving anyone with any sense about them to reasonably conclude they had secured a spot in the Playoff. Not only was that not true, but they fell all the way to sixth, behind the Baylor team that many had been arguing should have been ahead of TCU all along.

So, every ranking before the final rankings were clearly just a made for TV special so ESPN could make a few extra bucks and boost their ratings. If the rankings are so blatantly manipulated for ratings and discussion, why didn’t they manipulate the final rankings for premium viewership? Alabama got the number one seed, allowing them to stay in the South and play in the Sugar Bowl, and Oregon gets to stay on the West Coast and play in the Rose Bowl. That left Florida State and Ohio State as the next two team in the playoff, and the seeding is obvious right? Send Florida State to the Sugar Bowl to play Alabama and Ohio State to the Rose Bowl to create a traditional Pac-12 vs. Big Ten matchup. No, apparently a couple months of lip service BS specials on TV was enough devious manipulation for the committee and the easiest one would be too obvious for them. So Ohio State heads to the Sugar Bowl and undefeated, yet third ranked, Florida State heads West to the Rose Bowl.

Enough about the garbage that was the committee, let’s take a look at the games. The Playoff could feature the top three overall picks in the coming NFL draft, and a third string quarterback who said on Twitter “Why should we have to go to class if we came here to play FOOTBALL, we ain’t come to play SCHOOL, classes are POINTLESS”. Yes Cardale Jones, you got a free ride to a premier university to be a third string quarterback and not go to class, I am sure you will be wildly successful in life after college.

So the third string QB who hates college despite playing college football will face the number one team in the nation, the Alabama Crimson Tide. This is a matchup that is as interesting for the coaching matchup as it is the players on the field. There might not be two better college football coaches in the game today than Urban Meyer and Nick Saban, so it will certainly be fun to watch. Also fun to watch is receiver Amari Cooper, who is likely to be the first receiver taken in the coming NFL draft. In the end, Alabama should be able to win this game rather easily with their defense against a quarterback who has just one start under his belt.

In the Rose Bowl, the last two Heisman Trophy winners take the field in Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota. Winston’s off-field issues will likely cause him to drop some in the NFL draft, but these two could end up being the top two pick come April 30th. Florida State has not lost a game in two years, but they also haven’t faced a team like the Oregon Ducks. The Ducks obviously have a high powered offense, but their defense gets underrated and I see them just pulling out a very close game.

That would set up a National Championship matchup of Alabama and Oregon in Jerry’s World in Dallas. Oregon has not faired well against premier SEC teams in recent years, but this team has the best chance to get it done. While I would be rooting for an Oregon victory, and could see it happening, if I had to place good money on the game, I would have to go with Alabama purely because of Nick Saban. The Tide is playing as well as any team in the nation down the stretch and they have the best big game coach in the country, but it won’t be a blowout, instead a very competitive game.

Why is My Seat Warm? NFL Coaches Who Might Soon be Jobless

As another NFL regular season draws to a close, a hot topic of discussion is always the coaching hot seat. It can be an awkward and unpleasant topic. In many cases it’s not 100% fair to blame the coach for a team’s underperformance. The NFL season is a short one; 16 measly games. A solid baseball team can go through a brutally bad 16 game stretch and have plenty to time to right the ship over its 162 game season. In basketball and hockey, it’s not quite as easy, but over an 82 game schedule, it’s still well within the realm of possibility to recover from a rough 16 game patch.

But football? No, entire seasons can go south in a mere 4 or 5 weeks. The quarterback can get hurt. The schedule makers can be merciless. The referees can be horrifyingly inept, or just plain cheat. Or the oblong ball made of pigskin might take an inopportune bounce. It really takes very little. The final playoff participants are frequently separated from the Just Missed Its by one lousy game…or even a tie-breaker.

And someone has to take the fall. The NFL is a gazillion dollar enterprise, and failure is not tolerated for extended periods of time; not by a fan base that spends ungodly amounts of money on season tickets and memorabilia. Not with television networks throwing around billions. Not in the social media era, where anonymity is an ancient relic from a bygone era, and everything gone wrong can instantly go viral. Every move, every mistake is under a microscope.

You can get rid of an underperforming player or two, and try to sell your fan base that an upgrade here or there was really all you needed. But put too much on the players, the guy who makes the decisions is indirectly pointing the finger at himself, since he’s the guy that went out and got those players. No no, we can’t look too hard at the GM. Well, that leaves the coach.

Again, it’s not always fair. Football can’t be painted in black and white, and there isn’t always a direct cause and effect correlation. Then again, the lowest paid nfl head coach makes 100 times what the average blogger with a day job makes, so my sympathy goes only so far. Well, for right or for wrong, here are The Stain’s top 5 coaches who may be filing for unemployment insurance sooner rather than later. 

5. Andy Reid, KC: Didn’t take us long to get to the surprises, did it? But wait a minute, you might be saying. The Chiefs have been halfway decent the last couple of seasons. And, you’d be right. In fact, they went 11-5 as recently as 2013. But there were rumblings that the record was fluky. They got off to a good start, just kind of held on at the end, and then predictably went nowhere in the playoffs. Apologists will point out that as far as the regular season goes, it doesn’t matter in what order you win the games, just that you do. And they’d be right, to a point. But this year, the team will either finish 8-8 or 9-7, barring a tie, and miss the playoffs regardless. That’s a startling regression from a team that won 11 games just one season ago, and doesn’t appear to have any age-related player regression concerns. The defense is solid, they have an all-galaxy running back in Jamal Charles. Alex Smith almost never turns the ball over. The right blueprint seems to be in place. But it didn’t happen. You look at some of the games they lost, like the one against the Raiders. A team that had just beaten Seattle should be able to win that game, right? And there was the winnable game at home against the Broncos. Charles carried the ball 10 times in that game. For perspective, the Broncos’ CJ Anderson carried it 32 times in the same game. Even if you count his four receptions, 14 times is not enough for your best player to get the ball in a game against a division opponent with Super Bowl aspirations. Some tough questions could be asked of Reid after this season. It remains to be seen whether he can come up with answers. I think he’ll get one more year, but if the brass in KC thinks that this could have been the year for them, it may be a story with an unhappy ending for Reid.

