It comes down to simple math, really. There’s two of us here at The Stain, so you get two mock drafts. For those of you who remember, Shaun nailed the first seven picks last year, after much trash talking by me. So this year, I’m doing it a little bit differently. Humbly, I… ah, who am I kidding. I’m still talking trash. The following is my first round mock for the 2016 NFL draft. Couple of disclaimers, I’m not projecting trades, though as Shaun and I agree, there could be many. And second, these picks are a combination of how I think the draft will play out, and my opinion of what should be done by the team. And without further ado.

1. Los Angeles Rams: Jared Goff, QB, Cal. I’d take Wentz. And as a Rams fan, I didn’t like the trade. But I get it. QB is an issue, the move to LA, gotta appeal to a new/old fanbase and make a splash. Wentz has the higher ceiling, but Goff the higher floor, and is therefore a safer pick. And though it might be the first time in nearly five years with Fisher as coach that the team does something that makes sense from a roster perspective, it kind of does.

2. Philadelphia Eagles: Ezekiel Elliott, RB, OSU. You moron, they didn’t just trade up for the second pick to take a running back! Didn’t they? I mean, all signs point to Wentz, but why would they spend a Brinks truck on Bradford and Chase Daniel, and then draft a quarterback? It just sounds too weird to me. 

3. San Diego Chargers: Laremy Tunsil, OT, Ole Miss. Quietly, Phil Rivers is putting together a Hall of Fame career. And the Chargers are paying him as such, so it would behoove them to keep him protected. Tunsil could replace King Dunlap at left tackle immediately.

4. Dallas Cowboys: Jalen Ramsey, CB, FSU. If they’re pissed about missing out on Elliott, they won’t show it too much. Ramsey is a superstar at a position the ‘Boys sorely need to shore up.

5. Jacksonville Jaguars: Ronnie Stanley, OT, ND. This Jags offense is going to be pretty good, but they need to protect Blake Bortles better. This is a good way to start doing that.

6. Baltimore Ravens: Joey Bosa, DE, OSU. He was once projected to be the first overall pick. He seems to be a bit of a one trick pony, but he’s certainly exceptional at it. 

7. San Francisco 49rs: DeForest Buckner. Here’s where it gets really interesting. There’s a quarterback still on the board who isn’t a reach. But since Justin Smith retired and Aldon Smith went all criminal and stuff, pass rusher is a huge need. Like…yuuuuuge.

8. Cleveland Browns: Carson Wentz, QB, NDSU. If this happens, Cleveland wins the draft. I don’t even care what they do with the rest of their picks. 

9. Tampa Bay Bucs: Sheldon Rankins, DT, Louisville. I don’t know if the scheme fits here, but the Bucs need defensive line help. They’ve got nearly everything else covered. They’re not far away from being good.

10. New York Giants: Darron Lee, LB, OSU. My favorite player in the draft. You could argue he’s smallish but he is one of the best players in the entire draft irrespective of position and will play at a Pro Bowl level from day one. 

11. Chicago Bears: Shaq Lawson, DE, Clemson. The Bears aren’t just one player away, so if they can find a taker, they will probably trade down. If not, Lawson can fill one of the 48 holes they have on defense.

12. New Orleans Saints: Laquan Treadwell, WR, Ole Miss. What good is a transcendent quarterback if he has nobody to throw to? This could also be Doctson or Fuller… or if you really want to reach, Shepard. 

13. Miami Dolphins: Vernon Hargreaves, CB, Florida. Cornerback isn’t really a giant need, but he’s a Florida kid and a plug and play starter. I’m surprised I didn’t have him gone to someone else before this.

14. Oakland Raiders: Jarran Reed, DT, Alabama. Again, the scheme might be conflicting but he could sort of be a poor man’s Aaron Donald, and anyone who has seen the Rams play the last two seasons can tell you that is the highest of compliments. Some rating systems had him as ranked as high or higher than JJ Watt. 

15. Tennessee Titans: Jack Conklin, OT, MSU. Young stud quarterback. Newly acquired star running back. Blocking for them makes sense. 

16. Detroit Lions: Josh Doctson, WR, TCU. Knee jerk reaction? Hey, why not. Players like Calvin Johnson are irreplacable, but you have to start working toward filling the void in production his retirement created. 

17. Atlanta Falcons: Reggie Ragland, LB, Alabama. In the oversimplification of oversimplifications, a really good player on a really good defense makes sense to pick just about anywhere. But especially here. 

18. Indianapolis Colts: Taylor Decker, OT, OSU. If Andrew Luck’s emulsified inner organs last season weren’t the wake up call the Colts needed, then I don’t know what will be. I don’t know if it’s Decker, or maybe Ryan Kelly or Cody Whitehair on the interior, but if they don’t draft offensive line help here, I quit. Well, no I don’t. But Colts fans should.

19. Buffalo Bills: Robert Nkemdiche, DT, Ole Miss. This is kind of a huge risk here, but think about who the coach is in Buffalo and tell me this doesn’t at least make some sense to you. How far do you expect a kid to drop over a measly fall from a hotel window anyway?

20. New York Jets: Eli Apple, CB, OSU. Revis and Cromartie aren’t getting any younger. Just sayin’…

21. Washington Redskins: Cory Coleman, WR, Baylor. The ‘Skins receivers aren’t exactly poster children for durability. And Coleman is a burner in the DeSean Jackson mold. 

22. Houston Texans: Ryan Kelly, C, Alabama. Kelly can play anywhere on the interior line. The Texans’ investment in Brock Osweiler is not as absurd as it seems on the surface, but it’s still an investment worth protecting.

23. Minnesota Vikings: Leonard Floyd, OLB, Georgia. This would be a huge value here for the Vikes. It’s adding to a nice accumulation of riches already on defense, but I don’t see any real offensive weapons to add here that won’t have a reasonable facsimile available next round.

24. Cincinnati Bengals: Artie Burns, CB, Miami. The Bengals got excellent play from Pacman Jones last season, but he’s 32. There aren’t a ton of holes on this very good team. You could maybe make a case for Sterling Shepard here, but I’m going DB.

25. Pittsburgh Steelers: William Jackson, CB, Houston. The Steelers got ruinously bad cornerback play last year, and only slightly better offensive line play. Take your pick, but one has to be addressed.

26. Seattle Seahawks: Germain Ifedi, OT, Texas A & M. Few picks make as much sense as Ifedi to the Seahawks here. There’s a chance he’s not on the board, but they’ve got to go tackle here. 

27. Green Bay Packers: Su’a Cravens, LB, USC. I don’t really know what position Cravens profiles at in the pros. But he’s a solid playmaker and there’s some USC pedigree at Lambeau already.

28. Kansas City Chiefs: Will Fuller, WR, Notre Dame. The receiving problems are real, people. The receiving problems are real. I mean, Jeremy Maclin helped but…

29. Arizona Cardinals: Paxton Lynch, QB, Memphis. Ok, I’m just gonna be honest. I have to put him somewhere. And Carson Palmer can’t play forever. And I don’t think they see Drew Stanton as a long term heir. 

30. Carolina Panthers: Karl Joseph, S, West Virginia. Pretty deep team gets a chance to fill one of its very few holes. Kinda makes sense. They could try to replace a certain cornerback who bolted to D.C. too, but I don’t see one that slots in at 30.

31. Denver Broncos: Andrew Billings, DT, Baylor. Superbowl team loses Malik Jackson to free agency. Good player is available in draft. Superbowl team picks good player to replace departed good player. If only teams thought as logically as I do, this pick would happen.

32. New England Patriots: The Patriots do not have a first round pick as punishment for cheating. Again. At least they were creative about it.

Shaun did a really nice job going into detail on some additional players and where he thinks they’re going to go. I’m going to focus on just a couple. Rarely do you have two guys who could stake legit claims to being top five picks not being taken in the first round. This year, you do in Jaylon Smith and Myles Jack, the outstanding linebackers from Notre Dame and UCLA respectively.

Both young men have some serious concerns with their knees. Smith’s is more serious as some talent evaluators are saying they don’t even think he sees the field in 2016. People aren’t quite as paranoid about Jack’s knee, but I can’t see anyone risking a first rounder on him either until some reputable medical source clears him at 100%, and it ain’t gonna go down like that. The fourth round is when you can probably start picturing teams becoming willing to part with a pick to redshirt Smith for year, and I don’t see Jack falling past the Giants twice, if he even does once, so he won’t drop out of the second. What’s my point? I don’t really have one. Something just makes me a little wistful when great players drop in the draft due to injuries.

Anyway, come at me bros. Hit us up on twitter @thestainsports to let us know if you agree or disagree with our picks.  

This is not a mock draft trying to predict who is going where as that is pretty close to impossible, especially this year, but instead a mock draft as to who I would pick if I were in the given team’s shoes. I will not predict any trades, although I would not be shocked to see any, if not all, the picks from 3-5 move after one and two have already been dealt, and who knows what happens from there. So, with all that said, here is who I would select for each team.

1) Los Angeles Rams – Carson Wentz – QB – North Dakota State – Long term he will be the better quarterback than Goff and he fits what the Rams want to do better. The Rams will run their offense through Todd Gurley, and Wentz has experience turning his back to the defense to run play action and getting his eyes up the field quickly, something Goff does not have experience with.

2) Philadelphia Eagles – Jared Goff – QB – Cal – There is a part of me that really wants to put Ezekiel Elliot here, in fact I am going away from my intro paragraph as if I were the Eagles that is exactly who I would pick, but you give up what they traded for a running back. So the pick has to be the best available QB, which is Goff.

3) San Diego Chargers – Jalen Ramsey – CB/S – Florida State – In my initial version of this I had them selecting Laremy Tunsil, but they have solid tackles in King Dunlap and Joe Barksdale while their secondary needs more help. Ramsey is a difference maker and his positional questions could also make him position versatile, which is a huge plus in today’s NFL.

4) Dallas Cowboys – Joey Bosa – DE – Ohio State – Chances are they go Elliot here, and I will yell at my TV more than Torsten when the Rams take Goff, but the Cowboys need help on the defensive line, especially when it comes to getting at the QB. They must be passing the joint around in every D-line meeting as half the depth chart there is facing drug suspensions, so adding a difference maker is desperately needed.

