There are a lot of bracket’s out there to predict what will happen in this World Cup, we at The Stain used Bovada’s bracket as it was the cleanest and quickest fillable bracket we found this year. So, here are Torsten and Shaun’s predictions as to how the World Cup will play out!
The United States Mens’ National Team roster for the World Cup will be revealed on November 9th, so instead of purely complaining about Gregg Berhalter’s roster decisions after the fact, I will put out my ideal 26-man roster ahead of time. This is not in any way a prediction, as we all know Tim Ream won’t make the roster despite being the captain of a team in the middle of the Premier League table, and this roster doesn’t include any of GGG’s inexplicable infatuation with Cristian Roldan, Paul Arriola, and Aaron Long. So, who do I have on the roster? Let’s start with my starting 11, and I will keep to the current USA formation of 4-3-3.
Attack:
ST: Ricardo Pepi, Groningen
LW: Christian Pulisic, Chelsea
RW: Giovanni Reyna, Borussia Dortmund
Pulisic is the best player the USMNT has, while Reyna might be the single most talented player to ever put on the United States kit, but injuries have already been a real concern and he won’t even turn 20 until after the rooster announcement. At the top of the attack I put in Ricardo Pepi as the winner of the position most up in the air for me, more on that later.
Midfield:
LCM: Weston McKennie, Juventus
RCM: Yunus Musah, Valencia
CDM: Tyler Adams, Leeds United
McKennie recently went down with a thigh injury but, by all reports, is expected to be 100% come November 21 when the USA take on Wales. Musah oozes talent but has been a bit inconsistent with Valencia and has yet to really show his talents translate to the USMNT, but I still have faith. There is no single player more irreplaceable to this squad than Tyler Adams as there simply is nobody in the system that does what he does. He isn’t the best player on the squad, but absolutely the most irreplaceable.
Defense:
LB: Antonee Robinson, Fulham
LCB: Tim Ream, Fulham
RCB: Walker Zimmerman, Nashville SC
RB: Sergiño Dest, AC Milan
Jedi is the guy left back, and he would be a top LB at an elite club if he could simply cross better. His runs from the the back are deadly, they just all seem to die on his crosses at the end. Despite that, he puts pressure on the opposing defense while defending well himself. Yes, Ream is 35 and hasn’t put on the stars and stripes in more than a year, but he wears the armband for Fulham, and does so standing next to Jedi meaning no player has more chemistry and can predict the runs better than he. Zimmerman has been a steady contributor even if his last couple appearances for the national team were a bit underwhelming. Dest has bounced around after plenty of transfer speculation away from FC Barcelona this summer, he landed a loan deal to Milan, where he has barely seen time. That said, he is the best offensive wing back and is a no-brainer to get the start.
GK: Matt Turner, Arsenal
There has long been plenty of back and forth as to who deserves the #1 for GGG, but that seems to have been put to rest with Turner now playing for Arsenal and looking solid there. He seems to be the clear cut man at keeper for this squad. That said, he has been out the past two matches, a return Thursday would be a very good sign.
There are going to be 15 available substitutes this year, so here are my backups who should be on the roster and what position(s) they can play.
Attack:
LW/RW: Brenden Aaronson, Leeds United
RW: Timothy Weah, Lille
ST: Jesus Ferreira, FC Dallas
ST: Jordan Pefok Siebatcheu, Union Berlin
Aaronson is a guy I have a love/hate relationship with as I absolutely love his motor, but he feels so unpolished. There is growing sentiment for him to be a starter, but his energy, off the bench, in a climate like Qatar, that could be a genuine game changer. Weah is another guy who one could easily argue to start, and I wouldn’t be against it if Reyna moves back to midfield in place of Musah and Weah gets the start up top, but I can’t trust Reyna to go 90 in every match for an entire tournament. Having Weah available as a sub will be massive. Ferreira will likely be the 9 for this squad, but he plays more like a 10, and you can’t 0-0 draw your way into the knockout round, so I like him better off the bench, especially if the USA has a lead. Pefok has the second most combination of goals and assists on the team currently atop the Bundesliga, need I say more?
Midfield:
CM: Luca de la Torre, Celta Vigo
CM: Malik Tillman, Rangers
CM/LW/RW: Djordje Mihailovic, CF Montreal
CDM: Kellyn Acosta, LAFC
There is some availability concern for LDLT as it was announced he has a muscle tear and is out three weeks, that was 25 days before the Wales match, but I am choosing to be optimistic. If you want to feel good about what Tillman can bring, watch him weave through the Motherwell defense. If you don’t want to feel good about him, go watch all his UCL appearances outside of the one against Napoli. Mihailovic will be heading to AZ come January 1, and he is not in the MLS camp which means he will not be on the club, but he had the best MLS season of any American not named Brandon Vasquez. Accosta is probably the single best free kick taker on the squad, so he is an excellent option as a late sub with a lead as he is defensive focused in midfield, but also in need of a goal as he seems to be the only player capable of getting good ball into the box on a set piece.