4. Marc Trestman, Chi: The Bears have to go down as one of the season’s biggest disappointments. It started week 1 at home against Buffalo, and just never really got any better. What may hurt Trestman is that he brought with him the reputation of being a sort of quarterback whisperer, someone who could coax extraordinary results from his signal caller. Well, that may or may not be true, but Jay Cutler leading the league in turnovers would jade just about anyone’s 10,000 foot judgment on that. If you look at little deeper, yeah, Cutler hasn’t been very good. But he also hasn’t been as terrible as the numbers would indicate. Quite a few of his interceptions have been of the second half variety while his team has abandoned the run and desperately tried to claw back into a game it was losing by multiple scores. This would be because the defense, by in large, showed an alarming lack of ability to stop anyone. Sure, age, injury and some personnel decisions that were questionable have had a negative impact on this unit. But Defensive Coordinator Mel Tucker has to shoulder his fair share too. For years, Lovie Smith had success with a reasonably uncomplicated Tampa 2 scheme. Whatever Tucker is running currently for Chicago is neither Tampa 2 nor uncomplicated. That said, Tucker came from Jacksonville with a sterling reputation. And Trestman came from the CFL. In a logical vacuum, Tucker would seem the guy who may be responsible for more of this season’s calamity. But Trestman, at least on the surface, can be called the bigger risk when he was brought in to coach. So, logically, he’d be the guy that would make more sense to fire.

3. Jeff Fisher, Stl: Fisher has always been overrated, largely because he had a Super Bowl appearance with an absurdly talented Tennessee Titans team which he lost by half a yard. Apart from that, mediocrity abounds across his resume. When he joined the moribund Rams franchise three years ago, he was anointed some kind of savior, which was completely unfair to both him and the gullible fan base. But that said, he still represented an improvement over previous coaching regimes, so optimism spread like wildfire. After the third, and arguably worst of his three seasons in charge, the luster has worn off. However, upon closer inspection, he’s been perfectly serviceable as a head coach this year. The real issue is that as long as Brian Schottenheimer is in charge off offensive play-calling, the Rams will never be good enough. Schottenheimer is so brutally incompetent at running an offense, the Rams could eliminate his position entirely, have whomever is playing quarterback call every play at the line of scrimmage, and immediately see a drastic improvement. At the very least, there would no longer be a concerted effort made to keep the ball out of the hands of the team’s most explosive weapons. But the poop rolls down hill as they say (And by they I mean me), so Fisher is more likely to face the scrutiny. Couple the teams offensive troubles with questionable coaching selections (Gregg Williams the first time, then Tim Walton), there’s a real chance that GM Les Snead looks elsewhere. If Fisher has a saving grace, he can honestly and accurately say “look, I haven’t had a healthy starting quarterback for two consecutive seasons.” 

2. Jim Harbaugh, SF: Media outlets pretty much have already punched his ticket to Michigan, or Oakland, or…well, anywhere but San Francisco. It would have been hard to predict at the beginning of the season that the Niners would miss the playoffs. After all, the team made it to three consecutive NFC Championship Games, including one Super Bowl, and the core elements of what got them there were intact; rock solid defense, uber-athletic quarterback Colin Kaepernick, and of course, bulldozing running back Frank Gore. Looking back at the 2014 season, it’s not hard to see why it went south. The team essentially anchored Kaepernick to the pocket, taking the most explosive element of his game out of the nightmares of defensive coordinators. They also showed a Schottenheimerian reluctance to give Gore, arguably the team’s best player, the ball. Suspensions and injuries hampered the defense a little, but largely, the unit performed well. The struggles were on offense. Now, was it offensive coordinator Greg Roman who messed with a winning formula? Or was it head coach Harbaugh? I don’t know that the question will be answered. But one thing is for sure. Where there’s smoke, there’s often fire. And if Harbaugh wants out, as has been rumored all year, nobody would benefit by him staying.

1. Mike Smith, Atl: If the Falcons happen to lose on Sunday, they will have gone a combined 10-22 the last two seasons. TEN and TWENTY-TWO!!! And mind you, this is a team that boasts Matt Ryan, Roddy White, and Julio Jones on offense, and shows no aversion whatsoever to getting the ball to its best players. The players, especially Ryan, love Smith. But the players are also not the ones making the decision on whether Smith stays or goes. And football is very much a what have you done for me lately game. If the Falcons happen to win on Sunday, they’ll actually win the NFC South division with a record of 7-9, and possibly save his job. But even that might be prolonging the inevitable. All you have to do is Google him and you’ll see multiple media outlets urging, albeit somewhat apologetically, for Smith’s dismissal. When it’s gotten to that point, it’s a long road back.

 

Honorable Mention. Sean Payton, NO: After nine years of coaching the Saints, you’d be hard to find many detractors of Payton. He’s universally regarded as a great coached, and he’s beloved in New Orleans. It would be hard to imagine him getting fired. But this could end up being a case of the team throwing Payton a bone and letting find a contender to coach next season. (San Francisco?) It’s time for a bit of a rebuild in New Orleans. They have some nice offensive pieces in place, with Drew Brees, Jimmy Graham, Kenny Stills, and a suddenly good Mark Ingram. But they’re lacking in youth and depth. Even with a good framework in place of stars to build around, it can take a couple of years to restructure a roster to perennially compete. It takes patience, and most often multiple successful drafts. Odds are Payton will stay, but would you really be overly surprised if a coach accustomed to success didn’t want to suffer through a rebuild?

 Did we miss anyone on our list? Let us know in the comments. Happy holidays, all.  

The Bastardization of the Prospect

That title used to mean something. The population of players between Rookie Ball and AAA were all collectively known as “minor leaguers.” But if you were a prospect, you were different. There were expectations of you. Greater things were imagined. People knew your name. From the moment you were drafted, your future was determined. The barrier between AAA and big leagues would be broken by you. At least that was the hope. There was always the chance, a significant chance in fact, that you would become a statistic – a tale of what could have been. 

Now, anyone with spikes and a bat is a prospect. Really. The truth is this. Tons of guys get drafted by organizations who know full well that they’re never getting to the bigs. But hey, mop up middle relievers are needed in blowouts at the AA level too, right? Why have some kid with a future risk his precious elbow when you could have some cheap labor handle it. But in the new world of baseball journalism, that guy is a prospect too. 

By very definition, prospect means that there’s a probability, likelihood, or at the very least, chance for future success. Here’s a couple of headlines and intros from this week’s baseball news. 