5) Jacksonville Jaguars – Myles Jack – OLB – UCLA – I don’t have access to his medical records, obviously, so I don’t truly know what kind of risk this is, especially after their first round pick last year missed the whole season due to injury, but Jack could be a huge impact guy for them. Adding him and a healthy Fowler to the Jags defense to go with an offense that is already solid just might be enough to make them real playoff contenders.

6) Baltimore Ravens – DeForest Buckner – DE – Oregon – The Ravens would love to see Ramsey and/or Bosa get to them, but instead here they are left debating between Tunsil and Buckner. In the end, defensive line is a much bigger need and, despite the depth at the position in this draft, Buckner is a better fit. He is a physical specimen who will be able to really disrupt the passing lanes in a really competitive division, Cleveland not included.

7) San Francisco 49ers – Reggie Ragland – MLB – Alabama – This is a spot the draft could go a little nuts if they decide to reach for a QB like Paxton Lynch, but it is time the 49ers get back to what they were when they were successful recently, and that is a very good defensive team. They have been absolutely decimated at linebacker due to retirements, and Ragland can sit in the middle and command the D.

8) Cleveland Browns – Laremy Tunsil – OT – Ole Miss – One thing is certain, the Browns will not make this pick because it might actually turn out well. They have the makings of a decent offensive line, but they need someone to play right tackle this year and take the reigns from Joe Thomas when he finally gets the chance to get out of town. Tunsil is arguably the best player in the draft, and the Browns would have traded back and still got him in this scenario, which is a scenario we all know the Browns will find a way to screw up and redraft Manziel or take Noah Spence or Nkemdiche.

9) Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Ronnie Stanley – OT – Notre Dame – You have your franchise QB in Jameis Winston, you resigned Doug Martin, you have the biggest group of pass catchers in football, protect them. Some have said Stanley is a better prospect than Tunsil, so take him here and focus the rest of the draft on improving the defense.

10) New York Giants – Leonard Floyd – OLB – Georgia – Quick, name a Giants starting linebacker, yeah, I couldn’t do it either. I went back and forth between Darron Lee and Floyd here, but I am hearing a ton about Floyd being a great fit for the Giants, so I will put him here.

11) Chicago Bears – Darron Lee – OLB – Ohio State – I think the Bears really want Floyd to fall to them, but if he goes to the Giants at ten, just pick the guy I was debating there. He has more strength and a thicker body, which will allow him to play at the end of the line when needed, and is a solid linebacker, a win-win for the Bears.

12) New Orleans Saints – Sheldon Rankins – DT – Louisville – I could see the Saints taking a big WR here like Laquon Treadwell and then going all defense the rest of the draft, or they could just focus completely on fixing that terrible defense. Rankins is a big body that can also disrupt the passing game from the interior, which can help the defense as a whole.

13) Miami Dolphins – Ezekiel Elliot – RB – Ohio State – If the Dolphins are able to stay at 13 and still get the guy they want/need, they will be doing backflips in the war room, and I say they get him. They lost Lamar Miller, Jay Ajayi is a good RB but not an every down back, Elliot can be a game changer for them. This is one of the easiest picks I had in the whole first round.

14) Oakland Raiders – William Jackson III – CB – Houston – The Raiders actually have a decent offense but do need a running back. Elliot is off the board and there are not any other first round options at the position, so the focus will shift to the defense. Their secondary needs help and Jackson is the second best player in the secondary in this draft. He is the biggest first round corner and should be able to handle the best receivers in the division.

15) Tennessee Titans – Jack Conklin – OT – Michigan State – While Tunsil and Stanley have the higher upside, many say Conklin is the offensive lineman most ready to step in day one and make a difference. The Titans collected a boat load of draft picks and still get their biggest need by sticking at 15, this is a win for them and now can take their plethora of second round picks to get back into the back end of the first round if a corner they really like slips.

16) Detroit Lions – Shaq Lawson – DE – Clemson – This is the toughest pick for me thus far as the Lions could go in several different directions. I was tempted to put Taylor Decker here, I was also debating between A’Shawn Robinson and Jarron Reed to line up next to Haloti Ngata and be his eventual replacement, but I like Lawson to line up opposite one of the most underrated pass rusher in the NFL, Ziggy Ansah. There will likely be a solid DT when they come up in the second round but there won’t be many pass rushers left, and that ultimately was the tie breaker for me.

17) Atlanta Falcons – Kamalei Correa – OLB/DE – Boise State – The industry seems to like Darron Lee here, but I have Lee going much earlier. This might be the pick I end up being furthest from true draft position on, but I really like Correa. I was tempted to put Kevin Dodd here, but I see a ton of bust potential there and I think the floor for Correa is higher. He can serve a pair of needs as the Falcons need help at linebacker and also need someone that can get to the QB no team had fewer sacks than them last year, Correa does both.

18) Indianapolis Colts – Taylor Decker – OT – Ohio State – Few teams allow hits on their quarterback with more frequency than the Colts. Few teams have a better young quarterback than the Colts. Therefore the Colts need upgrades at offensive line. Seriously, it is that straight forward.

19) Buffalo Bills – Kevin Dodd – DE – Clemson – The Bills defense was terrible, especially for a Rex Ryan team, and they released Mario Williams while signing nobody of note to replace him. I just recently said Dodd has bust potential, which he does, but he also has big sack number potential. He can start from day one and could make an impact, or he could be like the Bills defense from last year and be MIA, time will tell.

20) New York Jets – Corey Coleman – WR – Baylor – Here is a surprise pick that I unfortunately like for the Jets (I am still a Patriots fan after all). They have Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker on the outside, but the NFL is a three or more receiver set league, so an elite speed/slot guy is important. They signed Matt Forte in the offseason, so this would make the Jets one of the more feared offenses on the game, if they have a QB. Many people have Paxton Lynch here, and if he were more ready to produce I might as well, but I still believe they sign Ryan Fitzpatrick and Coleman would help give the Jets one of the most feared group of pass catchers in the league.

21) Washington Redskins – Jarran Reed – DT – Alabama – The Redskins could use a guy to handle the nose and Reed is arguably the best run stuffer in the draft. Karl Joseph would be an interesting pick, and he would be the best safety the team has had since Sean Taylor, and going at #21 would be a cool coincidence, but defensive tackle is the bigger need.

22) Houston Texans – Laquon Treadwell – WR – Ole Miss – The Texans would be thrilled to see this play out. Possibly the best receiver in the draft falling to them all the way at 22 to line up opposite DeAndre Hopkins and be another target for new QB Brock Osweiler. If Treadwell isn’t here in the draft, expect them to go best available WR, Josh Doctson would be a nice consolation prize, but here I have Treadwell falling to them.

23) Minnesota Vikings – Josh Doctson – WR – TCU – Another team in desperate need of a number two wide receiver, and Doctson just might be the guy best suited to have the best rookie year. He can win one-on-one matchups, even making Trevone Boykin look like a good passer at times in college. Stefon Diggs was an absolute steal of a find last year, but Jarius Wright is slated to be their number two receiver right now, and that is no way to help Teddy Bridgewater and the Vikings open up a new building.

24) Cincinnati Bengals – Will Fuller – WR – Notre Dame – Say hello to your Wide Receiver run.  The Bengals would probably be disappointed if Fuller was the best receiver left when it is their turn to pick and would work the phones to see if anyone wants to come up for a QB so they can move back and get Fuller later, but there are no trades in this mock draft. Fuller is one of the fastest receivers in the draft and the number two and three receivers are guys who couldn’t succeed with Tom Brady as their QB (Brandon LaFell and Brandon Tate). See everything I said about the need opposite Hopkins and Diggs in the previous two picks, and just substitute A.J. Green’s name.

25) Pittsburgh Steelers – Karl Joseph – S – West Virginia – The biggest hitter from the secondary, if not in the draft all together, is Karl Joseph, and doesn’t that just fit the Steelers perfectly? They could really use help at corner and safety, and taking a guy like Vernon Hargreaves or Eli Apple could easily be the decision, but it is hart to pass up a guy like Joseph to a team like the Steelers.

26) Seattle Seahawks – Germain Ifedi – OT – Texas A&M – When it comes to guys that just fit a team’s persona, Robert Nkemdiche is a really tempting pick here, but in the end need comes before juiciness. Much like the Colts, the Seahawks have had trouble protecting their star QB, and they don’t have a stud at any spot on the line. Luckily Ifedi can play multiple positions, and is probably best suited for right tackle or guard, spots that need upgrading.

27) Green Bay Packers – A’Shawn Robinson – DT – With B.J. Raji “retired”, the Packers need someone new to show Aaron Rogers what he’s got along the offensive line (insert annoying “show me what you got Raji” jingle here). Robinson has the potential to go in the top 15, and this is a real need for the Packers all the way at 27, so a steal of a pick for the Pack.

28) Kansas City Chiefs – Eli Apple – CB – Ohio State – I have the corners really falling in this draft, as there are several who would probably see Apple, Hargreaves, and even Mackensie Alexander already gone here, but I am not most people. Marcus Peters had a fantastic year for the Chiefs last year, adding Apple to the other side would give them a dynamic duo of very young and talented corners that will make Justin Houston and Tamba Hali blitzing off the edge even better, if that is even possible. Paxton Lynch is also a guy I could see them going with as the future replacement to Alex Smith, but the corners falling is too tempting to pass up.

29) Arizona Cardinals – Vernon Hargreaves – CB – Florida – I was really tempted put Noah Spence here to team with Calais Campbell and Chandler Jones giving the Cards a truly scary pass rush, but adding Hargreaves to the secondary can be equally as scary. I have seen Hargreaves ranked in some outlets top ten players in the draft, so adding him opposite Patrick Peterson and giving the Honey Badger even more freedom to do what he does is a scary thought for teams facing an already excellent defense.

30) Carolina Panthers – Artie Burns – CB – Miami – The Panthers were likely going to go corner even before they let Josh Norman go, now they pretty much have to. They might be a candidate to move up to ensure they get the one they want, but have a lot of needs given they were just in the Super Bowl. Burns is a recent riser and a solid corner, but he isn’t a lock down guy. Luckily the Panthers are not a team that plays a ton of one-on-one coverage, so the other corner and safety they draft with their next two picks will certainly help.

