Usually, I make at least some effort to keep my blatant homerism in check. No such promises today. The regular season is right around the corner and optimism is high across MLB… except for maybe Pittsburgh, where it seems the Pirates are destined to suck regardless of what they do. And then there’s the Cubs… okay, so maybe not ALL across MLB.  Without further ado.

1) Dodgers – This team is practically guaranteed to go 162-0… No? Ok fine. I had them finishing second in the West up until about three days ago when it dawned on me: The Guggenheim Group is pretty much convinced it can buy its way out of anything. That, and Tim Lincecum as a starter is done, and that’s going to severely dent LA’s closest competitor’s chances. Make no mistakes, this team has flaws and the floorboards creak a little bit, but on the surface they would appear to be less flawed than the other teams here.

2) Giants – They’re still a pretty good team, and just locked up superstar Buster Posey for the next 9 years. They can pitch, and they can field for the most part. But man, they have overachieved. Angel Pagan and Marco Scutaro are capable big league players, but the cloud 9 thing is going to have to evaporate at some point. They should still contend for a wild card but a division championship probably won’t happen. They don’t have the resources to match the Dodgers at the trade deadline.

3) D Backs – I probably could have lumped Colorado and San Diego in here too. I decided to give Arizona the nod because they have pitching from top to bottom. The line up has some big time holes, especially with Justin Upton’s departure. Chris Young’s exodus won’t hurt quite as much, but there was still some power and speed from him, and the Cody Ross/injured Adam Eaton combo is probably not going to make up for it. Kudos for locking up young stud Paul Goldschmidt though. That’s a good move for the franchise.

4) Padres – I nearly had them as a dark horse contender for a wildcard. And then I remembered, Yasmani Grandal was a bad boy. And then I also remembered, they’re relying on Jason Marquis to be the staff ace. Don’t get me wrong, they’re loaded with young talent. But talent doesn’t translate to wins, and wins are what get you to the postseason.

5) Rockies – Here’s your $66,000 question. Who is gonna get anyone out? Tulo and Cargo are two of the game’s finest talents, but they could each knock in 4 runs a game and it won’t matter if the staff gives up 20.

Random thought of the day: The more I think about WAR (Wins Above Replacement), the more I hate it. There are some very good saber metrics, and there are some that are just ludicrous. I hate it, I hate it, I hate it…

So I’m sitting here on St. Patrick’s day, sober for now, and it got me thinking. At nearly 35 years old, do I need an excuse to drink? After all, I am long past the legal threshold for purchasing booze. Essentially, I can get plowed any time I want, right? Not that it would be a liver-friendly approach to life, but that’s beside the point. Still, going on Facebook this morning, I saw literally a hundred posts about it being St. Patty’s day, and party this and drinking that… I doubt more than a handful of them have any Irish at all in them. It’s like the knuckleheads well into adulthood that still get excited when the clock hits 20 minutes after four o’ clock. “420, man! Yeah…”

I have this particular friend who wears the fact that are a hardcore stoner like it’s a war medal. This friend is only a couple of years younger than me, so essentially the same generation, a parent, and a spouse. Hey, if you have a lot on your plate in life and you need to blaze it in your garage just to cope a little, fine. I probably drink a little more than the Surgeon General would recommend (ok, more than a little) and a lot of it has to do with the stress of life. I could find a more constructive outlet, I suppose, but let’s face it, I’m too lazy and while we’re being honest, I like beer. I struggle to understand many things. Bravado about getting plastered or baked into a catatonic state is just one of them.

What does this have to do with the NL Central, you ask? Not a thing. I was just sitting here watching the Dodgers and Brewers play a preseason game and it reminded me I needed to get to this.