Defense:
LB/RB: Joe Scally, Borussia Monchengladbach
RB: DeAndre Yedlin, Inter Miami
RB/CB: Reggie Cannon, Boavista
CB: Cameron Carter-Vickers, Celtic
CB: Chris Richards, Crystal Palace
Scally might be the second best overall wing back, better than Jedi, but he can play both the left and right so he is an easy option to be one of the primary subs in this tournament. Yedlin will likely be the only player to make GGG’s final roster with any World Cup experience and technically would be here too, although Ream was on the roster in 2014, he did not get on the pitch at any point. Bringing that experience is huge, plus he has as feisty an approach as anyone, which certainly has its place. Cannon has looked good for Boavista, and has even seen minimal time at center back, so he brings versatility to the back line the squad really lacks. CCV and Chris Richards are both guys who have looked solid and could easily be the starting CB duo in a position group that is as interchangeable as there is outside of the 9 on this roster. Richards is still a week or so away from training, so he is yet another player with injury concerns as the roster deadline approaches.
Goalkeeper:
Ethan Horvath, Luton Town
Zack Steffen, Middlesbrough
Horvath has six clean sheets in the Championship while Steffen has been busy in goal with a questionable defense in front of him in Middlesbrough. Steffen was once the answer as the future GK for the club, but he very well may be number three at the end of the month.
This is a roster I don’t think struggles to get out of the group and, depending on draw, could get a win or two in the knockout round. It is also a team who has struggled to but the ball in the back of the net, so that 0-0 draw through the group mentioned earlier is also within the realm of possibilities and missing the knockout round is possible. Overall, the expectation is getting out of the group, with winning the group the likely target and, frankly, I wouldn’t be satisfied without a trip to the quarterfinals.
It’s a burning question. We probably know the answer to who will start for the U.S. Coach Gregg Berhalter surely has his favorites, his doghouse residents, and a shitty system he’s married to that is a lousy match for the skillsets of his player pool. But if the choice was made on things like merit, form, common sense and win probability added, that lineup would look different and everyone knows it. So who would they be?
First, some housekeeping. Why Berhalter doesn’t do this is beyond me but in order to maximize the output of what’s available, you have to play a formation that is a modified 5-3-1-1 or 5-3-2, with two wing backs making up 40% of the defense, with the remaining 60% comprised of three center-backs. More on this in a moment.
GK: Ethan Horvath, Luton Town
Berhalter seems committed to Matt Turner, who barely plays at Arsenal, and when healthy, Zack Steffen. Steffen is a decent keeper, but blunder-prone which you simply can’t have on the big stage. Turner is an ok shot-stopper but has poor hand position and is consistently late to set his feet. Horvath is unspectacular, and while he may not steal any games for you, he certainly won’t give them away either.
Also in consideration: No one. The goalie pool is shallow. Sean Johnson is ok, Gaga Slonina has promise but is barely 18. It’s Horvath or bust.
LCB: Cameron Carter-Vickers, Celtic
We’re assuming a return to health for CCV here, but he was clearly the best defender in Scotland last year, and is a set it and forget it central defender. As well-rounded as defenders come, he’s a must start if fit.
CB: Walker Zimmerman, Nashville SC
Everpresent in the center of the U.S. defense, he’s the glue that holds the back line together. Formidable in the air and cerebral on the turf, he’s a throwback to the big center backs of old.
RCB: Tim Ream, Fulham
Now, this won’t happen, but it should. Yes, he’s old, but that hasn’t stopped him from being virtually ever-present for Fulham this season in the Premier League. You may or may not have noticed, but the steady veteran’s consistent performances have been a huge contributor to Fulham’s surprisingly solid start to the season.
Other Options: Chris Robinson is just about International quality. But the drop off to Erik Palmer Brown is steep. Precipitously steep. Best to run with these three as far as they’ll take you.
LWB: Jedi Robinson, Fulham
Playing three center backs can really allow the U.S. to take full advantage of Robinson’s attacking prowess. His speed and recovery make him an adequate defender but the U.S. is at its most threatening when he and (spoiler alert) Sergino Dest are marauding up their respective wings. Robinson’s final ball is abysmal, but he still causes all kinds of havoc.