31) Denver Broncos – Robert Nkemdiche – DT – Ole Miss – I have been tempted to put Cody Whitehair here to solidify their interior offensive line, and there is an obvious need at QB, but Nkemdiche is the guy for me. The Broncos have an excellent defense, especially on the ends, but they don’t have the guy to hold down the middle of the line, and if there is a team that has the flexibility to take a shot on a guy on that side of the ball it is the Broncos. Nkemdiche is one of the most athletic guys in the entire draft and represents a potential steal for the Broncos.

I am never satisfied with just doing a single round of a mock draft, but I also don’t want to bog this down with round after round of me just projecting guys, so I decided I will highlight some interesting picks I see, starting with the quarterbacks.

Paxton Lynch – QB – Memphis – Cleveland Brown – 32^nd overall, 1^st pick of the second round.

Christian Hackenberg – QB – Penn State – Chicago Bears – 41^st overall, 10^th pick of the second round.

Connor Cook – QB – Michigan State – Kansas City Chiefs – 59^th overall, 28^th pick of the second round.

Dak Prescott – QB – Mississippi State – Denver Broncos – 63^rd overall, 32^nd pick of the second round.

Brandon Allen – QB – Arkansas – Dallas Cowboys – 67^th overall, 4^th pick of the third round.

Cardale Jones – QB – Ohio State – San Francisco 49ers – 68^th overall, 5^th pick of the third round.

Kevin Hogan – QB – Stanford – Buffalo Bills – 117^th overall, 19^th pick of the fourth round.

Jacoby Brissett – QB – NC State – New York Jets – 118^th overall, 20^th pick of the fourth round.

Brandon Doughty – QB – Western Kentucky – Arizona Cardinals, 128^th overall, 30^th pick of the fourth round.

Vernon Adams – QB – Oregon – Seattle Seahawks – 171^st overall, 34^th pick of the fifth round.

Other position guys I liked where they fell (or at least found interesting in my projections):

Noah Spence – DE – Eastern Kentucky – Tennessee Titans – 33^rd overall, 2^nd pick of the second round.

Derrick Henry – RB – Alabama – Dallas Cowboys – 34^th overall, 3^rd pick of the second round.

Ryan Kelly – C – Alabama – Jacksonville Jaguars – 38^th overall, 7^th pick of the second round.

Emmanuel Ogbah – DE – Oklahoma State – 47^th overall, 16^th pick of the second round.

Su’a Cravens – OLB – USC – Atlanta Falcons – 50^th overall, 19^th pick of the second round.

Nick Martin – C – Notre Dame – Washington Redskins – 53^rd overall, 20^th pick of the second round.

Javon Hargrave – DT – South Carolina State – Cincinnati Bengals – 55^th overall, 24^th pick of the second round.

Jaylon Smith – OLB – Notre Dame – New England Patriots – 60^th overall, 29^th pick of the second round.

Kenneth Dixon – RB – Louisiana Tech – New England Patriots – 61^st overall, 30^th pick of the second round.

Braxton Miller – WR – Ohio State – Philadelphia Eagles – 79^th overall, 16^th pick of the third round.

Robert Aguayo – PK – Florida State – Buffalo Bills – 80^th overall, 17^th pick of the third round.

Scooby Wright – MLB – Arizona – Green Bay Packers – 163^rd overall, 26^th pick of the sixth round.

 

-Shaun Kernahan

If you’re sports fan, you know by now that the Los Angeles Rams have traded up to get the number one overall pick from Tennessee in exchange for multiple premium picks this year and next. You’ve probably also noticed, that is if you care, that everyone and their mother basically fell all over themselves trying to be the first one out there with comprehensive analysis of what it means. Ultimately, it’s pretty much split down the middle between having overpaid for the pick, or gotten a good deal. It’s split down the middle whether they take Jared Goff or Carson Wentz. It’s split down the middle whether they needed to make a move like this. It’s split. Why? Because nobody has any idea what they’re talking about. Nobody. Nobody from respected football experts like Mel Kiper, to former players like Ross Tucker, to hack bloggers like us. Why? Because history hasn’t been written yet. Nobody will know whether this was the right thing to do until a couple of years from now when it can be objectively looked back on. Now, all that said, everyone has opinions. So do we. Here are two reasons from us why this trade can spectacularly implode on the Rams, or how it can be resounding success – because middle ground is no fun.

How it can fail:

#1: They draft Jared Goff, or anyone other than Carson Wentz. Let’s be honest here, this is Jeff Fisher we’re talking about so a Laquan Treadwell pick can’t be entirely discounted. But assuming it’s a quarterback, picking Goff would be calamitous. Why? Look, there’s not a ton wrong with the kid. He’s fairly safe, in terms of quarterback picks go. High floor. Smart. Got some talent. But you don’t mortgage your next two drafts to pick a kid who will be a serviceable pro. If you’re shoveling premium picks out the door to draft a quarterback first overall, you’re doing it to get a guy who can be transcendent. Otherwise, why not keep your own first rounder and both of your seconds, draft three starters with them, and ride Case Keenum into battle.

#2: They do the right thing and grab Wentz, but sharpie him in as the Week 1 starter. Even the most fervent Wentz supporter will tell you, he’s a project. He needs to sit and learn for a year or two. But again, this is Jeff Fisher we’re talking about. There are things that Fisher does well as a coach. He educates his rookies on financial responsibility and what it means to be a pro, he keeps his veterans fresh by giving them rest days, he… yeah, that about covers it. He’s beyond any doubt the most overrated coach in the history of professional football. If anyone can scupper the bright future of a talented quarterback, it’s Fisher.

How it can succeed:

#1: They take Wentz and he’s as good as everyone hopes. But it’s not that simple. He needs time. The step up from Division I AA to the NFL is huge, and while it’s not a prohibitive step, it’s not one that can be taken instantly. He’ll have to spend at least a year, if not two, learning to make NFL progressions, hot reads, a bunch other quarterback buzzwords, AND, he’ll have to adapt his running style. There is no doubting his supreme athletic ability, but it’s one thing to flatten a Division I AA linebacker on a designed run, it’s entirely another to try it on Bobby Wagner.

#2: They take Goff and he proves me terribly wrong. Instead of the league average, reasonably solid quarterback he projects to be, the switch flips and he becomes a monster. Let’s be honest, Russell Wilson, one of the best quarterbacks in the league right now, wasn’t a first round pick. Aaron Rodgers didn’t get picked until the end of the first round. So sure, it’s within the realm of possibility that the kid turns out to be an absolute stud. It’s just not likely. And I’m exceedingly rarely wrong on stuff like this. Not because I know everything, but because I keep my mouth shut about things I don’t know about. All my married friends can sympathize. But in any case, I’ll be the happiest guy this side of the Mississippi if I’m wrong now.

-Torsten Sporn

It is time for baseball season and time to put together our season previews. On this version of Thoughts from the Throne, we will each tell you who will win each division, the Wild Card participants, and the major awards, so here we go. 

Who will be the AL division winners?

Shaun: Toronto Blue Jays, Kansas City Royals, Houston Astros. The Blue Jays just have too much power and play in a division with a number of hitter’s parks. There are some injury concerns with Edwin Encarnacion coming into the season, and I would not project them to win a postseason series with the current rotation, but I think they have enough to win the division. The Royals have never not made the World Series when I have attended their camp, coincidence, I think not. They have a great clubhouse chemistry and a lights out bullpen (I am not worried about Wade Davis’ velocity right now). Raul Mondessi has looked fantastic this spring and will likely take the second base job from Omar Infante at some point. The Astros only real weakness right now is at first base, but they have one of the best power hitters in the minor leagues knocking on the door. Carlos Correa will compete for the MVP this year and they only have more special players on the way.

Torsten: Blue Jays, Tigers, Rangers. Hey, did you hear about that team where Troy Tulowitzki was their fourth best hitter? There’s some question marks with Toronto’s pitching, but with the rest of the AL East a jumble of mediocrity, the Jays should coast home comfortably. I also really like what the Tigers did. Need some more starting pitching? Heck, let’s get Jordan Zimmerman. Little light on right handed pop? With Miggy and JD Martinez, not really, but what the hell? Let’s sign the criminally underrated Justin Upton anyway. The bullpen is a worry, but they should be able to address that at the deadline. Did you happen to notice how Texas finished the season last year? In case you didn’t, they were very strong down the stretch. And they will get Yu Darvish back soon to pair with Cole Hamels. That ain’t bad. 

Who will be the NL division winners?

Shaun: Washington Nationals, Pittsburgh Pirates, San Francisco Giants. Yes, I am going a bit contrarian here, but I believe in it. The Mets rotation is scary, but their defense is ugly. David Wright is hurt too often, Asdrubal Cabrera has never been great with the glove, Neil Walker is no Gold Glover, and Lucas Duda literally threw away a World Series game. Then in the outfield you have an aging Curtis Granderson, an ailing Michael Conforto, and Yoenis Cespedes in center who seems to give away inside the park home runs for every Matt Harvey start. It will likely be a frustrating year for the Mets given current expectations. The Cubs are great, but the Pirates have a chip on their shoulder. Everyone is talking about the Cubs taking the reigns from the Cardinals, but they have to leapfrog the NL Central 3-time runners up. They have arguably the best outfield in all of baseball, an underrated infield (other than first, they are just bad there) and a pitching staff that does not get enough credit. Add Taillon and Glasnow both knocking on the door and the powerful Josh Bell a first base option late in the year, and the Pirates will make a late push to take the Division. For the Giants, it is an even numbered year, so that should say it all, right? Need more, fine…the Giants have the best infield in baseball that you don’t know. Duffy-Crawford-Panik-Belt are all completely underrated and the argument could be made for each as top ten at their position in all of baseball. Add the speedy Denard Span and a big money rotation, and they should take the division.

Torsten: Mets, Pirates, Dodgers. Once Zach Wheeler comes back around June, the Mets will essentially be trotting out five aces in their rotation. You wonder if they can catch the ball well enough, which is why I don’t think they’ll go far in the post season, but it won’t be easy to score on them. In the Steel City, I don’t see a whole lot wrong with that Pirate’s roster, aside from John Jaso’s do. The Dodgers have a lot of injuries at the moment, but they are deep, and people are making way too much out of Arizona and San Francisco’s pitching acquisitions. By the trade deadline, they Dodgers will be “acquiring” two good pitchers (Ryu and McCarthy) with a third (Anderson) soon after. It’s hard to compete with that.