1) St. Louis Cardinals: They’ve been the top dog in this division for a while now. They hit incredibly well, pitch well enough, and are incredibly well managed by Mike Matheny. I don’t see anything going wrong enough for them this season to finish anywhere but first in the Central. The loss of Cris Carpenter and Rafael Furcal may be a hurdle that has to be cleared, but 95 wins are within reach. If they do have an achilles heel, it’s that Mitchell Boggs and Jason Motte are vulnerable at the back end of the bullpen. They both throw in the high 90s but neither fastball moves. Don’t get me wrong, they’re not terrible. Just not much better than average in my book. Trevor Rosenthal on the other hand…

2) Cincinnati Reds: There’s a lot of talent on this team too, but they’re managed by Dusty Baker… Wouldn’t that give you reason for concern? Votto, Phillips, Frazier, Bruce, and Choo make for a really potent offensive core. But two things on this team are like clockwork. Baker will mismanage the pitching staff, and start Ryan Hanigan over the superior Devin Mesoraco. Doesn’t matter how good the talent is, it has to be managed properly and I like Baker as a person, but the game has passed him by.

3) Pittsburgh Pirates: Will their historic streak of losing seasons finally come to an end? Possibly. They still won’t make the playoffs though. There just isn’t enough there. There are some great reasons to be optimistic, mainly the continued development of Andrew McCutcheon, Starling Marte, the impending arrival of Jameson Taillon, and others. But there is just too much that has to go right. Allstar closer Joel Hanrahan is gone, replaced presumably by… Marc Melancon? Clint Barmes still going to be the shortstop? If this team is going to surpass two legitimately good teams, it can’t have so many questions.

4) Milwaukee Brewers: No, I’m not ranking them this low because they’re getting grilled by the Dodgers in a meaningless game. It just really appears they got thin. There’s not much behind Yovani Gallardo in the rotation. John Axford anchors a thin bullpen. Cory Hart is hurt to start the year, and Ryan Braun may very realistically end up finally getting caught doping, and not having a procedural SNAFU and Bud Selig’s convenient presence at the top of the MLB totem pole let it get swept under the rug. All teams have weak links, but it appears the Brew Crew has more than most.

5) Chicago Cubs: I don’t doubt that Theo Epstein will eventually bring in the right personnel to right the ship here. But this stuff takes time. More time, in fact, than it will take to lock up Starlin Castro through his arbitration eligibility and perhaps the first couple years of free agency. He’d fetch an absolute king’s ransom in return from a shortstop needy team. Matt Garza, if that arm is sound, is another valuable piece. Look for Theo to mail this season in and load up on blue chippers. Think I’m kidding? Nate Schierholtz may lead this team in RBIs this season. Probably not… but he might.

Anyway, in conclusion, I managed to finish this entire article without even getting into a single beer. Don’t get me wrong, I will probably have one (or more) today. It is, after all, St. Patty’s day.

These are some of my favorite columns to write, previewing how a MLB division will turn out after 162 games. Invariably, you will have teams like Baltimore and Oakland who overachieve, and others like the Angels who underachieve, and it will make me look inept seven months later. But still, I love it. Without further ado.

1) Atlanta Braves: That pitching… whoa that pitching. No staff scares me as much as this one does. They now figure to have Kris Medlen healthy for a whole year, and he could win the Cy Young. Their bullpen is nearly incomparable, thanks largely to the nearly unhittable Craig Kimbrel. And then they went out and got the Upton brothers. Do I need to say more? 100 wins is very well within reach for them.

2) Washington Nationals: A lot depends on the health of two key guys here; Steven Strasburg and Ryan Zimmermann. They figure to take the kid gloves off their ace this year, so they’ll have him for more than 140 innings, assuming his elbow withstands the rigors of his high impact delivery. Zimmermann is elite but has somewhat of a history with injuries. If both guys stay healthy, they will probably contend with Atlanta for the division crown until ultimately fading and settling for a wild card. If one or both get hurt, the sledding gets tougher.

3) Philadelphia Phillies: There is some reason for optimism here. Lots of big names. Hamels, Lee, Halladay, Howard, Utley, Rollins. Now, remove Hamels, and what do you have? A bunch of guys who are either getting older or can’t stay fit. Now, if Charlie Manuel can somehow figure out a way to give his guys enough rest, be a bit careful with Halladay and Lee’s innings, and get good work from his pen, they might be in the wild card hunt. Ultimately though, I don’t think it will happen. Guys will get hurt, Carlos Ruiz will regress a bit from his Johnny Bench performance of 2012, and Papelbon will struggle at the back end of the pen.