RWB: Sergino Dest, AC Milan
He needs to get healthy, and he needs to get game time, but hes a dynamic threat on the wing. Like Jedi on the other wing, playing three center backs allows Dest to attack more freely, and he’s always a threat when running with the ball at his feet.
Other Options: None, really. Joe Scally is a nice talent, and DeAndre Yedlin a dependable veteran on a very young team, but neither move the attack on either wing like Jedi and Dest.
DCM: Tyler Adams, Leeds
His start in the EPL has been inauspicious but he’s a no nonsense, tough tackling stud in holding midfield. If he recaptures his Bundesliga form, he’s as good of a player as the U.S. have. If healthy, or not on yellow card accumulation suspension, he’s a fixture.
LCM: Christian Pulisic, Chelsea
The USMNT’s most recognizable star is a polarizing figure in soccer circles, but he’s a one-of-a-kind in the U.S. player pool. He disappears for long stretches on occasion but he’s never much more than an opportunity away from a big goal.
RCM: Tim Weah, Lille
Weah is a tough player to describe. He’s skillful and dynamic, but what you really need him for is his explosiveness. Capable of putting the defense consistently on its heels, he’s a threat to score for a team that doesn’t have a ton of pure scoring threats.
Other Options: Luca De La Torre and Yunus Musah are both talented centrally oriented midfielders but are probably best left on the subs bench if all other options are fit.
AM: Gio Reyna, Borussia Dortmund
We’re not just assuming health here, we’re praying for it. Fit, he’s the team’s best player. Nobody knows it because he’s spent so much time injured but the kid is a damn magician with the ball. The finishing product could be better but he draws so much attention in the attack, he’s an assist waiting to happen. His presence might make the difference between a group stage exit and a round of 16 appearance.
Other Options: Brendan Aaronson is a favorite of Berhalter, which of course he is because… never mind. Anyway, I’ve come around a little on Aaronson. I used to scream bloody murder at his inability to keep formation and reckless runs into no man’s land. Now, I appreciate his relentless hustle and willingness to chase even lost causes, even if his finishing is dreadful. If he could learn to run at defenders with the ball at his feet, he’d win a penalty every other game.
ST: Jordan Pefok, Union Berlin
Probably the only true center forward the U.S. has. Pefok is in nice form for the German upstarts, and while he’s prone to blasting sitters into row zed, he’s also a consistent threat to get behind the defense. Scoring for the U.S. will take the whole village, but Pefok is the most in form striker in the pool.
Other Options: Ricardo Pepi is off to a nice start in Groningen, but he’ll have to show it for more than a few games in order to head the pecking order at striker again.
Well, how did we do? Who would you start if the decision was yours? Let us know on Twitter @thestainsports. Thanks for reading.
As we get The Stain back running with more consistent content, why not try to make our readers some money. Here is my FanDuel and DraftKings lineups for today:
These are tournament plays going with a couple flyers. Cowboys D should get plenty of sacks against the Rams, Zappe is facing possibly the worst D in football. Teddy B I expect to put up massive numbers too.
Over the last three decades, the United States mens team has cycled through various weaknesses that have kept it on the outside looking in at the world’s elite programs. But goalie has always been a strength. The steady hands of fellas like Casey Keller, Brad Friedl, Tim Howard, Brad Guzan, and even the few cameos made by MLS stalwarts like Nick Rimando always gave the team at least a fighting chance to hang with the powerhouses.
And now, with more and more players making the leap to, and playing significant minutes in Europe, the U.S. is in theory supposed to have its best crop of goalkeepers yet. The reality, however, is that they don’t. Even though Zack Steffen and Matt Turner are on the books at two of England’s biggest clubs, they have given fans, let alone coach Greg Berhalter, no reason for confidence. Third choice and Gold Cup hero Ethan Horvath would seem to be an option, but he can’t unseat Brice Samba at Nottingham Forest. The youth ranks include highly rated Gaga Slonina, but Poland came calling and he may very soon no longer be an option.
Oddest of all, this is rapidly becoming a five alarm fire, and nobody is talking about it. They really need to be.
Let’s start with Steffen. In his most recent high profile game, he dilly dallied in possession, allowing Sadio Mane to disposess him directly into the net, essentially sealing Manchester City’s FA Cup semifinal defeat. Now, everyone is human and even the world’s finest keepers like Jan Oblak and Thibault Courtois have had moments they’d rather forget. But it’s becoming a pattern with Steffen in big games. In last year’s FA Cup he horribly misjudged a through ball, allowing Chelsea’s Timo Werner and Hakim Zayech to combine for an easy winning goal. In the World Cup qualifying loss to Costa Rica, in which the U.S. sealed their ticket to Qatar anyway, he was caught on his heels with his hands at his sides on Juan Pablo Vargas’ well-taken header to open the scoring. While it would have taken a solid save to keep the ball out of the net, a goalie has to at least be in position to try, which Steffen wasn’t. The sting was worsened by Costa Rica’s Keylor Navas making a string of excellent reaction saves to keep the game scoreless up to that point.