Who will face off in the AL Wild Card Game?  

Shaun: The Boston Red Sox and Texas Rangers. The Red Sox have added an ace and a closer and still have one of the best farm systems in baseball to make moves for more (and Dave Dombrowski isn’t afraid to do just that). Hanley Ramirez is actually poised for a resurgent year and should play an above-average first base. Pablo Sandoval has looked poor, but Travis Shaw has looked great, so they will get solid production there. The outfield looks to be a pair of platoons, but it doesn’t matter how you get the production, so long as you get the production. The Rangers (again a team I spend a lot of time around) are just fun and Brian Bannister is the perfect coach for that team. Darvish will be returning this year and they get a full season of Cole Hamels. Ian Desmond is a really interesting addition in the outfield while Rougned Odor (not to be confused with his brother Rougned Odor) is going to be a breakout star this season at second  base. 

Torsten:  Astros and Royals. It really just now occurred to me how many teams could possibly be here. The AL (outside of the East where pretty much everyone but the Jays is critically flawed) has some great depth. But the Astros are legit (like someone predicted last year…not going to mention any names but it was me) and haven’t lost anything important, and the Royals are the defending champs, and have lost pretty much only Cueto of consequence. 

Who will face off in the NL Wild Card Game?

Shaun:  Chicago Cubs and St. Louis Cardinals. Yes, Torsten, this means the Dodgers miss out on the playoffs. The Cubs finished with 97 wins last season and placed third in their division. They are even better this year with the addition of Jason Heyward (from the Cardinals), Ben Zobrist, and natural progression of their incredible young talent. Their rotation could use an addition or two down the stretch though. Ruben Tejada being cut by the Mets is the best thing that could have happened for the Cardinals, who will be starting the year without Jhonny Peralta. They may also start the season without Yadier Molina, but he seems to be making great progress. The names to remember are Randal Grichuk and Stephen Piscotty. Both are fantastic ballplayers and will be key players for the club. 

Torsten: Nationals and Cubs. I really don’t love either team’s bullpen, and I think Jake Arrieta regresses big time in the wake of his questionably deserved Cy Young award. But that line up is deep. The Nats appear stacked on paper, but I don’t buy Dusty Baker as a manager anymore. And you heard it here first, Bryce Harper will still be good, but a regression to mere mortal status is in order. (editor’s note: When this section was first being written, the Diamondbacks were in serious consideration. However, you can’t overcome the loss of AJ Pollock. He was quietly 9th in MLB in WAR for 2015, including 3rd among all outfielders – with harper nearly two full wins above the rest of the pack. Shame for the D Backs, and for Pollock, but that’s how it goes sometimes.) 

Who will win the AL MVP, Cy Young, and Rookie of the Year?

Shaun: The MVP will be Mookie Betts. Call me a homer, but the kid can flat out play. He has more power than you would expect, he can steal bags, and plays great defense in the outfield for a converted second baseman. I think he will narrowly edge out Carlos Correa. Cole Hamels will walk away with the Cy Young. His home ballpark won’t help, but division foes like the Angels (terrible outside of Trout and Pujols), Mariners (overrated yet again this year), and A’s (huge ballpark and a weak lineup) will help. The Astros are a quality lineup in the division, but they have a ton of swing and miss potential. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Hamels average 12 K/9 against Houston this year. The Rookie of the Year will be Byron Buxton. He will finally get the chance to shine in the big leagues and will show everyone why he has long been the top prospect in baseball. This would be the Twins second ROY in a row, setting them up for a strong run in the near future and may be a sneaky team that competes in the division.

Torsten: Robinson Cano, Sonny Gray, Byron Buxton. The MVP should just be called Best Player, since players from non-playoff teams frequently win. This is kind of a gut call, though he passes the eye test from Spring Training, but Cano is a man on a mission. And Seattle could be sneaky competitive. For my money, Sonny Gray is as good a right handed pitcher as there is in the game. David Ortiz, who knows a little about hitting, says Gray is one of the toughest pitchers he has ever faced. Good enough for me. Shaun and I agree on Buxton. He’s got Mike Trout-like potential. If the injury bug doesn’t bite him, who will compete with him?

Who will win the NL MVP, Cy Young, and Rookie of the Year?

Shaun: Bryce Harper will repeat as MVP. He is one of the best players in all of baseball, he showed it last year, and he will show it again this year. His teammate, Max Scherzer, will win the Cy Young. It seemed like Scherzer was a threat to throw a no hitter every time out last year, and this year should be no different. Zimmerman is no longer committing errors at third, Rendon can play a solid third base, but may move to second to move Daniel Murphy to the outfield when the Rookie of the Year gets called up. Yes, I am calling a trifecta of Nationals award winners. The only thing holding Trea Turner back from winning ROY is his manager, Dusty Baker. Baker has long been cautious with young position players, but Turner is special. I have seen him play, he can fly, he can hit, and he can play very good defense. I spoke with the San Antonio Missions broadcaster early in the season last year to find out how Turner was doing playing for a team he knew he was not a part of (he had been traded to the Nationals as a player to be named later but had to wait until June to move, a rule that has since been changed) and he raved about how well he handled the situation. Turner is the best player in the Wil Myers-Steven Souza deal, and the Nationals also got Joe Ross who will be better than his brother Tyson, not bad by the Nats.

Torsten: Andrew McCutcheon, Clayton Kershaw, and Kenta Maeda. Cutch pretty much does everything for Pittsburgh. He’s the National League’s Mike Trout. It’s going to be a close race with Harper, but as I stated earlier, I think he takes a small step back. There isn’t a better pitcher on the planet than Kershaw. Metrically, he’s on a pace to become one of the best in history. If not for stupidly biased voting (Arrieta) and an otherworldly season from Zack Greinke, he’d have won last year. Lots of people are picking Cory Seager, but while I like him, Maeda makes more sense to me. I don’t like it, because the Japanese top league has become good enough to produce MLB regulars pretty consistently, so those guys shouldn’t have the same eligibility as a kid coming up from the minors. Alas, they do. And historically, it takes a year for hitters to adjust to a new pitcher coming over from Japan. Maeda could have a big year (15+ wins, sub 3 ERA).

Agree? Don’t? Let us know on Twitter @thestainsports. Thank you for reading. 

Hi again. Back onto our soap boxes we go with some of the most pressing topics of the NFL free agency period. (There was a decent time gap between Torsten and Shaun, so some of Torsten’s comments are dated, blame Shaun.)

 

What is the best NFL free agent signing so far?

 

Shaun: I think this is a combo platter for the Raiders. Bruce Irvin adds another pass rusher to work opposite Khalil Mack. He adds championship experience to a young team with a lot of talent. The other is Kelechi Osemele. Osemele is one of the best run blocking guards in all of football, and the Raiders need help there. Their biggest weakness is in the running game, and Osemele instantly improves that part of the game even before they add a dynamic back to the mix. He is not a bad pass blocker either, which will help Derek Carr, who is proving to be the real deal at quarterback.

 

Torsten: If you ask me, it’s one of the most recent. When the Patriots brought aboard Chris Long with a one-year deal, they once again demonstrated that they are just that much smarter than everyone else. Sure, it’s probably easier to recruit players to a team with a consistent track record of winning. But rewind the clock two years, Long is considered an excellent all-around defensive end, not unlike you might expect from a guy once taken with the second overall draft pick. Sure, the last two years have been injury struck for him, but a guy with his track record, even at age 31, could have gotten more money and years. Instead, the Pats get him on the cheap for one year. If he stays healthy and pays off, it’s the genius move of the off-season. If he gets hurt again or experiences a surprising drop off in his level of play, it’s no big deal because the Pats are fairly deep at the position and there’s no commitment beyond this year. It’s the perfect high reward, no risk move.

 

What is the worst NFL free agent signing so far?

 

Shaun: Here comes another duo. The New York Giants overpaid for Olivier Vernon and anything above the veteran’s minimum is overpaying for JPP. Vernon was solid as the number two pass rusher opposite Cameron Wake, but now he is opposite the man who went in for more surgery in Jason Pierre-Paul. The stupidity of a fireworks accident aside, JPP struggled all year trying to find a glove/club that worked for him and has had many surgeries and lost multiple fingers, so of course they re-sign him.

 

Torsten: I don’t have to go very far down the list. I don’t think Malik Jackson is a bad player by any stretch, but if you don’t think his 2015 level of play was inflated at all by being between Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware, you probably have some reevaluating to do. I get it, you’re Jacksonville. The offensive core of Bortles, Robinson, Hurns and Yeldon has you oozing with optimism. You just need that defense to keep up. But for the circa 90 million used to sign Jackson, they could have signed two or three solid players. Add to that the expected return of Dante Fowler, and thing look rosy. But no. 90 million for Malik Jackson. Jeebus…

 

What was your reaction when Brock Osweiler signed with Houston?

 

Shaun: There was nobody I was more sure of in the 2012 NFL draft than Brock Osweiler to the Broncos (outside of Andrew Luck at the top of the draft). They were coming off a year with Tim Tebow at QB, and John Elway had said they wanted a tall, strong armed, pocket passer, so Osweiler was the perfect fit. Even after they signed Peyton Manning I was pounding the table that it was inevitable Elway drafted Osweiler. Now, after winning the Super Bowl, Elway gets the chance to give the prototype he wanted the reigns to his team…and he gets away. When it finally happened, there was enough rumbling that it wasn’t a surprise, but leading up to it I was shocked that Elway let him get away.

 

Torsten: “Holy sh*t!” That’s it. That was my reaction. It wasn’t the fact that he signed with Houston – they were once again done in by ruinously bad quarterback play so it made sense they’d try to address the issue – it was the money, obviously. Upon closer inspection the money doesn’t appear to be quite as absurd as it did at first. But if we’re talking about initial reactions, “shock” would be a good way to describe mine.

 

Who should the Broncos get as their quarterback?

 

Shaun: With RG3 now in Cleveland, I actually think Josh McCown could be a really good fit. He and Sanchez could compete for the starting gig and draft a developmental QB at the back of the first or second round. Guys like Connor Cook, Dak Prescott, and Christian Hackenberg will almost certainly be there for their first pick, and one or two might be there at their second. Dak Prescott has been referred to as the right handed Tim Tebow, so that might be enough to squash his chances in Elway’s eyes, but a trio of Sanchez, McCown, and a developing rookie to go with their defense is enough to be a playoff team.