4) New York Mets: The level falls off dramatically. The Mets won’t win 70 games, but there are a few good things happening there. Matt Harvey is a real stud, and hopefully Johan Santana will be healthy enough to lead a rotation that also includes the capable Jonathon Niese and free agent signee, Shawn Marcum. David Wright is excellent we all know, but that’s where we get iffy. I think if they get Jordany Valdespin more at bats, he’ll prove to be a good player. And that shouldn’t be hard, finding him at bats I mean, since the only position he can’t play is pitcher. But there’s just not enough big league talent here.

5) Miami Marlins: Here’s the good: Giovanni Stanton. Logan Morrison’s Twitter rants. Here’s the bad: Everything else, with apologies to Ricky Nolasco, and one of the all time good guys in the game, Juan Pierre. And you know what? Good. Until Jeffery Loria is no longer in charge, I wouldn’t be the least bit sad if the Marlins never won another game. He’s a con artist and a <censored>. What!? I can’t say,”<censored>?” Aw, come on, that’s some <censored> bull <censored>!!! Anyway, one last thing. I’m offering odds that Stanton gets traded by the deadline, along Morrison, and the truly start from scratch.

I predict a couple of MLB awards from this division too. For one, the aforementioned Medlen will win 20, I think, and win the Cy Young. And I think Justin Upton wins comeback player of the year… from a year that while beneath his standards, was not awful.

Did I miss anything? No? Good. I still can’t believe I can’t say, “<censored>.”

 

Here at The Stain, you can always count on each of us to post a mock draft… and each of to get about 10% of the picks correctly. This is, of course, because we are like everyone else, in that we are sans crystal ball. As usual, my projections are based on what I would do, not what I think the team will do. Now that we’ve gotten the disclaimer out of the way, on to the good stuff.

1) Kansas City: Sharrif Floyd, DT, Florida: He was highly regarded before the combine, and then he went off. The Chiefs traded for Alex Smith so any QB is not going to happen. They tagged Brandon Albert so Joeckel is unlikely. That leaves the best available player strategy. Many think that’s Floyd now.

2) Jacksonville: Luke Joeckel, OT, Texas A & M: Whether it’s Blaine Gabbert, Chad Henne, or someone else taking the snaps, they won’t be able to throw from their backs. The best offensive lineman in the draft makes sense here.

3) Oakland: Eric Fisher, OT, Central Michigan: Just as good as Joeckel, Fisher would help provide Carson Palmer much needed protection, so he can see the world from another angle than from the turf.

4) Philadelphia: Star Lotulelei, DT, Utah: This guy’s got heart… see what I did there? Philly just cut basically their whole defensive line, and unless there really is something to his heart condition, he’s a stud and makes perfect sense here.

5) Detroit Lions: Dee Milliner, CB, Alabama: The Lions have a LOT of needs on defense, none bigger than cornerback, and they’ll be thrilled if Milliner falls to them… which is not guaranteed by any stretch. He could go number one.

6) Cleveland: Kenny Vaccaro, S, Texas: This is higher than most people have him, but I don’t understand why. The Browns have defensive holes and Vaccaro defends every part of his safety responsibilities very very well. Practically a can’t miss pick.

7) Arizona: Lane Johnson, OT, Oklahoma: No team had a worse tackle situation than Arizona last year. No point in drafting a quarterback if you can’t keep him upright. And Johnson represents an immediate big improvement.

8) Buffalo: Dion Jordan, LB, Oregon: Buffalo’s defense wasn’t nearly as good as it was expected to be last season. There are other problems there besides linebacker, but Jordan is an obvious quick improvement. Sometimes you shouldn’t overthink things.