The U.S. was still controlling possession and had the lion’s share of the attacking chances but the game was then put out of reach after another Steffen error, this one a brutal blunder in which he failed to hang on to a harmless cross, leading to a scramble and an ultimately easy tap in for Costa Rica to double their lead.
If Matt Turner has been better, it’s only by a slim margin. When the U.S. traveled to Canada in World Cup qualifying, a match they should have had designs on winning considering the absence of the world class Alphonso Davies, it was Turner who failed to get set on Cyle Larin’s opening goal. While Larin’s shot was well-hit, the replay showed Turner would get his fingertips on the ball despite not being able to muster any kind of a dive. An awful error? No, but once again, the pain was made worse later on in the game when Canada’s Milan Borjan produced a beautiful one-handed parry of Weston McKennie’s goalbound header to preserve Canada’s lead. Lev Yashin himself could have done nothing to prevent Canada’s stoppage time 2-0 strike, but it was nearly academic anyway as a few minutes earlier, Turner nearly gifted a goal to the Canadians by fumbling a completely harmless shot right into the path of an oncoming striker, who somehow contrived to smash the ball right back into Turner.
The U.S. is getting better, no doubt. But if they want to progress farther than they ever have come Qatar, they will need their goalkeeping to steal them a game, as Tim Howard so nearly did against Belgium in 2014, but for Chris Wondolowski to blast over when scoring seemed easier. Right now, their goalkeeping looks more likely to lose them a game than win them one.
There isn’t an easy solution. There’s no explanation why Horvath hasn’t gotten a shot at it. Chituru Odunze and the aforementioned Slonina may very well be too young for the big stage. It’s possible an MLS veteran like Sean Johnson or Bill Hamid could step up, but neither looks great so far this season.
One thing there is as a silver lining is time. The games don’t start tomorrow. Someone can step to the forefront and stand out. But step one is for Berhalter and company to admit there’s a problem. And they haven’t, and likely won’t.
Got a solution we haven’t thought of? Let us know in the comments. Thanks for reading.
The World Cup draw is officially behind us, the United States is in the World Cup after missing out four years ago, so how did the USA do in terms of the draw?
There was some hope the USA would be drawn in group G or H so they could open their run on Thanksgiving Day, but they land in Group B, which is the second best schedule hopes as they will begin their run on the first day of the World Cup and get game two on a day most Americans will have off, the day after Thanksgiving.
One tough part of the draw is landing with the European Playoff, so the final member of the group won’t be decided until June.
That first match on Monday, November 21 will be against one of Wales, Scotland, and Ukraine. The most favorable matchup of the group is Scotland, Wales is the best team with the best player in Gareth Bale, but Ukraine could be an interesting opponent as the world (sans-Russia) will be pulling for them given what the country is going through. Realistically, this should be three points for the USA, although a matchup with Wales and Gareth Bale could be problematic.
Match two will be Friday, November 25th against arguably the biggest rival outside of CONCACAF the USA has, England. The last time they faced each other in the World Cup English keeper Robert Green botched a save on an easy shot from Clint Dempsey and the match ended level 1-1. This has all the makings for an incredible watch, as England will certainly be favored, but are by no means a lock to beat the USA. The hope in this match would be for the Americans to lock in a point, but three points are possible as is zero. This will likely be the match that determines the group winner.
The final match of the group stage may be the most favorable matchup in Iran, although history isn’t favorable. The USA and Iran have only faced off twice before, drawing a friendly in 2000 and losing 2-1 in the 1998 World Cup. That said, the best player on Iran is arguably Sardar Azmoun, the forward who recently moved to Bayern Leverkusen. Azmoun has scored 40 goals in 62 appearances for his country and scored 52 goals in 79 matches for Zenit Saint Petersburg. He will be the main focus, but three points for the USA is a must in this matchup.
Assuming USA get through the group stage, being in Group B is a big benefit, as the first knockout round is against Group A, possibly the weakest group in the 2022 World Cup. Qatar and Ecuador will open the World Cup, but neither are truly expected to get out of the group. Therefore the knockout round matchup will most likely be against Senegal or the Netherlands depending on seeding.
Winning Group B is not the most likely outcome, runners-up is most likely, but winning the group could be huge for the USA. Chances are Netherlands wins Group A, a matchup the USA would like to avoid as Senegal would be the preferred matchup. Yes, Sadio Mane can single-handedly end anyone’s run in December, but the rest of the roster simply doesn’t have the depth of Netherlands.