 

Torsten: Not Mark Sanchez! Kidding. But not really. Look, Sanchez is good enough and experienced enough to justify being employed as a back up quarterback in the NFL. But he’s a risk-taker, and with that amazing defense, the Broncos just need a quarterback who will protect the ball so they can win the field position battle. I think they could win with Ryan Fitzpatrick short term, but the perfect solution isn’t on the market this year. Here’s what I tell Kubiak and Elway if I’m their personnel advisor or something. “Offer Buffalo a conditional 7^th rounder for EJ Manuel, tell him your vision for the position (don’t turn the @#$%ing ball over) and have him compete with Sanchez for the job.” I really don’t think they need the media circus that would come with bringing in RG 3, or worse, Manziel in to compete for the job.

 

Homer Corner: What do you think of your team’s free agency (including trades) activity so far this NFL off-season?

 

Shaun (Patriots): When I first saw all the moves the Patriots were making, I loved it, but have soured in it some. They have a history of selling a year or two early than too late, but Chandler Jones can really disrupt a game. They deal him for a draft pick and Jonathan Cooper, who is an outright bust thus far in his career. They also trade for Martellus Bennett, who I like but is more of a mini-Gronk than an Aaron Hernandez type (murderer not included) that so many have talked about. I do like Chris Long, but they are bringing in a guy who is already a couple years past his prime. The guy I really do like is Shea McClellin. I loved him at Boise State but he really struggled with the Bears. His skill set allows him to be versatile, so a Mike Vrabel comp might be thrown out there, and if he is ½ the player Vrabel was it will be a steal.

 

Torsten (Rams): I think the jury is still out. I often get accused of giving the Rams unfairly low grades because of my dislike for Jeff Fisher, though hindsight almost always proves me right. So far though, I’d have to say they get a C+, with an asterisk indicating it could climb to a B+ or fall to an F.

They’ve done some things right so far. Not paying Janoris Jenkins and Rodney McLeod the crazy money that the Giants and Eagles did was smart. Both are good players but not close to worth that kind of cap-crippling money, especially when they have good depth in the secondary. The commonly agreed upon biggest hole they have is wide receiver, but nobody on the market was worth spending money on, and they haven’t, s that’s good. Keeping Will Hayes was critical – he’s quietly one of the best players in the NFL at his role (rotational defensive line). Keeping Mark Barron was a good move too, even if they overpaid slightly. Cutting Chris Long, James Laurinaitas and Jared Cook was understandable, but here’s where the question marks come up. You can make the argument that all three players had begun performing at a level not commensurate with their salary cap number. This is probably accurate, especially in Long’s case because of injury, but all three guys were still performing at a “useful” level. On a business level, cutting them makes sense so you can replace them with equal or higher performing players at a more cost-effective level. But that only really applies if you actually replace them. So far they haven’t. Here’s how their grade could go up. They use their number 15 overall pick to grab Ohio St. linebacker Darron Lee to fill the void left by Alec Ogletree who slides to the middle for Laurinaitas, and they package their two second rounders to move up and grab Eastern Kentucky’s Noah Spence to fill the void left by Long’s departure, and then sign a veteran pass-catching tight end like Owen Daniels on the cheap. Obviously these are hypotheticals and the names, especially Spence’s in a deeeeeeep DL draft, are interchangeable. But this kind of drafting would make the early moves of free agency make sense. Here’s how their grade could drop. They expect Hayes to become a full-time starter at 31, expect Barron to take over Ogletree’s outside linebacker spot (which he did admirably in 2015) instead of the hybrid backer/safety role he’s better suited (and built) for, and expect young guys like Bryce Hager and Ethan Westbrooks to take huge leaps forward that they’re not ready for. Lastly, and because Jeff Fisher IS an idiot when it comes to roster construction, you can’t rule out that he packages their first rounder and both of their seconds to move up to first or second overall and select Ohio State’s Ezekiel Elliott, because the thought of a Gurley/Elliott backfield is too much for his aging prostate to take.  

We’re back as promised! Many more random text conversations have transpired and now, here we are, ready to take down some of the elephants in baseball’s room. So why don’t we just start with the biggest one.

Did MLB get it right with Aroldis Chapman’s 30 game suspension?

Shaun’s Thoughts: To be determined. In a perfect world the Jose Reyes decision would have come first (correction, in a perfect world there wouldn’t be any domestic violence) but baseball could not wait for the Reyes trial to take place before deciding on Chapman. The fact there was no appeal means this was a negotiated and agreed to punishment, and in reality Chapman will only miss about 15 appearances. The real question comes when all the facts and legal processes play out with Reyes. Will they be able to truly drop the hammer with a full year suspension should it be warranted, or will 30 games become the number all appeals get dropped to. That is where the jury is still out (no pun intended) on the success of the Chapman suspension.

Torsten’s Thoughts: No, quite the opposite. It’s great that they want to make statement against domestic violence, but everything here just smells bad; the alleged greater ban if Chapman appealed is basically extortion. The number of games seems arbitrarily chosen. The threshold for criminal charges not being met is odd. The alleged firing of the gun in the garage is terrifying, but if it wasn’t at his girlfriend, is a separate issue from the DV. I just don’t know. At the risk of oversimplifying, I’d like to see an iron-clad policy in place resembling this: If you’re detained or arrested on suspicion of DV, you’re suspended, with pay, immediately until an investigation can be completed. If you’re confirmed to have actually engaged in DV, you’re suspended for 81 games without pay. If the DV resulted in injury, it’s 162 games. You can’t start serving your suspension while incarcerated. Again, I know I’m probably oversimplifying, but it shouldn’t be difficult to put a policy in place that’s transparent and iron-clad.

Are there any free agents still out there that can help a contending team?

Shaun’s Thoughts: Alex Rios did not have a great year last year, but he can still help a club as a fourth or fifth outfielder. I may be a bit biased as I got to know him a little over the past two springs, but he is impressive. He is from Alabama, grew up in Puerto Rico, and has played more games for a team based in Canada than any other team. He would bring a great locker room presence that can relate to all players regardless of background, he can act as an additional coach, and he can still perform some on the field. He could be a sneaky good pickup for young club looking to make a run. Oh, and he is the type of guy that after you meet in person, you realize he could steal your girl and you wouldn’t even blame her, just saying.

Torsten’s Thoughts: Tim Lincecum. I’m reading he still wants to be a starter but if a team can convince him to transition to a bullpen role, he has shown the ability to be dominant. There’s precedent. Joe Blanton was a useful starter for years, became an oil spill, reinvented himself as a reliever, and was spectacularly good for Pittsburgh. Playoff caliber teams NEED guys who can shut town teams for multiple innings out of the pen. I’m a little befuddled, actually, that he’s resisting making the switch. If I were ever good enough to pitch in the big leagues, I would have preferred relieving over starting. The opportunity to meaningfully impact as many as 80 games in a season sounds more fun than meaningfully impacting 30ish.

Who is your breakout player for 2016?

Shaun’s Thoughts: Saying Mookie Betts would make a play for MVP has actually become somewhat trendy, and Xander Bogaerts was quietly one of the best shortstops in the game last year, but I am not choosing either of them. Instead I am going to pick somebody that last year would have been too easy, but this year is being overlooked. Byron Buxton was the top prospect in all of baseball going into last year for a reason, and we all know what a year it was for rookies. This year, if Buxton can stay healthy, he will become a household name to even the casual fan. He plays great defense and can really run, but at the plate he has fantastic bat control and enough strength in his wrists to show real power. He will officially arrive this year.

Torsten’s Thoughts: I have two. One in the breakout young player mold that most people assume this question is about, and one in a vet finally getting meaningful playing time and justifying it mold (think Justin Turner last year). And sadly for me, they’re both Mets. Michael Conforto looks like the absolute real deal. He’s got that mid-prime Bobby Abreu thing going on, and I mean that in most complimentary imaginable way. If you’ve forgotten how good he was, look up his stats from the early 2000s. My breakout vet is Jacob DeGrom, which is weird because going into his third season, he’s not exactly a vet, and he’s already broken out since he was an all-star in 2015. But I think this is the year you see him take the leap to elite status. If I had to guess a Cy Young winner for this coming season and Clayton Kershaw was not an option, it would be DeGrom.

BONUS Homer Corner: What Red Sox (Shaun) and Dodgers (Torsten) prospect are you dying to see in a Spring Training game?

Shaun’s Thoughts: I really want to see Anderson Espinoza throw in a Spring Training game. He has a big fastball but has hardly thrown in America, much less above complex league ball. Seeing Yoan Moncada play has been fun, but he is their top prospect and too easy to pick. The guy who I am really interested to see how he does this spring is Mauricio Dubon. He will likely be moving back to short since Javier Guerra has been traded and can play good defense up the middle. The question is just how quickly can the bat develop?

Torsten’s Thoughts: Two. And neither are Urias. People who know way more than me universally agree that if he stays healthy he’s basically a can’t miss guy. I really want to know what all the excitement is about when it comes to Jose De Leon and Cody Bellinger, who nobody really knew anything about before last year. Depending on who you believe, De Leon’s inclusion at last year’s trade deadline in any discussions for a front line starter was a deal breaker for the Dodgers, and some are saying Bellinger is Adrian Gonzalez’s heir apparent at first base. With lofty praise such as that, whose curiosity WOULDN’T be piqued?

Welcome to the Stain’s Thoughts from the Throne. Shaun and I are well aware that we’ve been light on the content for the past year or so. Both of us being new fathers, as well as general laziness, has contributed greatly to that. That said, we do want to post more frequently, and we think we have the solution with Thoughts from the Throne. 

It’s pretty simple. We talk about sports all day long. We debate, we bicker, we agree, we wax poetic, and at the end of the day, the conversation dies and starts anew somewhere else another day. For the purposes of sharing our thoughts with you, our conversations were wasted. Well, no longer.

See, the beauty of a blog like ours is that we can share things the way we honestly feel about them. Not watered down, not catering to anyone, just our truth. So what we’re doing now, once a week or more, is taking a few questions floating around the sports universe and telling it how it is. Think of it as kind of a mail bag, like we would have if we had enough readers to generate one. 🙂

We hope you enjoy Thoughts from the Throne. Our first edition will focus on the upcoming NFL draft, with a bonus question pertaining loosely to FIFA and its lengthy tradition of corruption. 