9) NY Jets: Bjoern Werner, DE, Florida St.: The Jets didn’t do everything poorly last season. Just most things. Including rushing the passer. Werner would help from day 1.

10) Tennesee: Jarvis Jones, LB, Georgia: The Titans defense is not good enough to stop anyone if the opposing quarterback has time. Jones gets after it and should help Tennessee tighten up.  Get it? Tighten up? Because they’re the Titans? Anyone???

11) San Diego: Keenan Allen, WR, Cal: They do need line help but the best tackles are taken. Malcom Floyd and Danario Alexander are both good players but a real #1 receiver would probably help Philip Rivers recover some of his lost form.

12) Miami: Barkevious Mingo, DE, LSU: They were probably hoping for Allen, but Mingo is a nice consolation prize. There will be decent WR talent in the middle rounds.

13) Tampa Bay: Alec Ogletree, LB, Georgia: Would go higher if not for off the field issues. Terrific player should help a shoddy defense.

14) Carolina: Sylvester Williams, DT, North Carolina: If not him, than Tavon Austin. But the Panthers need to get better on the defensive front, or it won’t matter if Cam Newton scores 5 tds a game.

15) New Orleans: Sheldon Richardson, DT, Missouri: Not a lot of middle ground with the Saints. Their great in places, terrible in others. The D line is terrible, enter Richardson. Voila. Middle ground.

16) St. Louis: Chance Warmack, G, Alabama: The Rams are desperate for guard help… which virtually guarantees they’ll do something idiotic… like pick LSU punter Brad Wing. Not hating on Wing, but…

17) Pittsburgh: Ezekiel Ansah, LB, BYU: Tons of potential, and they could use a young LB. Tavon Austin, again, is an option here if he’s available.

18) Dallas: Jonathan Cooper, G, North Carolina: Terrific player slots right into an area of immense need for Dallas. Uprade the line and see Tony Romo FINALLY become a superstar? Probably not, but you need to upgrade the line here anyway.

19) NY Giants: Damontre Moore, DE, Texas A & M: Stock has dropped a little bit but unless I missed something and he has completely tanked, pass rusher extraordinaire should be on the Giants’ list of wants. It’s kind of emblematic of their team, isn’t it?

20) Chicago: DJ Fluker, OT, Alabama: I’m surprised nobody else is calling this one. Or are they? Effed if I know… but what I do know is that tackle is a big problem area for the Bears and they should jump at the opportunity to get Fluker if they can.

21) Cincinnati: Eddie Lacy, RB, Alabama: A little high for Lacy? Well, the Bengals could use a running back. Maybe it is high, but Lacy certainly will not be around when Cincy picks in round two.

22) St. Louis: Matt Elam, S, Florida: This is, of course, if they are smart. Guard and safety are their two biggest needs. Sure, they’ll probably pick Tyler Eiffert or some other player who, while decent, doesn’t address any need, because they’re the Rams. Elam is small but a terrific all around safety and immediate long term fix.

23) Minnesota: Tavon Austin, WR, West Virginia: Logic would dictate that he wasn’t around this late… but they could use a complement for Percy Harvin. Check that. They NEED one.

24) Indianapolis: Menelik Watson, OT, Florida St.: If you had Andrew Luck as your quarterback for the next decade plus, wouldn’t you want to protect him. Watson, originally from England, is raw, but a true talent who could end up being one of the best values in the draft.

25) Seattle: Tyler Eifert, TE, Notre Dame: Russell Wilson is the real deal, and mobile. So a tight end who does everything pretty well would make sense. Seattle is in a pretty good position, though, of not having any massive needs, so pretty much anything goes here.

26) Green Bay: Jonathan Cyprien, S, Florida International: Great talent from a small school. Not sure the Packers desperately need a safety as much as they need O line help and a running game, but nobody at those positions makes sense here.

27) Houston: Kawann Short, DT, Purdue: With all the D line talent, Short gets lost in the shuffle… get it? Short??? Never mind. The Texans could use some sturdiness at defensive tackle. Short is a risk because I’ve read he comes with minor character issues, but the Texans are a good team who can afford to gamble.