The expectations on USA should be high given the draw. Not getting out of the group stage will be seen as absolute failure by the club. From there any success in the knockout stages will be positive, although a loss in the first knockout game won’t be a negative for the club. That said, a trip to the quarterfinals is something that is certainly not out of the club’s reach.
A quick refresh to the USMNT depth chart that now reflects a couple moves that become official January 1. There will be a more in-depth update following the late-January to early-February international break.
No real changes to the CF position, all eyes on Pepi to see where he lands in this winter transfer window, with all signs pointing to joining John Brooks at Wolfsburg. Dike also could be on the move, multiple teams in England reportedly have reached out for a loan, but Orlando City seems to be set on a transfer or nothing.
Cole Bassett has been added to the LW FTF as he made his senior team debut against Bosnia & Herzegovina, scoring the winner in the match. He is still just 20 so leaving him as a future option until he makes an appearance in a non-friendly. I also updated Yaya Toure’s name to his given name of Dantouma as he seems to be using that more as he makes the European tryout tour. He could be on the move this January.
Moved Jordan Morris from LW to RW as he can play either side competently but there just isn’t the same depth on the right. He looked good in his return to the USMNT, making numerous impressive runs against B&H. I have also moved Gioacchini ahead of Arriola as his performance in France is deserving of a boost. Cowell also made his debut against B&H, making some quality runs but showing his youth too as he gave the ball away too easily.
Caden Clark should be ending his loan with NYRB and heading to Germany to join Tyler Adams at Leipzig. Getting run there will quickly make him a must use for the USMNT and the FTF tag could fall off soon. The big news is the addition of Richard Ledezma who is finally back from his ACL tear and starting to get run again. Would not be surprised to see him get a call up in the next international break.
No changes to the RCMs, although Sebastian Lletget’s run with the LA Galaxy has ended with 158 appearances signing with the New England Revolution.
Johnny Cardoso was impressive in his return to the senior team. He didn’t have any real impact moments, but he may have been the most impressive starter in the match against B&H. Tanner Tessmann could be moving up here soon. He is getting plenty of run with Venezia playing alongside Gianluca Busio, which could help him get more run with the national team. Taylor Booth is added as a FTF here, although I am not sold on the position. He could be CDM, he could be the RCM, he has seen time at right wing and right back. Basically, I liken him to a utility infielder in baseball, can play wherever you need him to and be serviceable.
There aren’t any changes here….yet. George Bello got the start and, as much as I want him to be a thing, he just isn’t there. Meanwhile, Jonathan Gomez is finally making his move to Spain after becoming the first ever USL Championship player to see action with the senior team. It was his work and skill that led to the Bassett goal and I fully expect to drop the FTF tag very soon.
Added Brooks Lennon after he looked solid in his senior team debut, although he was a bit all over the place and Johnny regularly had to fall back to fill into the hole left by him. Bryan Reynolds got the call up which was good to see, but he is still seemingly a forgotten man at Roma. I also updated Shaq Moore as Tenerife is not in La Liga, but LaLiga 2.
A couple changes to the LCB as Henry Kessler looked good and has made the list while Kobi Henry getting the call up, despite not playing, makes him worthy of a FTF tag.
Possibly the most notable change is Walker Zimmerman jumping ahead of John Brooks. Quite frankly, Zimmerman has looked really good for the USMNT while Brooks has struggled with Wolfsburg and appears to have lost a step. This is a battle that is worth watching between now and November.
Couple changes at keeper, although the main focus will be the number one, a battle may have opened up for the third keeper to make the WC roster. Horvath has been riding the pine quite a bit for Nottingham Forest while Sean Johnson just helped NYCFC to the MLS Cup, including surviving multiple trips to PKs. John Pulskamp was called up to the national team but didn’t dress, so he is added as a FTF as he is worth keeping an eye on.
There’s a quote attributed to Charles Baudelaire, “The greatest trick the devil ever pulled was convincing the world he didn’t exist.”
Well, the MLB Players Association may have once again managed to achieve its equal by convincing the virtual unanimity of baseball fans that the owners are the ones solely to blame for the lockout. Then again, your average MLB fan is an easy mark. We do, after all, cheer for the players to perform on the field, not the owners. And when we don’t get that, it must be the evil owners’ collective fault, right?
Now, before you begin to interpret this as some kind of sympathy piece on the plight of the MLB franchise owner, let’s clear a couple of things up. The owners are in fact a greedy bunch. They absolutely want to pay players as little as they have to. But what business owner doesn’t? Why do you think the guy who owns the local pub pays his service staff minimum wage or close to it? Because people will work for it. Same thing with the local MacDonald’s franchise owner. Same thing with the hardware store. Same thing with the insurance company.