Kemp to Padres for C Prospect Grandal

Dodgers Acquire Prized Catching Prospect for Kemp

Gordon to Marlins for Three Prospects 

Yasmani Grandal is 26 years old. He’s been in the big leagues since 2012. That’s long enough for him to have raised expectations with solid rookie campaign, albeit in a tiny sample size, get suspended 50 games for PED use, return and blow out a knee, return from that and forget how to hit, as evidenced by his absurd 115 strikeouts in only 445 plate appearances in 2014. But he’s a prospect. Now, Grandal’s supporters will point to his 15 home runs, not a bad power display in Petco Park from a switch hitting catcher, as well as his proficiency in the ridiculously overblown metric of pitch framing. His detractors will point to his ludicrously bad contact rate, inability to even remotely control the running game, and the tricky nature of knee injuries for catchers. The fact that he possesses the ability to hit the occasional long ball will make him useful on a big league roster, but is that enough, irrespective of whether you believe he was enough of a return for Matt Kemp, to be given the label of prospect? At age 26!? 

Chris Hatcher, referred to by multiple media outlets as a pitching prospect acquired in the Dee Gordon trade, is 29 years old with an ERA of nearly 5 over 81 career games. He was originally drafted as a catcher, but couldn’t hit enough. Shifted to the mound, he stuck for the majority of a big league season for the first time in 2014. He’s a sort of success story who is easy to cheer for, and probably deserves a job pitching in a major league bullpen if his 5 to 1 strikeout to walk ratio last season isn’t a fluke. But even the most fervent of optimist would have to admit that age 29, it’s likely he’ll never progress very far past where he is now, a potentially somewhat useful middle reliever. Is that a prospect? Can a 29-year-old even be a prospect? 

I don’t know if it’s the English language I’m grieving for, or if it’s the slow and painful death of insightful baseball writing. I’m appealing to you, Buster Olney, and you, Jonah Keri, and Bill Plaschke, and…and…hell, anyone with a keyboard. If you’re going to write about baseball, or any sport for that matter, can we start calling things what they are again?

Pitch Framing: Just Stop it Already

Ok, enough already. Admittedly, I’m a little old fashioned when it comes to baseball and sabermetrics. I’m coming around a little bit, though. While I still think the multiple formulas out there for WAR (wins above replacement) still seem awfully arbitrary to me, they generally seem to be in the neighborhood of making sense most of the time. Guys like Miguel Cabrera, Mike Trout, Clayton Kershaw, Giancarlo Stanton, and Yadier Molina get justifiably awesome scores. Guys like Ryan Ludwick, Gordon Beckham, and Travis D’Arnaud get suitably poor scores. And perpetually and criminally underrated guys like Hunter Pence and Brett Gardner get a bit of deserved props. And then there’s the curious notion that Corey Kluber (excellent, don’t get me wrong) had a higher WAR than Kershaw. Just sayin’, who would you rather have as your number one guy?

Then there are stats like UZR (don’t worry, we’re getting to pitch framing in a second) which measure a fielder’s defensive value based on how many runs they purportedly save based on defensive prowess. Ok, Billy Hamilton somehow outscored Juan Lagares in this metric. Hamilton’s blazing speed is indisputable, and it no doubt helps him chasing down batted balls. But he takes poor routes, and isn’t fast to react to the ball being hit. Lagares lacks the speed of Hamilton, but reacts practically instantly to batted balls, and takes near perfect routes every time. How do you figure? Chase Headley leads the pack for third basemen, far ahead of the immeasurably superior Nolan Arenado. Somehow, Luis Valbuena and Cody Asche chart, while the outstanding Juan Uribe isn’t even on the list. Soooooooo, yeah. 

Finally, we get to pitch framing. Admittedly, this is a bit of a homer area for me, being a Dodger fan. In brief, before he signed with the Blue Jays, Russ Martin was a popular pick to go to the Dodgers in free agency because of his high pitch framing stat, something new VP Andrew Friedman is supposedly high on. Couple that with the fact that incumbent AJ Ellis is ranked low in that “statistic,” the writing is on the wall, right?

Let’s just put this to bed as simply as possible. This “metric” is as close to absolute crap as you can get. Here’s why. If you have pitchers that throw predominantly strikes, you don’t have to “frame” pitches. 

Now, that’s not to say that there isn’t value in being able to receive a pitch in a manner that doesn’t resemble a seizure. There are plenty of catchers who stab at every ball thrown to them. And they’re all in AA ball or below. 

Two of the leaders in the pitch framing “stat” in 2014 were Martin and the Rays’ Jose Molina. One of the worst was the Dodgers’ AJ Ellis. Martin caught the likes of Gerrit Cole and Francisco Liriano. Both guys have superb stuff but struggle with command from time to time because of youth in Cole’s case, or persistent mechanical issues in Liriano’s case. In Molina’s case, he’s catching guys like Jake Odorizzi, Chris Archer, and Alex Cobb; brilliant young talents who have the ability twirl gems any time they are on the mound…but also have the command issues that come with being hard throwers in early stages of what might become brilliant careers.

Plenty of pitches to frame for both of those catchers, right?

Here are a few names for you. Clayton Kershaw. Zack Greinke. Dan Haren. Hyun Jin Ryu. Every single one of those pitchers, even Ryu in his brief career, are universally recognized as having good command. Exactly how often does the catcher need to “steal” a strike by “framing” a pitch?

AJ Ellis’ 2015 status with the Dodgers was secure the moment that Clayton Kershaw told Andrew Friedman that AJ was his guy. You don’t eff with your all-universe pitcher and his favorite catcher.

But none of that matters. The bottom line is, guys that throw strikes get calls. Let’s put it this way. Catchers who have to catch a staff of pitchers who don’t necessarily know where the ball is going are going to have to “frame” more pitches than catchers with a staff of guys with solid command.

Guys who throw the ball where the catcher is set up are going to get more strike calls than guys who make the catcher reach for the pitch. Ask any umpire from little league to the pros.

Now for part two of why this pitch framing crap is just that…crap. The two most impactful pitches a pitcher can throw are strike three or ball four. Strike three gets you an out, ball four means a base runner, at the risk of stating the obvious. Those two pitches also share something in common. They signify the end of an at bat. If a borderline call goes against the pitcher on the first pitch, he can still recover to make good pitches after that and get the hitter out. Or, if Jose Molina perfectly frames a borderline pitch for a strike on the first offering, there is nothing to say that the hitter can’t line the next pitch into the gap for a double. 

So can we please knock off this bull butter about pitch framing?  Can we please stop helping Scott Boras get richer? Please?

Wouldn’t it be Funny…

Silly me for thinking I was the mad genius. The elephant in the the Washington Redskins’ room has been the appearance that Robert Griffin III will simply never develop into a quarterback that can justify the king’s ransom in draft picks they sent to the St. Louis Rams a couple of years ago to get him. It just seems that nobody wanted to say the obvious. “It probably ain’t working…”

Then along comes ESPN’s John Keim, who would know better than most, with this article.