Roberto Aguayo is considered by some to be the best kicking prospect ever. What round can you justify taking a kicker?

Shaun’s thoughts: If Al Davis was still alive and running the Oakland Raiders, I would say first round to the Raiders as he has selected a punter (Ray Guy) and kicker (Sebastian Janikowski) in the first round in years past. In a non-Al Davis world, I would say a fifth round pick might be a reach, however the new PAT rules proved to be very impactful, making kickers even more important. Now I would say a third round pick could be justified if it is a contender looking to solidify a championship roster, otherwise I still wouldn’t take one until day three.

Torsten’s thoughts: I say it a lot. When was the last time a team with a lousy kicker won a Super Bowl? I don’t think you could ever justify using a first or second rounder. That’s where you’re looking for players who have an impact on a high percentage of plays throughout the game, whereas a kicker (or punter for that matter) only impacts a few. That said, those plays lead directly to points. If I’m a team with playoff aspirations, or even already a legit contender, and have a dodgy kicking situation (I’m looking at you, Carolina, Houston, Cincinnati…), I’m starting to give it serious consideration in the third round. Just look at Super Bowl 50. Graham Gano clanked a very makeable kick with the outcome still in doubt. It didn’t ultimately affect the end result, but it could have.

Robert Nkemdiche is a freakish athlete but has serious off-field red flags. Do you see him going in the first round?

Shaun’s thoughts: Yes, so long as he doesn’t fall out of any more hotel windows. He might be the best defensive tackle prospect since Ndamukong Suh who went number two overall after a certain favorite team of a Stain writer took Sam Bradford. Without the off-field issues, Nkemdiche might be in the mix to go number one, but a team at the back end of the first round who is, again, a championship contender should definitely take a flyer on him.

Torsten’s thoughts: If I’m the GM, no. I’m not against second chances, nor am I suggesting that he isn’t worth using a second rounder on, but my confidence that his incident is an aberration rather than a habit (minus the whole falling thing) isn’t there. For my first rounder, I want a guy who won’t have his ability to make a difference on the field impacted by those pesky four-game suspensions. That said, he’s absolutely a first rounder in April. There are a few teams who would take a serious look at him but on the off chance he’s still on the board when Seattle picks, he wouldn’t get by them.  

How many quarterbacks go in round one? Where do you see them landing?

Shaun’s thoughts: Two, but I wouldn’t be shocked to see four. Despite the small hands, I still feel Goff goes number two to the Cleveland Browns. I have been a big fan of Carson Wentz for over a year now, and would love to see him go to the Cowboys. If Joey Bosa does not fall to them, I could definitely see them taking Wentz, and I would love that (although I would like the Bosa pick more and see the Cowboys get a Connor Cook or Paxton Lynch in the second round). Should the Cowboys not take Wentz, it will get really interesting to see who moves up for him as the 49ers and Rams would suddenly be in the bidding war to get him. The Christian Hackenberg-Bill O’Brien connection is real and I wouldn’t be shocked to see the Texans take him in the first round, but ultimately I don’t think it happens. I could also see the Arizona Cardinals getting their QB of the future in Lynch, but again I don’t see it happening.

Torsten’s thoughts: Two. And they both go early. I would be beyond shocked if Jared Goff or Carson Wentz was still on the board after the first five or six picks. The drop-off from those two to Paxton Lynch isn’t necessarily all that severe, but there is some very intriguing mid-round talent at the quarterback position for teams willing to develop a guy for a year or two, such as Connor Cook, Dak Prescott, or Cardale Jones. Another guy I haven’t personally watched play, but read some complimentary things about this weekend is Western Kentucky’s Brandon Doughty. Why would you reach for Lynch when a handful of other guys in his tier project to be there for you in rounds two and three?

With the FIFA presidential election complete, what will be the next corruption scandal that rocks the sports world?

Shaun’s thoughts: NFL. With all the concussion issues, poor accounting, and Goodell losing the initial court battle with Tom Brady, there will soon be something big that happens that will really impact the NFL. If I were to guess, there will be a document that comes out that proves the NFL has been falsifying medical documents when it comes to head injuries that leads to a law suit big enough that the NFL owners fire Goodell.

Torsten’s thoughts: I’ve thought for years now that the NFL had a serious gambling problem with its referees. Referees’ “performance” in 2013 and 14 had me convinced I was right, but in 2015 I started to waver. Don’t get me wrong, they didn’t suddenly become good. But the dubious calls in 2015 looked far more like general incompetence than in previous years where they looked like poorly disguised endeavors to impact the result of the game as it pertained to the Vegas lines. A large scale NFL scandal certainly wouldn’t shock me, but sadly I think it might be the NCAA. It’s well established that the NFL crapped the bed with concussions. It’s tragic to see guys in their 40s and 50s descend into mental illness and ultimately kill themselves. But now we’re starting to see it with young men in their 20s. It breaks my heart, but what I think is going to happen is some 22-year-old is going to eat the business end of a gun. They’ll find CTE in his brain, and some video will surface of him obviously having sustained a concussion but being allowed to continue playing anyway. And that will be the tip of the iceberg.

Well, on that uplifting note… thanks for reading. If you have something you’d like us to discuss in a future column, email us at thestainsports@gmail.com or tweet us @thestainsports.

I guess it’s all about perspective. For example, I played in seven leagues this year. If a crystal ball had informed me with the somewhat vague but iron-clad guarantee that I would finish no worse than third in any of my seven leagues, I would have gone on my way with a smug sense of self-satisfaction. The fact that I would stand to win only one of these leagues, however, was left out. Seven leagues. Seven top three finishes. But only one top finish? And while the odds are in my favor, not even that is guaranteed, as the one I may win is a points league that plays all 17 weeks, and while I have a lead going into the final week, nothing is ever certain. So now, having all the facts instead of just the vague promise of top three finishes across the board, I have to ask myself: Has this season been a success for me?

First, a little more about me. I consider myself, in as non-arrogant of a way as possible, the best fantasy football player in all of my leagues. This isn’t because I’m so much smarter than everyone else, or anything like that. I’ve just been playing for a very long time, and over the years I’ve gotten a pretty good handle on assessing players’ fantasy values relative to where they’re drafted, and their likelihood of success in a given week. That’s fantasy sports in a nutshell right there. Get pretty good at that one thing, and you’ve got most of the battle in hand.

Here’s the rub. While I consider myself the best player in all of my leagues, a significant number of the other players feel the same way about themselves! There’s a bit of player overlap, but not a ton. For example, Shaun, my partner here at The Stain, and I are in two leagues together. Several of our good friends, including Shaun’s wonderful soon-to-be wife, are in multiple leagues with us. But again, not a lot overlap. Out of a possible 76 or so players, about 60 are unique. Of those 60, probably half consider themselves to be top dog. That’s a ton of confidence.

That’s also the way I want it. I don’t play fantasy football (or any fantasy sport for that matter) to take candy from babies. I’m not trying to rip anyone off with ridiculous trades. I don’t want to build some insane roster of the 10 best players and just bulldoze everyone else who was left with scraps to choose from. I want the playing field to be level, and I want to have a slightly better roster thanks to astute mid and late round draft selections, and I want to win more weeks than I lose thanks to informed and intuitive line-up decisions. It’s one thing to be Kramer in a karate class with twenty 5-year-olds and come away as king of the hill, but it’s entirely another to stand at the starting line of an obstacle course with a large group of your peers and equals, and come away the champ.

So, is finishing among the top three in all of my leagues a success? Financially, I can say it is. Most of my leagues pay out for third place, and all of them do for second. But while a bit of a financial reward is nice, that’s not really why we play. A quick calculation in my head reaches a total in the neighborhood of $2,000 in prizes for winning all of my leagues. A couple grand would be a cool little bounty, but with a wife, kid on the way, and a mortgage, it’s a little bit south of the income I need to be providing. Ultimately, the real reason we play is so after we win, we can walk around like a ****ing peacock with its feathers spread and talk smack until the end of time. Yeah. So essentially, since at best I’m going to win one of seven leagues, it’s been an epic failure.

Well, not exactly. See, when you’re drafting your fantasy team, you’re not doing so with the thought, “This is the lineup I’m trotting out in the FINALS in four months!” Well, you might be, but if that’s what you’re doing, you’re in for a rude awakening come playoff time. Speaking of playoff time, that’s really what you’re drafting for. So many things can and do happen over the course of a football season that change the outlook and composition of your fantasy roster. You’re trying to prepare bye weeks, and… ok, segue.

When it comes to bye weeks, there are three prevailing philosophies. 1) Try and stagger your bye weeks so you don’t have a week where most of your top players are unavailable to you. 2) INTENTIONALLY try to have all of your top players have the same bye weeks so you’re essentially punting that week in exchange for being able to field your strongest possible line up all the other weeks. And 3) Don’t pay attention to bye weeks at all, draft the best possible player for your positions of need and cross the bye week bridge when you get to it. Personally, I’m 75% number 3, and 25% number 2. I’m zero % number one because, for right or for wrong, my brain cannot get wrapped around the concept of “let me figure out a way to field a less than optimal line up for weeks 4-11.” Can’t. Do. It. So, I pick the player I want and say heck with it. If it comes down to choosing between two players I like equally, and one of them has a bye week that matches a player at the same position I already have, I will choose that one so I can have both active for the maximum number of weeks. I don’t know if it’s right or wrong to do it this way, but it’s the way that makes the most sense to me.

Back to preparing for playoffs, in addition to bye weeks, you’re trying to create depth for flexibility, and put yourself in a position where an injury doesn’t destroy you…dammit! Ok, another segue.