28) Denver: John Jenkins, DT, Georgia: Jenkins needs some fine tuning but he’s absolutely massive and like Houston, they’re good and don’t need too many upgrades.

29) New England: Manti Te’o, LB, Notre Dame: Ok, I admit it. I put Te’o here to mess with Shaun. But think about it. A stupid hoax and an unfairly criticized 40 time is going to mean he drops. Maybe this far. Any team at 29 who can somehow fit a linebacker into their draft strategy here would be foolish to not take him.

30) Atlanta: Zach Ertz, TE, Stanford: Whether or not Tony Gonzalez, the greatest tight end, and one of the best players period to ever play the game, retires or not, he ain’t gonna be around forever. Why not pick a good successor candidate? It makes sense. The Falcons don’t have too many needs.

31) San Francisco: Desmond Trufant, CB, Washington: I think they’d have prefered a safety here but nobody left warrants a first rounder. Trufant is a real talent, and underrated. No team’s personnel department is as smart as the Niners’… GOD it pains me to say that… so you can rest assured that whoever they pick will be a smart choice.

32) Baltimore: Cordarelle Patterson, WR, Tennessee: They just made Joe Flacco a gazillionaire. They’ll probably want to make sure that whenever Anquan Boldin departs/retires, it doesn’t leave a gaping hole in the offense.

How many of these picks do I think I will get right? Hopefully all. Most likely, three to five. Let me know what you think.

1) Oakland A’s – They really don’t have a single superstar, but the thing the A’s have that no other team seems to have, is 25 men that contribute. Cespedes proved he is for real and Reddick broke out. They added more outfielders, signed a stud defensive shortstop from Japan, and added Jed Lowrie to bring some pop to the infield. They have a bullpen that is underrated and a pitching staff that is as good as any in baseball. Brett Anderson and Bartolo Colon are real front end starters, Jarrod Parker proved he has what it takes to be a future #1, Tommy Milone showed he can go a full season keeping batters off balance with his mix of speeds, and A.J. Griffin was almost untouchable down the stretch. The mix of power, speed, and pitching in the giant ballpark in Oakland will have the A’s atop the division yet again.

2) Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim – I really don’t like what the Angels have done. Losing Grienke without really adding a solid arm. They sign Josh Hamilton, but he is just as much a clubhouse cancer as he is a benefit on the field. I think the loss of uber utility man Macier Izturis will be a bigger loss than people realize. All that being said, they have too much talent to not be in the hunt for the division or at least Wild Card come mid-September.

3) Texas Rangers – They need to make a deal. Profar is legit. I think they should reach out to St. Louis about Oscar Taveras or Detroit about Castellanos in exchange for Elvis Andrus. The loss of Hamilton won’t really be that big a loss. I still like their rotation, Darvish will be a Cy Young contender, but I am just not sure they have enough in what I believe to be in the running for most talented division in baseball (along with the AL East).

4) Seattle Mariners – The laughing stocks of the West will surprise some people this year. I really wanted to list them at second in the division, but couldn’t justify it with the rosters of the Angels and Rangers, but I wouldn’t be shocked if they are in the mix for playoffs late September. They added a ton of power options in Morales, Ibanez, and Morse. They moved in the fences, and they have as talented a group of pitching prospects as there is in baseball. If the rookie pitchers make the bigs this year and pitch like the hype, the Mariners will be a hard team to beat.

5) Houston Astros – The Astros first year in the American league just might be the worst season a team has ever had. Their big league roster can be beaten by some AAA teams. That being said, I love what they are doing in Houston. The Astros are building from the ground up. They are stockpiling young arms. Have a future slugger coming up through their system in Jonathon Singleton, granted he will be serving a 50 game suspension for smoking weed. They secured a shortstop with the first overall pick. Plus they have the top pick this year, and should have it next year as well. They will be terrible this year, but will be competing with Seattle and Oakland at the top of the division in just a few years.