Immediately, I cackle to myself. Wouldn’t it be great if the Rams traded for him? As a Rams fan, I don’t actually want this to happen. But as someone who adores satire and unintentional comedy, it would be classic, wouldn’t it? I’m a genius! Let me brag to everyone…

Of course, nobody informed me that Grantland’s Bill Barnwell had already published this beauty. It’s a fun read, but probably should have been confined to the top five, rather than top ten, as a few of the teams listed are wholly unreastic.

So spoiler alert, the Rams are Barnwell’s most likely destination for RGIII to end up. It makes sense because Sam Bradford and his obscene price tag won’t be back after nearly two full seasons lost to injury. Shaun Hill is an adequate back up, but nobody’s idea of a starting quarterback for a team with playoff aspirations in 2015. And Austin Davis, the early season darling of Rams fans, proved he has the competitive spirit to be a leader but the physical tools best suited to be the guy with the clipboard.

In addition, it’s unlikely the Rams will be able to draft their next starting quarterback. Despite a general dearth of competence at nearly every level of leadership, there’s enough talent on the roster to keep them from having a record bad enough that nets a top draft pick. Immediately, that removes them from the running for guys like Marcus Mariota and Jameis Winston.

There won’t be a lot in the free agent pool as far as quarterbacks go, so a trade is the most likely scenario, leaving Griffin and probably Jay Cutler as the only feasible targets. Cutler is a turnover machine and is owed a Brinks truck in gold boullion in salary so he’s out. That leaves Griffin. Essentially, that would mean the Rams got something like Greg Robinson, Alec Ogletree, Michael Brockers, and Janoris Jenkins for whatever conditional mid-round pick it would cost them to bring Griffin to St. Louis. (or Los Angeles, for that matter)

As entertaining as the notion is, here’s why it would end badly. First, all indicators so far in Griffin’s admittedly brief career are that he would need to be in an offense tailored to his skillset. He’s a gifted athlete with a cannon for an arm, but it’s pretty clear at this point he will never be the Michael Vick/Peyton Manning hybrid some envisioned him to be. Still, in the right system, he can thrive. Well, Brian Schottenheimer is one of the most brutally awful offensive coordinators in this history of offensive coordinator being an actual gig. Without any shadow of a doubt, you could reassign Schottenheimer to a position he’s qualified for, say…cotton candy vendor, and have whomever is in at quarterback make every play call at the line, and the offense would improve exponentially.

For perspective, there was a three game span in 2013 where the Rams actually started to get the ball to their most dynamic playmaker by far, Tavon Austin, and resembled a good NFL offense, even with Kellen Clemens at quarterback. Then, it appeared, Schottenheimer panicked because something his offense was doing worked, and immediately abandoned all future plans to get Austin the ball. It is now 13 weeks into the 2014 season, and Austin remains on the distant periphery of the Rams’ offensive game plan.

Secondly, for all of their flaws, the Rams are stocked with clubhouse leadership. Veterans like James Laurinaitas, Robert Quinn, Chris Long and others don’t tolerate any “me first” nonsense, and Griffin with his perpetual soap opera would in all likelihood be ostracized in short order.

But still…it would be hilarious, wouldn’t it?

IBWAA Awards Ballot

Both the BBWAA and the IBWAA have announced all their awards this past week. I am a voter for the IBWAA, and it was certainly interesting to see how my ballot varied from the final vote, although I don’t have any major gripes with any of the awards, outside of maybe Manger of the Year. Fellow IBWAA member and ESPN SweetSpot Blogger Dave Scheonfield did an excellent job breaking down the votes, so I will more speak to the winners and my ballot.

The top reliever matched my votes as I too had Greg Holland and Craig Kimbrel atop my ballot. In the AL, I chose Dellin Betances and Zach Britton to round out my ballot. Betances was a dominant late inning reliever for the Yankees and looking past the completely overrated save statistic, he was as good as there was, but Holland was simply the best. In the NL, I also gave votes to Mark Melancon and Tyler Clippard. Melancon was the best reliever to me on a very good bullpen, and Clippard seemed to be the lone reliever that remained consistent throughout the year for the Washington Nationals.

For Manager of the year, Buck Showalter won in the AL, who was also my top choice. Showalter was able to help lead the Orioles to the AL East title despite major injuries/ suspensions to his top two players, Manny Machado and Chris Davis. I also selected Mike Scioscia despite the fact I largely don’t agree with his managing style, you can’t ignore his success over his tenure with the Angels and his team’s improbable division title. Lloyd Mclendon got my third vote as the work he did to keep the Mariners competitive all season was impressive.

In the NL, Matt Williams won, but he didn’t even crack my ballot. Outside of the Dodgers, the Nationals had the most talent of any team in the NL. Williams made the headlines with his dealings with Bryce Harper far too often. My top choice was Bruce Bochy, and yes this was before the postseason (our ballots were turned in September 28th). Bochy somehow keeps the Giants competitive regardless of talent and injury woes. Also making my ballot were Clint Hurdle and Mike Matheny.

The Rookie of the Year winners were quite simple. Jose Abreu and Jacob DeGrom were clearly the best in their respective leagues; the trouble was filling out the other two spots. In the AL, there were too many options to choose from, while the NL there weren’t enough. Masahiro Tanaka was a popular recipient of votes, but his injury shortened season just didn’t cut it for me. Coming in second for me in the AL was Yordano Ventura, who was purely dominant at times, which he continued to show into the postseason. My third vote in the AL was Danny Santana who flew under the radar of casual baseball fans, as he plays for the woeful Minnesota Twins, but he hit .319 in 101 games while stealing 20 bags and playing solid defense at both shortstop and centerfield.

In the NL, Billy Hamilton came in third on my ballot but, while his numbers leap off the page and he hit better than many expected, his season as a whole was a bit disappointing, but still good enough to crack my ballot. I was happy to see fellow IBWAA voters recognized the person I had second on my ballot, even if he finished third in the IBWAA vote. While playing for the awful Arizona Diamondbacks, Ender Inciarte has an excellent year.

Was there any question as to who would win the NL Cy Young? Of course Clayton Kershaw ran away with the vote, being selected as a unanimous winner. The next two on my ballot were obvious as well, Adam Wainwright and Johnny Cueto, but that is where I think I differed from most. Fourth on my ballot was Jake Arrieta, who seemed to take a no-hitter into the fifth of every outing this season, and wound up with a 2.53 ERA while striking out more than 9.5 per nine innings of work. My fifth and final spot in the NL was a Washington Nationals pitcher, but not the one that jumps out to most people. To me, and according to Baseball Reference’s WAR, the best pitcher for the Nationals this season was Tanner Roark and his 2.85 ERA and walking less than two per nine innings.