Let me tell you a story for context. Years ago, I was working for an insurance company, making about 60 grand a year. I wasn’t sad about it. It was a decent job, I had a decent boss, great friends at the office, a short commute, most things you could want in a job when you’re fairly young with not a ton of responsibilities. Then my decent boss left for greener pastures. Then the creative director of my department did too. I inherited the entirety of his role, but with no bump in title or pay. Ok, I thought. I will prove that I can handle this, and THEN the bumps will come. So I worked my ass off. Then our coordinator, the guy whose sole responsibility was to ship stuff where it needed to go, made so many mistakes that he was eventually stripped of all responsibility. Why wasn’t he fired? Well, he was the NEW boss’s first hire, and the new boss was terrified of looking bad on that, and just about everything else. (He was otherwise a decent fella who treated those who reported to him nicely. And sadly, raises were not approved by him – those went through his boss.) Guess who had to take that job over, while the coordinator’s role was reduced to watching old boxing matches on YouTube, and occasionally representing the department at an event (a role in which, to be fair, he was excellent). You guessed it. Suddenly, my job I enjoyed was wearing on me. The overtime was oppressive, and I admittedly didn’t handle the stress as well as I could have. I once again asked for a raise, and was told I needed to improve certain areas of my performance to justify it, despite consistently excellent annual reviews. Fast forward a couple of years, my wife and I are expecting our first child. I once again ask for a raise, and am told that my request would be reviewed at my annual review. My child is soon born, and my insurance premiums go up by $400 a month. I cut back my overtime so I can actually be a father to my newborn. They hire a new person that reports to me, but gets paid $4500 a year more than I do. At review, it’s held against me that I cut back my overtime. “Questionable dedication to the company” were the words used. Did I mention the creative director that left a while back had a salary of $115,000 a year? So, way too late, which is absolutely my fault, I decide to leave. I will find a new job so my growing family can maintain a roof over its head. So I did. Within a few months, I got an offer for a position with a new company paying approximately $17,000 a year more, with superior insurance benefits for $450 a month LESS than at the current place. For the final time, I went directly to the VP who approved the raises for my department and told him the exact number I needed to earn. He laughed at me and said, “We value your contributions but you have no leverage to ask for that kind of raise. You have a family to support and you have a stable job here. If you want to keep it stable, you should probably be more self-aware of your situation.” So I handed him my letter of resignation. I anticipated his response, maybe not verbatim, but the end result anyway. If I was wrong and he agreed with me, I could always shred it and no one would know. But that isn’t what happened.
Why did I tell you that story? Because nearly everyone has one like it. Nearly everyone has worked somewhere where they are underpaid, taken for granted, underappreciated, pick your adjective and change some of the details, and that is likely YOUR story. Maybe you handled it better than I did. Maybe you realized your situation more quickly than I did. But the majority of people just take it (like I did for far too long) because they fear change, value stability, whatever you want to call it. And these same people are up in arms that owners don’t want to pay guys who make ten million a year, twice that. They are up in arms that the league minimum is hovering around half a million, instead of twice that. Because how is a rookie in his early 20s supposed to survive on only half a million? How can any player in the entirety of baseball claim they are underpaid with a straight face? Yes, I know, some guy who outperforms the average player but earns less than him can technically, and by definition, argue it. But let’s get real.
I digress. Let’s take a look at why virtually all the arguments in favor of the players with this lockout are trash.
There are no small market teams. ALL owners are BILLIONAIRES!
False and true. There are small market teams. It’s an easy calculation of revenue. What do the Kansas City Royals get in revenue annually compared to the Yankees or Dodgers? Fan attendance? Jersey sales? I mean, I could do the research and get you the exact dollar amount, but why bother? We both know the result of that search, Mr. or Mrs. Reader. But are all owners billionaires? Yeah, maybe in terms of net worth. But most owners of MLB franchises are not just owners of those franchises. Their MLB franchise is ONE of their assets – one of their business ventures. And they are under no obligation to run it at a loss. Rich people got rich by running businesses at a profit, and investing wisely. The notion that they should abandon those business principles because some teams are perennially shitty is absurd. They are in this to make money. Just like the shitty owners at your job that could pay you $5 an hour more and not even notice it on their bottom lines, but don’t. Why? Because they don’t have to.
Minor league conditions for players are unlivable!
