Swinging for the Fences

If you play Daily Fantasy NFL and consume any of the industrial sludge passed off as “expert analysis,” you’ve probably noticed something: they’ve been abysmal this year. Picking chalk that busts, overhyping overpriced guys, and generally torching your bankroll with the confidence of a toddler playing with matches.

Meanwhile, credit where credit’s due — my Stain co-conspirator Shaun has been handing out sharper calls than most of the blue-check DFS cartel. The receipts are there. Compare his takes to the big names, and you’d swear one group had access to actual game film while the other was drafting based on vibes and horoscopes.

Me? Guilty as charged — I haven’t been giving DFS readers much meat so far. Time to fix that.

How I Roll

My usual DFS weekend looks like this:

• One 50/50 for the main slate.
• One cash entry for each of the early and late windows.
• A Captain Showdown dart throw.
• And one absolute “swing for the fences” lineup — the scratcher ticket you buy knowing full well it’s going to flame out, but dreaming it might hit the jackpot.

The swing lineup is what we’re focuing on this week. It isn’t about safety. It’s about finding the high-scoring chaos game, stacking it properly, and praying to the variance gods. Sometimes you belly-flop into a 9-6 defensive slog. Sometimes you swim in gold. And every now and again, the stars align where you’re more likely to be Scrooge McDuck than you are Mortimer and Randolph in Coming to America. There’s one for the kids, right?

The Chaos Game: Bears vs. Raiders

This week, that chaos game is Bears vs. Raiders.

• Two atrocious defenses.
• Affordable playmakers across the board.
• The kind of matchup that could plausibly finish 38-35 with both fanbases still demanding their coaches be fired.

Neither of these teams is sniffing the playoffs, but DFS doesn’t care about banners. It cares about box scores. Somebody has to score those touchdowns.

Quarterbacks

• Caleb Williams ($5800 DK): Scattershot accuracy? Sure. But with time to throw against a limp Vegas pass rush, his rushing floor plus upside makes him a strong play.
• Geno Smith ($5400 DK): Loves the deep ball, and the Bears’ secondary is basically a MASH unit. He’s a coin flip with Caleb, but I lean Williams for the legs.

Pass Catchers

• Jakobi Meyers ($5400 DK): Perpetually underrated. Free square.
• Rome Odunze ($6300 DK): Target magnet and worth the spend.
• DJ Moore ($5600 DK): Affordable, volatile, and capable of a slate-breaking day.
• Brock Bowers ($5800 DK): Great ceiling, but I’m squeamish about the knee.

Flier zone: Cole Kmet or Colston Loveland if you want to galaxy-brain tight end exposure, but it’s dicey.

Running Backs

• Ashton Jeanty ($6200 DK): Finally priced like a rookie instead of a clone of peak Bijan. Dynamic pass-catcher, worth the tag.
• D’Andre Swift ($5400 DK): Hip issue clouds things, but if active, he’s a viable PPR play.

If you’ve got the extra $800, I’m siding with Jeanty.

The Bonus

Because you’re not hemorrhaging salary here, you can jam a couple premium studs into the same build:

• Derrick Henry: Angry bounce-back game incoming after two costly fumbles.
• Puka Nacua: WR1 upside every week if his hammies stay intact. Against Indy’s pressure-less defense? Yes, please.

The Asterisk

This could either detonate the slate or turn into Bears 6, Raiders 3, with everyone involved carted off by the third quarter. That’s the deal when you swing big. Know the risk, accept the variance, and lean into the chaos.

Closing Thought

DFS is gambling dressed up in spreadsheets. Stack your Bears and Raiders, sprinkle in a king like Henry, and don’t cry if it flames out. It’s called a swing for the fences, not a bunt down the line. If it connects, we’re all drinking on your dime.

Look, if you can’t draw sweeping, definitive conclusions after exactly 5.8% of the NFL season, then what are you even doing? Watching for nuance? Waiting for “a larger sample size”? Please. This is America. One week is plenty. Here’s what we now absolutely, without question, take-to-the-bank know after Week 1:

1. Josh Allen is the best quarterback in the NFL

Not controversial, but it bears repeating. Watching him Sunday night was like watching a master chef build a soufflé while your microwave mac-and-cheese explodes in the background. He’s in his own class, and he just engineered a comeback that erased all doubt.

2. Russell Wilson is washed

And not “this shirt’s a little faded” washed. We’re talking “left it in the machine for three cycles with bleach and now it’s a dish rag” washed. Against a Commanders defense softer than hotel pillows, Russ was still unwatchable. The Jackson Dart era in New York can’t be far away.

3. Matthew Stafford’s back is fine

Preseason whispers about aggravated discs had everyone playing amateur chiropractors. Then Week 1 came and Stafford carved up Houston like he’d been sleeping on a Tempur-Pedic. Will he still throw two or three stinkers this season? Of course. But the back isn’t the issue.

4. Danny Dimes wasn’t the problem in New York

He may have contributed to the problem, but turns out coaching matters. Drop him in Indy, hand him a playbook that doesn’t look like a middle school science fair project, and suddenly he looks competent. Let’s see him against a real defense before we crown him the Prince of Naptown.

5. Derrick Henry is still the sun, moon, and stars of RBs

Yes, he coughed up an unforgiveable fumble that opened the door for Allen’s heroics. But nobody changes the geometry of a defense like Henry. Bijan and Jahmyr will fill your fantasy box scores. Henry fills your nightmares. He’s aging like a ballerina too.

6. The Packers are going to win 13 games

Maybe more. The rest of the NFC looks like window dressing at this point. Adding Micah Parsons to that roster is like giving an F-150 a jet engine. Everyone drools over Philly and just assumes they’ll be back in the big game, but Green Bay is the real heavyweight.

7. The Browns are better than you think

Playoffs might be too rich, but they’re not pushovers. A decent kicker away from beating Cincy, who are supposedly primed for a bounce back season, they should win a fair amount of games. The defense muzzled Ja’Marr Chase and held the Bengals to 17. That’s not luck; that’s substance.

8. Jaxon Smith-Njigba is criminally underrated

If you watched him last year, you saw it coming. Now with DK and Lockett out of his way, he’s ready to pop. The rest of the Seahawks are mid, so his brilliance might get lost, but check back in Week 17. You’ll see the numbers.

9. NFL “analysts” don’t know squat

There are a few decent ones, but by and large, they’re carnival barkers with click quotas. Don’t confuse bluster with wisdom. Yet even a broken clock nails a hot take occasionally, and they might be right about J.J. McCarthy. His first half was a disaster, his second half was gangster. A lot of younger guys fall apart at the seams after a brutal start to a game. Only real tough guys come out firing and leading comebacks. He looks like a real dude.

10. The Chargers are making the playoffs

Yes, the AFC is a meat grinder. Yes, this is the conference with the Bills and Ravens. This is also the conference with the Chiefs, but L.A. just beat them fair and square, and they’re loaded with talent. Don’t sleep on them unless you enjoy waking up broke after betting against them.

The Close: 5.8% Faith

This is the part where the boring people tell you it’s “too early” to make proclamations. But that’s coward talk. Week 1 is the Rosetta Stone, the burning bush, the etched-in-stone commandments of football truth. If Josh Allen falls off, if Russell Wilson finds the fountain of youth, if the Browns implode—fine. We’ll just pretend we never said any of this and move on to Week 2 like everyone else.

Until then? These are facts. Etched in granite. Book them. Bet them. Tattoo them on your lower back. Because in this league, 5.8% of the season is all you need to know everything.