In the AL, Felix Hernandez won the vote, but my top pitcher was the same as the BBWAA, Corey Kluber. I actually selected Chris Sale ahead of Hernandez, but all three had excellent seasons. My final two spots on the ballot went to current free agents, Jon Lester and Max Scherzer.

In the MVP voting, Mike Trout was a pretty simple choice. We submitted ten names for the MVP votes, so let me run those off in order; Trout, Victor Martinez, Miguel Cabrera, Josh Donaldson, Alex Gordon, Nelson Cruz, Jose Altuve, Robinson Cano, Jose Bautista, and Michael Brantley. The one that jumped out to me when crunching the numbers and selecting my top MVP votes was Altuve. He led all of baseball in hits with 225; the only other player to reach the 200 mark was Brantley who hit it right on the nose. Altuve broke the Houston Astros team mark for hits in a season, eclipsing a player who should make the Hall of Fame this year, Craig Biggio. Altuve also led all of baseball in batting average and the AL in steals.

For the NL, Kershaw won the vote, but he didn’t even make my ballot. I have always been pro-pitchers on the MVP ballot until I had to fill one out myself. This is surely a topic that will be discussed on this coming weekend’s podcast here on The Stain, but I just couldn’t put Kershaw on my ballot. He was clearly the best player in baseball, but having to go 10 deep on the ballot made me realize that Kershaw would be the only pitcher that cracked the ballot in either league. This is simply because it is nearly impossible to compare a pitcher to a hitter, and it also wouldn’t be right to give the top spot to a pitcher but not have a pitcher land anywhere else on my ballot. It was then that I decided that my MVP ballot would be for position players only.

My votes went as follows; Andrew McCutchen, Jonathan Lucroy, Anthony Rendon, Giancarlo Stanton, Buster Posey, Yasiel Puig, Josh Harrison, Jason Heyward, Hunter Pence, and Matt Holiday. The NL voting was tough once I removed pitchers from the conversation. Stanton probably would have come out on top for me had it not been for his incredibly unfortunate and ugly injury to end his season early. Yadier Molina didn’t even make my ballot, despite me constantly trying to find a spot for him, but his injury plagued season just didn’t allow him to play enough to make my ballot. In the end it really felt like a war of attrition, but McCutchen won out for me.

MLB Free Agency Predictions

The Guy: Max Scherzer

Overview: Arguably the best player available via free agency this year, the 30 year old bet on himself last year and that appears to have paid off. He turned down a 6-year contract worth $144 million following his Cy Young 2013 campaign, but he should earn more than that on the open market this off-season. He is a Boras client, so this one might take a very long time to work itself out.

Potential Suitors: New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox, Chicago Cubs, Texas Rangers

Shaun’s Thoughts: New York Yankees. The Yankees are in desperate need of a lot of talent, and no more position is of greater need than starting pitcher. Scherzer would immediately step in as the ace of the staff now that CC Sabathia has taken a big step back and it appears Michael Pineda can’t be productive unless he has some extra help from foreign substances not so hidden on his neck. There is no signing I am more confident in than Scherzer to the Yankees.

Dark Horse: Arizona Diamondbacks. The Diamondbacks have completely overhauled their front office, and while they have guys coming back from injury, they need to make moves to keep up with the bottomless pockets of the Los Angeles Dodgers and defending World Series champs San Francisco Giants. Signing Scherzer would give them an ace to match up against Clayton Kershaw and Madison Bumgarner.

Torsten’s Thoughts: I agree with Shaun, the Yankees are the only team that makes sense for what Scherzer is likely to cost. He’s the only true ace level pitcher available, and while I think the Yankees need to do quite a bit of roster modification to get back to consistent success, scooping up the best available players doesn’t hurt.

Dark Horse: Giants. I can’t see him going back to the D’Backs, who shipped him off for cheap when they were convinced his arm wouldn’t hold up under his high impact delivery. I can, however, see the Giants locking down a second ace to partner with Bumgarner. They quietly had a payroll around $160 million last season, so you know they don’t mind spending. A core group of Pence, Panda, Posey, Bumgarner and Scherzer sounds like a nice way to be competitive for the next half decade or so.

The Guy: James Shields

Overview:  The third member of the “Big 3” of pitchers in free agency this season will face questions over his lack of production in the post season. There may be some concern over how long his body will hold up given the incredible number of innings he has pitched over the past few seasons, but there is little question he is one of the three best arms available this off-season.

Potential Suitors: Chicago Cubs, Boston Red Sox, Texas Rangers

Shaun’s Thoughts: Boston Red Sox. The Red Sox must sign one of the top three starters in free agency this year, and I belief they will end up having to settle for number three. Their first run will likely be to bring back Jon Lester, but in the end it will the former Tampa Bay Rays starter, James (I still call him Jaime) Sheilds.

Dark Horse: Kansas City Royals. The Royals may not have a ton of money, but their run to the World Series  could allow them to spend some extra cash this off-season, and bringing back Shields would be a great help to them. They have some very good young arms, but their potential future ace, Kyle Zimmer, can’t stay healthy, and Sean Manaea isn’t ready for the big leagues, so there isn’t a real impact arm like Yordano Ventura that the Royals can count on coming up in 2015.

Torsten’s Thoughts: Kansas City. Generally, I never question Shaun when he says a guy is going to the Red Sox. I think their front office is pretty astute, however, and will be unwilling to invest the money Shields would command in an arm with that many miles on it. Shields’ poor post-season performance may have knocked just enough off of his price tag, though, for him to stay in Kansas City. The immediate future is bright there.

Dark Horse: Dodgers. I don’t think the market is going to be super robust for Shields. He’ll get some offers, but if he stays on the market for a bit, look for the Dodgers to throw an offer out, and if he’s willing to sacrifice 10-15 million on the back end for a perennial post-season shot, he may end up in a different shade of blue.

The Guy: Yasmani Tomas

Overview:  Tomas is just the latest in the influx of Cuban talent defecting to America, and he hopes to break records when it comes to the size of his contract. He has worked out with some teams at third base, but in reality he is a corner outfielder. He is incredibly talented, and is just 24, giving him as much upside as any player on the open market this year.