YES! Great energy there. And the majority of MLB owners really are dog shit for how they approach minor league compensation, housing, nutrition, etc. The problem is, you don’t care about that. There are organizations out there like Advocates for Minor Leaguers fighting the good fight to improve lives for those players. But when you suddenly posit this as an argument against owners, it’s disingenuous because all you care about is your MLB team’s owner ponying up enough money to compete for elite free agents. So kindly save the virtue signaling.
I don’t have a pithy quote for this but this is for the advanced statistics and metrics nerds.
Full disclosure, to a degree I am one of these nerds. But without fail, the loudest advocates for the players are the Moneyball believers that will denigrate your right to fandom if you don’t adopt WRC+ as the be all end all of metrics when it comes to an offensive player’s value. But when suddenly that metric and other ones like it for pitching and what have you become the justification for teams paying rookies the league minimum instead of mediocre veterans tens of millions, where does that leave you? On an island. Without an argument that holds water. Can’t have it both ways, pal.
Owners exploit guys like Wander Franco with below market deals when they could be worth so much more!
Sure. Exploiting them with 200 million dollar contracts. A kid who came from nothing will now, no matter what happens, will be able to provide for his great great great grandchildren is being exploited. No matter if he suffers a horrible career ending injury, he will have 200 million dollars to live off of. Sure, you can make an argument that the Braves got a ridiculous bargain with Ozzie Albies and his 35 million dollar contract. I agree wholeheartedly. But he chose guaranteed generational financial security in the immediate with the potential for hundreds of millions more in free agency while still youngish over gambling on…what? Staying healthy so he could get hundreds of millions a few years earlier? People making $12 an hour at O’Reilly’s Auto Parts are making these arguments. Hashtag perspective and shit.
I pay $16 for a beer at the stadium! So my owner can pinch pennies!?
No, asshole. You pay $16 for a beer because Max Scherzer can make $45 million a year. And look, I don’t begrudge Scherzer that money. This is baseball economy, he’s in the top three pitchers of this generation, and he earned it. But let’s be honest. Does Scherzer NEED that money? Is he hurting? What if, hypothetically, there was a salary cap in place, and the max he could make was $20 million a year? The vast majority of Major League Baseball players will serve the highest bidder, regardless. They’ll tell you tales about wanting to win and this and that. But let’s be honest. There are maybe 8 teams that have a chance to win the World Series in 2022. All of them would gladly pay Scherzer $20 million to pitch for them. The Mets have zero chance of winning the World Series. They will struggle to make the playoffs to begin with. Scherzer is a man who is trying to maximize his own personal value. Just like the owners…
I just care about baseball…
No you don’t. Shut the fuck up. You are after Twitter clout, because that one woman you have your creepy eye on will finally give you attention if you virtue signal enough. If what you wanted was baseball on the field, you would advocate for adults on both sides (who make more money in one year than you will in your lifetime) to meet in good faith and reach amicable conclusions.
Hey man, underpaid is underpaid!
No. It isn’t. Teachers are underpaid. Firefighters are underpaid. Grown men playing a child’s game that will make them millionaires, in many cases hundreds of times over, are not underpaid. They work part time. Six months out of the year. And before you hit me with the, “oh it’s a year round thing, they have to stay in shape!” Seriously, shut the fuck up. We ALL need to stay healthy and in shape if we don’t want to die early. It’s working out for an hour a day, a few days a week.
In conclusion…
The owners are greedy bastards. The players are greedy bastards. You make five figures. You’re arguing in favor of making your own parking, ticket, beer and memorabilia prices go up. For the love of God… just stop.
And hey, now that I’ve pissed you off, follow me on Twitter at @thestainsports. I love you! Thanks for reading.
The center of the defense is the last line of defense, the USMNT has long had big bodies back there from Alexi Lalas, to Oguchi Onyewu, to John Brooks, and goalkeeper has long been one of the biggest strengths of the team, but it might the center of the back line/GK just might be the biggest weakness of today’s USMNT.
Summary: Before this summer, Miles Robinson was just another name among the center backs for the USMNT, but the Gold Cup changed all that. He played every minute of the tournament and came through with the extra time cup winning header. He has been a staple in the lineup for the World Cup qualifiers until a second yellow vs. Mexico landed him with a one match ban vs. Jamaica. McKenzie can play either center back spot, but he is best as depth at the LCB and can even fill in at LB in a pinch. Richards was the name many USMNT fans were keeping an eye on to make the jump from prospect to the starting man, but Robinson’s ascension but a hold on that. One could argue for Richards ahead of McKenzie, and I think he will leap from him come next summer/fall, but for now he is the third guy for me. Miazga and Ream aren’t real factors currently, but Miazga has made 22 appearances with the national team, while Ream has been on the squad during WCQ and plays next to Antonee Robinson with Fulham, so the familiarity combined with experience could work in Ream’s favor.