Handcuffs. They’ve been ingrained as accepted fantasy strategy since the invention of the game. In the late rounds, you pick the back up to your top running back(s). That way, in the event that the top guy gets hurt, the backup seamlessly slots in. I effing hate this and almost without exception, don’t do it. I would rather try to find a player that projects to be productive without needing another player to get hurt for that to happen. And those players are indeed available in the 14^th round. All this, of course, goes out the window when the bye weeks are done. At that point, you’re adding the backups to your stars and dropping your late round flyers and other fringe players since roster flexibility is far less vital when you’re not dealing with byes anymore. And I’m also a hypocrite, because in the one league where I owned Adrian Peterson, I stashed Jerick McKinnon too. I did so against all of my instincts, and everything I believe to be good fantasy strategy, and I did it because of a combination of factors. 1) AP is still the best fantasy RB, in that you can sharpie him in for top 3 stats at his position for the season before it even starts, unless 2) he gets hurt, which as a 30 years old back in the NFL, is an ever increasing possibility, and 3) when the end comes for RBs, it often comes quickly and it isn’t pretty. Also, 4) after the awful events of last year involving his kids, you never know what else might surface that could get him suspended, and 5) his leash is not long for any shenanigans. Lastly, 6) because of Minnesota’s offensive system and style, their running game can be successful with the back-up.

Here’s why I still hate it and feel the need to shower every time I tell people I hate handcuffing, yet the dirty secret of having McKinnon on my bench all year rattles in my brain. Do you really know who the handcuff is? In AP’s case, is it really McKinnon, or is it Matt Asiata? You’re not only using a valuable roster spot on a player who in a best-case scenario never sees the field, you don’t even really know if he’s the right leech to be sucking up that roster spot. Ask 100 fantasy “experts” before the season started who Jamal Charles’ back up was, they probably would all have told you Knile Davis. Who the eff is Charcandrick West anyway? And who the double eff is Spencer Ware!?  Let’s foreshadow to your 2016 fantasy football draft for a moment. Let’s assume you got a high pick and ended up choosing Rams’ stud RB Todd Gurley. We’re reaching the later rounds of your draft and your starters are pretty much all accounted for. You’re now in a spot where you are starting to accumulate depth, take flyers on boom or bust guys, or if you’re so inclined, go a little earlier than recommended to secure a top defense. (note: conventional wisdom dictates that you wait until your last two picks to get your kicker and defense. In ESPN standard scoring leagues, that’s all fine and good. But of my 7 leagues, 3 had some form of modified scoring in place that placed increased value on defenses. Always check that stuff before your draft.) Or, do you snag Tre Mason, Gurley’s presumed back up should he get hurt? Maybe in a 14 or 16 team league, where the waiver wire is a barren wasteland of suck, you do. But in a regular old 10 or 12 team league, there are still going to be guys available to draft that don’t require an injury to the starter to be able to provide you with some production. PPR darlings like Bilal Powell and Theo Riddick are a couple that come to mind. Anyway, let’s say the worst happens and Gurley goes down for an extended period with an injury. You’re not worried because you have Mason. After all, he looked capable as a rookie. Then, on the first drive of his first game as the starter, he coughs up a fumble in the red zone. And just like that, the Benny Cunningham era begins. Wait, maybe you also had Cunningham on your roster! Except, that while being a pretty good football player in general, what with special teams contributions and all, he’s just not a viable fantasy guy. So now the Rams have some weird hybrid thing going on with a combination of Cunningham, Tavon Austin, and perhaps Mason gets another chance in the backfield, but are you starting any of them now? Exactly. Meanwhile, you probably could have had Darren Sproles this whole time, or LeGarrette Blount.

Here’s another example. Say you end up with Marshawn Lynch. You lucky dog, you! Regardless of format, Lynch is an amazing fantasy back. Hedging your bets, you make sure you also get Fred Jackson and/or Christine Michael. After all, Beastmode has taken AND given a lot of hits. Who the eff is Thomas Rawls?

The examples don’t end there, but in case you printed this article so you could read it on the toilet, I don’t want you to get hemorrhoids so we’re going to keep moving.

We’re trying to build a roster that will get us into the playoffs, where anything can happen. And I was 7 for 7 there. So huge success? Gosh, who the heck knows at this point. Well, let’s look at what went right for me and what went wrong.

 

What went right:

 

First and foremost, I must say that contrary to what normally happens, I was very fortunate on the injury front this season. I had one league in which I lost Andrew Luck, Jamal Charles, Steve Smith Sr., and Julian Edelman to injury, and several others where I lost one or two of those guys, but by in large, I was lucky. Even on that one team where I lost everyone and their mother, I was able to “make do” replacing Luck with a combination of Ryan Fitzpatrick and Kirk Cousins. Receiver was fortunately deep and I got lucky with Doug Baldwin, and at running back, well, you’ll see in the next section who I got a little lucky with.

Also, when I like a player, I try to get him on all of my teams. Some players who play in as many as or even more leagues than I do try to avoid having the same player on every team so if they get hurt or something goes disastrously wrong, it doesn’t scuttle every single team you have. Me, I go the other way. If I like someone, I’m betting on him to go big and help all my teams. Quite often, I’m right. This season it was DeVante Freeman (6 of 7 teams), DeAndre Hopkins (5 of 7 teams), Delanie Walker (4 of 7) ((you may be seeing a trend here, I apparently like guys whose names start with De…)), Eric Decker, Carson Palmer, Tyler Eifert (3 of 7 each) and more.

And then there’s when I don’t like a player. I will simply not draft him. Almost regardless of what round we’re in. If we’re being realistic, even if you don’t like LeSean McCoy but he’s somehow available late, you’re going to take him. But for the most part, that doesn’t happen. And I was rewarded immensely for having the following players on exactly zero of my teams: DeMarco Murray, Peyton Manning (I did pick him up on waivers to make one start for me in one league), Calvin Johnson (not terrible, but for where he gets picked?), Alfred Morris, Eddie Lacy, DeVante Adams (another guy I snagged on waivers for a week or two when desperate times arose), and Ryan Tannehill.

 

What went wrong:

 

Sometimes, I’m just wrong about a guy. This season it was Jordan Matthews and Melvin Gordon who disappointed me the most. I had those guys on multiple teams. I would have had Carlos Hyde on all of my teams had others not shared my enthusiasm for him. And perhaps the most epic example ever of me being wrong about a guy was last year when I went early on Cordarelle Patterson in every one of my leagues, and compounded my error by bragging after his huge week 1 performance against my Rams. Oh, did I ever sh*t the bed there. It happens.

This year like every year, I also avoided some guys like the plague that I could easily have had, and would have benefitted from. Jordan Reed, Cam Newton and Blake Bortles (seriously, I got SO lucky QB was deep this year…), Darren McFadden, and probably a few other guys. One notable star who I had on zero of my teams was Odell Beckham Jr. To be fair, this isn’t because I didn’t think he was going to be good. It’s just that people were using first rounders and high second rounders on him that I felt would be better spent on guys like AJ Green, Julio Jones, the aforementioned DeAndre Hopkins, and DeMaryius Thomas. This incorrect thought on my part didn’t kill me as all of those guys were good this year, but sheesh. And again, to be fair to myself, I also didn’t have Dez Bryant on any of my teams; also not because I don’t think he’s good, but because I think he kept getting picked earlier than I had him slotted.

Then there’s the stuff that happens that really has you shaking your head. I lost one final to a guy who only squeaked into the playoffs by winning the last regular season week by 4.5 points because his opponent had Andy Dalton who got hurt. In the finals, he rolled out the Blake Bortles / Allen Robinson stack, and also Tim Hightower (whom he was awarded over me due to waiver priority). Nothing I can do about that. I lost other playoff matches where nearly everyone on my opponent’s roster seemed to be going against catastrophically bad defenses like New Orleans, Cleveland, and San Diego, while my poor players were travelling to Seattle, Kansas City, and Carolina. Hey, you can call that bad planning on my part if you want, but I will freely admit that I don’t look to see who a player’s week 14 and 15 opponents are before I draft them. Shame on me I guess. And then I lost one final because the team I was able to trot out there simply wasn’t that great. And then I picked the wrong week to sit Kirk Cousins, the wrong week to play Denard Robinson, and watched the combination of Brandin Cooks and the Arizona D lay ruin to my dreams on my opponent’s behalf.

Boy, for a guy who is trying to convince you (and himself) that this season was a success, my section on what went wrong sure looks longer than the one on what went right.

So there you have it; a successful fantasy season, odd as it is, in a nutshell. Got any good fantasy stories from this season to share with us? Hit us up on Twitter.

Ever since Ned Colletti first took over as General Manager of the Dodgers, he’s been subjected to varying degrees of ridicule. Dodger fans have acquired a reputation as a Starbucks-sipping bunch that show up in the third inning, leave in the seventh, and are more consumed with taking selfies with the field in the background than what’s actually happening on said field. While there’s an element of truth to that, more than three million fans a year keep the turnstiles at Dodger Stadium turning, and after not seeing a World Series appearance, let alone a win since 1988, they’ve become a demanding bunch. Especially in the social media era where every misstep can be instantly reported to the masses, each successive season without hardware has added fuel to the fire. As the supposed architect of the roster, Colletti has been the target of much vitriol and blame. Others have shared it, (see: Mattingly, Don) but there’s no arguing who has gotten lion’s share.

Why He Deserves (Some of) It: Let’s be honest. He wasn’t a very good GM. Yes, this article is intended to convey some sympathy for the man, but it’s also intended to be accurate. Jason Schmidt. Andruw Jones. Brandon League. Those are just a few of the players signed to laughably bad multi-year deals under Colletti’s stewardship. Moreover, conventional baseball wisdom is that it takes far more than just the 25 man roster to make it through a successful season – “It takes 40,” is a semi-popular refrain. Yet ever short-sighted, Colletti disproportionately focused on the front half of only the first 25. In a fantasy world where nobody ever gets hurt or worn down during the 162 game grind, that could potentially work. Reality, however, is a different story. People do get hurt, and when the next guy is a sub-replacement level player who is expected to step in for a serviceable major leaguer, the result is never going to be good. Then, there’s the man himself. He just comes off as a meat head. He may be smart, he may be dumb, but appearances are what matter where public opinion is concerned, and he does himself zero favors in this department.