Potential Suitors: Philadelphia Phillies, Texas Rangers, San Francisco Giants, Seattle Mariners

Shaun’s Thoughts: Philadelphia Phillies. The only thing that may prevent the Phillies from signing him is the fact he is not on the downside of his career. This Phillies have made a habit of signing older players to long, over-priced contracts lately, but with the shakeup in the front office, maybe they will finally get a little younger. Tomas would be a great fit given Darin Ruf and Domonic Brown look like they aren’t true long term fits in that outfield. Tomas would be a great addition.

Dark Horse: Los Angeles Dodgers. Los Angeles may as well be re-named Little Havana given the number of Cubans the Dodgers have signed, so why not add another. Juan Uribe will regress back to replacement level sooner than later, and Hanley is likely to sign elsewhere. If the Dodgers think Tomas can play third and truly believe Corey Seager is the future at short (I think he ends up at third) then Tomas could certainly end up in Los Angeles.

Torsten’s Thoughts: Mariners. There are a few teams who are pushing hard for the Cuban slugger, including the Phillies so Shaun may be right on there. Personally I find Seattle to be a more attractive city, and a team with the pitching to compete immediately. Tomas could help finally fill the Mariners’ perpetual power void.

Dark Horse: Cardinals. He makes sense on a lot of levels here. The Cards are known to take the prudent approach so a 9 figure salary commitment might eliminate them, but still. I was also tempted to say the Red Sox here, but that would be if they trade Yoenes Cespedes, and as of this moment, that hasn’t happened.

The Guy: Victor Martinez

Overview: Martinez might have been the best pure hitter in all of baseball in 2014 despite being 35 years old. He set career highs in home runs, batting average, and OPS, and was an even bigger threat than the multi-time MVP Miguel Cabrera. Tigers fans were wondering who would step in following the departure of Prince Fielder last season, they may be asking who will step in with the departure of Victor Martinez this year.

Potential Suitors: Chicago White Sox, Detroit Tigers, Texas Rangers, New York Mets

Shaun’s Thoughts: Chicago White Sox. Not only would signing Victor away from a division rival be a huge perk for the White Sox, getting a power bat in the DH slot that could out-produce Paul Konerko and Adam Dunn with just a single roster spot is a necessity. Victor maybe one of the oldest impact players on the market, but that has never stopped the White Sox before.

Dark Horse: Pittsburgh Pirates. The Pirates need help at first base, and while Victor is primarily a DH, he can still play the position well enough. Adding a bat like Victor along with a few ancillary pieces could make the Pirates real contenders in the NL Central again.

Torsten’s Thoughts: Tigers. I personally think he was their most important offensive player in 2014, and that includes Miguel Cabrera. They will probably lose their best starting pitcher, but to lose their best hitter too? That would be a criminal mistake for a team who is a couple (or five) bullpen upgrades away from again being a World Series favorite.

Dark Horse: Royals. Yep. His age will drop his price tag a little and they will probably want a little more out of the DH spot than Billy Butler has given them. V Mart can also play a little first, and catch in a real pinch, so you don’t automatically lose him in National League parks. It’s unlikely this happens, but it’s on the radar. 

The Guy: Nelson Cruz

Overview: Cruz has long been a formidable power bat, but he put up numbers greater than he ever had before in 2014. He launched an impressive 40 home runs this season on just 166 hits, so roughly one of every four hits left the ballpark. Playing both DH and outfield allowed him to stay fresh and healthy enough to play in 159 games, and should be in for a big paycheck this offserason.

Potential Suitors: Baltimore Orioles, Chicago White Sox, Seattle Mariners

Shaun’s Thoughts: Baltimore Orioles. The Orioles made some moves showing they are in win now mode last season, but losing Cruz would be a massive obstacle to overcome. So their number one priority this off-season needs to be re-signing him. The fact they extended him the qualifying offer also gives them a leg up in negotiations, but if they intend on getting him signed, they need to be willing to give him some years on the deal.

Dark Horse: St. Louis Cardinals. The Cards could really use a power bat that can play a corner spot in the outfield, and while Cruz is best fit to get days off from the field and see time as DH, if he goes to an NL team, a team like the Cardinals would be a great fit.

Torsten’s Thoughts: Orioles. Pretty much everything Shaun said. There are a lot of things that go into where a guy ends up. Cruz had a spectacularly successful “fresh start” in the relative anonymity of playing in Baltimore. He does carry the baggage of being a part of the Biogenesis scandal, and the reputation of being susceptible to nagging injuries, so don’t expect the market to be what it normally would for a player of his offensive acumen. On that note, how the @#$% does a guy who led Major League Baseball in home runs miss out on a Silver Slugger award?

Dark Horse: Phillies. Shaun already touched on their front office philosophies of recent times. Cruz is in his mid-30s, ill-equipped physically to play the outfield full-time, but hey, he just led MLB in home runs. Would you really be that surprised if the Phillies suddenly offered him a six year deal for $115 million? Be honest.

The Guy: John Lester, SP

Overview: The premier starting pitcher on the market, Lester is a bona fide ace with a track record of success on the game’s biggest stage. He was traded by the Red Sox before the deadline last season for Oakland slugger Yoenes Cespedes. He pitched well down the stretch, but Oakland still limped across the finish line before ultimately losing to Kansas City in the Wild Card play-in game.

Potential Suitors: Red Sox, Cubs, Dodgers, Yankees,

Torsten’s Thoughts: Red Sox. I do like conspiracy theories, but this isn’t one of those. I think Lester has always wanted to be in Boston for the duration of his career. It just makes sense to me that he would want to go back to the team he built his career with, and won championships with. From a team perspective, the Sox have the money bring him back, and with as popular as Lester is with the fans, it would be a public relations failure if they didn’t at least give it a very public effort. If the team does ultimately balk at Lester’s asking price, the next logical stop could be Chicago and Theo Epstein.

Dark Horse: Angels. Hey, it wouldn’t be the first time the Halos have come out of nowhere to snap up the biggest free agent on the market. And if there’s something that’s holding the team back from being as good as it could, it’s a rotation that isn’t as deep as some other contending teams.

Shaun’s Thoughts: Chicago Cubs. I said it right after Lester was traded by the Red Sox, he is headed to Chicago to reunite with Theo Epstein. The Cubs need at least one front end starter along with a mid-rotation arm. Their top priority has to be Lester, and I doubt they get out-bid on him.

Dark Horse: Texas Rangers. The Rangers are my dark horse to be big players this off-season. They need a lot of help at several positions, and a second elite arm to pair with Yu Darvish would be a great move for them.