Summary: Brooks has been the rock for this club for a number of years not, but he has looked a step slow with Wolfsburg, especially in European competition, and Zimmerman just put together the best international break of his career. While this position seemed to be as much of a sure thing as Pulisic being a starter, there is now real questions as to who the best option is. Long is very much a similar case to Tim Ream as both are veterans of the USMNT despite not really having much of an impact in recent memory. Che may be best suited to be a right back, but there are already so many quality options there I had to include him as a FTF at right center back. He may have been the best player on the pitch for the U20s in Mexico on this break and may not be for the “future” for long. He was on the roster for the Gold Cup just didn’t see any playing time. I could see that changing come late qualifying.
Summary: There may not be a more competitive battle for the number one, literally and figuratively, than the battle between Steffen and Turner for the starting keeper. Turner is the starting keeper for the best team in MLS, while Steffen struggles to get playing time with Manchester City. The lack of playing time was what had Turner with the slight edge, but Steffen hot his chance in a Carbao Cup match and came up big in PKs, then had a very good showing this break, so the needle may be leaning slightly in his direction now. Horvath and Johnson have both seen time as the third option recently with Johnson again a MLS starter, Horvath was recently a Champions League keeper with Brugge, but really battled with Simon Mignolet for time, so he is now in the Championship. Guzan is the old vet and there is definitely a value to having that as an option, and he saw time with the first team this past summer, as did Hamid, although neither have received a call during qualifying. Don’t let the goals against in the Revelations Cup fool you, the center backs let him down in that tournament, he actually looked good despite the score lines. He may be the main starter with Chicago come next season, and I would expect him to get some interest from European clubs at that point. Odunze was a surprise inclusion back in November of 2020, but when you have a guy with that much promise and is eligible for the USA, England, Canada, and Nigeria, you need to stay on good terms with him. He does not actually have a senior appearance at either the club or international level, but he is a freak in terms of size, 6’7”, and is under contract with Leicester City currently playing for their youth club.
For the defense, I am splitting it up into two posts, wide defenders and central defenders, with the goal keepers included in with central defenders. There is a very clear difference in depth on the right and left side of the defense. In all reality, the top four right backs would probably be the number two left back, but they are natural right backs so I am keeping them in their natural position for this list. With that, here it is:
Summary: It is a little odd to have player on a team in the second tier the number one guy at this point, but Antonee Robinson is currently playing in the Championship but is easily the best left back for the USMNT. His runs are impressive allowing him to turn defense into offense in a flash, but he can get caught too far up field quite a bit. He leaves a lot of work for the left center back, but he is a key cog in the USMNT wheel. Bello is a guy I want to be good enough to push Robinson, he just isn’t there yet and may not ever quite get there, but there are flashes. I am happy to see Vines getting some action in Belgium but hasn’t earned himself a regular role there yet after being a common name in the starting eleven for the Colorado Rapids. Gomez was referenced in the first post of this series with his brother Johan as a center forward. He is a big one as he has really impressed with Louisville City, shaking a defender to the ground and drawing a hand ball in the box that led to the game winning PK that sent Louisville to the conference semi-finals, but he has six appearances with the USA U16s, one with the Mexico U16s, three with the USA U17s, and two with the Mexico U20s earlier this year. He could very well be the second best true LB in a year or two as he is heading to Real Sociedad B after Louisville’s run ends, so getting him committed to the UNMNT senior side is important. Paredes may be a bit of a stretch to call him a left back as he is really a left mid and has seen time at left wing and left back with D.C. United. To me his future with the national team is as left back currently, although there are reports Salzburg is interested in going after him if Aaronson eventually transfers to a larger club.
Summary: This might be the deepest position at the USNT level and one of only two I don’t have anyone tabbed as a FTF. Dest is the unquestioned starter when healthy, but that has been a struggle for him this year which is why we have seen a lot of Yedlin. Yedlin bring a fearless approach to the position that is both a benefit and a potential liability if he gets too aggressive. Cannon is a guy I would like to get a little more run but he just has two guys two heavily entrenched in the spot ahead of him. Scally finally got his a call up to the senior team after really shining for Monchengladbach, but did not see any time on the field in either match. He would technically qualify as a FTF given he is 18 and hasn’t technically debuted for the senior team, but he is simply too good to be counted as a future option because he is a legit option now. Moore is a guy that regularly gets overlooked but looks good whenever he gets a shot and is competing in La Liga. Reynolds was on track to compete with Yedlin and Cannon to be the second man in line but has seen extremely limited playing time since moving to Roma and his stock is simply tanking at this point.
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