The Book: It’s called The Best Team Money Can Buy, by Molly Knight. It’s a well-crafted book, and Knight is a fabulous story teller who knows her baseball, all the way from game play to the business side of it. But the picture it paints of Colletti is remarkably one-sided. And as people are prone to do when they read something from a source who has acquired some accolades along the way, they treat it as gospel. So thanks to the passage where Colletti allegedly cursed out a staff member for the perception that he was undercut in an attempt to acquire reliever Joaquin Benoit from the Padres, everyone who has read the book is quick to tell you what an a-hole Colletti is. They’ll also throw in that shortly after, Benoit reported shoulder pain and threw only a few innings the remainder of the way, conveniently leaving out that he recovered well and had an elite-by-any-standard 2015 season. I’m not going to accuse anyone of making anything up to sell a book. Colletti may very well have cursed at a staff member. But he also may not have. There are passages in the book that sound odd. For example, Andre Ethier was quoted as saying “That won’t help me in arbitration,” after unselfishly moving a runner from second to third with a grounder to the right side of the infield. Did he say that? Maybe. But hadn’t he already signed his six year, $85 million dollar contract at that point, rendering arbitration irrelevant? My point is, skepticism is healthy. While Knight could have had no way of knowing that Andrew Friedman and Farhan Zaidi were going to take over when she started writing the book, the did join the Dodgers before the release date, so the opportunities to make last minute edits were still there. Again, it’s a good book and worth reading, but to just assume there isn’t a whiff of agenda anywhere in it is to be too trusting.

The Bloggers: Oh, the bloggers. Yes, there’s an element of the pot calling the kettle black here. That said, we bloggers are bloggers because we have opinions, Internet access, Twitter accounts, and a lucky few of us even have some loyal readers and followers. What many of us don’t have is an earthly clue of what we’re talking about. You can’t read one Fangraphs article and become an expert on sabermetrics any more than you can read one book on economics and rival Ben Bernanke. But that doesn’t stop us. Dodger bloggers in particular, and I’m not going to call anyone out by name here, but you know who you are, are particularly bad about this. Current analytics has one of catcher Yasmani Grandal’s strong suits being pitch framing. Suddenly, every pitch called a strike when Grandal is behind the plate is a result of genius framing. “Grandal is helping his pitcher out left and right!” one hopelessly overenthusiastic tweet from early in the season read. The pitcher? That was Clayton Kershaw, he of the three Cy Young awards in four years, the last two with AJ Ellis as his primary catcher, he of the hopelessly bad framing ability. Nobody is disputing that the ability to be a good pitch receiver has value, but it’s apparently much easier to hop on the bandwagon of a trendy metric and throw a bunch of gasoline on the fire than it is to ask questions about it, like for example, “do umpires compensate when a reputationally good framer is catching?” or “is a framed strike one weighted differently than a framed strike three?” or “how can Yadier Molina suddenly be an awful framer after being excellent just one season ago?” Again, not saying it isn’t valuable. Just saying it might be worth being a little more analytical when talking about analytics. 

Here’s what else the (we?) bloggers are responsible for. I was talking about the Dodgers and their roster with an acquaintance from the billiards league I play in shortly after they were eliminated by the Mets. Neither of us had consumed a drop of alcohol at this point, so it wasn’t your usual pool hall conversation. That said, the topic shifted to Colletti versus the “geniuses,” and suddenly the floodgates opened. According to this fellow (whom I like personally, and consider to be generally intelligent and insightful – we’ll call him Brandon because…well, that’s his name.), all of the Dodgers failures this year were a direct result of Colletti’s utter idiocy when compiling the Dodgers’ roster for the last 8 years. He correctly identified about a dozen moves made by Colletti that ranged from calamitously bad to mildly unfortunate, which was fine by me. But any time I brought up a recent move that worked out well for the Dodgers (Hyun Jin Ryu, the Adrian Gonzalez blockbuster, Zack Greinke, etc.), he said, “Those are all Stan Kasten!!! Colletti had nothing to do with those.” Whether that’s accurate or not (I don’t believe it is), you can’t assign blame when things go wrong but divert credit when they go right. If Kasten truly gets the credit for every personnel move that went right since he became team president, then he deserves the blame for not stopping Colletti from making the moves that went wrong. Plain and simple. So when I asked him why he felt this way, he told me to read a particular article by a particular blogger who I regard to be…well, an @$$hole. He’s not a complete moron, and does offer the occasional astute analysis, but he’s prone to the uninformed rant, and if questioned, makes it personal. Yet, in the Twitter era, this is where people get their information. 

The Successors: Ah yes, the “geniuses.” The twosome who were going to transform the Dodgers into a perennial powerhouse by forsaking traditional scouting methods in favor of spreadsheets and algorithms. That, believe it or not, is not me indicting them. If it works out, it looks great. If it doesn’t, however, it begs questions. Here’s the thing with Friedman and Zaidi, they’re a bit tough to read. They can come off as personable and even a little self-deprecating at times, embracing their geek labels with a good natured and affable charm. And then, in the next breath, they can come off as utterly smug and condescending, like you’re not worth an explanation because you wouldn’t understand their genius anyway. Well, let’s take a look at how the geniuses did. Here are the guys they got.

Howie Kendrick – Well, let’s start off with a win for them. Nobody can argue against the qualities of the dependable keystone, who turned in a nice campaign for the Dodgers, both on offense and defense. It is worth noting, however, it cost them Dee Gordon, who is many years younger, many dollars cheaper, and had a spectacularly good season for a bad Miami Marlins team. 

Brandon McCarthy – Wow. As brainless of an signing as there has been since the invention of free agency, this one went predictably south and fast. McCarthy has never lacked for talent, but for the first time in a decade-long professional career, he managed to stay healthy for a full season and parlayed it into a four year deal with the Dodgers. After just four starts, he was done for 12-18 months with Tommy John surgery. It can be argued that elbow injuries can’t be predicted, it can also be argued that the elbow injury merely preempted him from inevitably hurting something else as the season went on. This was a firable mistake. (no, they shouldn’t really be fired. Yet. They deserve more than one year to prove their acumen.)

Brett Anderson – Basically a left-handed version of McCarthy, this one was a win. Why? They only gave him one year, and he managed to stay mostly healthy. They needed him to pitch at a mid-rotation level and he did that, and arguably more before crapping the sheets in his lone post season start.

Jimmy Rollins – Veteran leadership, veteran schmeedership. No position player on the Dodgers was worse, and it can be reasonably argued that no position player across the National League was more hurtful to his team. He was woeful on offense despite double digit home runs, and abysmal on defense. He didn’t make a ton of errors, but anything hit farther than a foot to either side of him was practically a guaranteed hit. What makes this signing worse is that Rollins was already terrible last season for Philadelphia and 36 year olds in decline don’t often rebound.

Yasmani Grandal – The true conundrum, Grandal is a sabermetric darling. He has some pop, draws walks, and is an excellent pitch framer. But to watch him play paints a different picture. He’s lousy at containing the running game, can’t block pitches in the dirt, allows way too many passed balls, and that’s just defensively. Useful only as a platoon player (something Andre Ethier gets constantly lambasted for by detractors), Grandal is only useful offensively when hitting left-handed. And even then, he finished the season hitting a woeful .067 down the stretch. Yes, he’s young, and can improve, but he better. Because to get him, the Dodgers paid the Padres (!!!) to take Matt Kemp and his contract. Kemp may be a nuclear reactor leak defensively, but in an era where right handed power is precious, he still hit more than 20 home runs while playing in the spacious expanses of PetCo Park. 

Mike Bolsinger – I don’t care what anyone says, if signing McCarthy was a firable offense, this is the signing that gets them a reprieve. Without Bolsinger’s mid-season performances, this team doesn’t make the playoffs. He faded badly down the stretch, but he was nothing less than a season-savor for the Dodgers. And he cost them next to nothing. 

Mat Latos – The less said about this one, the better I think. I will admit that once all the top starters (Hamels, Cueto, Price, and company) had been moved, I thought Latos was a nice consolation prize. Wow, was I wrong. Even though his first appearance was statistically solid, it was clear he has little left in the tank. It speaks to the value of actually watching someone pitch before you trade for them. It’s worth noting that he didn’t cost them any prospects of note to acquire, but you can’t tout the virtues of “organizational depth” when getting a guy like Joe Weiland (in the Grandal trade) and then trade three minor league pitchers for one washed up big leaguer. 

Alex Wood – Marginally more successful than Latos, Wood offers intrigue. He’s young, left-handed, and a fierce competitor. He’s also already had one TJ surgery, has a funky delivery, and an alarming downward trend in fastball velocity the last two years. He had a couple of nice starts and also a couple of worrisome implosions, including in relief in game 3 of the NLDS. The jury is still out on this one, but it’s worth mentioning he cost Cuban third base prospect Hector Olivera.

Luis Avilan – Acquired in the same trade as Wood, he’s a solid left-handed middle relief / LOOGY. He doesn’t inspire confidence when subjected to the eye test, but it would be unfair not to note he was among the league leaders in scoreless appearances, and retired Curtis Granderson with runners on and the season on the line in the NLDS. 

Kike Hernandez – Hernandez justified his acquisition by inventing the rally banana alone. Even if he never got a hit. Which he did quite a bit of. He appeared overmatched in the playoffs, but Jacob DeGrom and company can do that to hitters. He has a bright future. 

Joel Peralta – An interesting acquisition, for sure. His bad appearances outweighed his good ones, and he cost the Dodgers Jose Dominguez, a young righty with a 100 mph fastball to get. Dominguez has been DFA’d by Tampa Bay, so it can be argued Peralta didn’t cost anything, but guys who throw 100 don’t grow on trees (unless the orchard belongs to the Mets) so it’s a curious move if nothing else. 

Chris Hatcher – From bullpen dumpster fire to late inning relief ace down the stretch, nobody improved as the season went on more than Hatcher. I’ll admit, I openly sobbed most times he entered a game for the first three months of the season, and then openly bitched whenever Mattingly went to Pedro Baez instead of Hatcher in a clutch situation down the stretch. I know I’m a hypocrite. I don’t even care, bro. Do you even lift?

The verdict? Well, the geniuses did enough to make their mark on the big league roster, didn’t they? But what kind of a mark was it? A gold seal, or a giant sh*t stain? Or somewhere in between. 

Well, you’d be hard pressed to find someone in that group who had the impact of a Justin Turner, Adrian Gonzalez, Clayton Kershaw, Zack Greinke, or Kenley Jansen this year. Even erstwhile contributors like Andre Ethier, JP Howell and Scott Van Slyke had more of an impact than some of those guys. What do they all have in common? They joined the squad on Colletti’s watch. 

It’s human nature to want to point fingers when something goes wrong. Just remember, one finger is often not enough to do the pointing.