The Guy: Pablo Sandoval, 3B

Overview: The big fella seems to save his best performances for the biggest stages. His weight is a perpetual concern, rightfully so, and may be a deterrent for teams looking to throw an obscene amount of money at one of the top available hitters on the market. Switch hitters with pop don’t grow on trees though, and for a fat dude he defends third base competently. Another thing working against him is the surprising amount of talented young third basemen out there right now. Donaldson, Arenado, Rendon and Carpenter’s teams won’t be looking to upgrade. Dependable vets Adrian Beltre, David Wright, and Juan Uribe are still holding down their respective forts. Chase Headley is out there too for what’s likely to be a considerably smaller commitment than Panda. And depending on who you ask, Hanley Ramirez may move to the hot corner too this off-season.

Potential Suitors: Giants and Red Sox

Torsten’s Thoughts: Giants. I can’t see any way that Panda leaves the bay. He’s immensely popular in San Francisco and has won multiple championships. I would be shocked if he went anywhere else. That said, the thought of Panda flicking doubles off the Green Monster from the left side of the plate all year is probably giving the Red Sox’ management team wet dreams. Expect them to make a serious offer for the big guy to join Xander Bogaerts on the left side of their infield.

Dark Horse: Padres. Look at that pitching staff. This team is ready to contend. They just need to figure out a way to score some runs. Goodness knows they have some payroll flexibility and the laid back San Diego lifestyle could hold some appeal to the Panda.

Shaun’s Thoughts: Boston Red Sox. Will Middlebrooks is simply not cutting it at third, and Xander Bogaerts looks like he will stick at short, so the Red Sox need help at third. One potential filler is Garin Cecchini, but there are still plenty of questions as to whether or not he can stick at the position. A strong bat in the middle of the order is the second biggest need for the Red Sox, behind top end starter, and the Panda would be a great fit. The only snag I could see preventing this from happening is the Red Sox reluctance to give out long term contracts, especially to a player who has weight issues in the past.

Dark Horse: Seattle Mariners. The positional need isn’t there, but the need for a right handed power bat certainly is. The Mariners have not been shy about giving big contracts after singing Robinson Cano last season, this could be the type of move needed to compete in what should be a very stron AL West next season.

The Guy: Russell Martin, C

Overview: If there was ever a great year to be a free agent catcher, this is it. Especially if you’re a guy who just revived his career with his best season over half a decade. Martin will likely command at least 4 years and 60 million on the open market, drastically reducing his suitors. The question is, who is he? Is the guy who fancied himself a power hitter and tried to hit every pitch he saw into the stratosphere? Or is he the guy who shortened his swing and got on base at a career-high clip of over 40% and drastically reduced his strike out rate last season? Either way, he’s a competent defender and catcher is shallow this year, so his agent shouldn’t stray too far from his telephone.

Potential Suitors: Pirates, Cubs, Yankees, Dodgers, Rangers

Torsten’s Thoughts: Pirates. The interwebs are blowing up with Martin to the Cubbies rumors, and they will pursue him aggressively. I think the Pirates, however, will essentially write him a blank check. Oh, you want 70 million instead of 60? 5 years instead of four? The bottom line is this, the Pirates are a team on the rise with young pitching studs like Gerrit Cole and Jameson Taillon. They’ll want a veteran catcher to shepherd those guys to stardom. The Cubbies, while on the rise too, gave Edwin Jackson and his 6.33 ERA 27 starts last season.  Dodgers new VP of Everything, Andrew Friedman will want to make a splash too, but will probably make do with the adequate AJ Ellis and wait for guys like Matt Wieters and Sal Perez to become to expensive for their current small market homes.

Dark Horse: Braves. If I had Evan Gattis and wanted to preserve his mammoth power for as long as possible, I’d be looking for ways to move him out from behind the plate. Just sayin. The appeal of catching guys like Julio Teheran and Craig Kimbrel can’t be discounted either.

Shaun’s Thoughts: Los Angeles Dodgers. Despite Torsten’s man crush on A.J. Ellis, catcher is a massive need for the Dodgers. It would also be a great full-circle story for Martin to finish up his career with the team that he broke through with. Torsten mentions the appeal of catching Teheran and Kimbrel in Atlanta, but last I checked the Dodgers have a decent pitcher or two.

Dark Horse: Tampa Bay Rays. The Rays have been purely awful in the draft of the past handful of years, so what is the big deal in giving up a first round pick they would likely screw up anyway? They don’t have the money to land Martin, but he would be a great fit there, and he has had some success himself in the AL East.

The Guy: Hanley Ramirez, SS (3B?) (LF??) (DH?????)

Overview: When he’s healthy and motivated, Hanley Ramirez is the best offensive player in baseball. He’s nearly impossible to fool, his ungodly bat speed means you can’t throw it past him, power to all fields, and runs well enough to stretch singles into doubles and steal 20+ bases. Problem is, he’s rarely healthy and motivated at the same time, and he might be the worst defensive shortstop in baseball. But oh heavens. That bat…

Potential Suitors: Dodgers, Yankees

Torsten’s Thoughts: Yankees. Sure, they gave him a qualifying offer but the Dodgers are looking to reduce their payroll and the Yankees…well, they’re the Yankees and they have a spot for him. Ok, here’s the deal. In 2013, Ramirez found new life with the Dodgers. The brain trust of Don Mattingly and Ned Colletti led him to believe he had a long-term future with the Dodgers. They’d get an extension done with him, with the understanding that when his range further deteriorated, he’d move to third full time. And Hanley was ok with that, provided they didn’t bounce him back and forth. Not only that, he defended shortstop far more adequately than anticipated. Now, the problem with the braintrust of Mattingly and Colletti is, they’re circular firing squad. You’d be hard-pressed to find a more inept manager than Mattingly in any sport anywhere, and Colletti is little more than a puppet. So when things didn’t get done, Ramirez became disenchanted. Think he wants to stay? I doubt it.

Dark Horse: Mets. If Hanley is willing to accept a move to first base, they can shift Lucas Duda to right field full-time and suddenly, that’s a decent offense. And it’s New York, so there’s money there, and plus, I hear they have big apples.

Shaun’s Thoughts: New York Yankees. The Yankees need someone to step in for the retired Derek Jeter, and Hanley is a big enough name to fit the bill. If the Yankees are able to find someone else to play short, they could also move Hanley to third and block the headache that is A-Rod. The Yankees have never been shy about giving out big contracts, and while you may here more about a cap on their payroll again, don’t believe a word they say.

Dark Horse: San Francisco Giants. They are likely to lose a third baseman with Sandoval on the market, and Hanley has already come out and said he would be willing to change positions if he needs to. The Giants would like to bring the Panda back, but with his weight concerns, they might go with a more sure thing in Hanley instead.

The Guy: David Robertson

Overview: Quietly, Robertson has been one of the American League’s best relief pitchers for the last six or seven years. And when he was tasked with the duty to take over for the greatest closer that ever lived, he didn’t wilt under the pressure. In fact, he thrived. So let’s summarize. His numbers are consistently good so his success is not a fluke. Successfully inherited closer role from Mariano Rivera and didn’t crack under the pressure. Throws 100 with an elite strike out rate. What’s not to like?

Potential Suitors: Yankees, Dodgers, Tigers, Nationals

Torsten’s Thoughts: Yankees. They made him a qualifying offer. 15.3 million is obscene for a reliever, but the Yanks are prepared to pay him that. The Dodgers and Tigers, two World Series contending teams undone by catastrophically bad bullpens, would probably slaughter children to get him in their pens too, but once you’ve experienced success in New York, there’s little like it. It’s likely Robertson has dreams about Yankees fans revering him fifteen years from now the way they do Mariano.

Dark Horse: Orioles. Yeah, they already have a great pen. But Zach Britton wasn’t confidence-inspiring in the post-season, and they are built to be long-term postseason participants. Just think, they closed out their season without Chris Davis and Manny Machado, and barely had Matt Wieters for any of it. Yeah, they’re here to stay while the Yankees face an uphill climb to get back.

Shaun’s Thoughts: Detroit Tigers. The Tigers are so desperate to get a quality bullpen, they just may jump on the Robertson despite the qualifying offer attached to him. Now, maybe they have learned from their recent past that simply signing or trading for the biggest names won’t do the trick when it comes to building a strong bullpen, but like I said, they are desperate.

Dark Horse: Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. The Angels were bounced from the playoffs by a team that dominated with elite late inning arms, and they have struggled in the pen for a while. Robertson could either fit in at closer or as a set-up guy.

Torsten’s Steal of Free Agency: Mike Morse signs a one-year 8 million dollar deal in St. Louis. If that team is missing anything, it’s power. I feel dirty for even writing this, but it has to be said. The devastating death of Oscar Taveras left a hole in MLB’s hearts, but it also left a hole in the Cardinals’ line-up. It sucks to put it in these terms, but the kid was a stud, and his projected production from right field will have to be replaced somehow.

Shaun’s Steal of Free Agency: Justin Masterson signs a three year deal with the Pittsburgh Pirates. A three year deal would leave Masterson still 32-years old when he hits the market again, and the Pirates feel very good about their ability to resurrect pitching careers, just look at Francisco Liriano.

Fantasy Smear Campaign: Week 2

What a soap opera this has become. Roger Goodell might lose is job, or he might not. Someone at the NFL did possess and see a copy of “the video.” And Ray Rice is a violent felon who should be in prison. And these, abhorrent, heartbreaking, and surreal as they may be, are the facts. So help me, that’s all I’m going to say on that because my opinion doesn’t matter. Your opinion doesn’t matter. Nor does Keith Olbermann’s or any of the talking heads on AM radio, or ESPN, or anyone in the media. What’s happened has happened, shocking us in the process, and what will happen will happen, probably not shocking anyone.

Moving on to this week in fantasy, if you got these guys, you’re starting them.

QB: Carson Palmer – Obviously not over, say, Drew Brees. But if you snagged him because your first guy is RG3, or maybe even Nick Foles, the match up is right for a repeat of his 300 yard, 2 TD game this past Monday night.

RB: CJ Spiller – They can’t keep criminally misusing him in Buffalo, can they? The Miami defense looked pretty stout against the Patriots in Week 1, but if the Bills get Spiller the ball in space, he can’t be stopped.

RB: Terrance West – Ben Tate is, surprise surpise, out for a few weeks. West is practically a lock for a score against a Ravens defense that isn’t stout. He’s a solid flex play at least. 

WR: Torrey Smith – Eventually, you’d figure Flacco would get the ball in the hands of his most dynamic receiver, one way or the other. I’m feeling over a hundred yards with a long score against Pittsburgh on Thursday. Take it to the bank. Well, maybe not the bank…maybe one of those shady check cashing places that doesn’t ask for ID.

WR: Victor Cruz – Yes, Eli Manning is terrible. But the Arizona defense has taken yet another hit with the loss of John Abraham. Even Arizona’s talented secondary won’t be able to stay on the Giant receivers for as long as it will take the depleted pass rush to put any pressure on Eli. 

TE: Dude, I don’t know. I already pimped Zach Ertz last week. If you have one of the top guys, you’re going to play them anyway. Atlanta looks committed to including Levine Toilolo in the offensive plans, he may be worth a look if you’re the poor sap who just lost Tyler Eifert for a couple of months. 

D: Rams – Don’t get me wrong, Tampa will probably win this one going away, but it won’t be 38-3 or anything like that. It will probably be something like 23 – 9, with one touchdown coming on defense. But the Rams will probably sack McCown a few times and maybe recover a fumble. They’re worth a look if you are seeking double digit point potential and are taking the streaming approach.

If you got these guys, you’re better off sitting them.

QB: Russell Wilson – Don’t misunderstand, Wilson is great. I just don’t see a big game in the cards for him against a defense that won’t be able to stop Beastmode, and his understudy Robert Turbin. Why throw?

RB: Zac Stacy – I’m still a believer in the kid, but until the Rams prove they can throw with Shaun Hill or Austin Davis, they’ll be facing 8 man fronts. That’s something a crappy offensive line is gonna have trouble with. 

RB: Joique Bell – Love this kid too, but Carolina is tough against the run, and only one target for him in the passing game in week 1. Keep him around, just not in the line up this week.

WR: Brian Quick – 7 catches for 99 yards in week one had quite a few people, yours truly included, scrambling for him on the waiver wire. He’ll need to prove it wasn’t a fluke though, before he finds himself in my line up. 

WR: Dwayne Bowe – Yeah, KC is going to have to throw a lot. But it’s gonna be a ton of dump offs to Jamal Charles, and maybe Travis Kelce. DAMMIT, I could have used him for my TE!

TE: Jared Cook – Don’t get fancy. He hasn’t had a good game since week one last season. He’ll have one this season… just nobody knows when, and it’s not worth having him in your lineup waiting for it to happen.

That about does it for Week 2’s fantasy smear campaign. Good luck all.